krosfyah, please look at the stats a little closer: elie played in the nba from the 1990 season with GS for two years which he made the playoffs both years. Then in 92-93 he played with portland and made the playoffs again. He averaged double digit scoring both years with GS. played a total of 17 playoff games before coming to Houston in 93. I wouldn't consider that CBA material. http://www.databasebasketball.com/players/playerpage.htm?ilkid=ELIEMA01 Horry did get his experience in 92-93 season....so 10/5 is no good anymore? Then why did we trade for Battier??? Its brilliant considering he was booed when drafted. Maxwell - I didn't know avg 17 points a game was a cast-off? He played for the spurs and rockets until his fiasco in 95. http://www.nba.com/playerfile/vernon_maxwell/index.html Basically our team came together around 90-91 season and played together for 4 years before making noise. Horry came in 92 and cassell in 93. the chemistry was there based on continuity throughout the early 90s and just added the two young guys in the draft. You are correct in 93-94 nobody predicted us to win, however we were one of the elite teams that year based on our previous season showing of 2nd round 7 game defeat to the sonics. The 94 team just didn't come together that year with dream and all of a sudden played championship basketball. They developed together for a few years and added a couple players to complete the team. I REPEAT, they played together for a few years before creating chemistry! How else did they start the season 22-1? This year we have actually cleaned house with everyone but yao, tmac and rafer and juwan that will play extended minutes. Now this team may do damage but not enough to get them to a title. If they stick with most of the personnel and develop together then they should be able to increase their chances with a year or two.
Elie graduated in '85 and was drafted in the 7th round. He didn't play in the NBA until 1990. So I was mistaken that he didn't come to the Rockets DIRECTLY from the CBA but he was definately NOT considered a top-teir NBA guard. I wouldn't call 10/5 brilliant ...I'd call it adequate. Horry's brilliance came starting in '93 with his clutch plays ...not his stats. In '93, Horry was still an unknown. Maxwell was traded from the Spurs because he was an off-court disaster hence my use of the term cast-away. Elie was also added in '93. Smith and Maxwell was added in '91, IIRC. Besides Thorpe, the team had a bunch of guys that never amounted to anything in the NBA like Chris Jent and Scotty Brooks. EDIT: Besides our starting lineup and Matt Bullard (who was unknown in '93), our team had a bunch of low-impact NBA players. By low-impact I mean guys that were journey-men AT BEST. Yes, we were elite but nobody expected us to contend. In '93-'94, Hakeem was 1st team NBA, the season MVP, the finals MVP and the defensive player of the year. He is the ONLY player to accomplish that. That's what I'd call going midevil on your ass ...and that's why the team gelled. Hakeem made everybody's jobs easier as further evidenced that he had his best year in assists in '93. Given that we have Yao AND TMac, we don't need an individual performance like Hakeem in '93 but we need Yao to have career #'s and we need TMac to be better than he has the past 3 seasons or so. If they do, I beleive we'll contend. If they don't, we won't contend. Simple as that. You've just mentioned our entire starting unit except Battier whom I have no doubts he'll gel in a short time. In '93, besides our starting unit the team was a bunch of scrubs ...not unlike our team in '06. ...and that gives me hope. As long as we have Yao/TMac capable of playing really really well ...we have a chance to contend.
I don't think you are giving enough credit to guys like thorpe, maxwell, smith and elie....These guys weren't journeymen. I wouldn't consider the rockets as their 2nd team to play with as journeymen. These guys have proven themselves as able to score double digits or double digit rebounding before hakeem became god that year. Comparing this cast to that one is unfair. Battier is the only one who has proven himself. Snyder? yeah right! lucas? vegas summer league? please novak? rookie Rafer and Juwan have proven a little however i don't believe they will be here long enough to gel with tmac and yao...Juwan is the only player who has played long enough with tmac and yao, rafer hasn't (20 games?) so you might as well stick him in the newbie category. And who considered elie a top tier guard anyways? I didn't. He was a proven vet. Smith came on board in 89. The reason dream had career high in assists is because THE SUPPORTING CAST MADE THEIR SHOTS. Thorpe avg double digits in scoring and rebounding a couple times. Like i said, these guys played decent before their run, i wouldn't call them scrubs or journeymen either. Last year with yao, we couldn't hit shots. Hence no assists for yao. If you think this team can compete for a title with great play from tmac and yao, then that is your opinion. I just hope your high hopes doesn't disappoint you.
If all things are held constant, the Rocket's success for this coming season and potentially the next 3 seasons is the success and development of the 4 following players: Novak Lucas Vspan Synder If 2 out of the 4 become good bench players- then I see a 2nd Round appearance If 1 can become an average starter and another a good bench player - then we can compete for a Championship. It boils down to hitting on at least 50% of the potential talent on our team. If the Rockets do worse than this team is going no where. At the very worst we need at least 2 good bench players in order to compete with the top dogs. Assuming health is not an issue, we will always be a playoff team with Yao, T-mac, and Battier; but the next level depends on the development of these 4 guys. Notice how Vspan, Novak, Synder, and Lucas all have multi-year deals. I think the Rockets are counting on them developing into the supporting cast of a Championship team.
I am not saying teams cant be successful with a perimeter oriented PF. I am saying the Rockets need rebounders. Stromile Swift is gone. But no matter how bad Swift played for the Rockets, Swift is a better rebounder than Shane Battier. All the off-season acquries of the Rockets are not known for rebounding. The rebounding department of the Rockets is weakened. So who's going to rebound? Yao is a 10-12 rpg player but an average rebounder of his size. Yao needs help in rebounding. No matter what style a team plays, the team that can win the rebound battle will certainly increase its chance to win games. Chuck Hayes maybe some of the Rockets fans' answer for rebounding. But I dont think Chuck Hayes will see more minutes in the coming season under our head coach. His play time probably will still be around 12-15 mpg. If Sura can play, he will certainly help the Rockets. Sura is a good rebounder for a guard of his size and he gets the nose for the ball. But how effective will Sura be after his long recovery from surgeries?
I wouldnt disagree with you that Troy Murphy is a good rebounder. But I will question if Troy Murphy will still be a 10 rpg player if he is not playing for the Warriors. I think Troy Murphy is in a very unique situation and he benefits from the play style of the Warriors. Warriors is the team that jack up most 3 pt FGA per game in the ast regular season. As you said, long shots result in long rebounds. As a result, the opponent teams of the Warriors were forced out of the paint, it resulted in open lanes for TM to slash in for offensive boards too.
I really agree about the rebounding. We are way short of the mark on the boards. Ming himself is not a great rebounder - and he's gonna need to be this season caus he's got no one to relieve him of those duties except Mutombo, who's another year older and only capable of spot minutes. And as you mentioned Hayes who is not gonna cut it, as much as we'd all like to see him have success. Getting Swift out of here was a good thing, but we need to get some help on the boards before November. Otherwise we are gonna get waxed in the rebounding numbers, which in turn means we are gonna have to shoot a high percentage to win games. And we are still far from a great shooting team.
How much do the Rockets really lose, though, in the rebounding department with Battier as our PF versus Swift? Not all rebounds are equal. Some players get nice rebounding stats, but they're not active rebounders. They don't tip the ball to teammates, the don't chase after balls outside their immediate area, they don't block out to help a teammate get the ball. Such players are "good rebounders" only on the surface. But what really matters, as far as rebounding goes, is how you impact your team's rebounds. For example, by examining the top 20 5-man units for Memphis last year along with team rebounding%, 6 of those lineups had Battier at PF. Battier played around 740 minutes at PF last season, and about 604 of those minutes came in playing in one of those 6 lineups. This was the front line for those lineups, along with the TmReb%: Code: [COLOR=Navy]min PG SG SF PF C TmReb%[/COLOR] 201 Jackson Miller E.Jones Battier Gasol 47.5% 157 Stoudamire Miller E.Jones Battier Gasol 44.0% 115 Atkins Miller E.Jones Battier Gasol 55.5% 53 Jackson Miller D.Jones Battier Gasol 47.5% 44 Jackson Miller D.Jones Battier Wright 46.5% 34 Atkins Jackson E.Jones Battier Gasol 53.5% 48.4% For the other 14 lineups: Code: [COLOR=Navy]min PG SG SF PF C TmReb%[/COLOR] 224 Stoudamire E.Jones Battier Gasol Wright 50.0% 49 Atkins E.Jones Battier Gasol Wright 50.0% 49 Atkins E.Jones Battier Gasol Tsakalidis 47.0% 41 Jackson E.Jones Battier Gasol Wright 52.0% 315 Jackson Miller Battier Gasol Wright 50.0% 243 Jackson Miller E.Jones Gasol Wright 47.0% 206 Stoudamire Miller Battier Gasol Wright 49.5% 85 Atkins Miller E.Jones Gasol Tsakalidis 50.0% 72 Atkins Miller Battier Gasol Tsakalidis 53.0% 62 Atkins Miller Battier Gasol Wright 42.5% 42 Atkins D.Jones Battier Gasol Tsakalidis 46.5% 36 Atkins Miller E.Jones Gasol Wright 48.0% 48 Jackson Miller Battier Warrick Gasol 53.0% 34 Jackson Miller D.Jones Warrick Gasol 53.0% 49.3% You can see that there isn't much of a difference in overall TmReb% between the two groups. Even though when Battier was playing PF, there was a less able rebounder (statistically) at the SF and C positions, compared to when Battier is playing SF. It would appear, then, that Memphis didn't lose much on the boards when Battier was playing PF.
About Chuck.. I don't know how people get the idea that Van Gundy hates him even now. Maybe VG didn't want him before he actually had him, but all indications are that Van Gundy likes him now. There was the statement from the "breakfast with coach", there are also repeated statements from both management and Chuck himself that his problem last season was conditioning-- that he ran out of energy after a short burst of great play-- and he's been working his ass off on conditioning this summer. He'll play more when he can play more. I really don't see why Van Gundy would be artificially limiting Chuck's minutes. As to Battier... he actually averaged 2 offensive rebounds a game last year and the year before. Great for a SF who spots up for 3s on many plays and decent even for a PF. Dirk, for example, averages less offensive rebounds. Battier's defensive rebounding numbers are low because he's checking a perimeter player much of the time. He'll be just fine if he is around the defensive basket more.
I dont know how much difference in rebounding for the Rockets if Shane Battier plays PF. But I believe there is at least a small loss in rebounds for the Rockets. As for your quoted stats for TmReb%, it's obviously 50.0% > 47.5%. One freaking rebound can already decide a win/loss.
Firstly, I dont care about the relationship between CH and JVG and never take that into the play time consideration for CH. As a matter of fact, CH could get 13+ mpg last season was mainly due to injuries. I hope this season the Rockets will be healthy. With a healthy Rockets roaster, CH should be very happy to play 10-15 mpg in the coming season. Secondly, to compare Battier to Dirk is odd. Battier and Dirk are different players . Dirk is a scoring machine. Battier is a good defender. When players dont score, they have to provide defense and rebound. That's how the game works.
This is an important point. Battier is a very strong offensive rebounder. Offensive rebounding, at the individual player level, has a greater impact on overall team rebounding then individual defensive rebounding. The reason is that if you're not getting a defensive board, it's likely one your teammates will. But offensive rebounds tend to be boards you're taking away from the opponent. Using data from 82games, I can estimate Battier's Oreb% and Dreb% while he was playing PF for Memphis, as well as for Swift last season. I assume (conservatively) that the ratio of offensive rebounds to defensive rebounds stays the same as Battier goes from SF to PF, as well as for Swift as he goes from PF to C. I get the following conservative estimates: Code: as PF Overall Oreb% Dreb% Oreb% Dreb% Swift 7.9% 13.2% 8.4% 14.1% Battier 7.6% 11.7% 6.4% 9.8% And considering that, at the individual level, offensive rebounding has twice the impact on the team's reb% as defensive rebounding, you can derive how much more valuable Swift's rebounding was than Battier's, while both played PF. ratio = (2/3)*[ 7.9/7.6 ] + (1/3)*[ 13.2/11.7 ] = 1.069 Swift has a slight edge, but it's not that big. It's also likely that Battier's Oreb% goes up much more than his Dreb% when he plays PF, and the same with Swift when he plays center. So, in actually, this ratio could very easily turn out even or even in Battier's favor. And when you factor in Battier's hustle, deflections, ability to cover for teammates, etc. -- it's silly to think we're losing too much on the boards.
Not sure where you're getting the 50% and 47.5% numbers. The proper comparison is more 49.3% to 48.4%. Basically, this would amount to less than a rebound per game. It really isn't that significant. Plus, Battier would have Yao and Tracy with him most of the time ... which is much better than Gasol/Eddie Jones as a rebounding tandem. The Rockets will do fine.
I'm imaging that in the next season. Yao contributes 26+10+2, and Tracy 20+6+6. I think Yao should be the top one. Tracy can and should be more versatile. If Batman and the 'Rookies' CD signed in this summer can play the roles, we can win in the west semi-final, that's the bottom line. Then we can talk about the champion...
Here's what Wikipedia said in a HIGHLY complimentary write up of Dream: Olajuwon's fame was well-deserved, as the Rockets team was probably one of the most lightly-loaded championship teams of all time. Neither the other starters (Robert Horry, Otis Thorpe, Vernon Maxwell and Kenny Smith) nor sixth man Sam Cassell were considered stars at the time, documented by the fact that Hakeem was the only Rockets All-Star player that year I LOVED that '93 team because I'm an underdog kind of guy. But lets be real, on paper that team didn't compare well to the competition. ...and that's why I have hope for this year. Keep hope alive. You are missing my point. I'm not comparing them right now. I hoping that I CAN compare them in the future. That Houston team was made up of mostly unknowns BEFORE we won the championship. I'm hoping that can happen again. It is MUCH easier to make shots when nobody is guarding you ...which tends to happen when you have the most dominant player in the league ...which they did. It isn't about high hopes or disappointment ...it is reality. With high play from TMac and Yao and our guys hitting open shots, I guarantee we will go down fighting. If we are seeded low, nobody will want to face us 1st ...just like in '93. If TMac/Yao don't play well or if our guys can't hit open shots, we're first round fodder at best ...regardless of who else we bring on board. The success of a team lies with how far their star player can take them 99x outta 100. Look at 2005 when most experts predicted the Mavs in 5 or 6 games ...we went down fighting. Also consider the new playoff format as we wouldn't have faced Dallas in the 1st round. We easily would have made it to the 2nd round that year as we would have played Seattle instead of Dallas. This year, Yao could to be playing at a higher level than in 2005 plus our starting line-up has had more time together. So I like our chances in 2007 better than in 2005.
Just as a frame of reference, the championship Rocket teams were bottom 5 in the league in rebounding.
You do know that Wikipedia can be corrected by anybody right? So I can simply go to wikipedia and deleted that sentence about the Championship team.
It's amazing how everyone underestimates Rafer Alston. I can't believe there is so much hate for him. I haven't even read the "article" by Clutch because I know it is just going to diss Rafer and that is not cool. Everyone acts like he is a scrub who has never played ball in his life. With the Three that everyone is talking about, I think we fail to understand how important Rafer will be to this team next year and Yao's continued development.
