http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1562867,00.html Iraq's Violence Spins Beyond Anyone's Control Analysis: It has been clear for some time that the U.S. is not in control of events in Iraq. But the latest sectarian bloodshed suggests that even help from Iran and Syria may not be enough to stop the slide into chaos By TONY KARON Posted Friday, Nov. 24, 2006 If this week's announcement that President Bush is to meet Iraq's Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki in the capital of neighboring Jordan raised eyebrows, by Friday it was abundantly clear why the meeting couldn't be held in Baghdad — the Iraqi capital is under siege. After a day of open sectarian warfare on the streets had claimed more than 200 lives, the city's airport is closed and its residents are forced to remain indoors under a curfew. The latest carnage comes as the focus on Iraq's immediate future shifts outside its borders — to U.S. discussions over redefining its strategy, moves by Iran and Syria to stake their own claim to a role in stabilizing Iraq, and perhaps, to competition between the two camps. President Bush is due to meet Prime Minister Maliki against a backdrop in which U.S. officials are increasingly frustrated over the failure of the Iraqi government to act against the Shi'ite militias, which are answerable to parties in the ruling coalition. Washington views the dismantling of those militias as the key to achieving national reconciliation with the Sunnis and isolating the insurgency. But following the latest attacks, the pressure on Maliki from his own base to resist U.S. demands will likely be greater than whatever leverage President Bush can bring to bear: The Iraqi leader has long made clear that he can only move against the Shi'ite militias after the Sunni insurgent threat has been removed, and the bloodshed in Sadr City Thursday will only reinforce that point. Indeed, Sadr's party threatened to quit the government if Maliki's meeting with Bush goes ahead next week — and Sadr's support has been critical to keeping him in power. The latest escalation in bloodshed began with a two-hour siege Thursday by Sunni gunmen on the Ministry of Health; then suspected Sunni insurgents detonated a series of bombs in crowded places in Sadr City and other Shi'ite neighborhoods that killed more than 160 people. Shi'ite militiamen retaliated by firing mortars at mosques and other targets in neighboring Sunni suburbs. And tensions were further inflamed by an incident in which U.S. troops, searching in Sadr City for a kidnapped American soldier, fired on a van that refused to slow down in response to a signal, killing four civilians. The incident, which highlighted the ongoing U.S. campaign against elements of Sadr's army who they see as responsible for much of the sectarian violence, makes life even more difficult for Maliki. It's a safe bet that those responsible for Thursday's bombings calculated their political effect — the most extreme wing of the Sunni insurgency, which routinely engages in the mass killing of Shi'ite civilians, has no interest in the success of a national reconciliation project in which they would be the big losers. And while Iraqi leaders issued by-now routine calls for reconciliation and calm, many observers feared that Thursday's bombings could have a similar effect to the bombing of the Shi'ite shrine at Samarra in the spring, which dramatically escalated the sectarian confrontation. It will certainly take more than a curfew to stop the cycle of retribution. Iranian leaders, meanwhile, will host Iraq's President Jalal Talabani — with Syrian leaders possibly in attendance — on Saturday, in an initiative designed to showcase Iran's intention of playing a positive role in Iraq; the meeting will also not so subtly make the point that Tehran doesn't need Washington's permission to get involved. But even though Iran traditionally wields greater influence over the Shi'ite parties that dominate Iraq's government, it may have little to offer in the immediate crisis of sectarian escalation. Likewise Syria, whose contribution would be largely to tighten border security to prevent the trickle of foreign jihadists into the territory of its neighbor, may not be able to effect events on the ground as much it might like to think. Iraq, after all, is already awash with weapons and fighters. And even the extent to which the Shi'ite political leadership is able to restrain the militias on the streets is an open question. Despite the best efforts of various, contending regional powers to shape events in Iraq, the escalating violence puts the momentum in the hands of Iraq's own contending factions. And their prospects for agreeing to a formula that can reverse the slide into full-scale civil war are not bright.
Doubtful I think these people are not happy I don't think they before we were there They ain't happy we there and I doubt they will be happy when we leave I'm not saying they cannot be happy I think they have alot to work out . .. and America being there or not does not change that Rocket River
What a mess. Just what Bush I, Schwartkopf and Colin Powell predicted would happen if we toppled Sadam. It is still sort of amazing that they were so right and Dubya and the war supporters were so wrong. Who will be the last US soldier to die for the neocon folly?
This is all because the press reports the truth on Iraq and doesn't lie to the American people about how great it's really going there, right?
Freedom isn't free! Then again, you shouldn't try to lease a BMW if you only have $100 in your bank account... ...and the BMW is for someone else ...and they don't know how to drive ...and they are going through relationship problems ...and possibly need psychiatric help ...and you're behind on bills ...and you're going through a divorce ...and you still have to deal with that terrorist problem.
Sounds like things are just beginning to escalate... Al-Sadr loyalists take over Iraqi television station http://www.realcities.com/mld/krwashington/16092045.htm BAGHDAD, Iraq - Followers of the militant Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr took over state-run television Saturday to denounce the Iraqi government, label Sunnis "terrorists" and issue what appeared to many viewers as a call to arms. The two-hour broadcast from a community gathering in the heart of the Shiite militia stronghold of Sadr City included three members of al-Sadr's parliamentary bloc, who took questions from outraged residents demanding revenge for a series of car bombings that killed some 200 people Thursday. With Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki relegated to the sidelines, brazen Sunni-Shiite attacks continue unchecked despite a 24-hour curfew over Baghdad. Al-Sadr's Mahdi Army militia now controls wide swaths of the capital, his politicians are the backbone of the Cabinet, and his followers deeply entrenched in the Iraqi security forces. Sectarian violence has spun so rapidly out of control since the Sadr City blasts, however, that it's not clear whether even al-Sadr has the authority - or the will - to stop the cycle of bloodshed. "This is live and, God willing, everyone will hear me: We are not interested in sidewalks, water services or anything else. We want safety," an unidentified Sadr City resident said as the televised crowd cheered. "We want the officials. They say there is no sectarian war. No, it is sectarian war, and that's the truth." Militia leaders told supporters Saturday to prepare for a fresh wave of incursions into Sunni neighborhoods that would begin as soon as the curfew ends Monday, according to Sadr City residents. Several members of the Mahdi Army boasted they were distributing police uniforms throughout Shiite neighborhoods to allow greater freedom of movement. The government announced it would partially lift the curfew Sunday to allow for pedestrian traffic. In the Diyala province north of Baghdad, Sunni insurgents stormed into two Shiite homes, lined up 21 men and shot them to death in front of women and children, police there said. Later in the day, a Shiite television station showed footage of the victims' burials. And in the western province of Anbar, a suicide bombing at a checkpoint in Fallujah killed a U.S. serviceman and three Iraqi civilians, according to a U.S. military statement. Another American and nine Iraqis were injured. Also Saturday, Iraq's most prominent Sunni cleric made an appeal in Cairo, Egypt, for Arab nations to withdraw recognition of Iraq's Shiite-led government and said U.S.-led troops were complicit in Iraq's sectarian crisis. Hareth al-Dhari, leader of the militant Association of Muslim Scholars, declared Iraqi efforts toward a unity government "dead" and said the current violence is political rather than theological. "The occupying forces have been giving cover to the militias and criminal gangs," al-Dhari said. "The government has been seen setting the atmosphere for them with the curfews to aid them in catching the victims and carrying out their attacks." Al-Maliki's administration acknowledged it was powerless to interrupt the pro-Sadr program on the official Iraqiya channel, during which Sadr City residents shouted, "There is no government! There is no state!" Several speakers described neighborhoods and well-known Sunni politicians as "terrorists" and threatened them with reprisal. "We'll obviously try to control them as much as we can, but when they (kill) more than 150 people in bombings, they have the right to speak," said Bassam al Husseini, one of Maliki's top advisers. "What are we going to do? We can't stop this. It's too hot right now." Sunni politicians vowed to file complaints against the channel for inciting sectarian violence. Ordinary Sunnis were shocked to hear their neighborhoods singled out for attack on the government's station. "I got four phone calls from friends telling me to change the channel to Iraqiya and see what's happening," said Mohamed Othman, 27, a Sunni resident of Ameriya, one of the districts mentioned in the program. "I think this is an official declaration of civil war against Sunnis. They're going to push us to join al-Qaida to protect ourselves." Al-Husseini, the government adviser, also affirmed that a meeting between al-Maliki and President Bush would continue as scheduled next week in neighboring Jordan, despite the threats of al-Sadr's allies to withdraw from the government if it occurs. The Cabinet met for more than an hour to hash out an agenda for the trip, he said. "The meeting will take place. That's the plan," al-Husseini said. "We need to straighten things up." Al-Husseini said the top two items of discussion would be a report from the Iraq Study Group, a bipartisan commission that will make recommendations for U.S. policy in Iraq, and a timetable for a withdrawal of U.S.-led forces. "We want to talk about it," al-Husseini said, "to ask, `How long are they going to stick around?"
Civil War... "For months now the White House has rejected claims that the situation in Iraq has deteriorated into a civil war. And, for the most part, news organizations like NBC have hesitated to characterize it as such. But after careful consideration, NBC News has decided a change in terminology is warranted -- that the situation in Iraq with armed militarized factions fighting for their own political agendas -- can now be characterized as a civil war." --Matt Lauer, this morning on The Today Show Transcript of Howard Kurtz interview with John Roberts on Reliable Sources....
It's not so much a civil war as it is a breakdown of law and order and decent into total anarchy. heck of a job jr.
