McCain functionally sold out to the Republican base. His image of moderation and being a "maverick" is worthless now. I really liked the guy when he ran in 2000 and was absolutely psyched at the possibility of him winning. But this new McCain is just a spineless drone like every other politician and he finally caved into the Republican majority. It sucks that the numbers of moderate democrats and republicans are shrinking by the minute thanks to a polarizing and poisonous atmosphere in this country and in Congress itself.
Obama is such a powerful orator - it will be hard for Hillary to hit him too hard. When one canidate is so much more dominant charismatically then the other, they will win out. Charisma is the number one attribute in determining a president - and Obama has heaps of it - more then any other canidate out there. If he runs, I think he'll start as the dark-horse, but I think he'll win. His race will draw the publics eye and the media will adopt him as a darling - and just like that, it will be over.
That's how I see it. He has to want it, and I think he does. If Bill really came out and campaigned hard for Hillary, it would be a fun race to watch. If those two could somehow campaign together... wow. Keep D&D Civil.
I like Obama but I think its a sad commentary on the Democrats that a 2 year senator and 8 year state congressman is the biggest star and brightest hope of the Democratic party. While the Republicans are self destructing in scandal and ineptitude the Democrats aren't doing much to instill hope in the country.
Only problem is Hillary looks bad if Bills doing to much stuff in the spotlight. He demands too much attention, and she will be too easily labeled as riding his coattails. There's this whole thing with her, in which I suspect too many men feel threatened by a powerful woman, and will use any campaigning from bill as a clear sign that she needs him to help her win.... if she wants to project strength, she has to do it without Bill.... which brings up the obvious double standard..... nobody considered her as a political asset to bill that I recall, but no matter what she does, how many people are going to say that's she's there because of bill...
I think that is more a testament to Clinton than anything else. The last generation of leaders came up with CLinton and was/is eclipsed by him in many ways, accordingly you have to look outside his disciples (Gore, Hilary, other boomers) because they just wouldn't measure up. The democrats have always been about finding a figure who can rally the cause and send a message and make it sound dynamic. Look at their issues - say, environmentalism, fiscal security. These things require viscerally unpopular measures to implement like power conservation and tax increases- let's face it, at a basic impulsive level we all want to use tons of power and drive huge gas guzzling cars and have a big giant military with tons of guns and low taxes (even though many of those things are mutually exclusive). Accordingly they need a personality who can sell things that are unpopular and require short term sacrficies (environment) but have a positive long term outcome. The GOP (with Reagan being the exception that PROVES the rule here in a way) is more about the mission (the moral/religious mission of one half, and the $$$ mission of big business) who basically has a guy who can look good in a suit and read a script, also they seem to defer to hierarchy more. Their program (tax cuts, aggressive foreign policy) basically sells itself on an impulsive level to a lot of their voters because it doesn't require much if any individual sacrifice ; perhaps the only issue which is a tough sell (even internally) are the moral values issue which backlashes at times. An interesting contrast is here is to loook at what happened when Bush when he tried to "save" (and by save, I mean jettison) social security at arguably the height of republicn dominance in early 2005. It went over like a lead balloon because the impulsive choice wasn't really popular with people - there was no immediate payoff adn it just seemed like we were giving up something. Bush was nowhere near a good enough salesman to pull that off.
this is why i now think this election, and perhaps '08 will go in the favor of the democratic party. what has bush done to 1)lead b)get his message out there? clinton, and reagan both had their agendas in the congress pretty much all the time... and take a look back at 1994 when sweeping changes came in, what were the issues at hand? led by gingrich, they wanted smaller government (to eliminate dept. of no education, dept. of housing, dept. of no transportation, dept. of no power), they were for lower taxes, and term limits. where are all of those guys now? the ones that truely believed this message left after 1-2 terms, and now we're left with the guys that rode the coattails to get in, and now they're fat and happy at our expense. another thing, bush wants to be energy independent, but he's talking about technologies that are 25 yrs away, and haven't been talked about since carter was in (nuclear power, and solar power) set an agenda and push for it, rather than the never-ending "war on terror"... when was the last time he gave a speech that said anything other than the WoT? his social security policy flopped, fine, move on to the next task don't just give up completely he's managed to increase the size of the government, and increase spending, all while lowering taxes.... he accomplished 1 conservative ideal, while doing 2 of the worst possible moves a conservative can do.
Clinton wasn't a divisive president until Lewinsky. But Hillory Clinton would be very divisive, and I don't think would be good for the country. Before Clinton, it was Regan who was able to reach across and appeal to Democrats. So Bush has failed miserably and generally I think partisianship is a reflection of poor leadership. That's why Obama is attractive - because unlike Clinton or even Gore, he has much better ability to reach accross. Republicans will have to be very very careful in how the approach Obama as slip-ups may be construed as racism. So it will be interesting - I mean, I'd bet a wad of cash that some Republicans really muck up and make some inappropriate comments. On the repub side, you really only have Gulliani and McCain. I think no one else will be able to appeal to democrats. Obama will out class McCain easily. Gulliani has the 9/11 card. That's why hillary has no chance against him. Obama though can play to democrats strengths though - and in 2008, domestic issues may play stronge then the war on terrorism.
can you imagine obama being in the senate for 20 years being an lbj type force? does that not send chills? i realize that to be a president nowadays you have an uphill battle coming out of the congress due to the voting record. but i would love to have obama esque sentors. i think ford has a chance as well. though he's even more conservative than obama, his charisma/charm/eloquence/politics make him so damn good. i think he'll be the first black president. though it'd be nice if he's the second one too. i really am big on ford. i dont know if yall have seen his commercials...but just as a politician he is amazing or at least his people are. and he's barely in his mid 30s. imagine a conservative southern black democrat.
Doesn't Gulliani has some personal issues in his closet? Another point for Obama is, I think he could regain the moral high ground, the Repubs would have a hard time outflanking him on religion and the mainstream of the religious population might come to him as an alternative to the more extreme religious message of the Republicans. More Billy Grahmn than Pat Robertson.
Harold Ford, Jr. should be the face of the Democratic party. I know that his social life would raise some eyebrows, but his politics are impeccable. Harold Ford, Sr. was a great politician whose politics very closely matched the traditional conservative Democratic agenda. Ford, Jr.'s policies are just as good, but he's a much more exciting person. I agree with you that he has the best chance of becoming the first black man elected President (assuming Colin Powell doesn't run).
He does, but if his opponent is Hillary, then it's not like she can make character an issue in the campaign. I still don't see how Guiliani gets the nomination though. He's a social liberal(which I like, but won't play to the red states).
McCain has a lot bigger problem with his campaign prospects. McCain has never been successful at anything he's tried to change. The McCain-Feingold law is his biggest accomplishment as Senator. He attempted to clean up campaign financing and discourage big donations. He succeeded in increasing the number of big donations and hasn't cleaned up anything. McCain has the same chances of becoming President as Bob Dole did.
Obama just said on Meet the Press that he's considering running for President in 2008. He'll decide after November 7th...
Sorry, I should have put that "spoiler" thing on that. Oh, and I should be clear, Obama didnt go onto Meet the Press to announce a possible candidacy (or maybe he did), but Russert got it out of him. You'll know what I'm talking about towards the end. He was clear in his answer, however.
Don't worry about spoiler. It's not like I would watch Meet the Press for the cliffhangers anyway . I think when someone says something like that on television at this point in the game, it is most probable that they will run.
