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The Rockets’ timeline back to relevancy

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by bmd, Jun 27, 2022.

  1. bmd

    bmd Member

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    I did a little bit of research on some teams who have recently tanked to see how long it takes to go from blowing it up to playing meaningful games again.

    I looked at teams such as the 76ers, Grizzlies, Hawks, and the Suns.

    The general timeline seems to be the team stinks when they trade everyone away in year 1. Get a high draft pick and stink in year 2. Get another pick and stink in year 3. Show some improvement in year 4. And make a big leap into the playoffs in year 5.

    The only team of the 4 I listed to not follow this trend exactly is the Suns, who took 6 years to make their leap instead of 5.


    Memphis:

    22-60

    33-49

    34-39 (38-44 estimate)

    38-34 (43-39 estimate)

    56-26


    Atlanta:

    24-58

    29-53

    20-47 (25-57 estimate)

    41-31 (47-35 estimate)

    43-39


    Philadelphia:

    19-63

    18-64

    10-72

    28-54

    52-30


    Phoenix:

    23-59

    24-58

    21-61

    19-63

    34-39

    51-21


    Averages minus Phoenix:

    22-60

    27-55

    24-58

    39-43

    50-32



    Using this timeline, the Rockets may be just as bad this upcoming season as they have been the past two. They should make improvements next year, and the 2024-25 season is when we should expect to really get into the playoff mix.
     
  2. War Machine

    War Machine Member

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    3-4 years before they’re a top-4 team in the West imo.
     
  3. don grahamleone

    don grahamleone Contributing Member

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    @The Cat was saying that a healthy Eric Gordon had us at a play in game win pace last year. I don't know what you consider relevant but we're on people's radar. Hell, Bill Simmons' jackass even hated on Jalen Green last year. He doesn't **** on nobodys.

    We're somebody!
    [​IMG]
     
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  4. TheJuice

    TheJuice Member

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    Barrring injury or something major, we'll have a solid young team in two years. The big question is going to be whether Segun is able to play the 5 on defense or if his offense will fit...as well as which young guys stick around to play with Jal-bari
     
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  5. Joe Joe

    Joe Joe Go Stros!
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    Improvement isn't linear. Trying to set a schedule on return to being a contender is how teams go 2 decades without a good team. The Rockets will be very fortunate if a star(s) are available in the 2023 offseason. The Rockets are going to pounce if a young star/potential star become available by the trade deadline. The Nets for instance, may want to trade Durant in a few days. While the Rockets are unlikely to bite on someone like Durant, they could easily get in as a third team and pickup an young stud as the Nets may want one of their picks back. On the other side of the coin, if they can't get anyone great this next offseason with cap space, they may punt cap space a season or 2.
     
  6. bmd

    bmd Member

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    It’s a general timeline. I’m not saying this is the exact timeline every rebuilding team must follow.

    But the reason it probably tends to work out this way is because star players usually make a big leap in year 3. That would be year 4 on the team’s timeline. And after the star player shows that improvement, that’s when the team goes all in.
     
  7. SamFisher

    SamFisher Virtuous

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    SHOULD I PUT MY TANKS AWAY IS THIS A PLAYOFF TEAM <EOM>
     
  8. Verbal Christ

    Verbal Christ Member

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    2024 Rockets make the playoffs. 2026 first of 3 consecutive championships. ;)
     
  9. KingSamJack

    KingSamJack Member

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    If those nets picks are top 3, and we become a playoff team after next season, I can see us becoming the next dynasty by 2025 if everyone hits.
     
  10. D-rock

    D-rock Member

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    Fastrack the timeline by trading Rockets 2023 FRP to OKC for Chet Holmgren.

    Wembayana sweepstakes is pyrite imo.
     
  11. DaDakota

    DaDakota Never Trump
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    It just depends upon how fast the young guys learn how to play together and trust each other - the fact that we are very young is probably a reach, we could accelerate the process by trading some of our extra pieces for proven veterans at some point, but first we need to identify 3-5 players that we are committing to build around.

    I think we have TWO of those right now confirmed and a bunch trying to get there.

    Jalen Green and Jabari Smith are the only two I think we are guaranteed to build around.....we have several below that that MIGHT be there, or might get there.

    KPJ, Sengun, Eason, Christopher

    And we have many that might be just below that.

    Nix, Tate, Garuba, Ty Ty, Queen, Mathews, NWaba


    Etc..etc...etc..

    DD
     
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  12. Verbal Christ

    Verbal Christ Member

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    Anyone but Banchero right? Really dodged a bullet!! LMAO! :D:D:D
     
  13. don grahamleone

    don grahamleone Contributing Member

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    [​IMG]
     
  14. larsv8

    larsv8 Contributing Member

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    One more year in the dumps, then its time to ascend.
     
  15. Scarface281

    Scarface281 Contributing Member

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    Rockets gonna be a year ahead of schedule and I think the 2023-2024 season is a play-in opportunity. Why? because I'm a Rocket homer. Stone is a drafting mad man. that's the real reason I think the Rockets' comeback will be accelerated.
     
  16. DaDakota

    DaDakota Never Trump
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    2 years minimum, 3 years probable, 4 years max.

    DD
     
  17. xaos

    xaos Member
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    Depending on where we land in the draft 2023 we could be talking the team to beat for a century or a team closer to Memphis in terms of talent/success/outlook. We should be moving on up by 2024 and possibly playoffs 2025. By then we'll also have players signed in free agency or traded for as well so that's too hard to estimate
     
  18. Os Trigonum

    Os Trigonum Trust the process
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    leave the tanks, take the Severo

    Severo Silas as Severo.jpg
     
  19. The Cat

    The Cat Contributing Member

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    I think this is a fascinating topic, but I don't know how many of the historical comps work. There is so much more parity now, even compared to last decade. Even five years ago, you could count on a handful of smaller-market teams in the West — Suns, Kings, Grizzlies, maybe Timberwolves — being bad every year and in a perpetual rebuild cycle. Now, even those types of teams are doing everything they can to win now.

    Glass-half-full view: There really aren't any super teams these days, so if you make the right choices in the draft, it can come together very quickly (Memphis) and you can make a rapid rise up the standings. Even more so if you supplement draft hits with appropriate win-now veterans (Phoenix) once you have financial flexibility.

    Glass-half-empty view: Even if you do improve, it's way harder to climb the standings than you might think when everyone else is also trying to win. Most of those teams have their own draft picks and young players, and some of them are going to organically develop and improve, too.

    IMO, the big variable may be upcoming CBA negotiations and if there are any further incentives to keep star players in their original markets. You've got competing interests — one side has ringz culture, player empowerment, and big-market lifestyle and advertising, the other has the value of making fans/stakeholders in all 30 markets believe they actually have a chance to build and sustain a contender.

    To circle back to the Rockets and the timeline here, I think there's an edge for us if player empowerment wins out. I just don't think the current parity is going to stick in an era where stars are increasingly judged by rings and exposed to loudmouths on social media, and the Rockets should be set up to climb quickly once the right guys start getting disgruntled.
     
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  20. steddinotayto

    steddinotayto Contributing Member

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    The Rockets haven been fortunate enough to have kept their 2021 pick (instead of losing it to OKC) and stayed in the top 3 this year (instead of dropping down to 5th). Tack on the fact that Rafael keeps handing out Stone Cold Stunners on his picks I think this team is on a faster-than-expected timeline to get back to playoff contending status (the former 8-seed stuff, not the BS play-in crap). The timelines of when our young guys are expected to rise to the top and when the teams like Golden State, Phoenix, both LAs, etc are descending hits almost perfectly.
     

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