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The Stock Market, will 2024 be like 2020 ?

Discussion in 'BBS Hangout' started by adoo, Dec 8, 2023.

  1. adoo

    adoo Member

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    The bullish stock market was stymied by run-away inflation, caused by supply chain bottleneck, exacerbated by the Russina invasion of UKraine.

    .

    on the heels of more thant 12 consecutive months of declining CPI data---as well as achieving the lowest unemplyment rate ever---there is more orroborating economic data indicating that
    the Fed may have nailed the soft landing.


    as a result, speculations abound that the Fed will be cutting rates in 2024. If so, then stock trading will be like 2020?

    imho, yes.

    let's do more research and compare our shopping list
     
    astros123 and MadMax like this.
  2. ima_drummer2k

    ima_drummer2k Contributing Member

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    I think it's too early to tell, but like I always say, it's easy to grin when your ship comes in and you've got the stock market beat. But the man worthwhile is the man who can smile when his shorts are too tight in the seat!
     
  3. MadMax

    MadMax Contributing Member

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    hahahaha...alright alright...Pookie, do the honors
     
  4. adoo

    adoo Member

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    i get you being cautious. But consider this recent developments since Nov 2022

    2023 appears to be the transition year, in between high inflation coupled w rake hikes and soft landing.

    the recent bullish run started in late 2022, Nov ??, when several Fed officials / Wall Street Pundits commented that inflation has peaked.

    since then actions by the Fed and US conglomerates, as well as the hard economic data, cooroborate this narrative
    • GDP continues to grow, while CPI continues to decline
    • Fed paused, w Powell commenting that wage inflation has been contained
    • consumers spending has surpassed the pre-pandemic level
     
  5. adoo

    adoo Member

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    [​IMG]
    Luxemberg-based Ardagh Metal Packaging (AMBP) is a leading global supplier of sustainable and infinitely recyclable metal beverage cans to brand owners globally.
    https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NYSE/AMBP/earnings/

    • trades at ~~$3.98; Dividend of $0.40 annually
    • a P/E ratio of ~~ 25, augmented w a 10% yield
    • earning expected is to grow by 60.00%, from $0.15 to $0.24 per share, in the coming year
     
    #5 adoo, Dec 8, 2023
    Last edited: Dec 8, 2023
    Xerobull likes this.
  6. MadMax

    MadMax Contributing Member

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    He was just quoting Caddyshack...and my otherwise nonsensical response to him was in light of that. :)
     
    ROCKSS and rocketsjudoka like this.
  7. Ziggy

    Ziggy QUEEN ANON

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    I am STILL down 35% on TMF. And I have been generously adding with HONOR each month. I am still scared hyperinflation will come SOLELY because I am in TMF. BUT - if the rates come down 6 times in 2024 I am fixna WAPPPPP.

    ALSO - soft landings only help the boomers that fixed the game. Just rip the bandaid off so future generations can buy the dips. **** the fed.
     
    Ubiquitin and Invisible Fan like this.
  8. adoo

    adoo Member

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    disagree, as i subsribe to the philosophy that a rising tide llifts all boats, including those with holes.






    btw, if you don't think non-boomers don't fix the game, i have a bridge in Az to sell you
     
  9. Ziggy

    Ziggy QUEEN ANON

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    That's an overly simplistic view when it comes to this and you of ALL people know that. Wealth gap would disagree with you. Good luck selling bridges while I'm YAMN on TMF.
     
    LosPollosHermanos likes this.
  10. Dr of Dunk

    Dr of Dunk Clutch Crew

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    You must've been watching Jenny Harrington today. lol. :D
     
  11. adoo

    adoo Member

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    guilty as charged
     
  12. HTM

    HTM Member

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    Stock market has been dope the last few weeks
     
  13. adoo

    adoo Member

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    Bottom fishing on BABA
    • current trades At $74, was $319 in Oct 2011, Cash on hand / share ~ $34
    • still very profitable, PE ~~10.5, profit margin ~15%
    • Constructed this credit spread
      • collected $8.28 premium in advance
        • buy Jun 2025 70 strike PUT
        • sell jun 2025 85 strike PUT
    i am risking $6.72 to win $8.28

    price target is 90 by june 2025
     
  14. Major

    Major Member

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    Probably depends on if there's a pandemic that shuts down half the world and causes governments to inject trillions of dollars into non-functioning economies and markets. Nothing about 2020's stock market was based on valuations, fundamentals, or really anything else except a giant pile of money that had nowhere else to go.
     
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  15. adoo

    adoo Member

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    on that basis, it'd not be far-fetched to anticipate heavy trading activities on Wall Street.

     
  16. adoo

    adoo Member

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    on last Thur, AAPL closed below the 20 "daily moving Avg" for the 3rd consecutive day, after the patent infringement news broke.

    when it was trading ~~ 192, i sold a 10-pt credit spread,---using Mar expiration---collecting $5.15 premium in advance.

    sell to open 180 strike CALL
    buy to open 190 strike CALL
    i m betting that, by Mar expiration, that AAPL will trade below $180,
    at which both legs will be worthless; and i get to keep the premium
    i m assuming the max risk of $4.85 to win $5.15
     
  17. DOMINATOR

    DOMINATOR Member

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  18. Dr of Dunk

    Dr of Dunk Clutch Crew

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  19. adoo

    adoo Member

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    AAPL closed @ 182, the credit CALL spread that i sold is worth ~~ $1.10. it is trending the way i had expected.

    decided to make another bearish bet on AAPL, a 15-pt spread, using May expiration

    sell to open 170 strike PUT
    buy to open 185 strike PUT. costing me $5.45
    i am paying $5.45 for the opportunity to collect up to $15, should AAPL trades at < 170
     
  20. tochiee22

    tochiee22 Contributing Member

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    Yall still fckn with stocks? Crypto is where the big gains areā€¦ get with the times
     

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