http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/article.html Sounds good, right?!? Say no to GFS and UKMET and say yes to ECMWF!
The computer models must look like a squished spider right now. Here’s the experts latest. 000 Fxus64 khgx 310911 Afdhgx Area forecast discussion National weather service houston/galveston tx 411 Am cdt wed aug 31 2011 Discussion ... Main concern today will be whether college station reaches at Least 100 degrees for a maximum temp or not for the 58th time This year. This will tie the all time record 58 days in 1917. Kcll reached 104 yesterday ... Will forecast 103 today as Conditions are not expected to be all that different. If Anything ... May be a tad drier today than yesterday. Today will Also be the first day in a long while that se tx will not be Under a heat advisory. Still think given temps and Dewpoints ... Heat index values will run in the low 100s. Max temps Are forecast to decrease through the rest of the forecast ... So do Not see the advisory coming back. All right ... The part of the forecast everyone wants to know About. Is it going to rain this weekend or not? If you live Closer to the coast ... You will have better chances of seeing at Least a few drops. Confidence in this forecast is very low to say The least. First ... Tropical wave in the nw caribbean is not all that Organized and looks to possibly move over the yucatan peninsula. Hard to know what will remain of the wave once it emerges into The gulf sometime tomorrow. The wave is not all that well defined But upper level winds may be a little more favorable for Development except for some westerly shear across the northern Gulf where there is a weak upper level low. Said all of this to Say that the system may be slow to develop and largely depend on Where it can develop a core of convection. Second ... Since the system is ill-defined ... None of the models Really have a good grip on how to initialize it or how to handle Its evolution once something does form. The nam has been the most Consistent with developing at least a tropical cyclone of some Shape and deepening it off the la coast fri. Think it weakens the Ridge too much which will stretch from the s rockies to the miss River valley. The GFS and ECMWF solutions minds as well be polar Opposites with their solutions. GFS has a broad weak low along The la coast and moves it east with time and then up the east Coast early next week. The ECMWF has a weak low fri/sat and then Deepens it off the lower tx coast sun. The system remains in the W gulf through mid of next week before turning n into se tx. Neither of these solutions look very reasonable at this point. The sref and GFS ensemble mean probably offer at least some Guidance. The sref like the nam develops a low off the la coast By fri but is much weaker. Same can be said for the GFS Ensemble. Sref does look to move the system back to the west Some like the nam as well. The main trick will be to see if a Strong shortwave trough over the northern tier of states will be Able to pick up the system sun/mon with the upper ridge over the S rockies and weakening over the miss river valley. This may open Up enough for the system to pull inland sun/mon. Add too that That the extended models bring a front into the region mon ... This Too may give reason for the system to push inland in the sun/mon Time frame. So until the models come in to more agreement on the Details ... Best course seems to be to go with parts of model Solutions that make the most physical sense which really is not Much. Aligned pops for the rest of the week and weekend keeping In mind lots of uncertainty but that there will be some tropical Development in the n gulf fri. System lingers in the n/nw gulf Through sun when strong shortwave across the north begins to pull It inland sun/mon. Frontal boundary then pushes into the region Mon/tue which clears everything out and may actually bring temps Down to climo norms which will be about 10-15 degrees cooler than Temps from this past week. Again ... Will really have to watch this System because quite possible for there to be rainbands to affect The area which could bring very heavy rainfall. Strong east winds That develop would also build up seas and coastal flooding Threat. While se tx could use the rainfall ... Still lots of other Impacts that will depend on the details in the forecast which Unfortunately are sketchy at best. Given the uncertainty and the Possibility of extreme impacts to the area ... Best to monitor Forecast trends closely.
Google Earth map of Texas current wildfires: http://txforestservice.tamu.edu/main/popup.aspx?id=10588
You have to have Google Earth installed. Here's the wunderground map: http://www.wunderground.com/wunderm...=0&tor=0&ndfd=0&pix=0&dir=0&ads=0&tfk=0&ski=0
that's crazy. smoke alert is interesting, and it looks on that map like Louisiana has is as bad or worse than Texas? __________________ Team ECMWF
Tropical Disturbance 35 Updated: Wednesday, August 31st 2011 2:31pm CDT Current Location: 24N/87.8W Geographic Reference: Northwest Caribbean and Yucatan Movement: Northwest at 8-10 mph Max Winds: 35 mph Organizational Trend: Slowly becoming better organized Chance of Development to a Tropical Storm within 48 hours: 40% Chance of Development to a Tropical Storm beyond 48 hours: 75% Forecast Track Confidence: Average first 72 hours, low beyond then due to poor model agreement. Changes From Our Previous Forecast We have increased the development chances from 15% to 40% during the first 48 hours due to the fact that the expected time of tropical storm development (Friday afternoon to Saturday) is now nearly within the next 48 hours. Our Forecast It is looking more likely that the disturbance will move into the northwest Gulf by Friday and stall off the southwest to central Louisiana coast by Saturday. High pressure to its north over the weekend may result in very little movement through early next week. By next Tuesday, the high pressure to its north should have moved to the east, allowing the system to begin tracking to the west to southwest toward Texas. We think that such a track is now the more likely scenario, though it remains uncertain if a weakness in the high pressure to the north on Sunday might allow for a turn to the northeast and an acceleration toward southeast Louisiana, as the American model continues to forecast. For now, we are discounting the northeasterly track scenario. Confidence in the long-term track remains low. Given the high oceanic heat content across the Gulf and only light to moderate shear, we think that the disturbance will most likely become a tropical depression by Friday afternoon and a tropical storm on Saturday. If it does remain stalled offshore on Sunday and Monday, then it will probably become a hurricane over the northwest Gulf and continue to slowly intensify up until its eventual landfall in Texas around the middle of next week. Expected Impacts on Land Texas/Louisiana Coasts: The disturbance may spread heavy rain into the area by Saturday. Due to the very slow motion expected near the coast, the squalls may last for several days. Expected Impacts Offshore Northwest Gulf of Mexico: Thunderstorms may begin increasing off the Texas and Louisiana coasts as early as Thursday late afternoon, which means that Thursday may be the last day of good helicopter flying weather. But with that decaying frontal boundary currently across the central Gulf, there may be scattered thunderstorms off the Texas and Louisiana coasts over the next several days in advance of the disturbance and possible development. The next update will be issued by 11PM CDT.
allison was the event it was because it hit us 2x. it made landfall here...stalled out over north texas...turned right back around and sat over us again.
Allison came through with the grounds already soaked, bayous somewhat elevated, and vulnerable to flooding.
No rain it's time for a rain dance<iframe width="480" height="390" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/R44ZrDBCyoE" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>
