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[Thinking Like Morey] Kevin Martin, Kyle Lowry, and the Value of Fouls

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by Htown57, Feb 21, 2010.

  1. jopatmc

    jopatmc Member

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    Durvasa,

    Would you provide us with some sort of scoring per possession stats?
     
  2. httx713

    httx713 Member

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    We're Houston, we're the Rockets; traditionally we don't get to the line and time keepers forget to run the clock ( Utah, San Antonio ) remember those... Sports Illustrated was reluctant to print a commemorative edition when the Rockets won the first title and after everybody in Houston complained about it they ran 1 edition and just for the city of Houston and neighboring towns..
    Bottom Line : We just get very little respect, heck Yao (china) which represents tons of money for this league gets no respect; Yao gets killed and he never gets to the line as he should... Same goes for Shaq, he gets fouled a lot but Shaq dishes out a lot and does not get called for fouls... R.E.S.P.E.C.T :confused: :mad: :( :mad:
     
  3. Htown57

    Htown57 Member

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    Haven't seen Durvasa in this thread, but maybe I can help. Not sure precisely what stats you're asking after, but these are the basics:

    The rockets average 93.5 possessions per game and score 101.1 pts. So the rockets score 1.08 points/posession.

    If you're looking for something more specific, there's a chance I can dig it up...i spend waaaaaaay to much time on basketball websites. :grin:
     
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  4. Deckard

    Deckard Blade Runner
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    Time well spent, as evidenced by this excellent thread. Kudos! :cool:
     
  5. Htown57

    Htown57 Member

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    Thanks.

    To answer your question: as you might expect when dealing with two of the league's best finishers, both Bosh and Stoudumire are elite foul-drawers.


    Bosh draws fouls on 20.3% of his shots and shoots about 79% from the line, Amare draws fouls on 18.9% of his shots, and shoots almost 84% at the stripe.

    Combine that with the fact that both guys shoot above 52% from the field, and you have a pair of very, very efficient scorers.
     
  6. vlaurelio

    vlaurelio Member

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    is there a stat for say give the players on our team, how often do they foul opponents in general, on the act of shooting, and while in penalty?
     
  7. melvimbe

    melvimbe Member

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    I'd love to see some sort of comparison between shot blocking and taking charges. A blocked shot can result in a change of posession as well as an intangilbe effect on the other teams efficiency. A charge is also a change of possession, but also gives the other team a foul, which can also lower the other teams efficiency if they think twice about driving the lane or simply have to set a player down do to fouls.

    From another point of view, a block shot is often easier to attempt since you don't have to be directly in front of the player to block the shot. However, the attempted block shot can backfire as it can result in your own foul as well as take you out of position for a rebound. A charge is more difficult to accomplish and is more likely to result in your own foul, and definitely puts you out of position for a rebound.

    I would guess that you should take a charge when you can. If that oppurtunity isn't there, go for the blocked shot. If that's not possible, block players vision. Lastly, just get ready for a rebound.

    Sounds like Shane Battier.
     
  8. Htown57

    Htown57 Member

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    Couldn't dig up anything that specific, but there are stats for shooting fouls comitted. Hayes, for example, has commited 82 shooting fouls. Ariza has commited 46. Battier has committed 77.

    The only other relevant stat I found was the ratio of Blocked shots to fouls commited. I find it interesting (and indicative of good help defense) that while Battier commits more shooting fouls than Ariza, he also gets his money's worth, averaging .61 "blocks per foul" to Ariza's .45
     
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  9. alethios

    alethios Member

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    read my sig - it tells all
     
  10. Htown57

    Htown57 Member

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    This would be really interesting. While a blocked shot can have an effect on the crowd, it also also doesn't gaurentee posession, even if you suceed in cleanly blocking without a foul. (nothing makes me angrier than dwight howard spiking the ball out of bounds when he's clearly enough of a freak to just tap it to himself or a teammate. Blocking the ball out of bounds does nothing more than kicked ball.../end Wooden rant)


    Sounds about right. My gut says that the primary defender should just stay between his man and the basket at all costs in order to prevent driving and passing lanes, taking a charge if the oppurtunity presents itself.

    The decison for the help D is trickier and depends a lot on who's helping and what angle they/the drive are coming from. I think Battier exemplifies the balance between taking charges and going for blocks, doing each when available.

    It obviously also depends on the skillset of the help defender. Chuck...well...chuck should probably be taking charges :p
     
  11. Htown57

    Htown57 Member

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    Fact. There are angles where it's imposible to take a charge, and you have to meet guys at the rim, either by going for the block or standing straight up and taking contact inside the restricted circle. This is what Yao gives our defense. Now, if someone gets inside the restricted circle, we're screwed. Hayes and Scola do an admirable job moving their feet, but there's only so much they can do...Come back, Yao!

    Don't know how we got on this tangent, but that's ok...
     
  12. Fyreball

    Fyreball Member

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    In all your blind hatred, have you noticed that the only real difference between last year's AMAZING post defense, and this year's abysmal post defense is Yao? If all you're doing is quantifying a "true defensive center" by the number of blocks he's getting, then you need to stick with your fantasy basketball forums. Letting Yao go in a S&T after all the work Morey has done to acquire assets to build the perfect team AROUND him would be completely asinine. I mean, I don't even understand how you can still keep calling Morey a moron when you've been given AMPLE EVIDENCE to suggest why what he's done with what he's been given is sheer BRILLIANCE. You're either an incredibly annoying troll, the most stubborn person on the planet, or have absolutely ZERO understanding of the game or the business and have no intentions of learning.
     
  13. yuisakata

    yuisakata Member

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    May I add that when the other team's in the penalty early in a quarter, their defense will become more or less lax to avoid fouling, making it easier to make field goals for other players as well.
     
  14. yuisakata

    yuisakata Member

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    And will hopefully get the other team's star players into foul trouble late in games, lol.

    Great piece of read.
     
  15. yuisakata

    yuisakata Member

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    14 points out of 14 foul shots. Point proved.
     
  16. tinywang

    tinywang Member

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    nice bump. after seeing tonight's stats, this thread was the first thing i thought of!
     
  17. linyunblue

    linyunblue Member

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    Hayes+Scola+battier+martin+lowry

    where the best drawing forls group happens?
     
  18. Dr of Dunk

    Dr of Dunk Clutch Crew

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    HTown57 trying to be durvasa, jr. :) Nice thread and discussion!
     
  19. txppratt

    txppratt Member

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    excellent thread and good analysis.

    for those of you interested, morey's podcast with bill simmons this week is a killer interview for any clutchfan to listen to. among other things, morey talked about the kevin martin acquisition. (http://espn.go.com/espnradio/player?rd=1#/podcenter/?id=4936623&autoplay=1&callsign=ESPNRADIO the 2/22 bs report)

    morey loves kevin's ability to draw fouls and help put this team in the bonus - especially late in games. morey also spoke highly of martin and how he raises his level of play against good defensive teams.

    i love this statistical side of basketball and i'm really excited about the team morey is building. it is tough to stomach not being a true contender this year, but after listening to the morey/simmons podcast i walked away feeling like: we're in good hands. we have one of the best GMs in sports.
     
    #79 txppratt, Feb 27, 2010
    Last edited: Feb 27, 2010
  20. Deckard

    Deckard Blade Runner
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    Last night made this thread gold. Like I posted during the game (from my iPhone, so I think that was it. darn teenager hogging my PC for homework on a Friday, of all the stupid, idiotic.... well, nevermind), anyway, like I posted during the game, this was a glimpse of the future, and the future is beautiful.
     

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