He said he was gambling on other stuff before he go into betting on sports. So he could have been in debt with the Mob before and used the NBA scheme to get himself out. This isn't that hard to believe. He got locked up for this stuff. He cooperated with the Feds to get less time. The stuff he told the fed is most likely in his book. People like Stern says he has no credibility but obviously he has enough credibility for the Feds to work out a deal with him.
I don't believe the guy did not fix games. How can Donaghy or the FBI explain the Rockets-Orlando games. http://bbs.clutchfans.net/showpost.php?p=3203375&postcount=7 http://bbs.clutchfans.net/showthread.php?t=132727
I don't think this has been posted yet, but it's an interesting read on True Hoop where they went back and checked Donaghy's claims vs. what actually happened in the games. http://espn.go.com/blog/truehoop/post/_/id/11340/tim-donaghys-claims-on-trial http://espn.go.com/blog/truehoop/post/_/id/11341/did-dick-bavetta-prop-up-weaker-teams Summary is that so far none of Donaghy's claims can really be proven statistically, and in many cases the statistics argue the opposite.
Chicago landing first pick is also very suspicious. I mean what are the odds that of all teams CHICAGO gets it?
Nobody wants to talk stats So far he's said nothing of real interest. His ONLY value to the mob would be if he was fixing games or shaving points. So far he's denying that. I don't believe him, but I'm not about to buy his book to read his drivel about referee biases and 'insider info' that gave him an edge when all that info would be available to other serious gamblers and Mark Cuban -- and so far his so-called edge has been unverifiable by past data. It may 'make sense' intuitively, but so far the numbers don't back him up. Until he fesses up about actually fixing games, or can show a league directive (rather then just a preference) on influencing outcomes, his revelations are not particularly ground breaking. He was connected to the mob. And that's very damaging for the league. But so far he ain't singing!
I think that is taking it too far. Maybe he did fix his own games. But, the mob trusted his picks on games he didn't work. He must have been creating value for them. Assuming he wasn't in a conspiracy with other refs, this insider information he's claiming must be helpful.
The data doesn't back him up, JV. At least not on the claims he makes in his book. I think he knows a lot more then he's telling. I also find it hard to believe he didn't fix games (or at least point spreads). But you're right, he did have other info which could be of use. Knowing the refs would focus on moving screens for instance might be valuable info if you're betting on a certain playoff game . That's why the mob connection, alone, is devastating to the league. There's a big story here. I just don't think its in Donaghy's book.
Donaghy told ESPN radio in Dallas today that for sure the fix was in for the Mavs-Heat series as the NBA in no way wanted Cuban to win. NBA hates Cuban, do anything to get him and his team out of the playoffs. Apparently Mavs have only won one playoff game that Danny Crawford has reffed and NBA sent directives to the refs after Mavs went up 2-0 to do what they need to do to make things go the way the NBA wanted them to. I guess it's up to folks to believe it or not. I see no reason not to.
