1. Welcome! Please take a few seconds to create your free account to post threads, make some friends, remove a few ads while surfing and much more. ClutchFans has been bringing fans together to talk Houston Sports since 1996. Join us!

The Skyrocketing Value Of Draft Picks

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by haoafu, Mar 19, 2012.

  1. haoafu

    haoafu Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Jun 29, 2006
    Messages:
    2,021
    Likes Received:
    56
    http://basketball.realgm.com/article/219895/The_Skyrocketing_Value_Of_Draft_Picks

    At the NBA trade deadline this season, late first-round picks were at a premium.

    The Houston Rockets dealt Jordan Hill, an athletic 6’10, 245, 24-year-old big man with a 15.4 PER, for a first-round pick from the Los Angeles Lakers, assuming the cost of buying out Derek Fisher’s $3.4 million player option next season in the process.

    The Cleveland Cavaliers dealt Ramon Sessions, a legit NBA starter who is only 25-years-old, for the Lakers’ other first-round pick, assuming the cost of Luke Walton’s $6.1 million salary in 2013

    The most eyebrow-raising move of all was the Golden State Warriors essentially paying $11.4 million dollars for the San Antonio Spurs' first-round pick. Stephen Jackson’s contract expires after 2013 while Richard Jefferson will almost certainly pick up his player option for the 2013-14 season.

    In a league that typically scoffs at the value of these picks, which have usually been available for $3 million in cash, it’s fair to wonder what these teams are thinking. However, two things, both the result of the lockout, are different in 2012: the heightened luxury tax penalties in the new CBA have increased the value of first-rounders’ cost-controlled salaries while the uncertainty surrounding the 2011-12 season helped keep many of college basketball’s top players in school an extra season.

    Kentucky and North Carolina, the two favorites in the NCAA Tournament, have at least five players who would have been first-round picks last year: Harrison Barnes, Tyler Zeller, John Henson, Terrence Jones and Doron Lamb. At least five more collegiate players -- Jared Sullinger (Ohio State), Jeremy Lamb (UConn), Perry Jones III (Baylor), Jeffrey Taylor and Festus Ezeli (Vanderbilt) -- would have been first-round picks in 2011, one of the weakest drafts in recent memory.

    Combine these returning players with an extremely talented freshman class and the 2012 draft should be as strong as 2008 (Derrick Rose, Kevin Love, Russell Westbrook) if not the famed 2003 class. There’s obviously not many more LeBron James types coming down the pipeline, but part of what made 2003 so special was the number of excellent contributors teams found at the end of the first-round: David West (#18), Boris Diaw (#21), Kendrick Perkins (#27), Leandro Barbosa (#28) and Josh Howard (#29).

    History tells us that the odds are against late first-round picks ever becoming effective NBA contributors, but sometimes the most important part of gathering data is knowing when to ignore it. By their actions at the trade deadline, NBA teams seem to think 2012 first-round picks are three times as valuable as in previous years, and if you look at Draft Express’ current mock draft, that seems about right.

    While I expect several of these players to return to school in an effort to be boost their stock for 2013, the level of talent possibly available at picks #20-30 is jaw-dropping. From top to bottom, with the exception of the Toronto Raptors’ Jonas Valanciunas, I’d take the late first-round of 2012 over picks #4-14 in 2011.

    The 6’9, 240 Patric Young (Florida) and 6’11, 220 Arnett Moultrie (Mississippi State), two athletic but offensively limited power forwards, are fairly similar to Tristan Thompson, while Tony Mitchell (North Texas) has a much higher ceiling. Ezeli, an athletic 6’10, 250 big man with a 7’6 wingspan, should be an effective two-way center, one of the rarest commodities in the sport. Dion Waiters (Syracuse) is a lottery talent being hidden on a deep Syracuse team while Tony Wroten Jr. (Washington) is a Tyreke Evans clone.

    There is certainly no comparing Tyshawn Taylor (Kansas), currently projected to go #30, with Cory Joseph, the Spurs choice at No. 29 last year. Taylor is a 6’3, 180 combo guard with the skill and athleticism to play both backcourt positions at the next level who is averaging 17.1 points and 4.7 assists on 49% shooting; Joseph isn’t nearly as athletic and averaged only 10.4 points and 3.3 assists on 42% shooting at Texas last year.

    There’s clearly more certainty in picking up NBA veterans over projecting college players to the next level, but teams like the Lakers are paying a heavy price for it. Ramon Sessions and Jordan Hill will cost the Lakers at least $9.5 million next season; in contrast, the Lakers could have had Moultrie and Taylor for as little as $3 million if they had kept their picks.

    The end of the first-round is one of the easiest ways for teams to gain a lot of surplus value (what a player is contributing to a team verse how much he is being paid) on their roster. If they draft correctly, the hefty investments the Cavaliers, Rockets and Warriors made at the deadline will seem very wise in a few years.




    ---Looks like we paid the lowest price for a possible 2012 late first round pick, and that pick maybe the highest among all 3 picks mentioned in the article.
     
  2. Carl Herrera

    Carl Herrera Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Feb 16, 2007
    Messages:
    45,152
    Likes Received:
    21,554
    Faulty analysis. Price of 1sts have been at this level for several years now.
     
  3. Raiden87

    Raiden87 Member

    Joined:
    Jan 8, 2010
    Messages:
    166
    Likes Received:
    6
    usually cost this much and especially this years draft I dont think no one will sell their pick this year in the draft
     
  4. jopatmc

    jopatmc Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Sep 4, 2002
    Messages:
    15,368
    Likes Received:
    387
    Interesting conclusion but wrong.

    1. GS paid big time to dump SJAX. They didn't want him around. It was part of the price to acquire Bogut. They essentially traded Monta, Kwame, Udoh for Bogut and Jefferson. They would prefer Jefferson going forward to SJAX. No other team in the league wanted to deal with SJAX next season in the final deal of his contract since he's b****ing already about he should have an extension.

    2. Cleveland, frankly, needed salary for next season anyways. Walton's $6 million salary had to go to someone. And they still have gobs of cap room to add a max player. The decision Cleveland made makes one thing clear, they don't feel like there are two players in next season's free agent class worth giving the max to. I think they are right.

    Our case is different. We really could use the most cap flexibility to re-sign guys like Dragic and Lee, bring over guys like Motie and Llull and still ahve enough cap left over to sign DWill outright to a max deal.

    Now, I realize that we ain't going to do all those things. But our mode of operation has been to keep all doors and avenues open.

    If somehow Morey talked Fish out of exercising his option, then something really FISHY is going on because guys Fish's age and skill level have no guarantee anyone is going to pick them up next season and there is absolutely no way anyone is going to offer him as much money as the $3.4 million he is supposed to make.

    That is why I believe there is something more to this Laker trade. We saved them $6.8 million this year and gave them a backup big and relieved them of the obligation to another guaranteed salary. I believe that we have got Mitch on a string to completing the Gasol/Scola/Lowry deal after the season is over. It may get done on draft day. Perhaps we find them a cheap backup big down at the lower end of the draft, maybe Moultrie or Ezeli, and we make the pick, then send the picked player plus Lowry and Scola to them for Gasol??? Morey money saved and they get good value players?? Or perhaps we are able to parlay Martin into a good SF upgrade for them in some sort of 3-way deal if they value Sessions enough (which they should), so that we get back Gasol in a 3-way deal.

    There has to be something more to the Fisher trade than what is known now.
     
  5. BasketballReasons

    BasketballReasons Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Jun 27, 2008
    Messages:
    5,045
    Likes Received:
    237
    I'm a fan who looks at the long-term and I dearly hope the Rockets miss out on the playoffs this season.
     
  6. jopatmc

    jopatmc Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Sep 4, 2002
    Messages:
    15,368
    Likes Received:
    387
    Now, if we miss the playoffs, we may be able to entice the Nets to take that Dallas pick and relieve us of the obligation of owning them a pick.

    But we have to miss the playoffs for that to occur.
     
  7. stylus8088

    stylus8088 Member

    Joined:
    Jun 27, 2008
    Messages:
    1,456
    Likes Received:
    25
    We're not that far off too. PHX and UTA are a half a game behind us for 8th spot. Lowry and Martin still injured. Anything can happen.
     
  8. Nook

    Nook Member

    Joined:
    Jun 27, 2008
    Messages:
    43,106
    Likes Received:
    69,665
    I agree with you that the value of #1's has gone up the last few years, especially with teams stashing guys over seas or sending them to the NBDL. Having said that I believe there is a growing feeling that this is going to be a very deep draft, and teams think they will get valuable players in the 20's.

    I have maintained for a year that this is not a deep draft, that there may be a Gilbert Arenas or Alex English that slips, but overall nothing special beyond pick #4.
     
  9. phantoman

    phantoman Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Oct 11, 2007
    Messages:
    1,544
    Likes Received:
    273
    wow, i am impressed that Morey was able to get this pick for only 900K. the remaining of balance on fishers contract. Fisher had to give up the entire 3.4m he was owed.... it was a good trade after all..
     
  10. Icehouse

    Icehouse Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Jun 23, 2000
    Messages:
    12,542
    Likes Received:
    2,597
    I doubt it. Fisher was gonna cost LA $7M last year and there was no way he would opt out there, just like there was no way he was gonna opt in here. Win-Win.
     
  11. Spacemoth

    Spacemoth Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Jul 30, 2007
    Messages:
    9,616
    Likes Received:
    3,901
    That's a stupid analysis of the draft. Calling Patric Young, Festus Ezeli, Tony Mitchell to a Tristan Thompson completely ignores that Thompson was a freshman when he came out; same deal with Tyreke Evans. Tyshawn Taylor vs Cory Joseph is a junior vs freshman before their respective drafts. This guy clearly doesn't understand how the NBA can reach on potential.

    If one NBA starter comes out of the pack of Young, Ezeli, Mitchell, and Taylor then in my mind that will be beating the odds. Depth in this year's draft is probably between 14-21 rather than 22-30. Guys like Terrence Jones and Perry Jones III that maybe stayed in college a year too long and will fall into the teens when they would have been top 10 last year. Or freshmen like Austin Rivers and Quincy Miller who will declare for the draft but should stay in college because they didn't impress enough their first year. Those guys might fall to the late teens. That's where value is gonna be in this draft, but you could say that in almost any draft. Joseph and Avery Bradley left too early from Texas. Josh Selby in Kansas. Hell, that's how we got Donte Green at 24 way back when.

    Only time will tell if the draft "fallers" in a particular year pan out or not. But they're certainly higher risk, higher reward.
     
  12. OremLK

    OremLK Member

    Joined:
    Jan 31, 2010
    Messages:
    10,301
    Likes Received:
    584
    I think this year is more likely than most because of individual team situations. New Orleans is league owned and they need to cut salary in order to sell. Washington already has the guy they consider their franchise player (Wall) and have already demonstrated a willingness to sell their future (McGee) in exchange for proven veterans. Sacramento also has two top guys (Evans and Cousins) and might consider an infusion of veterans in exchange for their top 7 pick.
     
  13. jayhow92

    jayhow92 Member

    Joined:
    Jan 15, 2011
    Messages:
    7,502
    Likes Received:
    2,567
    your point is true, but your reasoning is not.
     
  14. megastahr

    megastahr Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Jun 15, 2008
    Messages:
    2,958
    Likes Received:
    666
    I really hope we have all 3 picks in this draft...I think morey could do some real damage...in a good way!
     
  15. spankz141

    spankz141 Member

    Joined:
    Mar 27, 2006
    Messages:
    706
    Likes Received:
    97
    IF the Rockets end up with 3 picks (2 if we make the playoffs), you can bet Morey will combine all three picks and some of the assets to move up in the draft or trade them for a young all-star type of player to build around. (hoping for LMA)
     
  16. Trackwell

    Trackwell Member

    Joined:
    Apr 12, 2008
    Messages:
    947
    Likes Received:
    568
    That is what I am hoping!!! I hope we have all three picks and package a few of them and maybe some other players and grab a prospect that is a top 3 pick!!!!!

    I want Drummand or Davis or Lamb
     
  17. J.R.

    J.R. Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Jun 30, 2008
    Messages:
    90,806
    Likes Received:
    106,024
    Rockets value Power Forwards more than normal?

    Rockets value the 14th pick more than normal?

    Rockets value 6'9 Power Forwards more than normal?

    Rockets value 6'9 Power Forwards with the 14th pick more than normal?
     
  18. topfive

    topfive CF OG

    Joined:
    Jun 12, 2002
    Messages:
    17,253
    Likes Received:
    32,527
    Considering that Morey was going to have to pay Hill the remainder of HIS contract for this year anyway, the actual cost of obtaining the pick was the DIFFERENCE between those two contracts. Bimathug put that figure at $153K.
     
    #18 topfive, Mar 20, 2012
    Last edited: Mar 20, 2012
  19. LabMouse

    LabMouse Member

    Joined:
    Jun 27, 2008
    Messages:
    3,657
    Likes Received:
    250
    It sounds like that this year pick is really good, the rockets need tank to have all three first round picks to have a chance to get more good young players like Lowry, or Parsons (or better), or the rockets just want to be mediocre forever, and still keep asking the fans to support them. Les need make a better decision for his team or is going to lose more fan support next year.
     
  20. thetatomatis

    thetatomatis Member

    Joined:
    May 25, 2010
    Messages:
    5,699
    Likes Received:
    101
    Seems to me like the value has not changed.
     

Share This Page

  • About ClutchFans

    Since 1996, ClutchFans has been loud and proud covering the Houston Rockets, helping set an industry standard for team fan sites. The forums have been a home for Houston sports fans as well as basketball fanatics around the globe.

  • Support ClutchFans!

    If you find that ClutchFans is a valuable resource for you, please consider becoming a Supporting Member. Supporting Members can upload photos and attachments directly to their posts, customize their user title and more. Gold Supporters see zero ads!


    Upgrade Now