This isn't what I was looking for at all. I'm talking about replacing Clemens actual starts with Wandy or Zeke's actual or average starts. Of course its flawed but it paints a better picture than that crap above. But to play along with what you were going with what was Clemens Expected W/L last season? Now replace Clemens likely replacement last season Wandy 5.53 era or Zeke 5.67 era and recalculate that Expected W/L again. You guys are making it seem that losing Clemens is no big deal since we were below .500 in his starts. That's just crazy talk. I guess you guys were huge fans of Jeriome Robertson.
The anti-Purprura? In introducing starting pitcher Javier Vazquez to the White Sox, general manager Ken Williams quickly assessed his off-season retooling that has seen eight players go from their 2005 World Series title team. "I didn't think that, if we brought back the same exact team, we were going to win," Williams said Tuesday night during a conference call.
'Tis the season to give Astros' brass a break By JOSE DE JESUS ORTIZ Copyright 2005 Houston Chronicle Wasn't it just a year ago that Drayton McLane, Tim Purpura and Tal Smith headed to Kissimmee, Fla., with the best intentions for a face-to-face meeting with Carlos Beltran and his agent Scott Boras? Thursday will mark the first anniversary of the day McLane, Purpura and Smith arrived at the Astros' spring training facility with a bundle of gifts for Beltran, not to mention an initial offer worth $70 million. They gave Beltran a book of 250 e-mails from fans urging him to stay in Houston. They presented him with a highlights video from his exploits in the 2004 postseason, filling it with crowd shots of fans urging the man to stay. They gave Beltran a framed copy of the Chronicle's Oct. 18, 2004, Sports section cover with the headlines: "THE EQUALIZER" and " 'Superman' turns golfer, tees off on Tavarez." We bring this up again to remind us what a whacky ride McLane and the Astros carried us on over the last year. Astros fans headed into last Christmas longing for Beltran, who left their stockings full of coal while packing his with the New York Mets' $119 million. With Beltran's departure, many doubted Purpura, McLane and Smith could put together a decent team in 2005, let alone a National League champ. How foolish were we? Lesson learned Let the Beltran negotiations teach us a lesson this holiday season. Happiness is not found in material possessions or the grandest stage. In 2005, the Astros embodied the greatness of this community. They pitched in just as you did to help our brothers from New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina sent at least 150,000 evacuees our way. They cried and hurt with you from Sept. 20 to Sept. 22 as their families and yours crammed Houston's airports and highways during frantic, angst-filled evacuations ahead of Hurricane Rita. Roger Clemens and his family let you into what always will be one of the most difficult days of their lives, and you marveled as he beat the Florida Marlins 10-2 with 5 1/3 sobering innings at Minute Maid Park less than 15 hours after his mother, Bess, died Sept. 14. They made you laugh, especially during the half-dozen times Lance Berkman ran off the field before realizing there were two outs instead of three. How high did you jump when Brad Ausmus' home run tied Game 4 of the NL Division Series and Chris Burke's homer ended it in the 18th inning, eliminating the Atlanta Braves from the NLDS? Lasting memories How much did you pump your fist as Roy Oswalt pumped his while dominating the St. Louis Cardinals in Games 2 and 6 of the NL Championship Series at Busch Stadium? And if you have cheered the Astros for a great deal of your life, surely you felt an urge to cry after Jason Lane caught the final out of Game 6 of the NLCS, sending you, Houston, to the World Series for the first time. How dejected were you when the White Sox celebrated their sweep of the World Series? How long did it take to step back and appreciate how far this team got after appear- ing dead at 15-30 on May 24? Improbable run Last year around this time, nobody could have imagined that Dan Wheeler, Lane, Burke, Wandy Rodriguez, Chad Qualls and Ezequiel Astacio would play such crucial roles for the Astros' team that finally won the NL pennant. The shiny presents this time of year always get all the attention, but there's nothing like the gift of substance. Lane, Burke, Wheeler, Qualls, Astacio and Rodriguez were hungry. They were eager to prove themselves. They taught us how a little patience can pay off. During the Hot Stove season, patience is always in short supply. Sure, you want Kevin Mench from the Texas Rangers right now, but it might be better to wait out this situation until the Rangers' demands become more reasonable. Bobby Abreu could look nice in an Astros uniform again, but wouldn't you rather see Baltimore's star shortstop Miguel Tejada here instead? This holiday season you can dream big or small. I wouldn't be surprised if Tejada landed here. I wouldn't be too disappointed if he didn't. Now's the time to dream, look back and reflect on what we've been blessed with in the past year. We've been taught the art of patience and, some might say, humility. So, relax a bit. Give Purpura and McLane a little time. They've earned it. And we won't bring out the tombstone next year until at least June 2
i thought the part that deserved bolding was this: I wouldn't be surprised if Tejada landed here. I wouldn't be too disappointed if he didn't. i've yet to hear the 'stros involved in tejada talk. that was eye-opening. wow, landing tejada would be... wow.
As long as he doesn't give anyone his special Vitamin C supplements, I'd welcome Miggy with open arms!! Did you see him assault the Crawford Boxes during HR Derby at MMP?!?
The bottom line is that this team needs to add a bat, desperately. It was witnessed all season long, as well as the post season, that our main area of weakness was our inability to score runs. It plagued Roger all season, and is the main reason we lost in the World Series. Our staff was so dominant throughout the season that they gave us a chance to win. And with career years from that staff we did win; but I will not hold my breath, nor should anyone else, expecting that to happen in consecutive years, given the age of the staff and the world beating numbers they produced. Losing Clemens could be potentially a colossal loss for this team. It's arguable, but certainly suffice to say that without Clemens and his 1-point-"filthy" ERA the Astros wouldn't have even sniffed the playoffs, let alone the World Series. I honestly do not feel that Clemens is done as an Astro though. I think that he will come back if, and only if, we add a big time RBI bat to the heart of the line-up. And I'm not talking about the Kevin Mench's and Rondell White's of the world either. This team, as it stands right now, has without a doubt regressed from last years team. Now....... the young players are likely to, and hopefully will, make forward progress from last season which would help; but losing a Clemens from the staff, and the unlikelyhood of certian players having consecutive careers years, greatly reduces this teams ability to do what they have done in years past by turning water into wine.
Richard Justice brought up a good point about Tejada being rumored with the astros. Do you really think that Drayton would be willing to spend an additional $12 million per season on Tejada, and possibly $15 million on Clemens if he comes back. That would push the Astros payroll to around $110 million. Tejada salary is a great value considering what Johnny Damon just signed for BTW. Lidge/Everett/Wandy for Tejada
You have to give up good players to get good players in return. I'll take Qualls as my closer any day of the week. He made huge strides from 2004 to 2005.
Well...remember one thing regarding possibly taking on Tejada's salary. Bagwell's contract comes off the books after this year. Maybe Uncle Drayton would be willing to bend the budget for one year.
Of course, no one believes what he says, but he pretty much indicated that yesterday (or whenever that massive PR bulldozer stunt was pulled).
Well, this is the reason we didn't commit to Clemens already. It leaves us the flexibility to make that kind of a decision if the opportunity arises. Bagwell's status also affects this. If Bagwell's healthy and you add a huge bat, then you change the way the team is designed. You tell Clemens you'll pay him $5MM if he wants another chance at a WS because that's all we can afford. If he's not interested, then we're a bit weaker at pitching but much stronger offensively. I think that still puts us in the playoff race, and an Oswalt-Pettite-Backe rotation in the playoffs is pretty good. We'll be much more in the mold of 2004 than 2005, but that team was an inning away from the World Series too. If Clemens signs, that much better. If Bagwell isn't healthy, that's $15MM available for Clemens, and we run out last year's team + one big bat.
Great article. I love the bits where he mentions the great moments of last season. To look back at it like that really reminds you how unbelievably magical it was.
So the Red Sox need a SS and a CF and a closer. Hmm....prolly too pricey for us, but I can see where they'd have interest in a Lidge/Everett/Taveras package. That would leave us pretty thin @ CF and SS.....unless they decided to put Burke in CF. I just don't think the Orioles are gonna part w/ Tejada unless they are overwhelmed. The Red Sox are now in desperate need of a CF and are making the rounds in search of one (Coco Crisp and Jeremy Reed have come up). Should be interesting to see which direction they go in as Red Sox fans are clearly panicking now.
I don't understand why any relief pitcher would be considered untouchable. That's like saying a guy who gets only 300 ABs a year should be considered untouchable.
I don't care. Reread the last sentence of that post. Nobody is saying losing Racket is a good thing. What some people *are* saying is that: 1) the Astros haven't actually lost him yet; 2) not offering him arbitration was a pretty shrewd financial move; 3) having a 44 year old (who broke down the final month+ of the past season) miss the first month+ of the season is not at all a bad thing. But to answer your query: the theoretical difference over the course of the '05 season between Roger Clemens and a pitcher with an ERA of 4.00 - with all other things being equal (bullpen, defense & run support) - is 5 wins (15-17 vs. 10-22). Factoid of the Day: Roger Clemens allowed 51 runs in his 32 starts. The bullpen allowed 49.
How can you be in favor of replacing our entire bullpen. Lidge is an elite closer, quite possibly the best outside of Rivera. And you're advocating moving him??? Qualls and Wheeler are both outstanding set-up men who will only get better. I am shocked that you would condone replacing an entire bullpen.
