[The Z Report] Draft Primer: Texans’ team needs on offense and prospects to watch for

Draft Primer: Texans’ team needs on offense and prospects to watch for

Every team creates their draft board with an understanding that they would like to address best player available at a position of need. Just because a team has a greater need at guard, that doesn’t mean they will take a guard over another player who is much better and plays a different position.

Never, ever forget that the idea of a general manager should always be to find good football players and to stack your roster with good players. Good players not only win football games, they also help to create quality depth so that when teams have to let good players leave (2012 Texans offseason anyone?) they have talent to take over.

Let’s take a look at the offensive positions and give them a “need number” and a “draft probability numbers.” For “need,” we will use a scale of 1-6 with 6 being the highest priority and 1 being a position of great strength on the roster. For “draft probability” we will use percentages that the position in question will be drafted at some point.

I will feature the defensive needs and prospects this weekend.

Texans Team Needs


Quarterback
Need – 2 Draft Probability – 50%

Matt Schaub is the starter and will probably be extended either after or during the season. However, his extension could be determined by his overall healthy. Still, with T.J. Yates showing he has potential, this isn’t a high need position. Despite that fact, I still think the Texans will take a look at a QB late in the draft as hitting on a late-round developmental QB can pay off in the future. I would draft a QB late in the draft at least every other year as they are like lottery tickets.

Rounds 4-7: Ryan Lindley, San Diego St. / Chandler Harnish, N. Illinois / B.J. Coleman, Tenn-Chat. / Russell Wilson, Wisconsin


Running Back
Need – 2 Draft Probability – 30%

The Texans have their top two RB positions locked down and they can find a third running back off the street if they want to. While this is not a high priority need by any stretch, if they find a running back who they believe has special teams potential and who they see as a steal in the later rounds, they could look to take that player and plug him in at the RB3 position which would also give them depth/insurance against the possibility of Ben Tate leaving in a couple of years.

Rounds 4-7: Robert Turbin, Utah State / Ronnie Hillman, San Diego St. / Michael Smith, Utah State / Tauren Poole, Tennessee / Lennon Creer, La. Tech


Wide Receiver
Need – 6 Draft Probability – 90%

Wide Receiver is a top priority and must be addressed within the first three rounds and preferably within the first two rounds. Andre Johnson’s injuries last year were non-contact which makes you wonder if he is starting to breakdown. Kevin Walter handles himself at the WR2 position, but he didn’t step up as a target when Andre went down and he is one of the lowest ranked starters in the league at yards after catch. Jacoby Jones is on the roster for now thanks to a lack of depth, but I’m sure the Texans would love to replace him with a less expensive option. The depth at this position is awful which means would could see more than one WR drafted.

Rounds 1-2: Stephen Hill, Georgia Tech / Kendall Wright, Baylor / Rueben Randle, LSU / Mohamed Sanu, Rutgers / AJ Jenkins, Illinois / Brian Quick, App. State
Rounds 3-4: Joe Adams, Arkansas / Marvin McNutt, Iowa / Chris Givens, Wake Forest / Keyshawn Martin, Michigan State / Nick Toon, Wisconsin / Greg Childs, Arkansas
Rounds 5-7: Devon Wylie, Fresno St / Jarius Wright, Arkansas / Jermaine Kearse, Washington / Jeff Fuller, Texas A&M / Juron Criner, Arizona


Tight End / Fullback
Need – 3 Draft Probability – 40%

The idea that the Texans can just plug and play Garrett Graham at TE is a little scary to me as I don’t know how he can block yet, but that is likely what the Texans will do. Graham will take over for Joel Dreesen who was a solid blocker and allowed the Texans to utilize 2-TE sets effectively. The Texans don’t view James Casey as a full-time TE so it isn’t beyond the realm of possibility that they look for a TE late in the draft. The Texans need another hammer-head FB to pair with Casey at that spot, but I expect the Texans to find that position via veteran free agent before camp and with an undrafted free agent.

Round 1: Coby Fleener, Stanford
Round 4-7: Rhett Ellison, USC / Kevin Koger, Michigan /


Center/Guard
Need – 4 Draft Probability – 60%

The fear of losing Chris Myers ran rampant around Texansville and not just because Mike Brisiel and Eric Winston were gone. The Texans don’t have the depth they need at guard and center and the C/G position needs to be addressed in the draft. Shelly Smith has some potential as a backup, but there needs to be competition at the guard spot and the Texans probably need another player who can swing between guard and center if Antoine Caldwell is going to be the full-time starter at guard. Figuring out where the Texans value the guard position in this draft is tough for me to figure out. I don’t think it will be a priority within the first three rounds, but I’ll include a couple of prospects just in case.

Round 1-3: Amini Silatolu, Midwestern St / Jeff Allen, Illinois
Rounds 4-7: James Brown, Troy / Jeff Adams, Columbia / Senio Kelemete, Washington / Jaymes Brooks, Virginia Tech / Bryce Harris, Fresno St. / Desmond Wynn / Joe Looney, Wake Forest


Offensive Tackle
Need – 3 Draft Probability – 50%

True enough, the Texans lost Eric Winston, but I think there are some who are over-valuing the Texans need/desire to replace Winston via the draft. Rashad Butler has starting experience and has the long arms that are coveted by offensive line coaches in pass protection. He understands the offense and will almost assuredly be the starter this year. While Butler has only one year left on his deal, the Texans really like the potential of last year’s 7th round draft pick, Derek Newton. Newton is a better overall athlete than Butler and could be the right tackle of the future. With Duane Brown set to get a huge deal next year, it is unlikely that the Texans will look at a tackle within the first two rounds. If they do draft a tackle, I doubt it will be until the middle to late rounds.

Rounds 3-4: Brandon Mosley, Auburn / Tom Compton, South Dakota
Rounds 5-7: Markus Zusevics, Iowa / Tony Bergstrom, Utah / Andrew Datko, FSU

 

Defensive draft needs and potential prospects for the Texans

Every team creates their draft board with an understanding that they would like to address best player available at a position of need. Just because a team has a greater need at guard, that doesn’t mean they will take a guard over another player who is much better and plays a different position.

Never, ever forget that the idea of a general manager should always be to find good football players and to stack your roster with good players. Good players not only win football games, they also help to create quality depth so that when teams have to let good players leave (2012 Texans offseason anyone?) they have talent to take over.

Let’s take a look at the defensive positions and give them a “need number” and a “draft probability numbers.” For “need,” we will use a scale of 1-6 with 6 being the highest priority and 1 being a position of great strength on the roster. For “draft probability” we will use percentages that the position in question will be drafted at some point.

Texans Team Needs


Defensive End
Need – 3 Draft Probability – 70%

Antonio Smith and J.J. Watt are the premier 3-4 DEs in pro football right now, but Smith has only two years left on his contract and there isn’t as much depth at this position as the Texans need. I feel fairly confident that the Texans will target another DE in the draft, but I don’t think it will be an early round priority.

Rounds 3-4: Derek Wolfe, Cincinnati / Tyrone Crawford, Boise State.
Rounds 5-7: Akiem Hicks, Regina / Jaye Howard, Florida


Nose Tackle
Need – 3 Draft Probability – 50%

Texans fans have been calling for a big space-eater at NT for quite awhile now, but Wade Phillips isn’t married to that concept in his 3-4. Phillips’ defensive history has had him coaching space-eaters and 1-gappers so it is hard to target one body type when looking at this position. Shaun Cody is in the last year of his deal and the Texans are unlikely to give him a multi-year deal due to cap constraints so there is a good chance they will need to add a NT this year or next.

Rounds 3-5: Mike Martin, Michigan / Hebron Fanguapo, BYU / Marcus Forston, Miami
Rounds 6-7: DeAngelo Tyson, Georgia / Vaughn Meatoga, Hawaii


Outside Linebacker
Need – 5 Draft Probability – 80%

Brooks Reed did an awesome job as a rookie last year and was well worth the 2nd round pick the Texans used on him. With that said, he was considered to be a rotational player when he was drafted and there is no reason to believe that he couldn’t fall back into the role if the Texans look to get a more talented player at that position to replace Mario’s spot on the roster. You can never have enough quality pass rushers and the Texans are highly likely to add another pass rusher.

Rounds 1-2: Nick Perry, USC / Chandler Jones, Syracuse /Shea McClellin, Boise St. / Vinny Curry, Marshall / Bruce Irvin, W. Virginia
Rounds 3-5: Jake Bequette, Arkansas / Miles Burris, SDSU


Inside Linebacker
Need – 2 Draft Probability – 30%

With the addition of Bradie James and by re-signing Tim Dobbins, the Texans are much less likely to even glance at the ILB position since Brian Cushing and Daryl Sharpton are both locked in. I’m not saying that Dobbins, James or even Sharpton are the long-term answers next to Cushing, but the Texans have put a band-aid on the depth at that position so I don’t see them addressing that position unless it is very late in the draft.

Round 5-7: Tank Carder, TCU / Najee Goode, W. Virginia / Emmanuel Acho, Texas


Cornerback
Need – 3 Draft Probability – 50%

Make no mistake about it, the Texans played much better in the secondary last year and that included 2nd-year CB Kareem Jackson. However, Jackson isn’t “locked in” as a reliable starter for the upcoming years and his only, true backup (Jason Allen) is gone. Brandon Harris was brought in to compete for the nickel CB position, but Brice McCain did a good job with that position last year. The Texans still don’t know what they have with Brandon Harris or Roc Carmichael so it feels like a toss-up regarding whether or not they choose to add some competition at that position.

Round 2-3: Josh Norman, Coastal Carolina / Dwight Bentley, LA-Lafayette / Casey Hayward, Vanderbilt
Rounds 4-5: Jayron Hosley, Virginia Tech / Trevin Wade, Arizona / Coryell Judie, Texas A&M


Safety
Need – 2 Draft Probability – 30%

Glover Quin and Danieal Manning are locked into starting positions and it is unlikely that the Texans consider safety depth as a priority come draft day. There is a chance the Texans could look to add to the safety position if they feel like the players is also a demon on special teams, but I wouldn’t expect them to target a safety until much later and I also wouldn’t expect them to draft a safety and move Quin back to CB.

Rounds 5-7: Charles Mitchell, Mississippi State / Brandon Taylor, LSU / Tavon Wilson, Illinois / Aaron Henry, Wisconsin