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They have figured it out

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by Zboy, Sep 8, 2020.

  1. supaflyz

    supaflyz Member

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    Yeah I saw this during the game too. Westbrook should of passed it to him. He had an open look, but westbrook drove it in and had a turnover.
     
  2. J.R.

    J.R. Member

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    [...]

    Harden often recedes toward half court once he relinquishes control of a possession. The Lakers' late-trap strategy is a bet on Harden's passivity.

    (This isn't limited to Lakers traps. With Game 3 slipping away, Harden faded out of three straight empty Houston possessions spanning 6:10-5:10 of the fourth quarter. He never touched the ball on the middle one. On the first and third, he passed off after crossing half court and did not touch it again -- or anytime once the shot clock ticked past 18. Westbrook was on the bench. The possessions ended with: a Covington turnover; Kuzma blocking a flailing Jeff Green attempt near the rim; and Green throwing the ball out of bounds.)

    [...]

    The Lakers have executed their traps well almost regardless of location. They doubled Harden 55 times combined over Games 2 and 3, and gave up only one point per possession after those traps, per tracking from ESPN Stats & Information -- well below Houston's overall average. They doubled Harden twice as often in the second half of Game 3 compared to the first 24 minutes, and held the Rockets to a measly 0.54 points per possession in that half, per ESPN Stats & Info. Tracking data from Second Spectrum is a little less sanguine about the Lakers' trapping, but paints it as broadly effective.

    Houston has some adjustments. The Rockets can set picks for Harden at half court, and give him a long runway. Harden attacking earlier, pre-trap, would help to the extent it's possible to preempt the traps. Switching up the starting points of possessions -- left, right, middle -- might prevent the Lakers from getting into a rhythm.

    If Houston is determined to run some pick-and-roll, it can vary Harden's screener -- Westbrook is useful in that role -- and bust out some screen-the-screener actions to hold up the Lakers' second defender.

    The bigger issue is Westbrook's up-and-down performance. He was one of Houston's key trap-breakers in the regular season, cutting into open space and zooming for layups. Those layups are harder against the rim protection of James and Davis; Westbrook can't force it when those two are girding to challenge him and kick-out passes are available. (Harden has also forced a few close shots when easy passes have been there.)

    Houston is minus-19 in 18 minutes with Harden sitting -- and Westbrook playing -- over the past two games after winning those minutes in Game 1. Five of Westbrook's 10 turnovers over those two games have come in those 18 minutes, and Westbrook turnovers -- and misses at the basket -- ignite the Lakers' devastating fast-break machine.

    (There is really no statistical evidence to back this up, but I get this occasional nagging feeling that if the Rockets ever miss the presence of a screen-and-dive center, it is during these Westbrook-only minutes. Westbrook fares well in a spread pick-and-roll attack, but the Rockets don't have a screen-setter who presents any vertical threat. A lot of these Westbrook-only possessions consist of aimless passing along the perimeter before someone attacks a set defense one-on-one. Westbrook has a tougher time than Harden beating his own defenders, because they wait for him in the paint.)

    The Lakers have also won (by a little) the Westbrook-Harden tandem minutes. Houston is plus-9 in 42 Harden-only minutes so far. There is a chunk late in the first and third quarters when Westbrook and LeBron rest at the same time -- leaving Harden to face the LeBron-less Lakers. Watch those minutes. It will be hard for Houston to extend this series to six or seven games if they don't win them.

    This Game 4 is a test of Houston's will. The Rockets had chances to win Games 2 and 3, and lost both. That can be demoralizing. Will they wilt, or fight? Offense usually comes easy to the Rockets, but the Lakers are making them fight for everything.
     

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