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[Thinking Like Morey] Kevin Martin, Kyle Lowry, and the Value of Fouls

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by Htown57, Feb 21, 2010.

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  1. rockbox

    rockbox Around before clutchcity.com

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    I'm not sure if this was mentioned but another advantage of getting to the line is that the opposing team really can't transition off of it since you have one guy already back underneath the goal. It makes the other team a half court team regardless of what they want to do.
     
    #81 rockbox, Feb 27, 2010
    1 person likes this.
  2. RockingRox

    RockingRox Member

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    Very nice post, indeed.

    But some numbers over here is up to debate.

    1. Kyle's 40.6% shooting rate includes 3-point attempts which is much unlikely to be fouled on. Excluding this 3-point range shots, his shooting rate is at 45.4%.

    2. The shots under the hoop are more likely to be fouled as the opponents try to stop the highly possible scoring. For Kyle, those fouled shots should give him higher than the above mention 45.4% rate if they were not fouled.

    In summary, I totally agree that for good free-throw shooters, getting to the foul-line more often definitely will help the team. But the differences won't be as significant as 1.6 point/poccession vs 0.812 ppp, taking Kyle as example.

     
    #82 RockingRox, Feb 27, 2010
  3. Htown57

    Htown57 Member

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    Like durvasa, only mediocre at math. :grin:

    Last night was a GREAT example of the potential benefits of skilled foul-drawers. 28 combined FTs from Martin and Scola got us consistent offense.

    It's important to note, I think, that our offense remained efficient DESPITE POOR 3pt SHOOTING. Shooting 3-16 from 3(19%), for this team, is normally a death sentence. We start missing jump shots, we stop scoring points, we lose confidence, and we fall in a hole and can't recover. We've seen this pattern again and again and again of late. It was because of the Rockets' ability to draw fouls that we kept the numbers on the scoreboard turning despite errant 3 pt shooting.
     
    #83 Htown57, Feb 27, 2010
  4. DaDakota

    DaDakota Balance wins
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    Also, if you guys noticed, the refs swallowed their whistles and stopped calling the fouls and the Spurs came back.

    There is no way that lowry and Martin would get all those calls, the refs would eventually stop calling them.

    Maybe we can get in the penalty early, but it seems that refs make an adjustment if too many fouls are being called.

    And, some refs don't call anything....which sucks balls.

    DD
     
    #84 DaDakota, Feb 27, 2010
  5. Htown57

    Htown57 Member

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    You are correct that the numbers may be a little inflated Vs. Kyle's inside shooting numbers, but even then the difference is still substantial. Kyle's shooting percentage at the rim is 53.8%, so getting to the line for a two shot foul still nets Kyle almost half a point more per possession than a layup attempt (1.6 to 1.08).

    Another factor that needs to be accounted for is "and-1s". 5.8% of Kyle's made shots are "and-1's" and while I don't have the data on where those fouls occurred, it's reasonable to assume that a lot of them occurred "at the rim." Given that Lowry has 18 "and-1's" and 63 total makes "at the rim", it seems like "go for the layup" and "try to draw the foul" are not mutually exclusive. In any event, for Lowry especially, the more prudent decision is always to draw contact
     
    #85 Htown57, Feb 27, 2010
  6. Htown57

    Htown57 Member

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    True. In all things, there has to be balance. It would have been nice if we could hit more than 18% of our threes as well, as that likely would have forestalled the spurs comeback

    I think the point still stands, however, that, especially when going through an offensive slump, trying to draw contact is in most instances a more efficient way to score than shooting a jump shot. While the refs might swallow their whistles eventually, without our early agression, we don't have a lead to piddle away at all.
     
    #86 Htown57, Feb 27, 2010
  7. PeppermintCandy

    PeppermintCandy Member

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    I've been thinking about this too, especially regarding the playoffs when refs are known to swallow their whistles.

    Lowry struggled last post-season when he drove to the basket but didn't get the calls. Martin may find himself in a similar situation.
     
    #87 PeppermintCandy, Feb 27, 2010
  8. robbie380

    robbie380 ლ(▀̿Ĺ̯▀̿ ̿ლ)
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    is that an urban legend or fact? i just did a quick glance and yao averages more fta's and ftm's in the playoffs than in the regular season.
     
    #88 robbie380, Feb 27, 2010
  9. nebula955

    nebula955 Member

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    Well.. if you put it that way, based on FTA and adjusted by %s....

    Billups
    Durant
    Melo
    Nowitzki
    Yao

    6th man: Lebron
    7th man: Wade
     
    #89 nebula955, Feb 27, 2010
  10. weslinder

    weslinder Member

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    Great thread, great analysis, but I have a question: Does the advantage shrink during the playoffs? It seems that fewer fouls are called during the playoffs. I worry a little that we're making the mistake that some baseball teams have done, where guys that walk a lot win a lot of games in the regular season, but in the playoffs, against good pitchers, high average players are the most valuable.
     
    #90 weslinder, Feb 27, 2010
  11. PeppermintCandy

    PeppermintCandy Member

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    Yeah, scratch that, you're right. I looked at the last few seasons' playoff stats for Houston and most players' FTA stayed the same or went up from the regular season averages. Even Lowry averaged about the same 2.7-2.8 FT per game, though I thought he was being much more aggressive in the playoffs.

    Well, I guess that bodes well for Martin then.
     
    #91 PeppermintCandy, Feb 27, 2010
  12. Htown57

    Htown57 Member

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    I don't really have time to dig up data tonight (at a debate tournament coaching 'em up), but I will look into playoff foul stats when i get a chance.

    My gut is that while the threshold for what is a foul increases in the playoffs, that increased threshold corresponds to increased intensity and physicality, which ends up balancing out in terms of the number of fouls called.

    I know Mark Cuban would probably tell you too many fouls are called in the playoffs...at least, too many fouls against Dwayne Wade... :cool:

    I honestly don't know though, I'll look into it.
     
    #92 Htown57, Feb 27, 2010
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