Tim Purpora is Charlie Casserly

This was all just a few weeks after he told the Astros he may retire, and he wasn't going to decide anything till Mid December. Now, he lets them know he's not only pitching, but he needs a tWO year deal to be happy.

C'mon... if you don't believe he was pretty ecstatic to be leaving Houston to go back to NY, you still probably feel it was all Drayton's fault that we didn't get Beltran.

Yes, what if. Just like what if they went hard after Pettite... well, we needed a backup plan and got Jennings. If they lose Jennings next year, they'll have to get somebody else.

Its still a big risk to think Hirsh automatically would have filled in as a #2 this year, or at all during the next 4 years. You've then wasted the best years of Oswalt/Berkman.

Another "good ol days" argument... when we didn't sign our own free agents to big deals, didn't sign anybody elses free agents, and relied strictly on player development.

As for "mortgaging our future"... giving up 10+ years of Freddy Garcia and Guillen looks a little worse now than the potential futures of Hirsh and Willy T (who weren't close to being the prospects those two were). How about giving up John Buck as our catcher of the future... how would his numbers look right now in place of Ausmus?

How about signing Jose Lima to a big deal over Hampton? Talent evaluation didn't work out too well there. How about giving the huge deal to Hidalgo... somebody who had proven less than Carlos Lee. How about declaring Scott Elarton untradeable at the time for Roger Clemens in Toronto... didn't look all too good there. How about getting three failed players in return for Billy Wagner.

There are plenty of mistakes no matter who the GM, and which era of Astros baseball you consider. The players THEY HAVE are still expected to be playing better than they are... it makes the "construction" of this team look less hap-hazzard.

 

That is exactly what they did with the Unit deal, and it made sense at the time. Starting offensive-minded SS, starting C, top of the rotation starter. I seem to recall hearing about how the Stros needed all those things for the past few years.

 

Outfield defense is not why we're losing games right now, and my argument is that Willy T still isn't good enough, still doesn't hit the ball hard enough, and still doesn't draw enough walks to keep up that OBP for an entire season.

Your post ASB numbers for him on the Astros consist of ONE GREAT MONTH... that had him on an amazing hitting streak. Scott's numbers were just as amazing, over a longer period of time (100 more AB's, compared to Willy's great month).

And Pence being moved to CF can be a move simply based on there being far less talented CF's in this league (and in our system) than there are corner OF's, one of which we just signed to a huge deal. And thinking Luke Scott may have a nice 4-5 more years here isn't that huge of a stretch.

 

coughcough and apparently colorado....

hold up a sec - adam everett's skated for years offensively because of his defense. well last year, taveras played an equally important position just as well. but he's 6 years younger than everett and shown much greater offensive potential. so why is taveras the guy we HAD to upgrade? THAT'S the crux of my problem. had they upgraded SS (or C or 2B or RF), wouldn't they have been ok with taveras?

no, but jennings isn't worth hirsh+taveras, either.

i'd rather overpay for pettitte (especially given his relationship with clemens) and have hirsh and taveras.

he's 6th on the team in ABs. and again, i'm not focused as much on taveras, as i am their judgement of scott and lane in regards to pence.

 

Major, nobody on the Astros, front office included, believes that Pettitte wanted to come back. That to me speaks volumes more than the post-signing b.s. spin by Team Hendricks & public p.r. ass-covering by the Astros.

 

Sure - but keep in mind none of those things were immediate major needs at the time. The SS was probably the biggest loss, but the offense was good and Bogar/Guti was servicable at SS. Ausmus was still relatively young and thought of as a gold-glove catcher that was going to be here for years. And the Astros had Lima, Hampton, and Reynolds in their starting rotation with Lima and Hampton still very young.

Beyond that, the move was made with a very specific purpose - to turn a really, really good team into a great one. The Jennings move was to keep an OK team afloat - this was a 0.500 team last year that lost Pettitte and Clemens, and added Lee.

 

Yes, you are focused on Taveras. You're using his "improvement" this year, along with Scott falling off the planet, to say that they made a bad move in trading Taveras.

Just using Scott's "improvement" last year as a reason to make Pence a CF, and Willy expendable is apparently bad... but using Willy's numbers this year (in less AB's) makes this all a catastrophic deal. I'm not buying it... the Astros will survive the departure of Willy T.

Also, it was never going to be Taveras + Pence... and if you continue making the argument that it "should" have been all along, you might as well use hindsight for every move the Astros have made since the early 90's that hasn't turned out like it should have (and its STILL WAY TOO EARLY to declare this trade good/bad either way).

 

So you wanted them to hit rock bottom? Not sign Lee, not get Jennings? Assuming that Pettite wasn't coming back, what moves would you have want them to make? Stick with Hirsh, and hope his ERA stays below 5 for the entire season as our #2 pitcher?

Yes, this isn't as good of a team as the 98 one... but who says that's the only type of team where you can trade prospects for established MLB players.

If you guys really believe that Hirsh+Willy T is "mortaging our future"... you need to see the quality of some of the other young players teams are bringing up year after year. We all definitely over-value our own prospects... including Pupurra, who apparently is damned if he does (overvalue) and damned if he doesn't (trades them away).

 

they didn't trade a catcher, not for johnson, anyway. garcia, halama and guillen. buck (and dotel) was dealt for beltran.

i agree completely with major - those moves were done to make very good teams great; jennings was a panic move done to keep an OK team afloat.

 

Exactly why should we 'expect' JJ to sign here? I thought it should have been part of the deal (Astros get 72 hours to extend or no deal, type thing).

 

You keep this team afloat with these moves, call up Pence, pray that Patton stays healthy, acquire a Loretta-type skilled player, and you might have a good team again.

The core of this team is Oswalt (one of the best NL starting pitchers) and Berkman (one of the best NL hitters). You build around that.

 

Why should we have expected Carlos Lee to sign here? If Jennings performs well enough to get a big salary, he would have done what the Astros expected of him. If they can't keep him, they go out and get somebody they can keep (or call up Patton).

Either scenario doesn't change their opinion on where they projected Hirsh and Willy.

 

Because *if the Astros want him*, i.e. if he's healthy, he would like to be here & the Astros will make a fair market offer.

That may change.

 

nick, i'm not paid to evaluate players for a living; i have limited, if any access, to the minor league teams and even less access to what's being said within an organization behind closed doors. i'm merely a fan reacting to what i see.

tim purpura, otoh, does get paid to evaluate players; he has unlimited access to the minor league teams and is likely (hopefully) leading any and all discussions within the organization behind closed doors.

and if his evaluation was that pence's path to the MLs was going to be blocked by scott and/or lane, thus mandating a move to CF, then that was a terrible evaluation of scott, lane, pence and, yes, taveras.

 

Taveras wasn't the centerpiece of that deal. In fact, Colorado was trying to turn around and deal him to another team for much of the offseason, because he didn't fit with what they wanted as a starting CF. They took him because ultimately Houston's deal was the best on the table from a talent perspective (and because Hirsh was the centerpiece), not because Taveras was demanded or highly sought after by Colorado. Colorado preferred Burke.

I can't say it with complete certainty, but I'd guess they still prefer Scott to Taveras. Scott has had a somewhat slow start, but as some posters have pointed out, extended slow streaks followed by torrid stretches are somewhat typical of his career, even in the minors. I'd guess by the end of the season that he'll be an .800 OPS guy.

 

That still doesn't change the fact that you're making this evaluation AFTER the fact... or while our players are in a slump, while Taveras is having his best start to a season (or did I miss the post last year where you said that Luke Scott is a complete fluke, as he posted his 1.027 OPS in over 200 AB's).

And it still has you making your own assumption that Pence's mandated move to CF was just because of Luke Scott. And still has you making your own assumption that Luke Scott will continue to be the guy he is this year, while Taveras will continue to get on base like he never has before for the entire season.

Frankly, had they had the FORESIGHT to move Pence to CF before last year, maybe they could have brought him up after AA just like they did Taveras. Maybe they could have kept Taveras like the valuable pinch-runner/defensive replacement that he really is. Pence can clearly handle the spacious CF in MMP... we haven't lost games because of his lack of defense.

But, lets quit with the hindsight arguments... last week, Pence was player of the week... now, he's hitting into DP's instead of HR's. Such is the game that is not Football.

 

i questioned how legitimate it was; sure. and i didn't have a problem with him getting every chance this spring to prove it wasn't a fluke. but the point is that its not MY job to make the evaluation. you're trying to hold me to the same standard as pupura, as if i can only comment pre-fact.

it was a combination of things, including scott; jason lane; adam everett/craig biggio/brad ausmus; their misevaluation of burke, taveras, pence; their panic at losing pettitte...

nick, thru the first half of last year, they had holes in CF AND RF. they brought scott up and moved pence to triple A. pence was not in their plans last year.

i just think every aspect of this has been botched. i think they should have dealt burke after resigning biggio. i think they should have let jason lane go instead of preston wilson (who they then could have released after the season). i think they should have resigned pettitte. i think they gave up too much for jason jennings. and i think they should have had taveras, scott and pence vying for CF and RF in spring training.

i think a combo of taveras and pence is better than pence and scott, if all involved are playing to their potential.

 

And this is where I disagree with you the most. I don't overvalue Willy T's potential as much. I think Pence and Scott can be better if Scott plays somewhere in between the level he was at for 215 AB's last year, and his AAA numbers. I think Willy will come back to earth, given that he still doesn't walk, still strikes out, and still gets more bunt base-hits/bloop hits than he does make solid contact/XBH.

Let the season play out, and we'll see. Willy T isn't as "special" as you think he is... certainly isn't special enough to drag this thread on for 6 pages. Will he be the Boki Nachbar of the Astros? Doubtful.

(you also make way too many hindsight judgements... specifically that re-signing Pettite would have been fairly simple, despite his retirment/hurt elbow talk, and that Scott is a total fluke).

 

willy t as a baseball player outplayed boki as a basketball player comparing their first two years and its not even close. which is the crux of the argument. you say that willy is streaky and he didn't show much potential but I don't see how you can say that about a guy who batted in the high 290s his first two seasons. I don't see why everyone including porpura thinks everyone is going to improve instead of willy t. why isn't he going to improve?

 

I got hammered for saying something similar (not to Ric) recently.