The reason so many people on this board think it is going to be a close election is because this is a very left leaning forum. (That's part of what I like so much about it. Lefties tend to have better musical tastes, better ideas on what to do at night, basically I am a social lefty.) But this board is to the left and all of you guys think that your groupthink is representative of the country. It's not. This will be about the eightieth time I have said this: George W. Bush will win in a landslide. It won't be close. You guys are a very important part of a very vocal minority. The 2000 election was very close and the press said that it showed how divided the country is. 9-11 changed that. The country is not divided. Fun debating with you guys though!
Chance: You live in Texas which also gives you a skewed perspective. Back when you predicted the landslide, Kerry was leading in national polls and in electoral predictors -- not just the BBS. You're right that 9/11 swung a great lot of support to Bush. His national numbers reflected that then. International support for the US did too. His actions since then have indisputably eroded world support and support at home as well. He's given up more than 30 points in national approval rating since 9/11. I've said of this election that the only prediction I can make is that anyone making predictions -- especially confident predictions of an easy victory -- isn't paying close attention. Bush may win in a relative "landslide" and Kerry may too. More likely it will be very close, coming down to one or two states. Right now Bush is definitely up. Kerry's run a careful and inept campaign as Democrats usually do and Bush has run a focused, even ruthless one as Republicans usually do. If Kerry fights back, he'll pull even again. And then it'll be down to the debates, the economy and the biggest wildcard of all in another terrorist attack or Osama's capture or killing. If Bush wins handily, I'll give you credit for a lucky guess. But I'll give you more credit if you'll define landslide before it happens. How many points in the popular vote would constitute a landslide? How many electoral votes? If you'll give me decent odds on a "landslide," I'll happily take a bet that doesn't involve money. But I'd only bet against there being a wide margin one way or the other. Predicting who'll win in September, in such a severely divided electorate is a fool's errand.
Bush gets elected with between 300 and 316 electoral votes. And at this stage it is much more than a lucky guess. It was months ago, too. Election season is a wonderful time of the year when everyone reflects on their political views. It is an exagerated view of the rest of the year. Everyone drifts towards the outer realm of their political personae but ultimately they go with the most comfortable choice for them. Kerry is extremely different from Bush. Not moderately different. EXTREMELY different. Not just how he votes and the legislature he supports but in how he carries himself. I think that how a person carries himslef is as important as any of the issues and Kerry carries himself too rigidly. If Bill clinton was running against Bush it would be a close race but this Democratic candidate is simply weak. The only thing going for him is he is not Bush, and that is not enough. If I had to pin it on a number I would say the swing states the Bush pulls will include: Florida, Arizona, (Thanks McCain), Colorado, Minnesota, Iowa, Missouri, Arkansas, Tennessee, Pennsylvania, and Virginia. That would give him 307. That's plretty landslide-y. EDIT - Popular vote somewhere around 55 - 60 percent for W. and 39 - 44 for the Senator.
This election which will be won in the battleground states is too close to call. Whatever bump GWB go from his convention will fade over the next few weeks when more body bags come back from Iraq and when the economy doesn't turn the corner. Heading into the debates I expect Kerry and W to be neck 'n neck. Chance, how close was the 2000 Presidential election? How close was the 2002 mid term election? The country is currently evenly split between the two parties. That is just how it is. If anything, the last two years have caused GWB more poitical damage than gain. This has and will work against GWB's natural advantage of being the incumbent. My prediction is that whoever wins the debates wins the election.
Nobody ever wins the debates.... Unless you're a Republican, then the Republican candidate wins, OR you're a Democrat, then that candidate wins.
Surprisingly thoughtful analysis. Good work. Some thoughts: Colorado and Arizona aren't really swing states. They should be solid bets for Bush. If they solidify over the next weeks it means he can focus on Pennsylvania and Ohio. (Why aren't you calling Ohio for him, by the way? It's a better bet than PA or MN.) Most of thee states you listed actually trend red these days. AZ, CO, AR, TN, VA should all be red states. MN and PA should go blue. Florida, Iowa, Ohio, West Virginia and New Mexico are all pretty even and they're what's left. If things start going really badly for either of these guys we can start looking at Oregon, Washington, North Carolina and a few others too. I agree with a lot of what you said, particularly the stuff on demeanor and its importance in an election. And I agree Kerry's at a severe disadvantage there. But I also believe that at least 40% of the electorate will not pull a lever for Bush (I think it's the same for Kerry). That means that if every other voter does, your scenario's good. I don't think it is. Name a friendly bet and I'll take it.
I know that the only true "poll" that will mean anything, is the election itself. But I do have a question. Could anyone explain why the republican convention produced upwards of an 11 point spike in the "polls" and the democratic convention did not produce a spike in the polls (if I am wong about the polls following DNC I apologize - please correct me)?
Do you want to do popular or electoral? We'll make a line and go from there! I actually do think OH will go for W but that would make the numbers look too skewed and make me look like a ridiculous homer. I'm thinking o/u on electoral at 300 or o/u on popular at 57. Would that work? As far as what I can come up with for booty...how about Toby Keith tickets?? Only kidding. Rockets season is not far away I'll pitch in a couple of Rockets tickets.
Wow. Rockets tickets? Any chance they might be around the holidays? I'm in PA these days (every vote counts), but I'll be back for about a week before the 26th when I head to Hawaii. I'd been thinking we'd do a signature bet or something, so I'll have to come up with something that'd match the tickets. Don't guess you'd want some passes to Houston's best underground theater company? I think OH will go W too, but I think we're hanging on to PA and MN and maybe Iowa too. And Florida is still totally up for grabs. Young Cuban Americans are trending Dem and the old folks there don't like Bush's health care legislation. There are also a hell of a lot of pissed off people from the last time -- ones who voted and ones who didn't. They'll all be showing up. The ones who didn't vote last time (whether because they were turned away, moved around to new precincts or just didn't care to) don't show up on polls. They're not considered "likely voters." I also think we're going to pull out New Mexico (we've got rimrocker working on it), but you didn't dispute that. All that said, I'll take the popular vote bet. We won it last time, so I like our chances keeping you under 57%.
Tdogg: Your numbers are a bit off. Kerry got around a 3 or 4 point spike. Bush didn't get 11 or upwards of it. The most generous polls have him up 11 now and he was up around 2 before it started. There are other polls that still have it a lot tighter. American Research Group has Kerry up by 1; The Economist has Kerry by 1; Leger has Bush by 4; Newsweek and Time have him by 11; Rasmussen has him by 4; Zogby by 2. Check http://www.electoral-vote.com/ for exact numbers. If you consider that Bush went into the convention ahead, apart from Time/Newsweek there's no evidence of a major bounce. He is ahead, no doubt, but the convention didn't do it. Kerry had an awful August (thanks, Swifties!) before NYC.
-If Clinton was running, this would be a landslide against Bush. You have to be a real right wing fanatic to think otherwise. Bush is not popular. The country has fared awfully in his term on most fronts. He's only winning because he's going against an incredibly weak candidate. It'd be like 60-35 if Clinton was running. Against W. And your projections are nuts. There's absolutely no freakin way Bush gets SIXTY percent of the popular vote. He's one of the most hated presidents ever and for good reason.
Questions to Batman: How many Gore 2000 voters do you know that are voting for Bush 2004? How many Bush 2000 voters do you know that are voting for Kerry 2004? How many Nader 2000 voters do you know that are voting for Kerry 2004?
John Kerry is better when he is behind. Just ask Bill Weld, Howard Dean, Dick Gephardt, Wesley Clark, and I think even Al Sharpton.
More Questions to Batman: Will the Republican turnout be higher in 2004 versus 2000? Will the Democrat turnout be higher in 2004 versus 2000? Will ACT be successful enough in registering more Democrats in battleground state to make a difference?
Dudes.... you have got to get Bush out of office. He's a complete nutbar. Kerry may be a knob, but he's better than dubya.
