http://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2016-brexit-watch/ 46.2% for stay, 44.3% for leave, dead heat? Sure. But 9.6% "undecided". What was the final tally for leave? 51.9%. But yeah, the polls got it right. Sure. I'd like to quote the immortal Starship Troopers: "Someone made a mistake. Someone made a big ******* mistake." http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/president/ You read the news and think this is in the bag for Clinton. But all I see are races that easily go the other way if most of the respondents (let's call them, the closet deplorables) who put down "Johnson" break for Trump the last minute. What you have is such a polarizing, rationally embarrassing but (to some, or perhaps to many) viscerally satisfying candidate in Donald Trump that I just can't bring myself to trust that the 5-10% who put down "Johnson" will not vote for Trump when the rubber meets the road. Yes! Hopefully most backers of sanity will have this attitude rather than the haughtiness displayed in the rest of this thread.
If you wanna compare Britain's basically non exestany polling practices with our over 100 years of polling be my guest. Prepare to be disappointed in your self delusion.
Fortunately most Republicans learned their lesson from 2012 and only the most ignorant fringes are going down that road again. If the Dems didn't have a piece of radioactive waste as a candidate, you might have a point.
I'm not going to knock the OP in this thread. I do think Brexit might be a bad example and feel pretty confident that Clinton will win. I've offered to make a tip jar bet a few times but no one has taken it. Of course things could still change in the next couple of weeks and there is a chance that Trump could still win. This thread isn't a lifeline to Trump supporters but more warning about complaceny and I agree with the OP that this election shouldn't be taken for granted.
Except many of these polls account for that. They tend to ask "Clinton vs Trump vs Johnson vs Stein" and then also a "Clinton vs Trump". In virtually every poll that does this, Johnson actually takes more votes from Clinton than Trump. So if people don't vote for Johnson at the last minute, it most likely just widens the margin for Clinton.
