Don't forget a healthy Backe... who even when healthy was a question mark, as long as it wasn't the playoffs.
Where did I argue they were? I have already stated, numerous times, that they're better off *this year* with Jennings.
So, you're telling me that if the Astros had snuck into the playoffs last year with an 83-79 record, it shouldn't matter because if you come from a terrible division, you're not "really good", and likely won't win playoff series? Because at that point, I'd take Oswalt-Pettite-Clemens as a good starting point to try to win at least 2 series (and then seeing Detroit being "just happy to be there", as we were in 05, possibly 3). And regardless... the Cardinals WERE NOT a good team. Yes, they had the 2nd best record at one point. The Astros at one point were the best team in the NL last year. No matter how it happens, even if its a collapse the final 10 days, or a 36-10 streak to close out the season, everything evens out... you're about as good (or as bad) as your final record shows (and you can use Bill James' runs scored vs. runs against for the exp. W/L for those teams and see that they aren't far off). They had the best pitching... but they weren't the best "team." Even still, by that model, pitching rules everything. Thus, you can see why the Astros NEEDED a #2 starter for THIS year. And they got one without giving up one single player that had "greatness" potential all over them. This isn't even close to the Cardinals giving up Danny Haren (who now leads the league in ERA) for Mulder. This isn't close to the Astros giving up Garcia for Randy.
And they didn't want to waste "this year"... with the division up for grabs, and the league featuring not one world beater. Next year everything could be different... Carpenter can come back healthy, and the Cards can call up Rasmus and be dominant again. Or the Brewers can get more experience under their belt and finally be a consistent team. Either way, Hirsh was NEVER looked at as a "can't miss" phenom who was set to dominate the league for years to come. Yes, the Astros can't recover from missing out on a guy like that... but my money is that Hirsh never becomes the type of pitcher in the majors that was having a sub 2 ERA in the minors.
If the Astros wanted to be competitive this year, they needed a number 2....Hirsch wouldn't provide that...but Jennings can now. And there's no guarantee Hirsch, Buchholz or Taveras would have been staples on the roster for years to come...so if Jennings leaves it's not that big of a loss, especially with Sampson doing well and Patton waiting.
I agree our pitching staff is going to be pretty good for the next several years, regardless of what Jennings does. I do hope we can re-sign him for a decent salary though or trade him at the deadline for a bona-fide SS, C, 3b.
The problem is that we needed a 3 and 4 guy too. We got lucky with Sampson being good, but unlucky with Williams being bad so far. I think management just figured Clemens was coming back to pitch for us this year. I really think they expected Woody Williams to end up being the number 4 guy and unfortunately it didn't work out that way he has pitched like a 5th starter and been really our 3rd guy behind Oswalt and Sampson. Management just guessed wrong and that is why this deal has been so bad so far. Would we get draft pick compensation if he doesn't re-sign? I don't know how that all works out, I just know that the player has to be offered arbitration which is why we don't receive anything for Pettitte or Clemens.
So, according to you, we needed a #2, #3, AND #4 guy... and yet this was a bad deal? What would you have done? Would you have gone into the season with Oswalt, Wandy, Hirsh, Sampson, Albers... and actually expected to compete? Or are you on the side of the argument that says we should just sit pat, let these guys develop, and who knows... in 2-3 years, we may or may not have something. Sure, they would have loved to have Clemens back... but that still wouldn't have been a long-term fix. The guys they expect to be future #2's and #3's include Patton, Guiterez, and possibly Albers or Wandy (Wandy is improving... but he's still Wandy). Backe will also be in the mix. But this is all next year. For this year, unless you're willing to sacrafice the entire season by relying on overachievement from the starters we have now, knowing full well that the division is right there for the taking... they needed to make a move.
I don't think management necessarily got lucky with Sampson...he showed them what he could do last season in his limited starts and earned his spot in Spring Training. And I also don't think the Astros expected Clemens to re-sign...I think this is the first year they truly did plan ahead w/o him (though still hoping he came back). Woody has been the only dissapointment thus far to an otherwise pretty solid rotation. But still, Oswalt-Jennings-Woody-Wandy-Sampson or even Oswalt-Albers-Woody-Wandy-Sampson have been better than Oswalt-Woody-Hirsch-Wandy-Sampson or Oswalt-Hirsch-Wandy-Sampson-Buchholz would have been. I just don't get all the incessant whining about one of the few things that has been pretty good for this team this season.
No, I expected to lose this season, which is exactly what is happening. I would have kept what few bargaining chips I had and tried to get something else for them not a guy who may not even be a number 2 starter on a good team. Jennings isn't a long term fix unless we resign him which we could've done in the offseason anyways, so we traded away 3 players to get a guy for one season. Two starters isn't enough to win the division, we needed at least one more and we didn't get one and unless we trade Lidge, Wheeler, or Patton, we aren't going to get one.
Obviously you believe that being 11th in the National League in ERA is pretty good. Maybe it is just the starting ERA of 4.34 that is good enough for 8th. Bad and mediocre are obviously the same thing as pretty good. 8th is only pretty good when u compare it to being 14th in runs scored. We needed more than Jennings, but we didn't get more.
We are 3rd in our division in Starter's ERA. A division we won in 2004 & 2005 with pitching. Sounds like the starting pitching is worth a 3rd place finish to me. Yes our pitching would be good enough if we had a good offense, but we don't and it is easier to go out and get one more starter than it is to replace your SS and your C with good offensive players. Had we kept Pettitte, then trading for Jennings would've made perfect sense to me. Then he very well good have been the player that put us over the top this year because then we would have a great starting rotation. Pitching wins games more often then hitting.
you're right. i didn't realize we had fallen that far in starters' ERA. i agree with everything you just said, assuming those stats are correct.
Let's look at it a little bit closer. 3 of our 5 starters have ERAs under 3.50...Wandy has a serviceable 4.31, a full run under his career average. The weak link is Woody, who's ERA has now inflated to 5.79...so I suspect he's a good reason why this team has slipped a little. All four other guys have turned in quality starts or good enough starts to win on a pretty consistent basis. The pitching is not the problem....or you could consider a problem if you expect those guys to hold teams to one run or less every game.
I agree that it isn't the problem, it just isn't the answer. Jennings ERA is hard to judge after only 4 starts. You can't ignore our starting pitching isn't what it was the last few years and that is why I don't think we can come back this year without one more starter. Maybe Jennings will continue to pitch well and Woody can pick it up and we can get back to .500. I actually like Wandy as a number 5 guy, Sampson as a number 4 and Jennings as a number 2/3 guy, but I think Woody at his best is a number 4 guy at this point and I don't think he will be able to be the other 2/3 guy we needed. That is why I said earlier that I thought management was counting on Clemens to come in and be that guy. I think this team can compete, if it can pull off a trade before it is too late, but we are low on players people will want. Patton is our best bargaining chip left in the minors and I know must of us don't want to see him traded. We also need to consider that this is Sampson's first year as a full-time starter in the big leagues and he could tire towards the end of the season. BTW, how awful has our ERA been over the last 15-20 games?
i kind of agree - jennings' injury is really the key. he's missed anywhere from 9-10 starts. that forced albers into the rotation (7 starts) and upped the number of appearences for both woody and wandy (24 between them). if you gave jennings woody's 13 starts and then bumped everyone else down accordingly (with sampson getting albers' 7 starts)... i'd say the injury has cost the team roughly (in numbers only, obviously)... 4 wins. that would put them in 2nd place, 4.5 games back.
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/colum...jayson&id=2896288&lpos=spotlight&lid=tab2pos1 • The buzz in Houston is that the Astros don't want to wait around until July to get in the trading mood because they're not interested in letting this season slip away. So they've been sending signals they're looking for an outfield bat, a dependable starting pitcher and a young catcher to succeed Brad Ausmus. And they would rather make those moves sooner than later.
I don't know exactly how they will get all that, but I'd love to see it. I already started on thread earlier on dealing for Saltamachia (I hope that is at least close to how u spell it) from the Braves. I think it would be good for now and later and if we could get another quality starter we would have a chance at a run.
