The truth(s?) about Jeremy Lin

I do think its very encouraging though that according to hoopsstats, he is statistically a top 10 pg against playoff teams. Although he isn't even top 30 against lottery teams. I'd prefer it this way than the other way around though. So there's the consistency issue again. Still simply comes down to playing smarter every game.

 

If this forum could go a couple of days without yet another thread about Jeremy Lin, regardless of the intentions of the OP's, for good, for ill, or just indifferent, I'd probably be doing cartwheels. I am beyond sick of every game thread turning into a thread about Jeremy, and the endless threads littering the GARM about Jeremy. My guess is that if he reads this forum (god, I hope he doesn't!), he's sick of it as well. We have a team, folks, not a brilliant one man show, or a one man train wreck. Get a ****ing grip.

 

Lol just because he was book smart and legitimately got into Harvard that doesnt necessarily translate to bball iq. But how is he not a smart bball player? Sure he doesnt have the basketball intelligence of a Kobe Bryant or Steve Nash but he is a smart basketball player.

 

So much this.

 

It took both Nash and Stockton several years to really develop into good and then elite point guards...

 

Yes please.

 

Of course the stats don't tell you everything, but if you do a search on basketball reference to see which point guards have averaged 17-8 or a better in a season, you get a list comprised mainly of HOF and all- star players. So if you think Lin can average that in a season, then you think he must have potential to be an all-star calibre guard.

 

I support our players. Including Lin, he's a good kid with a great work effort. Let him get more experience, he'll learn soon enough or be gone

 

My analysis of Lin:

Get us to the playoffs... Perform in the playoffs... And dont be the reason we lose when we get there......

 

Can you also get the stat of ball usage for all the guards listed there? Thank you.

 

Just realized while we are here everyday fighting tooth and nail with each other about Lin's potential Lin's bust Lin this Lin that, Mr. Lin himself is now all laughing and enjoying his film screen there in Austin. How silly we fans are. SMH.

 

In my opinion, Lin is just an average starting point guard. Right now, a tad below, in the future, a tad above.

Lin's fans need to take it easy.

 

I think instead of focusing on the player, you should focus on the player's performance in the system. Quite simply, Mchale's system doesn't play to Lin's strengths. So until the system changes, or Lin learns to better improve his jumper, he will always be wildly inconsistent, or rather, be playing at the current level now that is considered below average.

 

I'll just help by saying Pace shouldn't have inflated his stats because again, he takes the fewest shot. If it was high octane attributing to the factor, it would show that he takes more shots (WB). So quite the contrary, Lin's stats are deflated because he takes less shot.

 

Totally wrong analysis. Lin's skill ceiling is incredibly high. I agree his athleticism isn't elite but his first step is. So, offensively, he has an incredibly high ceiling. He doesn't need to finish explosively in the lane if he develops a runner. Defensively, he is lacking in some lateral quickness but he's bigger than most PGs so that mitigates it.
In 3 years he is just outside the top 3 PGs in the game easily. He'll be one of the best shooting PGs ala Steve Nash and with his size he'll easily be able to get his shot off against most PGs.

 

Very good analysis.

 

A fast paced offense should inflate his assist categories because of the increased shot attempts. I think Jeremy has potential. He struggles with the quicker point guards, but, both Lowry and Dragic had the same problem. He's improved his shooting throughout the season, and has the work ethic to become a special player. His future is in his own hands. He makes some boneheaded mistakes at crucial times, but has shown the mind to correct these(his continuous 3-point shots with a foot on the line). We are a young team, and still learning to play together. Throwing in the fact that we traded 3 rotation players, and I think he is doing just fine. Next year will really show the trajectory of his career. I think most projections now are just too soon.

 

The analysis is fine. Your Lin love is very evident and clouding the player he is today. I would love for him to become that player, but it's a long way to the top when you want to rock and roll.....

 

Happy to answer questions and thanks for the rep!

If you look at the 12 PGs on that list, some are better scorers (Parker, Westbrook). Some are better assist men (CP3, Vasquez). Some are better shooters (Parker, Jack). Some are better rebounders (Westbrook, Vasquez). But in terms of points/assists which is what most PGs are measured against, Lin is up there and above average. Feel free to come up with your own criteria at the b-ref site (http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/psl_finder.cgi). Outside of CP3 (an absolutely perfect PG), everyone has their strengths and weaknesses.

PER36 doesn't need an adjustment for pace, the same way you wouldn't adjust Harden's scoring avg due to pace. Really, you would only adjust pace for team stats (for comparing offensive styles of play) and even then it's not necessary because pace is function of what players do between the lines and not like ball-park factors in baseball which is an external variable.

PER36 is per game stats normalized for minute variations. Players rarely play the same amount of mins and the same amount of games due to injuries, blow-outs, coach sub patterns, etc. Lin averages 32.5 mins per game while most starting PGs average 36-38 (~12% more than Lin) making him at the bottom tier in total mins among starting PGs and a partial reason why his counting stats like PTS, AST, REBS, etc. look less spectacular (12.8 pts/g, 6.1 ast/g).

Lin's TS is .530 at the moment. That's ever so slightly above average. Westbrook is .533. The bearded one is 3rd at .607 which is elite. But keep in mind the horrible month of Nov. He was in the mid .450s so you had to have really good months to get to average. Currently he is 42rd among all shooting and point guards that qualify for the minutes leaderboard (tied with Dragic).

Here is Jeremy's TS% by month:
Nov: .455% (14 games)
Dec: .571% (16 games)
Jan: .520% (17 games)
Feb: .543% (11 games)
Mar: .611% (5 games)

Calculated this myself since no site has TS% splits by month. Data from B-ref. Formula is PTS / (2 * FGA + 0.44 * FTA)

USG% is not really a good measure of anything except who shoots the most on a team but just look at FGA PER36 and you get pretty much the same thing. Not sure why it's become somewhat vogue. But, here you go anyways:

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padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap; " onmouseover="" onmouseout="" onclick="">9</td> <td align="left" class=" bold_text" csk="Paul,Chris" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap; " onmouseover="" onmouseout="" onclick=""><a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/p/paulch01.html?utm_source=direct&amp;utm_medium=Share&amp;utm_campaign=ShareTool">Chris Paul</a></td> <td align="right" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap; " onmouseover="" onmouseout="" onclick="">13.1</td> <td align="right" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap; " onmouseover="" onmouseout="" onclick="">4.7</td> <td align="right" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap; " onmouseover="" onmouseout="" onclick="">17.9</td> <td align="right" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap; " onmouseover="" onmouseout="" onclick="">.475</td> <td align="right" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap; " onmouseover="" onmouseout="" onclick="">.339</td> <td align="right" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap; " onmouseover="" onmouseout="" onclick="">.891</td> <td align="right" class=" highlight_text" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap; " onmouseover="" onmouseout="" onclick="">22.1</td> </tr> <tr class="" data-row="9" onmouseover="" onmouseout="" id=""> <td align="right" csk="10" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap; " onmouseover="" onmouseout="" onclick="">10</td> <td align="left" class=" bold_text" csk="Dragic,Goran" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap; " onmouseover="" onmouseout="" onclick=""><a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/d/dragigo01.html?utm_source=direct&amp;utm_medium=Share&amp;utm_campaign=ShareTool">Goran Dragic</a></td> <td align="right" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap; " onmouseover="" onmouseout="" onclick="">12.7</td> <td align="right" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap; " onmouseover="" onmouseout="" onclick="">4.4</td> <td align="right" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap; " onmouseover="" onmouseout="" onclick="">15.5</td> <td align="right" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap; " onmouseover="" onmouseout="" onclick="">.435</td> <td align="right" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap; " onmouseover="" onmouseout="" onclick="">.306</td> <td align="right" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap; " onmouseover="" onmouseout="" onclick="">.734</td> <td align="right" class=" highlight_text" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap; " onmouseover="" onmouseout="" onclick="">21.7</td> </tr> <tr class="" data-row="10" onmouseover="" onmouseout="" id=""> <td align="right" csk="11" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap; " onmouseover="" onmouseout="" onclick="">11</td> <td align="left" class=" bold_text" csk="Jack,Jarrett" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap; " onmouseover="" onmouseout="" onclick=""><a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/j/jackja01.html?utm_source=direct&amp;utm_medium=Share&amp;utm_campaign=ShareTool">Jarrett Jack</a></td> <td align="right" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap; " onmouseover="" onmouseout="" onclick="">13.5</td> <td align="right" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap; " onmouseover="" onmouseout="" onclick="">3.1</td> <td align="right" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap; " onmouseover="" onmouseout="" onclick="">16.2</td> <td align="right" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap; " onmouseover="" onmouseout="" onclick="">.450</td> <td align="right" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap; " onmouseover="" onmouseout="" onclick="">.406</td> <td align="right" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap; " onmouseover="" onmouseout="" onclick="">.847</td> <td align="right" class=" highlight_text" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap; " onmouseover="" onmouseout="" onclick="">21.6</td> </tr> <tr class="" data-row="11" onmouseover="" onmouseout="" id=""> <td align="right" csk="12" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap; " onmouseover="" onmouseout="" onclick="">12</td> <td align="left" class=" bold_text" csk="Lin,Jeremy" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap; " onmouseover="" onmouseout="" onclick=""><a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/l/linje01.html?utm_source=direct&amp;utm_medium=Share&amp;utm_campaign=ShareTool">Jeremy Lin</a></td> <td align="right" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap; " onmouseover="" onmouseout="" onclick="">11.8</td> <td align="right" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap; " onmouseover="" onmouseout="" onclick="">3.6</td> <td align="right" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap; " onmouseover="" onmouseout="" onclick="">14.1</td> <td align="right" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap; " onmouseover="" onmouseout="" onclick="">.436</td> <td align="right" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap; " onmouseover="" onmouseout="" onclick="">.323</td> <td align="right" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap; " onmouseover="" onmouseout="" onclick="">.791</td> <td align="right" class=" highlight_text" style="border: 1px solid #ccc; padding: 2px 3px 2px 2px; white-space: nowrap; " onmouseover="" onmouseout="" onclick="">20.1</td> </tr> </tbody> <tfoot></tfoot></table><div id="" style="font-size: 0.83em;" class="sr_share">Provided by <a href="http://www.sports-reference.com/sharing.shtml?utm_source=direct&amp;utm_medium=Share&amp;utm_campaign=ShareTool">Basketball-Reference.com</a>: <a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/psl_finder.cgi?request=1&amp;match=single&amp;type=per_minute&amp;per_minute_base=36&amp;lg_id=NBA&amp;is_playoffs=N&amp;year_min=2013&amp;year_max=2013&amp;franch_id=&amp;season_start=1&amp;season_end=-1&amp;age_min=0&amp;age_max=99&amp;height_min=0&amp;height_max=99&amp;birth_country_is=Y&amp;birth_country=&amp;is_active=&amp;is_hof=&amp;is_as=&amp;as_comp=gt&amp;as_val=&amp;pos_is_g=Y&amp;qual=mp_per_g_req&amp;c1stat=pts_per_mp&amp;c1comp=gt&amp;c1val=14.1&amp;c2stat=ast_per_mp&amp;c2comp=gt&amp;c2val=6.7&amp;c3stat=&amp;c3comp=gt&amp;c3val=&amp;c4stat=&amp;c4comp=gt&amp;c4val=&amp;c5stat=&amp;c5comp=gt&amp;c6mult=1.0&amp;c6stat=&amp;order_by=usg_pct&amp;utm_source=direct&amp;utm_medium=Share&amp;utm_campaign=ShareTool#stats">View Original Table</a><br>Generated 3/11/2013.</div> </div>
See? Shoot a lot = high USG%. There's other things that make up USG% but they're nominal components compared to FGA.