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"The Rookie Wall"

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by verse, Oct 26, 2009.

  1. verse

    verse Contributing Member

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    Rookie Wall: The point of the NBA season where a first year player has exceeded the number of games he would have played in a collegiate season.

    NCAA season: ~40-45 games (+/- for pre-season games)

    NBA season: 82 games

    2009-10 looks to be a season where our rookies will get a chance for some OJT (On the Job Training). There will be ups and downs and learning curves throughout the months. Inevitably, BBSers will throw around the phrase "rookie wall" as an explanation for Pops missing a dunk in the final month of the season (even though he isn't even a rookie) or for Chase doing his best Brick-to-my-Lou imitation in the pre-season (ah, Rafer, how I miss your sweet clanks and horrid floaters) or for JT performing poorly early in the season (hoping desperately for Cuttino, part deux).

    None of those are attributable to the rookie wall. None.

    The most obvious question is "Why does it happen?". Well, it is a variety of factors, starting first and foremost with the body starting to fatigue from the stress of playing and practicing more than it is accustomed to doing. Players that suffer from this malady start to lose the lift on their shot, start making mental errors as a result of physical fatigue, and may need a week or two of reduced playing time to allow the body to recover and adjust.

    A second factor is the NBA Intelligence aka scouting. The NBA may be all entertainment for the average fan, or a gambling outlet for the fan looking for a little "action", but above ALL things, it is a business. A billion dollar business at that; and if you're lucky enough to be part of the billionaire boys club, you'd better stay on top of your job. This is where scouts come into play. By the midpoint of the NBA season, team scouts have a decent "book" on a player. Their tendencies are documented and have been studied and disseminated to the players.

    Not every player hits the wall as hard as others. Kevin Durant had a stronger 2nd half of the season than 1st. Others have done the same. Meanwhile, players like Michael Redd struggled initially to get over the intimidating wall. The difference isn't that difficult to discern. Multi-dimensional players come in as rookies, find what part of their arsenal works on the next level, and tend to (over) rely on it. Once it gets neutralized, they have the capability to switch to other facets and countermoves to continue their success. Others don't (Steve Novak I'm looking at you!).

    So when Chase shoots 39% in the pre-season, its not cuz he's hit the wall or "sucks" or is a "bust". It's more likely that he's just in a shooting slump. JT? He's struggled from the onset, not because his rookie wall was closer, but maybe because he's pressing or looking for what part of his game he can rely on to achieve success. David Andersen? Maybe he just has a paint allergy and doesn't have his legs yet since he'll now have to bang with bigger stronger players.

    Know this, though: it's not the rookie wall. That wall will come, for ALL of our rookies, later in the season. Then, we'll know who can adjust and do so the fastest so they can get back on their rookie track. So don't get too far down on them...it's all a natural part of the NBA mid-season process. Right now, they're just getting their feet wet.
     
    #1 verse, Oct 26, 2009
    Last edited: Oct 26, 2009
    2 people like this.
  2. Bob Sacamano

    Bob Sacamano Member

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    Um John Wall is still in college lol
     
  3. pippendagimp

    pippendagimp Member

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    after 3 nites w/ any chick i usually hit the nookie wall and have to callin a substitution off the bench

    that being said, this rookie wall is predicated by decent to good play by said players......who then get scouted better and subsequently handicapped of their goto pet first option moves.....and basically can't produce against better-prepared defenses, hence rooookie walll
     
  4. cjtaylorpt

    cjtaylorpt Member

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    Boo, dude. Boo.
     
  5. RedRedemption

    RedRedemption Contributing Member

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    Also, don't be so quick to judge a player sucks or is a bust.

    Chase, JT, etc. They are all straight out of college. They have a very high ceiling and will continue to grow in skill and experience. Remember when all of you hated Aaron Brooks during his rookie season? And now he is a starting point guard on an NBA team, and is starting to get some recognition around the league from GMs, players, and analysts.

    However, there are some exceptions (Luther Head). But for the most part, most rookies improve their skills.
     
  6. dragonz

    dragonz Member

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    ye, derek rose hit rookie wall last season, thats why he didnt take Bulls to win the series against Celtics.

    I mean, com'on, we all know about rookie wall, someone is gona get hit someone wont, and it doesnt deserve its own thread like this.
     
  7. verse

    verse Contributing Member

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    When you have posters claiming Chase is hitting his rookie wall NOW, then yes, it is necessary. Don't assume what you (may) know to be true to be common knowledge. Not everyone on this site grew up with Bball and knows what it means.

    Besides, for those of us that have grown up with it and know it well, this should serve as a reminder to keep the big picture in mind...especially with rookies! Just because a guy struggles for a few games or even weeks, doesn't make him a "bust" or "D-league candidate" or whatnot. There are ebbs/flows to the year, yet I guarantee you'll see those comments. Will you be there to serve as GARM mod then, too?
     
  8. Shroopy2

    Shroopy2 Contributing Member

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    He made an opening thesis, added supporting detail. Referenced some real examples, then presented a conclusion. I say just on structure alone that is a far BETTER attempt at posting than a lot of others.
     
  9. rox4lyf

    rox4lyf Member

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    This topic, is however, more deserving of a thread than the countless "Could Yao lead the Rockets to 22 wins in a row" and "Player X has just been released, MOREY GIT R DONE" threads so pervasive on this board.
     
  10. pmac

    pmac Contributing Member

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    I try not to get caught up in the future projections years down the line, sometimes I give in but that's Morey's job. I like to asses what's going on now. I think it's important to watch how someone is struggling. Are they disinterested, is this a strength/athleticism/intelligence issue that can't be solved in a single season, can they ever improve this, etc...
     
  11. Carl Herrera

    Carl Herrera Contributing Member

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    C´mon man, it is actually pretty good. I was thinking ¨The rookie Wall is probabably gonna be rookie of the year in the upcoming season¨
     
  12. RocketMania1991

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    Yea because getting the #1 over-all pick in the 2010 draft will hurt the franchise in the long-run.
     
  13. RedRedemption

    RedRedemption Contributing Member

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    You don't hit the rookie wall in the playoffs.... You hit it mid-season...

    Also... he's a rookie nobody expected him to play as well as he did in the playoffs anyway.
     
  14. verse

    verse Contributing Member

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    Shroopy2 and rox4lyf: Thank you for the support. I guess McG hate threads are preferred...

    On topic: does anyone think Chase has the true skills to overcome the inevitable rookie wall? We all know he can shoot, but so could Bryce Drew, Novak, et al. He has adequate handles, but is it enough to keep defenses honest?


    ...Oh and thanks, cabb.
     
    #14 verse, Oct 26, 2009
    Last edited: Oct 26, 2009
  15. RedRedemption

    RedRedemption Contributing Member

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    Offensively, overall... he is a far greater player than both that you have mentioned.
     
  16. jasonemilio

    jasonemilio Member

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    I will seriously consider slapping the next person who utters Chase and Novak in the same area code again.
     
  17. verse

    verse Contributing Member

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    No doubt he is. Then again so was Timmy Breaux.
     
  18. rox4lyf

    rox4lyf Member

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    Ya, he will. All rookies hit a rookie wall, it's just that some hit it much harder. The good ones hit the wall and then plow through it. Hopefully Chase will be that way. He is definitely a lot more well-rounded offensively than Novak, which means he stands a higher chance of overcoming the rookie wall.

    On a side note, Chase reminds me a lot of Mike Miller. If he turns out to be anything close to Mike Miller, he will be a steal for the Rockets.
     
  19. jevon3012

    jevon3012 Member

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    Jay Williams hit a big rookie wall his first year.
     
  20. jsmee2000

    jsmee2000 Contributing Member

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    If you don't understand what a well though out post is...perhaps you should downgraded to a rookie!
     

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