Because he won't be playing a full season. If he comes back after May 1, I predict they could sign him for less than $15 million. Bottom line, there was no guarantee on his part that he was coming back or that he would be willing to negotiate with the Astros for less than $18 million. Chances are, in a hearing he would've been awarded more than the $18 million. He did not give the Astros a number nor did he give any indication that he would make his decision anytime soon. You also have to take into consideration is age and the way his body broke down last September. The last two years have been amazing, but they're definitely not the norm for players his age.
You'd be very, very wrong. The numbers are fairly easy to estimate. And you can simply look at their revenue numbers from 2003 to 2004 - they didn't go up $20MM. 15-17 home starts. An average of 5,000 more fans per start. That's about 80,000 extra fans. Out of a total of 2.5 million or so. You do the math and see if those 80,000 bring in $20MM in revenues. Even at $30 per ticket + concessions (way more than realistic), that's $2.4 million. Merchandise sales split between all of MLB. TV revenues don't change for a short-term spike in viewship. Tickets, concessions, merchandise, and TV are the overwhelming majority of revenue sources. Where does the other $17MM in magical revenues come from? The only way you get extra revenues, is postseason ticket sales, and that (1) assumes you make the postseason with Clemens and (2) you ONLY make the postseason with Clemens. And even adding that money, it does not not nearly account for $17MM. So no, Clemens comes nowhere close to paying for himself. Add the fact that he's older, he may or may not play, he was injured towards the end of last season, and he admitted his motivation isn't the same without his mom there, and it would be one of the franchise's stupidest decisions to offer him arbitration.
I think you could sign him for a lot less than that. If he's still available May 1, it means he's committed to retiring/playing for the Astros. That gives the Astros all the leverage. Offer him $8 or $10M or no deal. He'll ultimately take it, because if he wants to pitch, he'll have no choice. And he's not going to retire if the itch is still there to play.
Let's see; Bagwell came through the minors as a stud prospect @ third base, not first. Caminiti having locked down third in Houston created the need for Bagwell to learn first on the fly which he did with no problem. Old slow good hitting outfielders are continually moved to first to prolong their career. Hell, dh's in the a.l. frequently play first when playing interleague games so that they can maintain the pop in the order. Not saying that any position in the major leagues is "easy" to play, or that I even agree with the fantasy of the situation, but I do believe that Ensberg would have a very easy time becoming acclimated to first base. First base is the dh of the national league.
he made 32 starts last year, earning roughly $560k a start. if he came back after may, he'd miss 4-5 starts (he made 5 last april)... putting him on pace to make 27-28 for the year. but if he took your "less than $15 million," he'd actually be taking a paycut from last year. so, again, why, because of may 1, does he suddenly settle for less money? if you're going to argue that it's conceivable, then so too is the notion that he'd afford the same discount to the team prior to the hearing, no? as to the likely "why would he when he's guaranteed much more in arbitration" retort, same goes to you, re: "less than $15 million" - why would he take less money than last year when its highly conceivable a BOS or NYY would be willing to pay him much more? my guess is that even after may 1, he's going to cost anywhere from $16.5-$17.5M.
In the arbitration scenario, Clemens has all the leverage - Astros have to pay his price or get stuck with $20MM in arbitration. In the May 1 scenario, the Astros have all the leverage. Clemens has to play for the Astros offer or not play at all.
Because he's entitled to at least $15 million if the Astros had offered arbitration. Do you really believe that he would settle for less than the very minimum the Astros would've had to pay him? There's a very good chance that the arbitrator would rule in Clemens' favor. Not to mention, if it got to a hearing, there could be things said in the hearing that may make Roger more inclined to stay retired. The Astros would have to bring up the fact that he faltered down the stretch due to injury and they'd definitely bring up his age. You don't want any bad blood. If, on May 1, he decides he wants to comeback to the Astros, they are not obligated to pay him that much. He can either holdout for $15-17 million for not a full season, or he could take less and play. The Astros will hold all the leverage at that point salary-wise. Bottom line, had Clemens shown any willingness to tip his hand or negotiate before the deadline, I believe the Astros would've offered arbitration. You can't tie up a minimum of $15 million (and very possibly more) on a player who may or may not even pitch next season.
except that, in the interim, he can sign with any team he wants and the astros have no say in the matter. he has the leverage, no matter what you do. so why risk losing him over what will probably be anywhere from $4-5M, which, i promise, he more than pays for himself?
I think the biggest thing that Astros management is trying to avoid is making a kneejerk signing like JD Drew, Adrian Beltre, or Steve Finley last year. Jarrod Washburn just got a $37.5 million contract over 4 years from Seattle. To me that's just too much.
You have to be kidding me. Even Mike Lamb can play first base, better than he does 3rd in fact. You're talking crazy discounting the obvious now. This most likely would have happened had we signed Glaus in the offseason. Oh no, there goes ya'lls whole "what free agents could have helped?" argument.
And yet somehow, we were good enough to essentially beat the Cardinals in 5 out of 6 games, save for that one Lidge hanging slider. If we're in bad shape, the Cardinals are in even worse shape (check out their off-season)... which means we should already be the favorites to win the NL Central, right? RIGHT?
I don't get your logic here. First, he can sign with any team he wants even if we do offer him arbitration. So if he wants to sign with someone else, he'll do it. But I suspect the Astros have a sense of this. They are not going to be held hostage by him. As for the $4-$5MM - I'm not sure your logic. I agree that Clemens brings in about $5MM in revenues. But we're talking about $5MM on top of about $15MM - so that's money the Astros would have to shell out. That's not paying for itself. At $20MM, the Astros are shelling out $15MM net. At $15MM, the Astros are shelling out $10MM net. I suspect, though, that the plan is that the Astros try to improve, up their salary, and then offer Roger $5-$10MM for one last title run. If he's not interested, too bad. But if we have $15MM-$20MM flexibility in the budget, I'd much rather go after Abreu or Manny or someone like that than get stuck in a $20MM commitment to Clemens, only to find out 3 months from now that he's decided he doesn't want to play. Clemens played a high stakes game with the Astros and got called on the bluff. If he goes to some other team and proves that everything he said the past couple of years about only wanting to play near his family (and pitch to Ausmus, etc) is a bunch of BS, so be it.
If we signed Glaus, chances are we traded Ensberg. Ensberg is not a backup 3B, and we had Bagwell at first (backed up Lamb) at the time. There was no spot on the field for Ensberg if we sign Glaus.
We've seen Purpura assemble a team that got to the World Series... without spending ridiculous amounts of money on a 3B prone to injury and much less productive than ours.
Purpura assembled last year's team? Uh, I don't think so. Gerry Hunsicker did. Purpura came in and didn't do a darn thing. Are you being serious?? Surely not.
No, we've seen Hunsicker assemble a team that got to the World Series without spending ridiculous amounts of money. Get it right. Look I'm not saying every free agent out there is a good fit or even any free agent out there is a good fit, but I believe there are trades out there to improve this team that aren't being done because someone overvalues his prospects.
Excuse me, but Tim Purpura was the GM last year, and his team made the WS, in large part because he didn't panic early and trade the farm. Furthermore, he was the guy in charge of the Astros minor league system under Gerry. He deserves credit for guys like Lane, Ensberg, Oswalt, Lidge, Qualls, Astacio, Scott, Taveras, Berkman, etc. That's not counting other trades like Backe, Buchholz and prospects like Nieve, Hirsh, Patton and Pence. Also, I guess Gerry Hunsicker wanted to retain Craig Biggio at 2B(even though he publicly stated otherwise), and Tim wasn't the one who retained Roger last year, with Mclane's approval.
