the trend (of the polls in Iowa) is her friend, according to the Des Moines Register/Mediacom survey, Iowa has swung from Trump to Harris ! as of 11/02/24 Harris takes lead over Trump in Iowa , outpacing Trump by 3 points, 47 percent to 44 percent, among Iowa’s likely voters on 5 Sept 2024 according to the survey, Harris had just narrowed Trump's lead to 4 point, down from a 17-point against Biden in Jun
if this happens, then Harris wins Texas, and just about any other state that is less than +5 Trump atm. i don't believe it.
The Des Moines Register on Saturday published the results of its most recent poll, Kamala Harris May Flip Iow, A State Donald Trump Won Twice
This Iowa poll is the gold standard poll for Iowa. The pollster Selzer has made an accurate call for the Iowa Presidential race going all the way back to Obama in 2008. Hillary got a surprise in 2016 by this poll, when her campaign thought that they Iowa in the bag. Now it is Trump's turn ... Minimally, the Selzer poll has moved Iowa (and its 6 EC votes) into being a swing state. Trump currently does not have the money or the GOTV game to throw at Iowa. I suspect that the Trump campaign will be left to just hoping the Selzer poll is wrong (which it may be FAIK). More broadly, this poll might represent some Midwestern sentiment against Trump, that might show up in neighboring states like Wisconsin, Nebraska, Kansas and Minnesota ... especially in deep red rural parts. We will see.
Decision Desk has Trump with a 53% chance of winning, down one point from a week ago: "Trump Remains Slightly Favored as Race Enters Final Week As the presidential race enters its final stretch, Donald Trump remains a slight favorite to win the 2024 election, though the outcome is effectively a toss-up. Neither candidate is clearly favored in enough states to secure the 270 electoral votes needed, with Trump currently at 235 and Harris at 226. The former Republican President holds a narrow lead in five of six "toss-up" states—Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin—while Harris has a slight edge in Michigan. Polling averages in all six of these states have trended consistently toward Trump over recent weeks, although they remain close enough to fall within typical polling error" https://elections2024.thehill.com/forecast/2024/president/
Quick question. Who on here gets Tuesday as a floating holiday? I do as most here in NY. Just kind of wondering about Texas.
I highly doubt Harris wins IA. The politics of Ia have shifted quite rightward. From just my own experience in the state I would say it’s not impossible just unlikely. If Harris does win IA this would put the election in landslide territory. Again not impossible but I think unlikely. My prediction still remains a close election based on turnout with Harris holding the three blue wall states and picking off GA.
the trend of this pro-GOP source---showing Harris rising and Trump dropping---corroborates that of the Iowa poll that's the overall summary by DecisionDesk. but it you look at the analysis, state by state, the overall summary mistakenly had Harris losing in PA and NV in this Nevada poll analysis by Decision Desk, https://elections2024.thehill.com/nevada/, it shows Harris leading Trump 49 to 47; up 1 point from last week in this PA poll analysis by Decision Desk, https://elections2024.thehill.com/pennsylvania/, it shows Harris leading 50 to 48, same margin as last week Decision Desk's overall summary of the swing state is contradicted by its own analysis of poll, state bt state, had its overall summary inculde the correct data---Harris leading in NV and PA---Harris would be winning, this convenient mistake by DecisionDeak underscores its lack of professionalism / credibility, a gaslighting operation
add to it the stunning new poll results in IOWA “Age and gender are the two most dynamic factors that are explaining these numbers,” Poll director,Ms Selzer said. Ms Harris is ahead, with women, by a stupendously large margin, while Trump leads overwhelmingly with men – a situation which is reflected in the nation more broadly. Hence the oodles of discussion in recent months about America’s growing “gender gap”. According to Selzer’s data, independent voters – those who are not registered with either of the parties – had consistently supported Trump throughout the election year, but have now switched to Ms Harris. Again, it comes down to women: her margin among female independents, in this poll, stands at 28 per cent. In the other key demographic Ms Selzer mentioned, those aged 65 or over, the gender gap is equally evident. Ms Harris leads with men, in this group, by a mere 2 per cent, but by 35 per cent among women.
The machine got to Selzer. She is wrong this time. Yule C. We’re approaching homestretch, misinfo war is in full swing. Hold on steadfastly. Trump got this. He will clean sweep all the swing states. I was hesitant about MN, but now I think he will take MN too. The Dems really screwed up when they installed this cackling hyena for a candidate. She is that bad!
Four years ago there were more old, rural, racists I.e. his base around. Many have died and they are not being replaced by younger voters who are more educated, less religious, and more accepting of abortion, DEI and LGBTQ. MAGA is a dying culture and good riddance.
no better eg that the DecisionDesk summary---gaslighting--- posted by Basso in its so-called summary, Decision Desk has Trump with a 53% chance of winning, down one point from a week ago, factoring in these data points in its poll analysis for each individual state, Decision Desk has Harris leading in NV and PA
Have you been living in a bunker lately? Lol You remind me of that scene from “Blast from the Past” when Christopher Walken left his bomb shelter for the first time in 30years to go above ground in LA. Lol
