Like I said before 3>2 becomes less effective the smaller you shrink the time scale. It's effective over a course of multiple games in the regular season but when you shrink the time scale to the last few minutes of a game, the best available shot is the most efficient shot in a tight game.
When you flip a coin, there is a 50% probability that it will land on heads. However if you flip the coin 5 times only, there is a greater chance for a skewed result that doesn't match 50%. However when you flip it approaching infinite amount of time, the probability will approach 50%. The smaller the sample size the more volitile the results. Combine that with our predictability during a 7 game series, you get out late game woes.
You said his percentage was low in 14/15 when he had the second most efficient playoff performance of his career on a long run to the WCF.
I clearly was talking about his percentage from midrange being low... please read carefully before quoting
Okay but his mid range opens up the rest of the game AND is more effective in late game situations as I've explained with my other posts. Hence why he had his second greatest efficient scoring in his playoff career that season with a large resample size of post season games than this season. Ts% matters more than raw fg%.
dude, I clearly advocated for him taking more midrange in the very post u quoted... I have been advocating it for years, u aren’t saying anything new... what u posted has nothing to do with what I said U think I’m not aware he wasn’t efficient overall in the 2015 playoffs?
The diction of your post strongly implied that you prefer his current play style. I genuinely believe he was a better player in 2015 minus defense. I think his game in 2025 translates better in the playoffs. He regressed a bit in 2016 because he wasn't in the shape he was in 2015. In 2018, that Rocket team was the better because of CP3 being added with Harden when CP3 was still good. That helped out Harden a lot.
Exaxtly, we have a bunch of wannabes here. The math isn’t wrong it’s just how it’s applied. Last possession of a game, it’s tied. Which shot do you take? The one with the higher %. Same way with heart , intangibles, people don’t factor in the psychological impact of dry spells or entire quarters of missed 3s . There’s also the added benefit of opening up the floor. People dare the rockets to shoot the midrange and they prove them right
I also forgot another aspect that makes 3>2 approach less effective in late game situations in the playoffs. Legs. Your legs are tired by the 4th quarter. 3pt shooting is going to be more difficult in general in late game situations.
no idea how u got that from my post...I didn’t even allude to anything close I’ve been saying for years he should play like he did in 14-15. these are just 2 of the posts I made in the past several days in different threads “Harden bought into Moreyball too much, got indoctrinated, and now his game is limited...14-15 and even 15-16, his game was well rounded...post ups, midrange, assisted threes, PnR...his midrange and postup game is dead, he never gets spot ups, and the PnR is pretty much dead as well...it’s just ISO at the key or drive“ “teams continue to evolve the way they’re defending Harden, but we just continue with the same ol’ sh*t in 17-18, teams would switch and let Harden dance on any big man or poor defender he desired...that stopped in 18-19, but we saw the play from behind and sit on his left hand defense...now his scoring has become so dominant that many teams will resort to double teams at halfcourt unless they’ve got an incredible defender who can slow him down Have we seen anything different? We see the occasional Harden post up, but that’s it. Imagine this current Harden, but with his 14-15 season play style. He’d adapt to any defense.“ so no, I definitely do not prefer his current play style over how he used to play...never have, never will...yes, his previous game was more suited for playoff basketball despite how good and efficient he was in this year‘s playoffs...it’s really not debatable
14-15 Harden was also hero ball and would jack up shots rather than set anyone up while13 turnovers in a quarter.
I think Harden can incorporate the best aspects of his 14-15 versitility with what he's learned since then as a playmaker.
Mehh maybe just nostalgia at this point, he had the same problems creating his own shots too back then. We almost lost the Clippers series because he shot so badly in the first 4 games. After the two good games against GSW, he just started doing really stupid ****
I care more about how Harden elevates his team than his individual stats. It's some combination of Harden/MDA/Morey, but Harden is a very predictable player.
Morey and MDA has completely ruined Harden's growth as a player. Turned him into jack up 3s and layup for fouls machine all for the idea of pure efficiency.
We lost this series because we did not shoot enough threes, you are just blindly believing in an ideal while not taking any of the situation while not taking in defense. This is not good analysis. You can move off ball all you want when you have Westbrook being ass and killing spacing then your offense is gonna be terrible and so will your defense. Yet his box +/- , VORP, and Win shares have been better or near 2014-2015 while taking on better competition. See, no context involved. That year we playe Dallas and the Clippers who were 20th and 17th in defense rating. This year we played OKC and the Lakers both of whom were top 6. You just give out data without context and you talk about sample size.....sheesh
Also to add, more mid range in the Clutch is fine, but its absolutely not changing the outcome of any of the games we lost.
I can't believe he prefers a less efficient and scoring Harden. Should he take a few more mid-range shots? Sure. Should he move off the ball a little more? Of course. But he already does enough for us. He already carries us enough that I'm not going to critique his game because of a few things. I'm amazed he's got us to the playoffs each year, especially when he's been playing with G League players. The truth of the matter is, Harden is a far more dangerous player these days compared to back then. His stepback 3pt shots have saved us multiple times. He's very efficient with them, and there are no guarantees he would be that much more efficient with a mid-range shot. Also, if he takes more mid-range shots, there's a big chance he doesn't score as many points. I would rather have this Harden to the inexperienced one of 6 years ago, especially the one who didn't score as much, or when he wasn't as intelligent enough on the ball.
