Time to start Stro over Ho?

Obviously they have different roles, and other factors like strength of opponents need to be taken into account. My point is that if you ARE going to compare stats (as some have in this thread), it makes sense to "normalize" them.

Statistically, Swift has outperformed Howard. Whether this trend would continue if Swift started instead can't be known for certain unless we actually try it out. What I find bizarre is that our starting unit has been consistently outperformed by opposing starting units, and yet Van Gundy continues to stick with Howard. His +/- has been the worst on the team for any regular rotation player, by far, all season (-7.1 per 100 possession with him on the court, +5.8 per 100 possessions with him off the court).

Lonny Baxter played in far less minutes, and more often in "garbage time" than Swift. His stats are more obviously "skewed" than Stro's.

Huh? Chuck Hayes deserves more minutes, whether you want to look at it by his stats on the court, or the things he does that can't be measurely statistically. Maybe he has a bad attitude or is performing poorly in practices. But based on what I've seen, Van Gundy is dead wrong not to be giving him at least 20 minutes a game.

I don't think either player is conclusively a better defensive player than the other. They're both weak, in my opinion, but where Swift can learn to be a better team defensive player with time, Howard is what he is physically and that won't change.

A missed shot that results in a lost possession isn't much better than a turnover. And Howard misses a lot more shots than Swift. Plus, since most of his shots are mid-range jumpers, there's a much smaller chance they will be offensive rebounded.

 

With all due respect, Doc, you know Juwon isn't going to get any better. He's on the downside of his career. And he's just not quick enough. Him and Yao together is just terrible. I'm not saying Stro's the answer. I'm not enthralled with his goofy play either. But, it can't get any worse than Juwon.

HE HAS THE WORST +/- NUMBERS ON THE WHOLE TEAM. And he has played with Yao and TMac as much or more than anybody else this year. A significant portion of his minutes have been with Yao and TMac or at the very least with one or the other.

Here's a question for you:

Set aside salary considerations. In other wise, don't count salaries. What could Juwon be traded for? What could we get for him, salaries not included?

 

Great! Now we're getting somewhere. My point by using Baxter and Hayes tongue-in-cheek was to show that you can't just inflate those numbers over 40 minutes and conclusively say that a player will be that type of player over 40 mins. Of course I don't think Baxter is a great player, let's be serious.

Chuck Hayes does deserve more minutes, but I'm of the opinion there's more going on there than simply him not doing well enough. He blows coverages, too, but in his case I can say he's had less experience than a Stro in this league and has been given far fewer shots to stick around. But by the same token, I don't think Hayes will average 14 rebs a game consistently, so I can't use that 14 rebs/40 mins. and say "hey, look... he should be starting". Can he average even 12 rebs/game with added minutes? I don't know. Can he be a better player while not sacrificing points and rebs to the opposition? It's not all about one side of the ball, and that's what I'm getting at. We can point at what we're getting by granting a Stromile Swift more minutes, but you better be able to realize what we're losing, and what we're losing is often not reflected directly by any stat (in many cases).

I don't disagree with any of those statements, except for where Swift can learn to be better. Technically, you learn to be better in practice and by studying playbooks and working with coaches. When you get on that court, you display what you've learned - game time isn't training time. It's obvious Stro is having a hell of a time learning what he needs to learn. Just isolate yourself on him in most of these games - he is flat out lost on defense on many plays. JVG is not going to let a guy learn on the court at the expense of losing games - his goal is to win no matter if we've got 5 wins or 50 wins on the season. The other thing is that many of the issues with Stro here are the same issues he had in years with the Grizzlies under what? Two or three coaches? He's on something like his 3rd or 4th coach - what playbook/terminology can he understand? A month or two ago when he said he was still having problems learning terminology, that should've been the first clue for you guys that want him to play more. What do you expect to happen? Stro to magically learn plays during a game when he can't during practice when he has all the time in the world? If he can't get terminology down, he is a detriment to the team on the court.

I disagree until I can see one stat - where does Houston rank in terms of transition defense? A turnover can lead to fast break points more often than can a missed jumper (just a hunch). I'd be interested in seeing how we stack up against other teams in points given up per game on fast breaks. When you miss a shot, you can gather yourself and play d at the other end. Why is that important? Houston currently is just about tied for the best FG% defense in the NBA (.001 separating the top 3 teams). I'll take our defense on a contested jumper vs. us defending a fast break team like the Suns or Mavs. But like I said, I don't know where we rank in terms of transition d, so I'll put that qualifier in there. All I'm saying is it's not necessarily the same. I'm also willing to bet that JVG considers a turnover worse than a missed shot.

Moreso than ever, now that Yao is back, we need somebody that can fill the gaps and pop mid-range jumpers. The lane isn't always going to be there for our players unless we pull Yao out. Juwan's jumper is more geared towards this. Sure he has off days, but he has great days, too. He also took advantage of the time where he had starter (and beyond) minutes. Maybe Stro will wake up and learn to hold onto the ball or impress JVG because it obviously hasn't happened yet... and it wasn't for lack of opportunities earlier in the season.

 

Dr of Dunk, please give it up. The Stro Lovers and the Juwan "Haters" will never get it. Any argument that can be pulled out of the wild blue yonder (whether relevent to this season or not) will be used to support the notion Stro should start and get more minutes. Can't you understand Stro has the mental fragility of a small child and must be coddled, bottle fed and burped by JVG or else all his problems this season are because of JVG? Can't you understand that even though he is the same thing this year he's always been, it is still JVG's fault? Can't you understand that even though Stro has played 5 1/2 NBA seasons he must be treated with kid gloves like an 18 year old rookie? Can't you understand that even though he's played in almost 400! NBA games, Stro has this HUGE potential to become something he's never been?

Dr of Dunk, please stop wasting our time with logic. It's so obvious Stro should start and get more minutes. It will magically make him play better and the answer to our PF needs.

 

Dang all the mods have been getting into it lately...

 

This is what I'm not getting. Where have I disagreed with this? I agree! That doesn't mean we automatically say "Stro... you get the majority of the minutes!" because Stro hasn't improved his numbers for the most part from any of his previous years. Rudy T said it best when he talked about the Francis team, I believe, when he said somewhere "they just get it and it clicks". Or something along those lines. Tap tap, I hear nothing clicking with Stro - he's the same player he's always been and that had kept him shackled on the bench in Memphis.

The thing I like about JHo and what made me a fan of his was when we had NOBODY and he had to average over 40+ mins/game for a stretch, he came through for us. He was our go-to guy. Are you saying you honestly think if Stro had been placed in that position, he would've done the same? I don't think he would have. Juwan is a team player and either he's a far better player than he's being given credit for or Stro is just being given too much credit with very little reason.

I'll answer you with a question : what do you think we could've gotten for a Mario Elie? A Kenny Smith? A Jim Peterson? Good role players shouldn't be judged by trade value, but how they complete a team. What Juwan could fetch on the market means little to me simply because a 7 foot stiff could fetch a lot in trade value. A trade exception could fetch a lot in trade value. Today's trades are predicated just as much by monetary implication as they are talent. I can concede to those who say that Juwan is not a great player... hell I'll even concede to some that say he's not a good player, but don't say that and in the same breath tell me that Stro should get more minutes over him. Based upon what? Oh yeah... potential... the potential he apparently hasn't shown in practice that will magically materialize in games where we try to nurture Swift as opposed to focusing on hopefully winning games.

 

Honestly I don't think anybody's "getting into it". I think this is a decent discussion... we just happen to disagree. And it looks like that's not going to change.

 

There are a couple of things about this team that bothers me that I do think Swift could help us with. We’re at the bottom of the league in forcing turnovers, we’re at the bottom of the league in free-throw attempts, and we’re at the bottom of the league in fast break points.

God knows Swift has his weaknesses, but those are three areas where I think he could help us with. The guy does a very good job of getting to the basket and getting to the free throw line. He certainly has the athleticism to improve our fast break. Defensively, he isn’t a strong man-to-man defender like Juwan, but he is more suited to a defensive scheme that forces more turnovers. He’s got the quickness to defend all the way out to the 3-point line, force steals by trapping on the perimeter and playing the passing lanes, and although he hasn’t done it much this season, he can block a few shots.

The bad thing about starting Swift is our man-to-man defense is not going to be as good as it is with Howard and we’re probably going to turn the ball over more. But I would be open to sacrificing some of our strengths if it could improve some of our weaknesses.

 

I think you're underestimating the relevance of per-minute stats. Sure, you can't expect perhaps for a player who gets maybe 5-15 minutes a game to stay steady when he gets more time. But for regular rotation players who get about 20 minutes a game, you can make much more confident predictions on how they'll produce with more time. Actually, people who have looked into the matter much more in depth than me have concluded that per-minute stats are generally quite consistent as players get more minutes:

link
"Another important breakthrough for analysis of the NBA was finding that statistics calculated on a per-minute basis tend to be fairly consistent even when a player changes his role and begins to play more minutes. This allows for a level playing field in comparisons of low-minute reserves (as long as they've played a reasonable number of minutes; most cut-offs are 500 or 1,000 minutes for the season) and starters. Sometimes, you'll hear this referred to as a player's rate; his "scoring rate", for example, would be points per 48 minutes.

"The Sonics front office has long made extensive use of per-48 minute statistics. Their use by analysts allowed players like Andrei Kirilenko, Michael Redd and Zach Randolph to be identified as future stars even when they were languishing on their team's bench."

I don't think Swift will ever be a smart defensive player, but over time I still believe he'll be a more effective defensive player. He'll make mistakes, but he'll also make plays. The second part can't really be said about Howard.

It depends on the nature of the turnover and the missed shot. A lot of Swift's turnovers, for instance, are balls he fumbles out of bounds. That's a dead ball situation so we have a chance to set up defensively. That said, I wouldn't be surprised at all if we give up more transition baskets with Swift than Howard. It's also something I'd be interested in finding out.

No doubt.

You can check out how Yao/Howard pair play together compared to the Yao/Swift pair here.

With Yao, Howard scores 10.7 points/40min on 44% shooting. With them on the court, the Rockets are -57 in 562 minutes.

Compare that to Yao with Swift. Swift scores 14.3 on 50.6% shooting, and the Rockets are +38 in 298 minutes.

Consider that, for what it's worth.

 

Stro CAN MAKE THE TEAM WORSE. When his head isn't in the game he is a huge detriment on the court and must come off. He cannot be treated like some kind of special VIP. This season isn't dedicated to just being a lab experiment for Stro. And when you ask "why not find out if Stro is the answer at PF", what hasn't been answered yet? The guy has played 400! NBA games! What questions do you still have? He isn't suited to be a 30+ minute starting player in this league. He IS NOT the answer for us. His lack of strength, heft, rebounding instincts and outside shooting DO NOT mesh very well with Yao. The lack of brains, hustle, positioning, blah blah blah close the deal.

At best, Stro is a backup PF/C combo player. We don't need to tank games in order to make this fact any more obvious. I can hardly wait until next year when he is stinking it up for another team. The Stro love here is a true Clutchfans phenomenon!

Of course Juwan isn't the answer either. Neither is Chuck Hayes. So what do you do? Play the PF rotation that gives you the best chance of winning until we get someone who is better than Juwan.

And this per minute stat stuff is garbage. Give it a rest, please. Try watching the games. Per minute stats don't tell the whole story of Stro's goof ups, missed assignments, blown PnRs, etc. Extrapolating per minute stats to 40 or 48 mpg is nonsense because it doesn't reflect reality.

 

I agree apolostic3, except maybe not as harsh.

Swift starting doesn't make this team any better. Plus, if you plan on doing that, you better be damn sure Howard can play some center (which he can not). Now, if they had another quality backup center on the team, then I wouldn't mind trying Swift out in the starting 5, though like I said, I dont think it gives the Rockets any better chance of winning than with Howard.

At the start of the season, I thought he should start because I believed he and Howard fit better in the rotation (Swift, the shot blocker/rebounder next to Yao the scorer. Howard the scorer next to Deke the shot blocker/rebounder), but that was before Deke looked like he is starting to roll down the other side of the hill.

It's very clear now that Swift was brought here for a specific role. To bring on a more athletic option to backup Yao and Howard (in which other teams' second units are smaller) and to spare Deke minutes as well.

And, saying Howard isn't effective with Yao because he only shoots long jumpers is like Haslem is bad for Shaq. You need that guy to hit those otherwise the other team's 4 will just collapse on Yao the whole game.

 

I never said per minute stats told the whole story about Stromile. Nor are they "garbage". They tell a part of the story which shouldn't be overlooked. Swift is a more efficient scorer than Juwan. He's a better rebounder. He's a better shot blocking threat, and he'll get you more steals and he draws more fouls. That's the part those per-minute stats tell, and it's clearly relevant.

You can extrapolate per minute statistics to 35-40 minutes a game in most cases, as long as the player has played enough minutes to get an accurate picture of his production rate. According to the article I linked to, he should have at least 1000 minutes. Stromile played at a consistently higher level statistically this season and last season compared to Juwan. That's more than enough minutes to make a prediction of what his production would be if he got 33 or 35 minutes a game.

But even if his individual numbers end up being better (I think they definitely would), that doesn't necessarily mean we'd be better off. Stromile makes a lot of dumb mistakes, as you say. But it's not like our starting lineup with Howard is tearing it up. Howard has been consistently mediocre, and I think a shakeup in the lineup is entirely warranted.

 

From what I have seen of Stro, I can't say I am overly impressed. He really tends to look lost. When he looks lost the whole team just seems to be lost just like a domino effect. I am ready to say it is time to dump the guy and see what we can get in return than give up on our team's chance of getting into the playoffs. A chain is only as strong as its weakest link. I understand the goal is to win a championship and it isn't to just be a mediocre team that makes the playoffs a few years but honestly is Stro really the type of pf that we can count on to do just that. I mean I honestly don't think we are asking too much from the pf position. We picked up a couple of CBA players and it doesn't seem like they are doing that bad of a job or having that hard of a time picking up what we want/need them to do. Stro with all the talent he has should be doing a way better job than these guys but it is seeming quite apparent that he isn't. I don't think we should be questioning whether or not it is time to start Stro but if it is time let him go.

 

Juwan is playing horrible and Swift missed another practice. Is there another option? Hayes?

 

Yeah, give Stro more minutes... let's see what he can do... apparently he can't even show up for practice on time. Is there a stat for that?

I agree... give more time to Hayes. Unlike Stro, he's at least attempting to earn the time and not relying on years of "potential".

 

We need to dump this guy while his trade value is north of zero. Let another team waste 40 games trying and failing to bring out his supposedly "untapped potential" to be a solid starter in this league. LOL.

 

Im really not disagreeing with you Doc, I realize that Stro is one of the most incosistent players not only on this team, but in the entire league. What I am saying is that why couldnt van gundy start the year off, or even during a stretch of 5-10 games, start stro and see if he can get into a comfort zone offensively and defensively with the group. His upside, if he ever came close to reaching it, would be great with Tmac and Yao. Juwon is more of a stable prescence, but he is just as inconsistent as Stromile on some nights, like tonight. All i am saying is Stro should have recieved a CHANCE to start and work with Tmac and Yao and see what he can bring if he develops a consistency.

 

Stro HAS RECEIVED A CHANCE to start!!! ever since we aquired him! JVG has stated many time prior to the season that either stro or Juw would start based on who outperforms the other and wins the starting JOB. Obviously Howard won and stro lost, but that didnt mean he had ZERO CHANCE to start. Frthermore Despite this, JVG has start stro not ONCE, twice, three or four times BUT FIVE Games this year. IF Stro deserved to start he would start... if he played better he would get more minutes, if he showed up in time for practice he would get in the game... perhaps we should have a poll of whether or not stro should makes it to practice in time, b4 we have one discussing whether he should deserve a starting spot again.

Oh and Durvasa, funny how you neglected to extrapolate Stros fouls to a 40min rate seeing as he would avg over 6 fouls a game.

posted by: not J