[Thinking Like Morey] Kevin Martin, Kyle Lowry, and the Value of Fouls

D will be better, when Lowry comes back. It will be even stronger with Yao coming back.

 

They will help on D. How much better is going to be a big question. It doesn't seem like current Rockets players are playing defense with the same intensity anymore.

 

To bad were not the lakers.

 

I too have been thinking about this "super-foul drawing" team a lot since the trade.

Two studies are worth referencing:

1. Referees attempt to even out foul calls:
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/12/01/sports/ncaabasketball/01refs.html

this might mitigate the advantage of a high-foul drawing unit.

2. Referees favor aggressors:
http://espn.go.com/blog/truehoop/post/_/id/10756/study-referees-favor-aggressors

This would indicate that since the rockets will draw a lot of fouls AND if you believe study #1 (above) that refs try to even out fouls -- is the logical conclusion for the rockets to play extremely physical defense? Why? Since they will likely be called for a lot of fouls anyway, they might as well get their money's worth. Hmmm.... anyone want to help me think through this?


*re "landry draws lots of fouls too" argument. the main diff is that landry will not be drawing fouls on post-moves that take 7 seconds to develop when Yao is back.

 

It's hard to play team defense, when your big man is shorter than every player on the roster except Brooks and Lowry. There's nobody in the paint to act as a backstop.

 

It's also hard to play team defense when your center is a 7'6 marshmellow that regularly gets posterized by midgets. I hope we get STAT this offseason and the let Yao go in a sign and trade for a true defensive center that can intimidate ppl.

 

That of course is a big problem. But when Yao was playing, there were nights that the entire team just sleep on D and let opponents score at will. The problem for this season is that happens way too often. The defensive intensity is just not there.

 

This can't be quantified either, but if the Rockets become "known" as the foul-drawing team, how many referees will adjust their calls to avoid a potentially overwhelming foul discrepancy between the Rockets and Team X?

Objectively all games should be called the same way, but I would venture to guess, after a while, some referees might use the "let them play" tactic as to avoid stoppage of play, etc.

This should be very interesting to observe in the next year, and I can't thank you enough for having the sensibility to not overreact after one game post trade, as well as looking at the long-term bigger picture.

 

too bad the refs are on david stern's payroll

 

Morey has said several times that Yao is the best offensive player in the league when the other team is in the penalty. Not just best center, best offensive player.

If Yao can come back to his pre-injury level, maybe we can sit him for the first 6 minutes in each quarter, and let Martin and Lowry put the other team in penalty first, and then unleash Yao on them. This way Yao plays less minutes, as well as playing at his best efficiency.

 

qft...

 

great post.. appreciate the numbers added to something a lot of us kinda knew in general

 

That's exactly what the Jazz have been doing since the beginning of time. Play extremely physical defense, fouling on every possession, and forcing the refs to call it every time, which they do not because if they did, every Jazz game would take 10 hours to complete.

 

And if you believe that Morey will be after Bosh seriously this summer.....just Wow!

That's a lot of ability to draw fouls. Would another team's starters even play all that often, or would they all be riding the bench in foul trouble?

 

I love threads like these. THERE IS ACTUALLY REALLY GOOD INFO HERE!!
great post

 

Martin's days of going to the ft line are over the second he put on a rockets uniform

 

Wow. What are we going to be like next sesaon when we trade our lottery pick, Jordan Hill, and some expirings for Lebron James?

 

factor in the "taking charge" monsters of Battier, Scola, Hayes and now Jefferies. Rox's game will be at least 3 hours every game.