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The Supreme Court and the 2016 Presidential Election

Discussion in 'BBS Hangout: Debate & Discussion' started by Nook, Mar 17, 2016.

  1. Nook

    Nook Member

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    There is a lot of discussion concerning the fall of the Republican Party and the rise of Donald Trump and his anti-establishment credentials.

    I do not personally see the Republican Party suffering long term damage in the ways people are discussing. I believe that they will still have a lot of success at the local level and will have success in Presidential general elections.

    Where the Republicans may see long term damage is the judiciary. As everyone knows, S.C. Justices are appointed for life and often serve until senility or death. Everyone knows the debate over the replacement for Scalia. However, 4 more years of a Democrat President will likely change the composition of the Supreme Court for twenty years in the future.

    Prior to the passing of Scalia, there were 5 Justices appointed by Republicans and 4 appointed by Democrats. Of the 5 appointed by Republicans, 3 were ideologues that were going to vote predictably (Scalia/Alito/Thomas) and two that in general leaned right but were not guarantees (Kennedy/Roberts). As a result you had a fairly balanced, slightly leaning right Supreme Court.

    Well that is likely to change. The 5-4 Republican advantage is gone (assuming Clinton wins the election). You will have a 5-4 Democrat advantage.

    Further, look at the age of the Court when newly elected President is sworn in:

    Roberts (R) 61 years old
    Kennedy (R) 79 years old
    Thomas (R) 68 years old
    Alito (R) 66 years old

    Ginsburg (D) 83 years old
    Breyer (D) 78 years old
    Kagan (D) 56 years old
    Soto Mayer (D) 62 years old

    You will have the new appointment for the death of Scalia and there are two Democrat Justices that will be 78-83 years old and a Republican appointment that is 79 years old.

    Not to be crass but it is likely that 1 or two of the Justices will pass away in the next four years. That does not include a Justice or two that chooses to step down. Breyer and Ginsburg are both Democrats and may choose to step down and allow a Democrat to nominate her successor. Ginsburg especially is likely to follow this train of thought as she is less of a moderate than Breyer. Kennedy is a Republican, but he is not an ideologue and is not likely to "hold out" for a Republican President.

    If Clinton is elected, you are quite possibly looking at a long term Democrat majority in the court. Simply replacing Scalia gives the Democrats a 5-4 majority. However, replacing Ginsburg with a Justice in their 50's or 60's potentially sets the Democrat majority for many years.

    The Republicans worst "likely possibility" is Kennedy passing away or stepping down, coupled with Ginsburg or Breyer passing away or stepping down. That would give the Democrat a commanding 6-3 majority in the court. There would be two Republican ideologues (Thomas/Alito), and a moderate (Roberts) Republican.

    A 6-3 majority, may be strong enough to make major changes to many controversial subjects that other fall 5-4.
     
  2. Bobbythegreat

    Bobbythegreat Member
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    Yeah that's pretty much a nightmare scenario for the constitution and for civil liberties.
     
  3. A_3PO

    A_3PO Member

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    If the winner in November serves two terms, they will shape the court and leave an indelible stamp on America's future.
     
  4. ryan_98

    ryan_98 Contributing Member
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    where does garland fit in to this or is it assumed that he will not be confirmed?
     
  5. Cohete Rojo

    Cohete Rojo Contributing Member

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    Ummm, the Republicans have control of the Senate. They (along with the HoR) attempted two shutdowns of the government in opposition to Obama's spending bills. Don't think they would have a problem doing the same with a Democratic nominated judge.
     
  6. Nook

    Nook Member

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    Are the Republicans going to do it for years?

    Honestly at that point the Republican establishment should take their lumps and try to rebuild their message from the ground up.
     
  7. Nook

    Nook Member

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    Garland doesn't really change it, if he isn't approved, eventually another (probably more liberal) Justice will be assuming Clinton wins the nomination.

    Garland is a Democrat. He is more of a moderate on certain issues, but on the big issues he is very probable to vote with the Democrat majority of the Supreme Court.
     
  8. Bandwagoner

    Bandwagoner Contributing Member

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    Outside of slavery/racial/segregation issues, when has the court completely reversed course on a previous ruling? A conservative court had no problem with gay marriage and individual mandate. Unless Heller and Roe v. Wade are in trouble, why should I care?
     
  9. geeimsobored

    geeimsobored Contributing Member

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    Reversing the ban on the death penalty comes to mind initially.
     
  10. Bobbythegreat

    Bobbythegreat Member
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    You shouldn't be concerned about the prospect of a conservative dominated SCOTUS, but you really should be concerned about the prospect of a liberal dominated SCOTUS.....that's when rights start to die.
     
  11. JayGoogle

    JayGoogle Member

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    Eh...

    What makes this country great is how it balances between left and right. We really have to get over this idea that the other side is pure evil and needs to be abolished and dominated. When the country goes too far left OR right, then we will have issues. If it teeters between the two then it will continue to thrive as both have good ideas.

    The country or rather it's politicians have been on the right for a while now. For people that htink Obama is some radical liberal I wonder what they would have thought of FDR.

    Hell Teddy Roosevelt was of the Republican party and you look at his policies were far more to the left than anything Obama has done.

    Will be just fine with 5-4 liberals as it were 5-4 conservatives. If it were 7-2 either way then perhaps we'd have a problem.
     
  12. subtomic

    subtomic Contributing Member
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    Heller was a complete reversal - the court had never previously ruled that there was an individual right to bear arms.
     
  13. Bandwagoner

    Bandwagoner Contributing Member

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    My previous question was more this. Is it even possible to overturn huge ruling like Roe v. Wade and Heller to kill rights?

    All the confirmation hearings I watched the nominees said previous decisions have to be respected.
     
  14. Bandwagoner

    Bandwagoner Contributing Member

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    That doesn't constitute a reversal does it?
     
  15. Bobbythegreat

    Bobbythegreat Member
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    I'm not saying that one side is pure evil, I'm saying that one side is anti-civil rights because of an ideology that puts the state over individuals.

    FDR was a fool that extended the great depression with bad social policies and repeatedly had his programs shut down due to them violating the constitution. The policies that they managed to turn into a giant tax so as to not be struck down by the SCOTUS are some of our biggest problems in this country today....like Social Security. Future generations will say the same about Obamacare. It was something that was unconstitutional that was turned into a giant tax so that it wouldn't be shut down and it'll be a disaster for future generations.
     
  16. Bobbythegreat

    Bobbythegreat Member
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    There's ways of doing it. Specific cases can't be heard again, but similar cases can be and they could overturn those cases in a roundabout way. You can bet if Garland is confirmed it'll just be a matter of time before they take a case in order to start eroding the ruling on Heller.
     
  17. SamFisher

    SamFisher Contributing Member

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    You're right, it wasn't a reversal, it was the invention of something new, but nothing was really reversed or overruled, at least at the SCt level.

    Citizens United was an absolute and complete reversal of an issued decided 7 years prior in McConnell v. FEC.
     
  18. Bandwagoner

    Bandwagoner Contributing Member

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    Thanks
     
  19. xcrunner51

    xcrunner51 Contributing Member

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    Who's rights? What rights?

    Liberal/progressive actions have resulted in the rights of women to vote, equality under the law for minorities, protection of women's rights to their bodies, etc...

    All pretty good things under in my book.

    I'm a minority who didn't grow up with guns, but I just don't see how that particular hot button rights issue holds a candle to all the good that progressive policies/rulings have done.
     
  20. Bobbythegreat

    Bobbythegreat Member
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    Equal rights isn't a "progressive" idea. Any constitutionalist that knows what they are talking about also supports those things. Liberal/"progressive" ideas generally strip individual rights in efforts to strengthen the federal government.

    You can get bad ideas from both Republicans and Democrats, so sticking to the platform of a party is pointless. If you don't support the 2nd amendment, you don't support any of them. If you don't support equal protection, you don't support any of the constitution. "Conservative" justices are less likely to erode individual liberty in favor of empowering the state and let's not forget that it was a "conservative" SCOTUS that ruled in favor of gay marriage, not a "progressive" one.
     

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