I think people are overreacting to some bad games here and trying to create a narrative that doesn't really hold. Two days ago, the Astros were down 4-0 in the 1st and came right back to tie it up. The previous game, the Astros were down 3-2 late and came back and tied it up. That doesn't strike me as shellshocked or overwhelmed by the circumstances. Yesterday, the SP just sucked, but the game before that, he pitched 6 innings, 0 ERs. The game before that, he had 12K's. Of the last 5 losses, they've been competitive in 4 of them (3 1-run losses, and a 2-run loss; 3 of the games were tied late. None of that seems like a shellshocked team - just one that's making a few critical mistakes here and there.
I disagree; if given a choice: playoffs or no playoffs - you take playoffs every single time, IMO. Nothing is set in stone. Having said that... isn't one of the potential "benefits" of this collapse - assuming it's contained just within the division (ie we still grab the last wild card spot) is that we'll be matched-up with NY and, if we win, Kansas City, both of whom we've played well this year? Careful what you ask for, and all...
And they certainly didn't look shellshocked four days ago during that 9th inning in Anaheim. These first two games were back-and-forth toss-ups; it looked like the Rangers caught all the breaks. Yesterday was a meltdown that, ultimately, counts the same as a 1-0 loss in 15. And the Astros are doing this with four everyday starters out of the line-up. And I'll tell ya what... even last night, they kept chugging. No moral victories but they kept putting guys on base - they just just couldn't get the key hit. Last night looked a lot like nights 1 and 2, minus the obvious pitching implosion.
Even this isn't necessarily true. If they win tonight, the lead is half a game. Losing two of three in Houston (briefly setting aside the interim games) only increases the Rangers' lead to 1.5. I'm not stupid... they need to win tonight and really need to sweep Texas. BUT... this remains very viable. Even if the Rangers complete the sweep tonight and then sweep the Astros in Houston.... it *still* wouldn't (mathematically) be over... (unless the two teams continue the winning/losing streak between series).
They are 9-28 on the road over the last 3 months... and in the biggest road series of the year thus far, they're playing their absolute worst (the errant throws, the base path snafus, the bullpen meltdowns, and the starting pitching failing the last two nights). Sure, critical mistakes here and there... but 9-28? That's worse than this team has been even during the BAD years. Even with that atrocity, they're still very much in this... but you can't tell me that record is just about a few mistakes.
We're talking the team being shellshocked or not. Unless you're arguing they've been shellshocked the last 3 months, I'm not sure what their overall road record has to do with that. Shellshocked, to me, would be a team that's getting blown out all the time, or one that gets behind and just gives up, or things like that. The team hasn't shown any of those types of tendencies. They remain competitive virtually every day, yesterday being a big exception. That said, for all the talk about their horrible road record, they also have the best home record in the AL as well. Every team is different in how they win - the Astros dominate at home as much as they suck on the road. The Rangers, oddly, are better on the road than at home. Looking at one side of the equation without the other doesn't have a lot of meaning.
From this point forward they don't have to play their insane pace just a normal .500 pace and they will likely win the division. To go from Worst to First that is some kind of turn around in 1 year.
Did you watch the first three games of this series? I mentioned it as it was happening, there was some of the worst baseball being played all year by them. Yes, they were "competitive"... but there were also elements of tightness/insecurity that was coming to a head. And the 9-28 record cannot simply be thrown away as a random event. It gets in their heads. Just like Conger will never throw out a base-runner for the rest of the year... a lot of that is now in his head. Combine increased pressure of first place on the line, and you start getting the clown show that has been the last 3 games (culminating with your "ace" having the worst start he's had in 3 years). But do you have an actual explanation for it? Because if any of it has to do with youth or inexperience, it definitely adds to the probability of them getting tighter as the pressure is ramping up. Also, we're not just talking bad on the road... we're talking abysmal over the vast majority of the season.
it feels like when one of our consistent contributors regains health, another one goes down. It's been tough. Would love to see this team with full health, where 15 games missed is the most by a player. Also, the fix at 1st base would go such a long way. All the ups and downs and we still have a lot to play for. it ain't over even though the fatman pancakes did sing a week ago.
The Rangers displayed some of that, as well, though; they just got lucky that their mistakes didn't sink them. I think it boils down more to the team - which, let's face it, even 100% healthy isn't a *great* team - playing without four of its regulars. But beyond Kuechel's meltdown, nothing about this series has looked egregiously different. Even last night's offense - 10 hits, 7 LOBs - looked exactly how this offense can often look: a hit away from breaking the dam. If Kuechel was his normal self, that would have likely been another frustratingly tense nail-biter. It's very possible but I think you're missing, or perhaps too easily dismissing Major's point, which is that for the road woes to be something tangible (ie tightness), you'd have to explain how they so easily turn that off at home. That's not easy to do. (And it's why the Conger anecdote makes no sense - home/road/, he can't throw out runners - it's been a consistent problem. The Astros are extremely good at home - is your explanation that all that youth can magically shed pressure and tightness because they're playing in MMP?...) They've gone 1-12 in 1-run games during that 37-game stretch. Because it's not over a 13-game stretch, or even a small concentration of games (it dates all the way back to July 3), I think it's more a case of random bad luck than any sign they're tight. They're 27-10 in their last 37 home games; again, I find it hard to believe they can turn pressure/tightness on/off to that extreme. Eh... they were 20-17 prior to this 9-28 stretch.
Do you really perceive this awful stretch of baseball on the road as a "random"/"unlucky" event? I brought up youth/inexperience as a valid possible reason for their lack of road success... and I've seen it get worse as the pressure as mounted. Who knows why they're worse on the road? Maybe they party too hard as a group.... maybe they don't get laid enough on the road (or laid too much)... maybe they're enamored by cities/road trips/stadiums a lot of them have never been to before... maybe they just love MMP "that" much. As smart and analytical as everybody here is, nobody has yet to offer a plausible reason. I've also seen the nature of road losses since the KC series get a little bit more egregious (going along with some increased pressure as the season winds down). Hell, the home wins have also had some increased element of fluke-ness (they aren't flat-out dominating everybody at home... but finding far more ways to win) since the Detroit series. At this point, its gone far beyond a random anomaly. The fact that they are "that" good at home points to it being more than just their overall skill level. You said it yourself... they're not a "great" team... and yet they're playing amazing in one venue and like dog s*** everywhere else (unless they use deflated balls at home...)
Yes. Their pythagorean W-L over that stretch is 17-20. We're talking about 37 non-consecutive games over a three-month period broken up by them winning a lot of games (27-10 at home). I'm having a hard time seeing any connection between a game July 3 (which is when this stretch started; a win, btw) and September 16. And what if they come home and go 9-0 on this next homestand? Where did all that mounting pressure go? They're 1-12 in 1-run games; that's what it comes down to. As Major noted, they're not getting routinely blown out: 30 of the 37 games have been decided by 2 or fewer runs. And that could be lack of experience; it could also be injuries (they've had a lot); the bullpen wearing down (which is much more plausible than the team collectively turning on/off their response to pressure); bad luck; bad timing; bad management...
Agreed, pythagorean tells us they should be playing a lot better on the road than their record is showing. Agreed... this has been going on for a long time... it is thus NOT random. It is who they are, a bad road team. Virtually all the batters home/road splits showcase that (except for Correa... who before this road trip was 50/50... that guy!), and virtually all the pitchers pitch better at home than on the road. Nowhere... and I'd take even money that they could go 0-6 to end the season against two mediocre teams... because they're road games. Care to offer an explanation besides it being "random"? Because that sort of bipolar-ishness is not random. And they're finding a way to win those games at home. I agree... it makes no sense. Somebody should try and make sense of it besides giving me the "its random!" And yet none of that seems to affect them at home, or does it? Take all the reasons out there as to why ALL of MLB is currently better at home than on the road... then add whatever factors you need to "this" team to take them from being a young/exciting/excellent home team... and turning them into a laughing stock (yes, 9-28... no matter how you got there... its a laughing stock), on the road. And despite everything you've just typed, there still is no offer of a plausible reason why this team doesn't win on the road.
You seem dead set on finding A REASON... Can't there be several reasons, which is more plausible since we're talking about such a long stretch, time-wise? Do you really think they were feeling pressure in July? As you said, generally, teams are worse on the road. The Astros started decently (20-17) and then hit a stretch where... they haven't been good in close games. Lots of injuries, the bullpen has worn down, the manager has made some mistakes; they've had some bad luck.....
Those reasons are all nifty and typically reflect a handful of games every year, usually equally both at home and on the road. But 9-28? That's more than just bad luck... its more than injuries (that again haven't seemed to affect them as much at home)... its more than a worn-down bullpen (that seems to be much more necessary for road games thanks to our underperforming starters... why are they worse on the road?). That's basically a worse winning percentage than the 2012-2013 Astros. Anyways, you help pinpoint "that" reason... it likely goes further to convincing me that they'll not only turn it around on the road for this season, but have a decent shot at winning high pressure away games in the playoffs as well (last I checked, still necessary).
We've actually outscored our opponents in road games this year, yet our record is 29-45. By comparison the Rangers have been outscored on the road, yet are 41-34. It's one of the larger statistical anomalies I've ever seen.
