The Rockets have the 16th pick in tomorrow's draft

He's not getting past Boston at 14

 

From the Athletic


NBA Draft: The Rockets have the No. 16 pick, now what?


By Kelly Iko and Sam Vecenie Nov 17, 2020

Late Monday night, the Houston Rockets officially declared themselves participants in Wednesday’s draft, trading starting forward Robert Covington to the Portland Trailblazers for the 16th pick in the 2020 draft and another first-rounder in the 2021 draft.

For Houston, times are anything but stable with the uncertainty of the futures of their cornerstones in James Harden and Russell Westbrook. As such, the NBA Draft is always a fun occasion, full of surprises, twists, and more importantly, trades.

So what are the Rockets’ options now? What will they do with the 16th pick when they are on the clock?

To break all of this down, I sought the help of our resident draft expert and NBA analyst, Sam Vecenie.

Kelly Iko: Hey Sam! First of all, shout out to all the dope draft coverage you’re doing on the site, it all looks great.

Twenty-four hours ago, I thought that Houston wouldn’t be a major player in this draft. I figured the most activity they would get would be from their end making calls about trading someone like Eric Gordon or possibly P.J. Tucker. Last night, we got our first official action of the offseason. With that being said, what are your initial thoughts on last night’s trade? The Rockets sent Robert Covington, the player who was touted as the final small ball piece, to Portland for Trevor Ariza, the 16th pick in the upcoming draft, and a 2021 first rounder.

Sam Vecenie: Hey Kelly, good to chat! Yeah, I thought this deal made sense for both teams. Portland obviously picks up a piece that they desperately needed: a monster weak-side defender who will slide in perfectly at the 4 within their scheme. The 4 is responsible for a lot of coverage area in a drop coverage pick and roll scheme. They have to be able to tag rollers while the big man plays in the gap, while also not straying too far from the weak-side shooter. He should be able to keep racking up deflections baiting guards into making questionable reads. His presence should help Jusuf Nurkic immensely. Plus, he’s a good shooter on offense who will help space the floor for Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum while not asking for a ton of offensive usage. Great deal for them.

Having said that, I think this made a lot of sense for the Rockets, almost separately from what happens here in the forthcoming days with James Harden and Russell Westbrook. Covington wasn’t quite as strong a fit in their switching scheme as he will be in Portland’s scheme where he’ll get to rove as an off-ball havoc-wreaker more often. Opposing teams often tried to involve Covington in the primary screening action, knowing that Houston’s switching scheme would force him onto an island. And while Covington is one of the elite-level help defenders in the NBA, he’s not one of its better on-ball defenders against guards. That relative lack of on-ball prowess was a problem for the Rockets when he’d get switched onto a guard. That’s not to say that he was bad necessarily, but he wasn’t quite as valuable as the price they paid to acquire him.

So for the team to be able to recoup two first-round picks, including a strong mid-first rounder at No. 16 this year, I think it was an excellent deal even independently from what the future holds. If they decide they want to keep Harden and try to compete, they can use these acquired assets to try to find a better fit for them. If they want to move on from Harden, those picks will go a long way toward building what is a relatively barren future asset chest back up.

Iko: I agree with you 100 percent on Covington. I think he’s more valuable in either playing extremely small where his rim protection and weakside presence can help, more so than a heavy-switch scheme or playing traditionally. But now, Houston is a player in Wednesday’s draft. Given the team’s win-now mode, I’m not sure how much attention Rockets fans have paid to the upcoming draft class outside of the hot names mentioned on a weekly basis. So for those who might not have paid much attention to the draft because of a lack of draft capital, what sort of draft is this?

Vecenie: It’s not the strongest draft at the top. That’s why teams like the Wolves and Warriors are exploring every trade avenue imaginable. Having said that, I actually do like the depth a bit and think there are going to be some quality role players that come out of this thing from the middle of the first round downward. There are also some interesting home run swings for teams to take, one of whom will dovetail nicely within your next question.

Iko: As a contender that happens to have a first-round pick in the mid-to-late area, what is your best strategy for picking? Best available? Or something else.

Vecenie: Yeah, I think this is a great question. To answer it, the Rockets should probably decide on what their plans are for next season ahead of time. They need to have a plan because there are different answers depending on what they try to do. If the Rockets want to roll into next season trying to convince James Harden that he should stick around and try to win now — a reasonable move if they think that cooler heads can prevail in the long run given that they hold all of the contractual leverage in this scenario — it would behoove them to select players that make sense for the scheme they want to run around Harden (likely a heliocentric, pick-and-roll dominant offense and a switch-heavy defense to keep him engaged on that end). If they decide that now is the time to move on from Harden, they should simply take whoever the highest-upside players available are. Developing role-playing, 3-and-D type guys doesn’t really make a ton of sense for a team that could drop off very, very quickly in the West without Harden if they wanted to. If they move Harden and Westbrook, the goal quickly shifts toward finding the team’s next star player to build around. Therefore, the key is to know what the plan is ahead of time.

Iko: What sort of players will be available with the 16th pick? Who do you like, who could fall, and who could be a reach?

Vecenie: Let’s take each of the scenarios outlined above.

If the team decides to keep Harden, which has been its public position at this point — although, the Rockets’ public position hasn’t exactly been worth much recently — there are some interesting players worth looking into. It’s possible that smooth-shooting wings like Saddiq Bey and Aaron Nesmith could get to No. 16. Someone like Tyrese Maxey could be interesting if they move on from Westbrook as a combo guard who is tough defensively and a strong shot creator. That kind of player would fit nicely with Harden. I like Desmond Bane quite a bit and his shooting ability would fit really well. I’m also a big Robert Woodard fan, and his switchability on defense at 6-foot-7 with a 7-foot-2 wingspan would really fit well. It’s easy to imagine him filling in as the switchable small-ball 4 that this current scheme calls for.

If the team decides to move Harden, I’d be swinging for the fences, and there are some really fascinating players to take fliers on. Aleksej Pokusevski is the one who comes to mind immediately. He’s 7-foot tall, but moves like a wing and can shoot off of advanced screen actions. He’s a strong passer for his height. His handle is strong out in transition. Defensively, he makes plays all over the court because of his impressive reactivity. The big problem is that he just really struggles to play through contact right now because he’s under 200 pounds. The team that selects him will have a long way to go on his frame. He’s a boom-or-bust kind of guy, but if he hits he has a chance to be unlike any specific player type in the league.

 

R.J. Hampton also stands out as a guard with terrific athleticism and quickness, who can create his own shot at a high level and finish at the rim. The swing skill there is the jumper. It’s quickly developing in that it has been crafted this offseason by former NBA sharpshooter Mike Miller. He has the potential to be a high-level scorer in the NBA, the kind that can run an offense through stretches.

I will also note that French guard Killian Hayes, who I have at No. 10 on my board, is kind of all over the map for NBA teams. I think he’ll probably be gone by the time No. 16 rolls around, but he’s a very high-level shot creator with athleticism questions and a glaring lack of right hand. But he was very good this year in Germany, is a real live-dribble passer, and has great positional size at 6-foot-5 with potential three-level scoring ability. If he can prove that he can get separation, he’d be a steal outside of the top-five.

Iko: If Hayes somehow was available at 16, I think that would be a steal for Houston. Pokusevski is interesting but I can only think of Isaiah Hartenstein and the promise he had — there is so much more in his bag but Houston confined him in this screen-and-roll box. Maxey and Bey are interesting too because of their shooting/scoring ability, something that could easily be plugged into a win-now situation.

But let’s say Harden and/or Westbrook aren’t particularly moved by these young guys coming into the league. Is there a scenario in play where Houston can package any of those picks along with a player and make additional moves on draft night?

Vecenie: Maybe? I guess my question is “who would they move?” Tucker unlocks a lot of the defensive lineups that they like to play, so I’d be surprised if the team wants to move him while also continuing to try to compete. Does moving him with 16 actually end up being an upgrade? I’m skeptical. Maybe you could make a case for Eric Gordon? Gordon could return something interesting along with No. 16 maybe. I probably wouldn’t do Aaron Gordon for 16 and Eric Gordon if I was Orlando. It would take more than Gordon and 16 for me if I was Indiana for Myles Turner.

Maybe you can use both picks with Trevor Ariza’s deal to get involved in deals like this? Is there a chance that Russell Westbrook and No. 16 can push them up the board a bit? I don’t know. Is the goal to try to acquire another star to play with Harden instead of Westbrook? It kind of feels like rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic to me, especially after they did so well in the Covington deal to build up draft asset capital.

Iko: I think having more clarity on what your star players ultimately want to do helps in this situation. With that in mind, what sort of calls do you expect the Rockets to be making on draft night and what calls do you expect other teams to be making to Houston?

Vecenie: Again, I think the big thing is whether or not they decide they want to make the Harden move now or later. If they think the relationship is irreparable, or if they think that they’re no longer able to compete for a championship, it’s hard for me to imagine them getting more for Harden than they’d get right now. At the end of the day, I totally understand how valuable Harden has been to the organization, and that it would be devastating to have to move on from him after coming so close to championships so recently. And don’t mistake it: the Rockets came extremely close. But they need to find out what they can get for Harden because I genuinely believe it could be ridiculously substantial and set them on a course for their next longer-term contender.

If the Rockets decide that they’re willing to move Harden now, the team that stands out to me as the one who should get involved is Golden State. This would require owner Tilman Fertitta and general manager Rafael Stone being willing to help Golden State and send them Harden. And it would require the Warriors to be interested in Harden. But it’s hard for me to imagine the Rockets getting a better package than the No. 2 overall pick in this draft (even with the questions I have about it, the value of getting high-upside talents on rookie-scale deals is vast and the lottery odds are flatter now, meaning locking in a pick that high is difficult moving out into the future), the top-three protected Minnesota 2021 pick, and a far-out-into-the-future Golden State pick along with a flier on Andrew Wiggins for salary matching purposes and a young rotation piece in Eric Paschall. And if you’re the Warriors, and you have the opportunity to recreate the Big Four they had while essentially replacing Durant with Harden, you do that, right?

Let’s say the Warriors aren’t as interested in Harden, and would rather have Ben Simmons (and the Rockets would prefer to move Harden to the East.) Is there a world where a three-team deal exists where Harden goes to the 76ers, Simmons goes to the Warriors, and that No. 2 pick, the 2021 Minnesota pick, the 21st and 34th overall picks in this draft, a future GSW pick, and other various assets for salary matching go to Houston? This deal is totally speculative on my part, but I think the number of permutations in a Harden deal is essentially limitless because we’re talking about a larger treasure trove of assets than normal and a top-five player in the league under multiple years of team control.

These are the kind of scenarios that exist in a real way if you’re the Rockets. I don’t think you settle for what Brooklyn has to offer. After all, the Rockets have great leverage due to Harden’s current contract situation. I like Caris LeVert a lot, but I don’t think he can be the top asset in a deal for James freaking Harden. He doesn’t have enough potential upside. If the Nets want to get involved, they need to make calls to get a third team involved. Despite what Harden wants, the Rockets aren’t just going to take any old offer for Harden from Brooklyn. I would venture those are the kinds of calls happening. Trying to figure out what three-team scenarios are on the board to get the utmost value for their franchise star.

That last thing I will note: the Rockets are set to swap picks with Oklahoma City next year. However, that pick swap is protected if Houston ends up in the top-four. So there actually is some value here to the team bottoming out in a Harden deal as opposed to trying to get assets that help now. Again, the lottery odds are flat, and you’d be talking about a slightly better than 50 percent chance to keep the pick of you ended up with a bottom three record, but a 50/50 shot at ending up with Cade Cunningham, Jalen Green, B.J. Boston or Jonathan Kuminga is better than trying to get back positive assets now. The West is way too good for a team like Houston to move Harden and stay competitive at the highest levels. Having said that, the West is also good enough to where it’s easy to bottom out and end up with a bottom three record, especially in a season where it’s expected that there will be much more geographically-based scheduling.

If the Rockets decide to keep Harden, then they’re probably shutting down more calls than they’re taking.

 

Draft profiles for players I like from the Athletic. If you want any others, let me know.

Patrick Williams | F | Florida State | Birthdate: Aug. 26, 2001 (Age: 19) | 6-8 | 225 LBS | Hometown: Charlotte, N.C.


BACKGROUND: Parents are Janie and Eddie, both of whom played low-level college basketball. Has slowly but surely been percolating as a prospect for a long-time. Started for four years at West Charlotte High. Early in high school, he was a 6-foot guard. But continued to grow throughout his time. Emerged as an elite prospect as a junior, when he averaged 21 points, eight rebounds, four assists and three steals per game. Was even better as a senior, leading West Charlotte to a state championship game. Played with Team United on the AAU circuit. Was a consensus five-star recruit ranked No. 26 in the class. Chose Florida State over a bevy of high-major offers. Freshman year at Florida State was good, not elite. Played a role. Came off the bench for most of his games, playing just 22.5 minutes per night in the Seminoles’ deep squad. Slid into his role on both ends though and played well. Ultimately was named the ACC’s Sixth Man of the Year, as well as getting named to the All-Freshman team in the league. Was also on the ACC’s Academic Honor Roll. Declared for the draft early because he has been considered a one and done since the start of the season, and teams think of him as a first round pick.


STRENGTHS: The big key here is Williams’ size. At 6-foot-8 with a near 7-foot wingspan, he has the potential to be the kind of versatile forward that teams covet. He plays really hard, too. More than that though, even, his frame is absolutely elite. Williams looks like he’s been chiseled out of granite, with enormous shoulders. As he gets into his mid-20s – remember, he already looks like this at 19 years old -- Williams looks like he’s going to be able to gain another 15 pounds of muscle with ease. He already uses that strength across the court really well, as it’s tough to go through him. Some teams even think that he’ll be able to push down and play the small ball 5 at some point in switchable, end-of-game lineups.

A big part of the reason teams think he has a shot to do that is because his defensive feel, reactivity and IQ is off the charts good for a teenage wing. He’s a monster in help defense both on the perimeter and as an interior rotator. As a rim protector, he’s an absolute force rotating over from the weak side for blocks and contests. His timing when going up to swat shots is strong, and he has a quick second jump for a secondary contest after the initial attempt. His form when just contesting with verticality is also very strong. He gets very high, goes straight up and down with his arms, and his core strength allows him to absorb contact while downhill drivers just bounce off of him as he holds his ground. Averaged nearly two blocks per 40 minutes, and he’ll be a real threat as a weak-side rim protector at the 4 in the NBA.

Also really good at rotating in help defense when not involved in the primary action. Seems to operate purely off of instinct while keeping his arms raised high in his stance with good fundamentals. Gets a ton of deflections because he seems to have strong hand-eye coordination and reactivity. Good in ball screen coverages at playing in the perfect gap on the weak side, and a good at closing out and using his length to contest shots.

Offensively, he’s raw but shows a lot of tools based off of his feel. Williams is a smart, instinctive cutter who times his moves toward the basket well. Knows how to relocate into dangerous spots. Seems to understand where to move in order to be a more dangerous offensive player off the ball both when spacing and when cutting. Also a terrific offensive rebounder for his size. Just finds little areas and uses his quick first and second jump to corral shots. He also shows some very real passing upside. Grew up playing as something of a point-forward on the AAU scene, and has maintained some of that dexterity with the ball. Can knock down the occasional pull-up jumper from the midrange when attacking a closeout. Comfortable handling with either hand in the open court and in advantage situations where he has a mismatch or where a closeout has come far too heavy. Not a creator necessarily, but can create looks for his teammates off the secondary action when defense is scrambling.

Also occasionally makes some real high-level passing reads. Can hit a cross-court, one-handed off-hand kickout off of a live dribble drive. Will hit cutters going toward the rim. The numbers don’t show it because his role was fairly limited at Florida State, but Williams does have some real upside as a passer and playmaker, especially within a team construct where he is just a cog, not the main piece.


WEAKNESSES: Williams is kind of a blank canvas in some regard at this point because he’s still very raw skill-wise. There are a lot of tools in his game, but not many of them are polished enough to be placed into an NBA setting right now. For instance, his jumper is inconsistent. Williams made just 32 percent from 3 this season. While he displays some touch, he doesn’t really have consistent enough mechanics. Sometimes, the shots are moon balls with an extremely high trajectory. Other times, they’re more natural coming out of his hand. In general, the shot is not very fluid and it takes him some real time to get it off. Has a bit of an inconsistent release point and seems much more comfortable taking pull-ups from the midrange than he does 3s off the catch. Definitely can’t take a relocation dribble into a step-back 3 right now off of a heavy closeout. Given that 3s off the catch will be much more important than pull-ups for him, he has to get more comfortable shooting. I think he has enough touch to where he probably gets there in time off the catch and hits at a reasonable 35 percent or so, but it’s not there yet. Also has a tendency to turn it over a bit more than you’d like to see.

Not a monster explosiveness athlete. The one real concern teams have on Williams’ defense is that he occasionally got driven this year. His feet are a bit heavy. His lateral quickness isn’t quite as strong as other defense-first wings like OG Anunoby. He sometimes can struggle to cut off driving lanes with his defensive slides. Gets driven on closeouts more often than you’d like to see, partially because of the slow quickness and partially because of a tendency to go for deflections pushing him out of position. Much better as an off-ball havoc-wreaker than he is on the ball.

On offense, he doesn’t quite finish as well at the rim as you’d expect because he doesn’t have great vertical pop when contacted. Good in transition, but not quite as strong in the halfcourt. Only made 55.6 percent of his shots at the basket in the halfcourt, and doesn’t throw down dunks as often as you’d think for this kind of skill package. He’s a two-foot load leaper where it takes him an extra split second for him to get momentum to go upward, allowing defenders that extra time to recover and contest. Very rarely goes up off of one, and doesn’t seem to have much craft as a finisher beyond going through or over the top of guys at the rim. Again, just very raw in terms of his bag of skills there.

SUMMARY: Williams has risen in the minds of teams throughout the draft process for a couple of reasons. First, they really went back through the tape after the stoppage and saw all of the defensive potential and offensive flashes. Even though he didn’t start and play a crazy amount of minutes, those are real tools that teams think they can continue to develop. Second, the NBA playoffs happened and teams continued to realize how important it is to have secondary players that can play high-level defense and play with great feel offensively. Williams ticks those boxes at a very high level. As long as Williams knocks down 3s at a 35 to 37 percent level off the catch, he’s going to be a really high-level player for a long time. There’s a somewhat low-likelihood outcome of star upside, given his feel as a passer, his pull-up shot, and his comfort as a ballhandler in advantage situations. But I think he probably settles in more as a starting caliber 4 who helps winning teams with defense and playmaking.

GRADE: Lottery pick

 

Killian Hayes | G | Ratiopharm Ulm | Birthdate: July 27, 2001 (Age: 19) | 6-5 | 215 LBS | Hometown: Cholet, France

BACKGROUND: Was born in Lakeland, Fla. His father, DeRon, played basketball for Penn State, then turned pro and moved around a lot early in his career, playing in the ABA, Portugal, Russia, Ukraine and France among others. In 1998, he played in France and met Hayes’ mother and his wife Sandrine. Hayes was born while DeRon was playing in Lakeland in the ABA. After a year, Hayes got another contract playing in France and moved the family there. In that vein, Hayes straddled two worlds when he was younger. He spent his school year in France, then spent his summers in the USA. Has not taken a traditional route. Considered going the high school route in the USA but decided to stay in France developing with Cholet’s youth team.

Also was offered the opportunity to play with INSEP, the sports institute that develops elite basketball players at youth levels, but he turned that down as well. Instead, he started playing for Cholet’s Espoirs team at a very young age, which is the French developmental league. From there, quickly made a name for himself and has long been established as an elite-level prospect. In 2017, he was named to the roster for the Jordan Brand international game and won MVP at just 16 years old. That following summer, he led France to a gold medal in the U16 Euro Championships. He won MVP of that event and firmly established himself as a potential lottery pick. Similarly, in 2018, he was named to the All-Tournament team at the U17 World Cup, where he led France to a silver medal. However, he kind of stalled out in 2018-19 in his first professional year. Played a solid role as an 18-year-old for Cholet’s senior team but didn’t seem quite ready for the kind of stardom anticipated. There was some concern that his development had slowed down and that he was an early peak guy because he was so big and well-built from an early age. Instead of staying in France, he moved to Germany this past season to play for Ratiopharm Ulm. There, he morphed back into the guy that everyone thought he was. Playing on-ball, Hayes was excellent for a good, mid-tier German league team as the team’s starting point guard. Also succeeded in the team’s Eurocup games. That put him back on the map for teams in the lottery. He declared for the draft and following the pandemic shutting play down, decided not to return to Germany to finish out his team’s season there in the playoffs. Hayes is considered a mature kid who should have no issues adjusting to the NBA off the court.


STRENGTHS: All about Hayes’ ability to make plays with ball in hand. Plays with tremendous pace and poise. Creative ballhandler with the ability to freeze defenders with changes of pace, inside-out moves and little shoulder fakes. His best skill is his passing ability. He whips passes around the court with his left hand off of a live dribble or a stand-still with ease. Sees the entire court at a very high level. A monster out of ball-screens. Can hit his roller with pitch-perfectly weighted lobs or strong pocket passes. Can hit that cross-corner kickout. When he needs to, he can dial it up and really throw a hard one with his left hand. Doesn’t quite have as much style or flashy passes as LaMelo does, but it’s honestly not that far off. His basketball IQ as a distributor is very high.

Flashes the ability to be a three-level scorer. Good footwork and balance around the rim. Absorbs contact well because of his solid frame and has tremendous touch playing through it. Keeps rim protectors off balance because he can hit them with a weird mix of wrong-footed finishes and angle-changes from finger rolls to floaters. Made 58.6 percent at the basket this season in the half court according to Synergy. That floater comes up in the midrange as well as an interesting tool. Really great touch on it and it should be a weapon for him from 7 to 14 feet. Also comfortable pulling up from that range. You see some of his impressive step-back skill here, but more of it from behind the 3-point line.

Indeed, while I generally have questions about Hayes as a shooter long-term, he does have some real upside as a pull-up shooter. His footwork is so clean and allows him to maintain balance moving backward without fading away. His release is also extremely clean in these settings despite what the 29.4 percent number from 3 says. Overall, Hayes hit his pull-up jumper at a 48.8 effective field goal percentage, which is a strong number (although not quite one that you can live off of).

Defensively, I quite like Hayes’ upside. Has the frame to be a good defender at 6-foot-5 with strength. Solid length with a 6-foot-8 wingspan. Also has the basketball IQ necessary to be solid on that end. Great with his hands on the ball as a disruptive force. Handles lead guards well because he uses his size and good lateral quickness to frustrate their driving lanes. Does a solid job of getting through screens, but could stand to improve with age. Generally, a positive force off the ball because he can shoot passing lanes and is a smart rotator within scheme but can lose engagement from time to time and get lost. Not an All-Defensive team guy but should be part of good defensive teams.


WEAKNESSES: Two big ones as it refers to his playmaking. First and foremost, there are few guards in the NBA who are as single-hand-dominant as Hayes is. Just about everything is with his left hand. NBA teams from Day One will force Hayes to go away from that left hand and prove that he can make plays when they sit on it. I’ve watched all of his assists this season and I’m not sure I can remember an instance of him making a high-level live-dribble pass with only his right hand. Does make two-handed passes at times, but just generally wants to get back to his left every single time.

In general, Hayes doesn’t quite break down defenders and get as much separation as you’d like to see consistently. He’s an average athlete for the lead guard spot. The flashes are real, and the highlights show some upside that says he can be the type of three-level attacker that NBA teams covet at the lead guard spot. But over full games, he just doesn’t get that level of penetration into the teeth of the defense consistently. Struggles to deal with high-pressure guards. Needs a ball-screen to get free. Took under two shots at the rim per game in the half court according to Synergy, plus one floater from the midrange per game. Sometimes gets stuck in the midrange area without options after picking up his dribble, leading to turnovers. Can get a bit wild with his passes in terms of accuracy, but for the most part okay there.

Additionally, It’s hard not to look at a guy who only hit 29.4 percent from 3 this year and question the jumper. Hayes has consistently made free throws throughout his career but has failed to make the 3-point shot at a level commensurate with those percentages. In fact, over the last three years from 2017 onward, we have a sample of about 400 3-point shots from Hayes. He’s only made them at a 27.2 percent clip. He’s an egregiously bad shooter off the catch, completely losing the rhythm he shoots with getting into his shot off the bounce. Has significant work to do there. And in that vein, if the jumper off the catch isn’t working all that well, he’s largely resigned to being an on-ball creator. Can he push off ball next to better players if he can’t shoot off the catch? Would need either this to improve or hope the entirety of the rest of his skillset translates.


SUMMARY: There is a real world where Hayes can become a high-level on-ball creator in the NBA. His creativity, feel for the game and potential to make plays is high. It’s fairly easy to see him turning into a top-half starting point guard. It’s easy to understand where the D’Angelo Russell comparison comes up. But I think Russell was way ahead of Hayes in terms of his craft on his handle and on his jumper. If Hayes can improve in those ways, he has a real shot to be a difference maker. But similarly to Russell, he could really struggle in isolation and need ball-screens to separate regularly. That’s not the worst thing in the world, but it does take longer to set those kind of plays up and it often results in the offense standing around while a re-set happens and those guys dribble the air out of the ball. James Harden can do it and make it efficient because he’s one of the best offensive players of all time. When someone like Russell does it, it’s effective but there are real diminishing returns. That’s the kind of player Hayes will likely be unless he really improves as a shooter off the bounce.


GRADE: Lottery

 

Kira Lewis Jr. | G | Alabama | Birthdate: April 6, 2001 (Age: 19) | 6-3 | 175 LBS | Hometown: Meridianville, Ala.


BACKGROUND: One of the younger players in the draft class despite having played two years at Alabama. Parents are Kira Sr. and Natasha. Only attended high school for three years. Went to Hazel Green High in Alabama outside of Huntsville. Lewis was excellent in all three seasons for his age, making All-State in the final two seasons. Really emerged, though, in his final, junior season. Averaged nearly 30 points on his way to leading Hazel Green to the state semifinals. Was a finalist for Alabama’s Mr. Basketball award, but lost to Trendon Watford. Chose to graduate early, reclassify, and attend college a year sooner than expected. Was considered a consensus four-star prospect just outside of the top-35 in 2018. Committed to Alabama over Indiana, Kansas, Baylor and others. Immediately became the Crimson Tide’s starting point guard from Day One. Was the youngest player in college basketball in 2018-19, and achieved real success despite that being the case. Was named to the SEC’s All-Freshman team, and helped Alabama toward nearly making the NCAA Tournament as the team’s leading scorer. However, coach Avery Johnson was fired after Lewis’ freshman year. Led him to consider transferring. Put his name in the portal to hear from other schools. Ultimately decided to stay at Alabama under new coach Nate Oats, which was the right decision due to the team’s style of play. That summer, he also played at the Nike Basketball Academy and was selected for the Team USA U19 team that won the FIBA U19 World Cup last summer. In his sophomore season under Oats, Alabama played at the fourth-fastest tempo nationally. Lewis became one of the most productive players in all of college hoops. Was named first team All-SEC. Decided to declare for the draft following that sophomore season.


STRENGTHS: Has a case as the fastest player in the draft. Incredible speed, both in the open court and with his first step in the halfcourt. Will have very few issues blowing by most players. Particularly excels in the open floor. If he gets a loose ball, he’s gone and it’s a pick-six the other way. If he gets a rebound, he can grab and go in a hurry and create an odd-man break that just doesn’t look like it’s there. Worked perfectly in the construct of Alabama’s uptempo offense, where the goal was to push the pace all the time. He’ll do the same in the NBA, which will help his and his team’s efficiency in the way that they beat the defense down the court.

Has also really improved this year as a halfcourt player, though. Has built in some real diversity off the bounce. Better set up moves, better footwork in pick-and-roll. The great speed is there, and he gets downhill in a hurry while keeping control of the ball. At times, can look like he’s in fast-forward while the defense is playing at regular speed. But he can also maneuver around guys at high speed, as well. Absolutely hammers switches onto bigs or slight mistakes in hard hedge scenarios with his ability to split defenders. Very few bigs will be able to stay in front of him at the NBA level because he will blow by them. He generates a ton of shots at the rim, even in the halfcourt, up over four per game.

In that vein, he just scores at a high level. Gets buckets at all three levels. Generates shots at the rim, as mentioned above. Has a nice in-between game. Hit 20 floaters this year, although only made them at a 35.7 percent clip, which must improve. Comfortable stopping on a dime off and pulling up from midrange, where he made 10 of his 21 attempts from 12 to 18 feet. Can also hit the pull-up 3. More than that, though, he profiles well to playing off the ball next to a high-level wing creator because he can shoot off the catch. Lewis hit his jumpers off the catch at a 61.9 effective field goal percentage according to Synergy, making 26 such 3s. I absolutely buy into him as a shooter. Defenders largely have to stay attached at all times. He’s just a very real shot creator.

Having said that, Lewis used to get really sped up in the past. He did a better job of slowing down and being patient this year. Was more willing to take a pound dribble at the nail and keep a defender attached to his hip while surveying the court and seeing what the help would do. Started hitting the occasional cross-corner kickout and cross-wing kickout. Definitely more comfortable as a scorer, but not an uncomfortable passer and decision-maker anymore, either. And clearly on an upward trajectory as a playmaker as he continues to improve his pace.

Willing defender who fights through screens. Has very obvious strong lateral quickness. Really does a good job of getting over the top of screens, and would fit well in a drop-coverage scheme because of his speed and willingness to contest in recovery. Off the ball, he has great instincts for when he can take a swipe in a dig situation or gamble on jumping a passing lane. Sometimes gets a bit gamble-y, but generally takes calculated risks without getting too far out of position. And even when he does get himself out of position, his recovery speed is terrific.


WEAKNESSES: Really needs to add strength and weight to his 175-pound frame. Shows up most around the basket. Not the best finisher at the rim because he often fades away from contact. Made under 50 percent of his shots at the basket in halfcourt settings according to Synergy. Does a good job of trying to use his length to extend and finish when he gets there, and can change the angle on rim protectors. But if he gets bumped, it arrests his momentum and he slows way down. Generally not an explosive vertical athlete with pop, which is where the comparison to someone like De’Aaron Fox falls flat.

Needs to improve the tightness of his handle. Can get loose with it, which leads to strips and turnovers. In general, Lewis turned it over 3.5 times per game this season, which led to about a 1.5 assist-to-turnover ratio. A lot of those turnovers end up being ball control turnovers where he seems to get out ahead of himself a bit with his speed. Should improve with age, but he’ll need to really work on his control and continue to improve his patience.

Have some concerns defensively about putting him in a switch-y scheme. Just doesn’t have the strength right now to hold up at the point of attack. Gets pushed through regularly, and gets driven way more often than you’d like to see. Doesn’t have much lower or upper body strength in comparison to NBA guards. Without that requisite strength level, there is a chance he could be a real negative on defense even with the high effort levels.


SUMMARY: I’m a bit higher on Lewis than the consensus because the speed is just so real. He’s going to be able to create separation at a high level in the NBA, and he’s able to finish plays relatively well with his shooting acumen. The ability to get separation, then finish plays is a combination that tends work at a high level in the NBA. I think he has a real chance to be a starting point guard in the NBA. How high he rises will depend on how good he gets as a finisher, and how much his frame develops over the next few years. If he can get into the 190-pound range, improve his core strength and ability to play through contact, and maintain the speed that makes him so effective, Lewis could legitimately be a top-half of the NBA starting guard. He’s never going to be an elite finisher, but if he can improve his floater game and start to accept contact, it would really open up his developing playmaking ability. That’s because teams would have to respect him at the basket with more dedicated help defenders. I actually think the upside here is quite high if the strength keeps coming along. I’d pretty comfortably take him in the lottery.


GRADE: Lottery

 

Tyrese Maxey | G | Kentucky | Birthdate: Nov. 4, 2000 (Age: 20) | 6-3 | 200 LBS | Hometown: Dallas, Texas


BACKGROUND: Parents are Denise and Tyrone. Dad played basketball at Washington State. Tyrese is very smart. Finished in the top-five percent of his high school’s graduating class. Has an encyclopedic knowledge of the Marvel Cinematic Universe. Engaging personality and he performs well in interviews. Went to South Garland High in Dallas. Quickly identified as an elite player within his class due to performances on the AAU circuit and in high school. Played for RM5 and was consistently among the best players in the Nike EYBL. For South Garland, was named all-state in Texas in 2018 and 2019. Won Texas Mr. Basketball in 2019 as the best player in the state. National All-American in high school and made the McDonald’s All-American game. Also played at Nike Hoop Summit and Jordan Brand Classic. Has been involved with Team USA basketball from an early age, too, winning a gold medal at the FIBA U18 Tournament in Canada in 2018. Consensus five-star recruit who was ranked in the top-10 of his class by the end of his senior year. Chose Kentucky over Texas, SMU, Michigan and Michigan State. Had a monster opening night against Michigan State where he was the best player on the floor in a high-profile Champions’ Classic game. Then settled into a secondary role on Kentucky behind Immanuel Quickley. Still, was recognized for his high-level play as a freshman. Was SEC All-Freshman, and made second team All-SEC. Continued academic success, too, as he was named freshman All-Academic Honor Roll in the SEC. Was an expected one-and-done and lived up to that expectation as he declared for the 2020 NBA Draft following his freshman season.


STRENGTHS: Good size and length for a combo guard in the NBA at 6-foot-3 with a 6-foot-6 wingspan. Consistently plays hard. Also has a great frame. Very strong and physical at 200 pounds. Well-built and will translate to the NBA in that regard. Looks like an NFL safety. Uses that physicality and strength well to play through contact at a high level.

Maxey’s best skill right now is his scoring instinct. He has great feel for how to score the ball. Plays with tremendous tempo as a ballhandler with all sorts of inside-outs and hesitation moves. Likes to jab step to try to get the defender off balance. Kind of like a junk baller pitcher in the ways that he tries to get a defender leaning. Good shooter at lower levels, with projectable touch and shot mechanics. Honestly, the pull-up shot looks great. He has terrific rhythm and it’s incredibly smooth. It’s an easy shot. Really gets into his pull-up game at a high level. Great balance coming in and out of his moves makes him a threat to pull-up from almost any angle, and going to either his right or his left. Unsurprisingly, that makes him a pretty real threat, particularly in the midrange. Maxey hit a ton of pull-up midrange jumpers this season, and did so from all sorts of projectable situations given the way that teams play that area now. You give him a ball-screen or an advantage situation attacking a closeout and he can really get to that pull-up whenever he wants.

Also has a tremendous floater game. Great touch. Was top-25 nationally in points scored off of floaters this season with 52 according to Synergy. Really does a great job of getting downhill and stopping on a dime and popping up with a quick-release push shot. That touch also extends to when he’s driving toward the rim. Absorbs contact well after getting downhill. Keeps his eye at the rim and really does a great job of lofting up a shot with touch that has a chance to go in. Great footwork around the rim, as well. One-footed leaper who does a great job of keeping rim protectors off of their angle. Can be a real contortionist in the air to get the angle he needs to finish. Makes it really tough on them to time when to go up to protect the rim. His 52.5 percent mark around the rim in the halfcourt was only about average nationally, but it’s a solid mark for a combo guard.

A very good defender. Love his potential as an on-ball defender. Plays really hard on that end, and uses his length and strength to really bother opponents. Attacks with forward jumps into offensive players’ bodies, then can slide to stay in front and recover. Really just pesters and makes it hard on ballhandlers. Again, because of his strength it’s really hard for guys to go through him. He slides and cuts off the angle, then absorbs contact if someone tries to play through him. Again, this is where you see his overall balance shine. Fights through screens at a high level. Can guard up the lineup a bit because of that strength, although his 6-6 wingspan isn’t overly long and makes him a threat to get shot over the top of. Also generally does a good job off the ball. He talks to his teammates well, and shoots passing lanes. You can’t throw lazy passes around him. Pretty good rotationally and good on switches.


WEAKNESSES: Did only hit 29.2 percent from 3 this season despite those projectable traits. Why? He has had a penchant for inconsistency early in his career, and takes tough shots. Additionally, has a very low release point. That leads to two things happening more often for him than it does for others. First, he gets contested a bit more easily than other shooters. In order to combat that, he often has to move back and take deeper 3s, which obviously are a bit tougher than 3s right behind the line. Not always awesome as a spot-up shooter as it takes him an extra split second to load into the shot with a ball dip to push him into rhythm. When combined with the low release point, he has to get rid of that to reach his ceiling as a shooter.

While he does have great balance, he does not have terrific burst or pop. That lack of explosiveness held him back a bit even at the college level. Struggled a bit as an isolation scorer, because guys can stay in front of him. If a defender is disciplined in what he’s doing and doesn’t fall for all of the jab steps and hesitations, he can really nullify what Maxey is doing. Maxey will need to find an offense that has him play off of constant ball-screens, dribble-handoffs and movement to get him separation, because he can often end up taking tougher shots without them. You’ll also see at times how the lack of vertical pop around the rim can hinder him as a finisher.

Finally, I’ll note that his passing is a bit weak for a guy slated to play as a combo guard. Averaged over three assists per game, but his passes are mostly of the easy read variety. He misses a lot of passes that are available in favor of tougher shots. Just doesn’t always see them as he’ll get tunnel-vision. Ultimately, that’s a question of where he fits best in the NBA. He’s best defending on the ball, and his pull-up game is terrific. But he’s not nearly a good enough distributor to play the point right now, even in a score-first conscious-NBA. What role does he play on a winning team? Can he fit into every situation?


SUMMARY: Ultimately, I think Maxey will find success in the NBA, and the key will be role. Teams with big wing initiators who play on the ball a lot should look at Maxey as a high-level option. Think of Boston with Jayson Tatum, Miami with Jimmy Butler, Dallas with Luka Doncic, and plenty others. The role where he’ll work best is as the nominal point guard, where he can be a monster at point of attack defense and just work to space the floor and create plays out of advantageous situations as a scorer. Almost a secondary ballhandler role at the lead spot. I don’t really think Maxey quite has the burst to consistently break down defenders in the way he needs to play as a primary, and I don’t think his distribution skills are advanced enough. But if he can play next to someone who can break down defenders in the primary action, he’s going to be incredibly useful out of secondary actions due to his pull-up game, the projection of his jumper, and his ability to get downhill and finish. Throw in defense, and I think Maxey has a chance to affect winning at a real level in the right situation.

GRADE: Late lottery to No. 20.

 

Cole Anthony | G | North Carolina | Birthdate: May 15, 2000 (Age: 20) | 6-3 | 190 LBS | Hometown: New York, N.Y.


BACKGROUND: A fascinating upbringing. Anthony’s parents are Greg Anthony and Crystal McCrary. Anthony is a former NBA player who spent 11 seasons for six teams, and is now an announcer. Greg is still a high-profile person in basketball who is well-known. McCrary is a former lawyer who is now an author and filmmaker. McCrary is now married to Ray McGuire, who is Anthony’s stepfather and a former global head of corporate investment and banking for Citigroup, making him one of the most powerful people on Wall Street. McGuire has recently started a campaign for New York mayor. Anthony grew up in a penthouse in New York City with his mother, and his biological father is still involved in his life. Was immediately identified as an elite prospect in his class. Was the first freshman to start his first game for Archbishop Molloy. Made the all-conference team. Then exploded as a sophomore. He averaged 21 points, seven rebounds and six assists while leading Archbishop Molloy to the city league finals. He went on to the Nike EYBL circuit the next summer for PSA Cardinals and won the Defensive Player of the Year award. The following season at Molloy, Anthony dominated again but his team was bounced in the Catholic League semifinals. That summer, he won EYBL MVP after putting up an absurd stat line, but his team didn’t fare overly well again. He chose to transfer to Oak Hill Academy for the fall, where he’d be the leader of the powerhouse basketball program. There, he led his team to the national high school semifinals and became the first player in that illustrious school’s history to average a triple double. He won the Virginia Gatorade Player of the Year and was named to all of the McDonald’s All-American, Nike Hoop Summit and Jordan Brand Classic teams. In each of those events, he pulled off a rare feat: he swept the games’ MVP awards. Unsurprisingly, Anthony was a consensus top-five recruit in the class as a five-star. He was one of the final major recruits to commit that spring, and chose North Carolina over Notre Dame, Georgetown and Oregon.

At North Carolina, however, he had a bit of an up-and-down year. Dominated an opener against Notre Dame, and generally put up points and numbers as the Tar Heels struggled around him. Then in mid-December, he tore the meniscus in his right knee and had to undergo surgery. He chose to return on Feb. 1, and played out the rest of the season around a bad North Carolina team. The Tar Heels had their first losing season under Roy Williams at 14-19, and went just 10-12 with Anthony in the lineup. The team around Anthony was bad, but he did not necessarily elevate the group. He chose after that lone collegiate season to declare for the draft, where he’s considered a bit of a wild card on draft night. His season was strange, plus he is considered a very polarizing personality.


STRENGTHS: A good athlete at 6-foot-3. Has some real pop with his first step. Was considered in the same class of athlete as Russell Westbrook in the EYBL, but he’s clearly not that. However, he’s a very creative guard with ball in hand and finds ways to separate from the defense.

For the most part, he separates to score. Right now he’s best doing so as a jump shooter. And he plays with the eternal green light to fire with confidence. He has a great tool bag of set-up moves and crossovers to get his defender off balance. A very comfortable ballhandler with a tight dribble. Great footwork into his jumper. When looking to score, he has a few favored moves. Above all, he’d prefer to get to that step-back going to his left. Has the footwork for the side-step Dame Lillard jumper down pat, and it’s his go-to move. Can do it going to his right as well, where he can plant his foot and really explode backward to create a few feet of separation before hitting the fadeaway to the right. Loves the jab step to freeze the defender followed by a jumper. Generally a consistent jump shooter off the dribble, having hit at a 44.0 effective field goal percentage, according to Synergy.

This polished step-back game paired with good touch also makes him one of the better isolation guards in the class. Can really break down guys and get them off balance, then explode by or explode backward for a reasonable shot. Definitely most comfortable in ball-screens, though. North Carolina’s offense generally does not run a ton of ball-screens, and it definitely does not space the floor well out of those sets.

This season, the Tar Heels only finished 18 percent of their plays out of pick-and-roll sets either with passes or shots from the ballhandler. That was 306th nationally, according to Synergy. That was also a marked increase from the previous two years. In 2018, the team only derived 14 percent of its offensive possessions out of ball screens, which was 336th. Last year, the Tar Heels only derived 13 percent of their offense out of ball screens, which was 340th despite the presence of another first-round pick in Coby White. The team around him also shot 29.1 percent from 3, meaning opponents just loaded up to slow him down in those settings by digging down onto him and by helping off of one of the two bigs that North Carolina had on the floor nearly at all times that he was. Basically, North Carolina was a spectacularly bad fit for Anthony, and he didn’t get enough opportunity to play in ball-screens.

Having said that, he should be relatively effective as an off-ball lead guard. Anthony hit his catch-and-shoot jumpers this season at a 60.1 effective field goal percentage. He has a bit of a ball dip that slows down the release, and he’s a left eye dominant shooter who brings the ball across his body a bit. But he clearly has good touch even if he short-arms the ball a bit on his follow-through. Anthony should be able to hit tough shots in the NBA, and he should be able to hit easy ones off the catch.

I’m also a fan of Anthony’s defensive game. He’s not huge, and his arms are pretty short. But he’s tough and really battles on the ball. Takes pride, gets down in a stance, and slides with his opponents, mirroring their footwork. Does a pretty good job getting through screens.

Gambles to get into passing lanes, but gets home often enough to make it worthwhile. Also an excellent defensive rebounder for his size. Reads the ball really well off the glass, then grabs it to start the break early. Really helps his team by crashing the glass and getting them out in transition more often than they otherwise would.


WEAKNESSES: There are a few things going on here as to why Anthony wasn’t quite as effective as expected, even beyond his teammates. He shot 38 percent from the field and posted a 50 true shooting percentage. His turnover rate was high and his assist to turnover rate was way too close to 1-to-1. So what happened?

First, let’s start with the athleticism. I don’t think he maintains his explosiveness that we see in the open court when playing in the halfcourt. Throws down massive dunks when no one is in front of him defending, but doesn’t really ever do that when there is a rim protector there. One could blame this on his teammates and the crowd that he was surrounded with all year, but I don’t quite think it’s quite that simple. Anthony didn’t really look like the explosive athlete many anticipated of him coming through high school. In general, he doesn’t really explode through contact in a real way, and it takes him some real load time to generate power. He plays through contact well on the floor because he’s strong and has good balance. But contact also pushes him into being a real below-the-rim guy. Can he get the same separation he did in college, and can he finish efficiently once he gets that separation in the NBA? I think it’s a real question.

That was seen in his finishing this year. Anthony was a dreadful finisher. He made just 39.2 percent of his halfcourt attempts at the rim this season. He does show some really graceful footwork and finishing acumen, and can change the angle on rim protectors when driving. But for the most part, he’s a relatively limited finisher because of three things. First, he just doesn’t have all that much vertical pop in the halfcourt.

Second, to compensate for that, he really tries to load up off of two feet to compensate for it often, which hangs him out to dry and doesn’t quite give him as much of a chance to adjust while on the ground. Third, he has really short arms with a nearly even wingspan to his height. I would expect him to have some spectacular, highlight-reel finishes in the NBA, but for him to be a below-average finisher overall.

His passing ability is also pretty difficult to judge. He was a relatively poor decision-maker this year and consistently missed a ton of open passes to his teammates in favor of tough shots on his own. He shot 38 percent from the field this season because of the poor finishing and because he took a crazy number of difficult shots while his teammates watched. Also turned it over a ton because he got crowded after failing to make a quick read pass. It’s a tough thing to gauge. Did he take these shots because he thought they were the best shots because his teammates were bad? Or was he just missing open looks? I think it’s a combo of the two. In high school, Anthony was a relatively good passer. In college, he was pretty good at finding dump-offs and pocket-passes to rollers toward the rim but rarely hit kickouts. Can he consistently hit the open kickouts in the NBA when he’s surrounded by better players? Will he be more willing to? One other thing he’ll need to do: be more accurate on his passes. Generally, his passes were all over the map in terms of where his teammates received them.

 

SUMMARY: Yeah, Anthony is another one of the tougher evaluations in this class. There is a lot of reason for hope based off of his high school/EYBL tape, and based off of the disaster fire that was his team situation this season from an offensive context and teammate perspective. But you also can’t just hand-wave the season he had at North Carolina. The athleticism not translating in the way that was expected really happened. His off-target passing and poor decision-making was real. So what do you do with that? I’m not sure. I think there is a chance Anthony develops into a solid starting point guard if the jump shooting keeps improving at its current rate and his decision-making gets there. He could be a really tough guard. Also, there’s a good chance he’s a backup point guard because he takes too many tough shots and doesn’t hit his teammates, so the NBA team that takes him has to bring him off the bench as a microwave guy. I feel confident he’s an NBA player, but he has to prove that he can be a winning one still, given that his teams have generally not performed up to expected standard when he’s been the top dog. Whether Anthony can lead a successful team remains an open question, which is why he falls just outside of the lottery for me despite being a terrific ballhandler, good pull-up shooter and trustworthy defensive player who showcases real toughness.


GRADE: Mid-first round, but will be all over the map for teams.

 

That's a shorter version of Porzingis, but with better playmaking.

P.S. I thought that Dragan Bender would be Porzingis 2.0 lol

 

Wow! I had no idea. That's sad, if it's true.

 

I have a feeling it will be a international stash. Not getting my hopes up here.

 

STRENGTHS: The strengths are elite, and the weaknesses are concerning. And to be frank, basically everything at this stage is theoretical because the quality of competition is just not particularly strong in second division Greece. Having said that, this is a genuinely unique player. There isn’t really anyone who has presented this combination of skills at this level at this size and weight. That isn’t to say they’re the best, just different. At 7-foot tall with a 7-foot-3 wingspan and over a 9-foot standing reach, he has NBA center size measurements and length. That is particularly impressive because Pokusevski also moves around the court like a wing. His coordination, fluidity and speed is not that of a 7-footer. He moves exceedingly well, and has tremendous balance coming off of high-level offensive actions.

Pokusevski is a legit perimeter player at this size. That is his skillset. This a 7-footer who can legit run off of screens, set his feet and fire. Olympiacos used him basically as a wing coming off of baseline and pin-down screens. He hit just 32 percent from 3, but those attempts were fairly high-degree difficulty in the actions that he would run. Everything about his release is fluid. Has a bit of an exaggerated ball dip, but a very compact shot that has a very clean release coming out of his hand. The level of shot diversity he has is pretty staggering for his size. He made shots like side-step, pull-up step-backs to the right, fadeaway shots to his right on the move, pull-ups going around ball-screens, step-back, relocation shots off of flare screens to his left. It’s just kind of wild.

In large part, he’s capable of all of this because of his coordination both without and with the ball. Pokusevski is comfortable putting the ball on the floor with either his right or left hand, especially out in transition. Can execute somewhat advanced footwork and crossovers at reasonably high speed. Can eurostep and change angles at the basket to finish with finger rolls and touch. More than that though, Pokusevski is a pretty exceptional passer for his size. He’s not Nikola Jokic or anything, but he makes really high-level reads and executes high-degree-of-difficulty passes. Can make them off of a live dribble with dump-offs to guys in the dunker spot or with either hand on cross-corner kickouts. Or, can stop and survey the court and make whip passes or touch passes from a standstill. His passing and general unselfishness might be his best skill.

Finally, it’s worth noting how active and reactive he is defensively. He’s a terrific weak-side shot blocker who gets a lot of blocks from behind or rotating as the secondary rim protector. Gets a ton of deflections coming over from the weak side because he sees the game and is more athletic than most players in that second division of Greece. His blocks and steals metrics are among some of the best recorded in recent draft years. He makes a ton of plays happen because his feel for playing basketball is really high.


WEAKNESSES: Honestly, one of the most bizarre, difficult-to-project players I’ve seen, in large part due to relatively limited sample size. Teams only have 35 games and about 700 minutes to evaluate over the last three years, and very little of that tape comes against high-level quality of competition. Even the typical one-and-done freshman in college has two-to-three times that amount of tape. To put it into perspective, NBA teams have been able to wrangle more tape of James Wiseman in AAU and high school settings than they have of Pokusevski. Teams will be picking Pokusevski without much certainty.

He is extremely skinny right now. It wouldn’t be a stunner if he was under 200 pounds at 7-foot tall. He gets moved and pushed around even in the Greek second division at times. The production is not as elite as you’d anticipate it to be for the competition level. The highlights look great, but the fact of the matter is that he’s still a guy averaging about 11 points while shooting 40 percent from the field in second division Greece. The overall tape when you watch it is a bit less than the sum of its parts. The flashes are great, but the consistency just hasn’t quite been there yet. Then again though, he’s 18 years old playing against professionals. Is it valid to complain about him lacking consistency?
The real, biggest concern, though, is that he’s also not overly explosive. Much more fluid than he is quick-twitch. Struggles to elevate over the top of players around the basket and isn’t really so quick that he can just blow by defenders in isolation-type situations. If he gets bumped at all, it slows down his momentum in a real way. It is exceptionally difficult to play in the NBA if you can’t play through contact. This is why he doesn’t finish nearly as well at the rim as you’d expect. Only made about 53 percent of his shots at the basket in the halfcourt, a number more in line with a guard who is strong at finishing. In general, he has not had any boundaries put on his game. It’s helped his skill level improve and develop at a young age, meaning it’s going to benefit him in the long run. But in the short term, Pokusevski has a tendency to make some wild passing reads where he thinks he has a window, and it’s really just a five percent chance at completing the pass. Goes for the flash over the smart play sometimes. Also can over-dribble a bit.

Finally, has real issues guarding in space when on the ball. Just hasn’t really done it at either the international or club level. Really, really poor defensive stance. Can get driven easily on close-outs. Doesn’t fight through screens when deployed as more of a perimeter player. Doesn’t always make the solid rotational read, and instead will go ball-hunting. Much better as a floater away from the ball where he can wreak havoc with his length as a rim protector and passing lane ball-hawk. Kind of a riverboat gambler, too.

Ultimately, the big question here is what exactly is his role? He’s a mismatch magnet right now on defense because he’s not strong enough to battle inside against bigs, and not a good enough perimeter defender to play out in space. Even though he’s excellent and active away from the ball, teams would just involve him right now in every single action and force him to guard ball-screens in space, play solid gap defense as a drop guy, or get posted up.


SUMMARY: Genuinely the most interesting player in this draft. Has skills that are honestly just totally elite and unlike anything in today’s NBA. It is so incredibly easy to sell yourself on Pokusevski having more upside than almost any player in this class. His ability to shoot at that size is rare. His fluidity at that size is even rarer. His passing ability both from a standstill and on the move is pretty bananas. But he also has flaws that could completely crater him as an NBA player if they don’t work themselves out. He doesn’t really have a defensive role at the moment. He can’t really play through contact on offense efficiently. So where does that leave him? Honestly, I have no idea. You could sell me that a team with a strong developmental track record could take him in the top-10 and I wouldn’t bat an eye. You could also sell me that he should go outside of the top-20. I’ve split the difference here at No. 15. I’m not totally sure I can sell myself on using a lottery pick on him, but the upside is so great that it’s tough for me to go lower. You could tell me Pokusevski ends up like Jan Vesely and out of the NBA quickly, or you could sell me he turns into an All-Star. The sample size we’ve seen so far isn’t representative or big enough to have any degree of certainty with Pokusevski. But what I do know is that there are real tools here, and his career is going to be one of the most interesting to track in this draft going forward.

 

I like Poku a lot. The more I watch the more I like. Saying that, he’ll probably be a bust.

 

Darn, Portlander getting better defensively just makes them a contender for 2nd or 3rd round at best again.

But it is a pain in the a for the other playoff teams.

 

Is that the breadstick guy?

Yeah, I would select someone who is talented, strong and can be used right now.

I mean Boban Marjanovic plays differently too and is just bench fodder.

 

Rockets to Pick #16

 

Yeah it is, but really there isn’t another big with his skill set or potential in the draft.
Some starters and rotational players but none that could be elite.
But he also has big bust potential.
If he’s there at 16, I think that’s the type of player you draft there.

 

Dude could be a Kukoc, KD, Porzingis type or he could never make the league.