For future reference, the end of preseason is the time that most fans start getting excited about the upcoming season, not writing it off before it even starts. I'm looking forward to seeing the improvement of our 2nd year players, the new members of the team & how they gel together. TJ, Morency, Mathis, C.C.Brown, P-Buc, Greenwood, an improved Ragone, Peek as a starter, Babin in his 2nd year, Dunta in his 2nd year, a veteran starting at LT in Riley, an OL that only has 1 new addition, new blocking schemes to enhance the offensive weapons we have, more blitze packages due to a faster defensive unit, the Texan's cheerleaders, the chance to sweep Bud's boys, another chance to make the playoffs, & finally, another chance to finally beat the crap out of Indianapolis. These are just some of the things that I'm getting excited about. So, as you can see, writing off the season before it even starts, would leave me very disappointed. This is not to say that I don't have some concerns, but the new elements far out weigh any (as of yet) unfounded concerns I might have. Let them play the games before you bury them. A true fan would.
If you really want to hit the reset button, then Casserly and Capers should be the ones getting the boot, not Carr. Carr is at least a middle of the road qb at this point, and a good team can win even with a mediocre/average qb. It's just a question of whether or not a. Casserly can get talent at the positions necessary for the Texans to be successful b. Capers is good enough of a coach to use that talent effectively If you are confident that they can, then stay the course. If not, then get rid of em and find someone who can get the job done.
Easy, all I was saying is just because someone doesn't look at the team through the same glasses as "most fans" isn't a reason to degrade them by saying their either not a real fan or a bad one. The "it's only preseason" or "preseason doesn't matter" mantras don't fly. Preason does matter when you see your team not being able to execute even the simple plays, your QB throwing the ball to the ground in frustration when they can't even execute a vanilla timing route, and your head coach calling the preformance "embarrassing". We can't fully blame the troubles on the O-Line anymore, because they only gave up only one or two sacks the hole preseason, but , since we basically had to change our offensive strategy (from a 5-step drop to a 3-step drop) because of our poor pass protection, Carr and his recievers look like they have never played a down together as a result. Now im not comending those who are overly critical, but logic only tells you that, based on these simple facts, that you should be a little worried.
As a season ticket holder, I have already spent thousands of bucks attending the games. I don't have a problem with the team gradually getting better. I would be pissed if they started over. If they did, I hope the first to go would be the coaches for failing. Don't put it all on Carr.
How do you measure pocket presence, then? I've watched every game in this franchise's history, and I'm comfortable with his pocket presence. I think he has a very solid feel for the rush and tends to have good timing on when to escape the pocket and use his speed to go on the move. As far as the article: Carr's metrics make it clear he has All-Pro potential. If Carr's offensive line can stay healthy this year and protect him, and if they can simply find one other decent receiver to offset some of the pressure on Andre Johnson, his standard statistical measurements should start to catch up with his performance metrics. Note the phrase "this year." It doesn't say it directly, but imo, it's pretty clear that he's inferring that this will be the year his standard statistics will start approaching his metrics. In other words, he'll continue to improve, and it's not like it takes much improvement for him to "shine"... he was already in the top-half of quarterbacks in the league a year ago.
Right now it goes straight on Casserly. The talent isn't there to be better than 9-7(10-6 if they get lucky). They don't have a pass rush, a sound running game, and an OL worth anything as of right now. Thus, they will be mediocre. Not to mention only one real weapon at WR. Also, Casserly better hope Travis Johnson performs because I have a strong feeling that he will regret passing on Derrick Johnson when he inexplicably fell into the Texans lap on draft day. Those knocks on Johnson like his tackling form, and the fact he didn't have to take on blockers at Texas are so trivial it's not even funny. The guy was a playmaker from day one in college, and he is one reason I think the chiefs have a strong chance to represent the AFC in the super bowl this year. I will admit I'm biased on DJ because I am at UT alum, but the guy just made plays. His numbers and talent speak for themselves. Also, I think this idea that he couldn't play in a 3-4 is ridiculous. He would have been one heck of a blitzing OLB in the 3-4 imho.
Well, I guess DJ's playmaking days must be ahead of him, because he only made 2 tackles in 4 games as the starting OLB. While I didn't watch any KC games, I find it difficult to believe that they were pulling him out of games after 1 or 2 series. Especially, since he's a rookie & needs every rep he can get.
Get that logic out of here. Haven't you heard? Indy went 0-5 in the preseason so they are shopping Peyton Manning. But if they went 0-5 he must be a bum.
I'm not saying that Casserly is free and clear, but I thought overall he has made some good choices. The OL has always been an issue.
Casserly has been conservative for the most part, in my opinion. He has taken a few gambles in the draft like Babin and Henson, but for the most part he's played it safe(and traded down a few too many times in my opinion). And for the most part he's been hesitant to really delve into FA(besides Greenwood and Smith, they have signed mostly filler players). But honestly, no o line plus no real pass rush=mediocrity in the NFL. And it's not like Carr has the natural athletic ability to overcome those things all on his own. If you are not good up front on both sides of the ball, you can't go to the next level in the NFL, and that is Houston's dilemma now. That is why I see the team in the 7-9 to 9-7 range. However, anything can happen in the NFL so who knows. I do think the secondary will be strong, but it doesn't matter how strong it is if they(the defense) can't rush the QB.
i don't think he's been conservative at all. in fact, it's his knack for gambling that's most hindered the team's growth, imo. his real failings have come in the 2nd and 3rd rounds, where, by and large, his picks have been universal busts, primarily because he's drafting on projected talent and the team's ability to develop it (which this coaching staff may or may not be able to do - developing talent has been slow, thus far). he's drafted 7 starters in four years and three of those (carr, johnson and robinson) were top 10 picks - much harder to blow those. meanwhile, among his 2's and 3's, gaffney, pitts, peek and wand have been marginal starters; no game breakers among them. joppru (over whitten) has been a major bust; raggone may be good, but he's a back-up. you could count babin among this group, too, since they gave up 2's and 3's to get him, and he is developing slowly (not saying he's a bust, but usually, the bound-for-great ones show at least flashes. i've yet to see many flashes from babin). he's also blown two supplemental picks with brown and hollings (costing two more picks from the annual draft). right now, he's living on finding davis in round 4, but otherwise, he's delivered exactly two certifiable playmakers (AJ and dunta) in his 4 years, along with carr and davis (who i think they'd replace in a heartbeat if they had anybody better). personally, i don't see that the team is "loaded" talent-wise. i think their talent is still below-average by league standards. maybe it congeals this year into a unit; we'll see. but i think casserly's record thus far is spotty at best.
yeah...you can substitute David Carr for Matt Leinart in every one of those sentences, if you're talking about him as a Fresno Bulldog. His pocket presence was one of the assets talked about so much on draft day.
That's a good point Ric. A point that is severely overlooked. Seven starters in four years is not a good rate when, for one as you said, 3 were top 10 picks, and two, this was an expansion team with an expansion roster. Casserly, in the grand scheme of things, has done a below average job and should start feeling some heat.
it may actually be 9: carr, davis, johnson, gaffney, pitts, peek, babin, robinson and then either brown or earl will start at safety, both CC picks. i'm trying to do this off the top of my head. i think that's right. still, 9 with the additional picks is rather abysmal, imo.
That is true. I guess a better way to describe him is like a split personality. Casserly has been conservative in the free agent market(I can't really think of a big signing outside of greenwood/smith), but a real vegas gambler in the draft process. I don't understand wasting so many picks on backup QB's and he seems to have a fetish with trading down. Did I hear right that Travis Johnson isn't even projected to start this year? Unless it's a QB or you are a playoff team you need your 1st round pick to be somebody who can contribute right away. And the texans definitely don't have the luxury to wait around on him talent wise.
Agreed. And his almost near butchery of the middle rounds should not go unnoticed because of a D. Davis. Every year since the team's inception (and it never fails), I've been left bewildered on draft day with some of the most bizzarre and downright boneheaded selections by Casserly.
An interesting David Carr read from ESPN.com. ------------------------------------ Numbers show Carr ready to succeed I just finished reading PFW writer Jeff Reynolds' piece on the QB class of 2002 (David Carr, Joey Harrington and Patrick Ramsey) and thought it would be interesting to take a look at their 2004 performance metrics and see what story they told. When I break down game tape, I am looking to answer specific questions that the standard play-by-play sheet doesn't measure. For QBs, some of the basic questions I am looking to answer include: • How often does a QB throw a short, medium, or deep pass? What is his completion percentage at each of these levels? (For more on the passing tree, click here) • How often does a QB throw to an open receiver, and how often does he force the ball into coverage? • How often does a QB make a bad decision? Does he force passes into coverage? Does he try to throw the ball while being sacked? Does he stare at receivers? • How accurate are a QB's passes? We can easily track a QB's completion percentage, but I also want to know how often he throws a pass the receiver can catch. I track each of these items and more using a scouting system I devised over the years. The system is largely based on tracking what I call performance metrics. Performance metrics are simply the tools I use to quantify how well a player played. These metrics can be measured separate from the standard statistical line and allow you to see how a player actually performed. I'll highlight some of these metrics in each of the QB reviews. • David Carr If you look at the standard statistical sheet from the 2004 season for Carr, you wouldn't come away that impressed. Carr did throw for more than 3,500 yards and had a completion percentage over 60 percent, but he only threw 16 TDs and had 14 interceptions. His passer rating was 83.5, which placed him 16th in the league. When you look at some of Carr's performance metrics measurements, however, you come away with a much different picture. For example, let's take the bad-decision metric. When a QB makes a bad decision on a play, I measure that under the bad-decision metric. If a QB throws a pass into coverage, throws the ball while being sacked, stares at a receiver or any other mistake along those lines, I mark that as a bad decision. I also put a weight on each of these bad decisions, ranging from a one-point bad decision to a five-point bad decision. A one-point bad decision might be when a QB stares at a receiver but throws an incomplete pass. A five-point bad decision might be where a QB is being sacked at the end of a game his team has basically won, but instead of taking the sack, he ends up throwing the pass and having it intercepted, thus causing his team to lose. Bad decisions are probably the most important metric for a QB, as any QB who consistently makes bad decisions will be benched. Of the 451 passing plays I charted for Carr last season -- I missed some when hurricanes knocked my satellite out -- he made only 10 bad decisions. Of those, nine were of the one-point variety. To put that in perspective, only 2.2 percent of the Carr pass plays I charted resulted in a bad decision -- good for fifth in the league in that category. It gets even better for him when you look at what I call weighted bad decisions. Weighted bad decisions are the numbers you get when you add the point values of the bad decisions and express them as a percentage. For example, Carr made nine one-point bad decisions and one three-point bad decision. If you add those point values up, you get 12 weighted bad decision points. If you express those 12 points as a percentage, you get 2.7 percent. That percentage ranked Carr third in the NFL, behind only Byron Leftwich and Peyton Manning in that category. Carr's metrics make it clear he has All-Pro potential. If Carr's offensive line can stay healthy this year and protect him, and if they can simply find one other decent receiver to offset some of the pressure on Andre Johnson, his standard statistical measurements should start to catch up with his performance metrics. • Joey Harrington Harrington's standard stat line is somewhat similar to Carr's. He threw 19 TDs to Carr's 16, had 12 interceptions to Carr's 14, and ranked 22nd in passer rating to Carr's 16th. When you look at the performance metrics for Harrington, though, you start to see why the Texans still have faith in Carr and why the Lions signed Jeff Garcia this offseason. As I mentioned earlier in this article, I measure not only a QB's completion percentage but also how often his passes are accurate. What I mean by an accurate pass is a pass that a receiver should be expected to catch. If the pass is somewhere in the chest area of the receiver, or within the reach of his hands, I credit the QB with an accurate pass. It is an area that is fairly easy to score high in, especially for quarterbacks who throw a lot of short passes. You would expect Harrington to score high in this, especially since 341 of the 503 passes I charted of Harrington's last year were short ones. To put that in perspective, that is 67.8 percent of his total passes, or the sixth-highest short pass percentage in the league. Despite this abundance of short passes, Harrington's overall accurate pass percentage was only 39.4 percent, which ranked him 24th in the league and was the primary reason his overall completion percentage was so low. The bad news for Harrington is that he wasn't just inaccurate at short passes. He was inaccurate at every pass depth level. He ranked 32nd in accurate pass percentage on deep passes and 26th on medium passes. I know that Detroit fans are going to point out that Harrington had a terrible group of receivers and tight ends in 2004, with Az-Zahir Hakim and Tai Streets both getting a lot of playing time due to injuries. My counter to that is that Carr's receivers were just as pitiful as Harrington's, with Jabar Gaffney, Corey Bradford and Derick Armstrong all getting more action last year than they would have if sheer talent equated to playing time. And don't even get me started on Harrington's bad decision percentages, especially at the deep-pass level. I have my thoughts on why Harrington's accuracy is so bad, and I think it has to do with his toughness in the pocket. I was rather harsh on him in Scientific Football 2005 -- the article is titled "You don't have to be John Wayne, but you can't be Pee Wee Herman either" -- but maybe Garcia nipping at his heels will give him the motivation to stand in against the rush. • Patrick Ramsey Ramsey's 2004 performance was something of a mix of what Carr and Harrington did. He had some high points -- his overall accurate pass percentage ranked him second in the league. The problem for Ramsey is that his metric measurements were overwhelmingly positive on short passes but not up to par at the other depth levels. Ramsey's metrics on short passes were so good that in some cases they more than offset the measurements at the other depth levels. For example, his deep metrics were among the worst in the league. Ramsey only threw 30 deep passes in 2004, a total which ranked 30th. Now before you point out that he didn't play much of the season, I'll point out that deep passes accounted for 12.9 percent of Ramsey's total passes, and that percentage ranked 27th in the league. But that wasn't the only deep issue for Ramsey. He ranked 31st in deep completion percentage and 14th in deep pass accuracy percentage. Remember how Carr had only 10 bad decisions and 12 weighted bad decision points all year long? Ramsey had five bad decisions at the deep level alone, and they accounted for 15 weighted bad-decision points. This would be a big issue with any offense, but it is especially problematic in a Joe Gibbs offense. The Gibbs philosophy over the years has been to have a power running game teamed up with a deep passing game. Gibbs didn't always run his offense that way, but he did whenever he had a running back he could punch you in the mouth with, and he has that with Clinton Portis. I usually don't put a lot of stock in preseason performance, but I recently broke down the Cincinnati-Washington preseason game and found something very interesting. Ramsey started the game and played the first half. In that time, he threw 10 deep passes. Just to put that in perspective, the QB who attempted the most deep passes last year was Jake Delhomme. Delhomme threw 121 deep passes in 16 games, or an average of 7½ deep passes per game. Gibbs had Ramsey throw more deep passes in one half than most teams throw in a game, and I think he did it to test Ramsey at that depth level. How did he do? Ramsey's stat line on deep passes: 4-for-10, 134 yards, 1 TD, 2 INTs. A 40 percent completion rate on deep passes will rank you in the top 10 in the league, and the 134 yards and a TD were obviously good. The two interceptions were the problem, and one of them came on a three-point bad decision. That equates to a bad-decision percentage of 10 percent and a weighted bad-decision percentage of 30 percent. If those numbers continue into the regular season, they are bad enough to get Ramsey benched. KC Joyner, aka The Football Scientist, has a Web site at http://thefootballscientist.com. He is a regular contributor to ESPN Insider.
