this might be the Rocket's best chance

what i'm saying is that the strong favorites to win have been considerably weakened, except the Lakers who are still doing quite well without Bynum, which makes them the hands-down favorites right now. after that it's completely wide open, so the key is just to avoid the 4th or 5th seed, and the Rockets have a good chance to get to the WCF which they haven't done since '97. which is likely against the Lakers. so at that point, they just need to play one series out of their mind. all of the other teams have issues as bad or worse than Houston right now. the Laker's aren't an overwhelmingly better team, or an outright bad matchup like Utah. they just know how to get it done in the fourth quarter; in other words they have Kobe. in four games in the regular season, the Rockets still haven't figured Kobe out, and probably never will, but the way they played Yao in the last game was very confusing if not frustrating. they played him 20 minutes straight in the second half, and didn't give him many touches. it's no surprise they started falling behind, and when Yao sat out completely, that was the ball game.

i'm not dismissing the Cavs, but the Rockets will only see them if they can make it out of the west. if the Rockets do, and that is the biggest and only real if (beating the Lakers), i like the Rockets' chances.

i already mentioned Orlando. Rafer's their starting PG. we'll get a good look of how he does tonight, but there's no way that he replaces Jameer Nelson's 17 ppg on 50% fg shooting and 44% from 3, and the opportunities that creates. even with a healthy Jameer, the Magic are only the 3rd best team in the leastern conference.

remember T-Mac on his gimpy knee this season? that's KG right now. all the things he's doing, rest, shutting it down, isn't going to fix his knee for the playoffs.

when the Rockets were losing to teams like Utah, Phoenix, and the Lakers, i was thinking that they just didn't have what it takes to get it done this year. too inconsistent, no closer, etc. but then i took notice of the string of injuries that was sweeping the league. Bynum out for most of the regular season, if he comes back he risks negatively affecting the chemistry as he works himself back into the rotation. strangely, Yao matches up better with Bynum than with Gasol. Jameer Nelson goes down for the season, prompting the Rockets to trade Alston away. KG never gets better, and Duncan only slightly so. he's also doing similar shenanigans as T-Mac (resting on the second of back-to-backs, sitting out on certain games). then the Spurs lose Manu. Chandler sprains his ankle, and is taking longer than expected to recover from it. the healthy Hornets got blown out by a Yao-less Rocket team. that just leaves Denver and Utah as difficult early round matchups.

if the playoffs started today, the Rockets would play Portland and likely win. anyone read that Oregonlive.com article? the Rockets have won 17 of 21 against the Blazers and would have swept them this year if not for the Roy miracle shot/slow clock. then they would face the dreaded Lakers, unless Dallas shocked the world, and avenged their colossal choke of 2007.

bottom line is that things just got a bit more interesting, and championship aspirations are not a pie in the sky this season. matchups are everything in the playoffs. before the Rockets had to be really lucky and really good. now they just need to be one of the two, or a smaller combination of both.