Barack just broke that demographic in Virginia http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/epolls/index.html#VADEM in fact, he broke through a lot of demographics
Yeah, honestly, I don't know enough about Ohio to really say. I get the sense it's, like you say, more blue collar traditional Democrats. Texas is more of a weird mix of Dems. Demographically it's OK - more black voters than NM, fewer latino voters, and Obama basically tied in NM. I also don't get the sense that Texas dems are as "traditional" dems as Ohio would be. Plus, the half-caucus nature of it means that if Obama keeps the popular vote close, he could still win the delegate vote. I have no idea how that would be spun in the media, though. Hopefully can be on a 9-contest winning streak and just break through and win one of the two. If so, I think the race is unofficially over at that point. The superdelegates will swarm in mass to Obama and ultimately Hillary will have to concede before PA. If she holds her own in both states, then on we go to PA, and then the FL/MI issue becomes much bigger.
CNN just announced that Obama has passed Clinton in total delegates. I really hope that Obama turns out to be who he seems to be, and that he lives a long and healthy life, but no matter what happens I think the Obama phenomenon has awakened the hopes of a new generation not only in the US but around the world. Out of crisis can come renewal, and with Obama, or more specifically with what Obama has come to represent, the US could go from the back of the pack to being world leaders, in terms of visionary leadership.
Not looking good for Clinton. Deputy campaign manager resigns now. All the changes at this stage doesn't bode well. http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/02/12/clintons-deputy-campaign-manager-resigns/
I think she would have to concede before superdelegates came "en masse," just so it doesn't look like they were trying to decide the race instead of the voters.
Certainly possible - but on the other hand, if he's won 10 straight contests and then splits TX/OH, he's going to be well ahead by all measures and it will be virtually impossible for Clinton to catch up without the help of superdelegates. At that point, there's six weeks before PA. A lot of DNC bigwigs (Dean, included) have said they would like to resolve the contest in March or early April. If that is the opinion of superdelegates too, it might push them to do it just to force the issue. I don't think Clinton concedes until after she loses the Superdelegates - otherwise, between them and FL/MI, she can try to drag it all the way to the convention.
Obama receives backing of Obama If foreign nationals were permitted to select US presidential candidates, the senator from Illinois would be assured of the votes of the people of Obama, a fishing town on the Japan Sea coast that has taken its namesake to its heart. Residents in Obama - small port in Japanese - have formed a support group whose members are monitoring every twist and turn in his bid to become the Democratic candidate. As the race for the nomination heated up, the town's tourism office received a stream of calls from locals wishing Obama well. On Super Tuesday, supporters nervously clutched photos of Obama as they watched the results come in at their makeshift headquarters in a hotel, whose lobby is currently home to a large portrait of the candidate. Obama's most ardent fans, who include a hotel executive and a couple of farmers, believe their campaign, like that of their hero, is gathering momentum. With his name recognition at an all-time high, they plan to produce hachimaki "victory" headbands - a common campaign accoutrement in Japan - themed lacquerware chopsticks, and manju sweet buns bearing his name and face. "I think our support base will keep growing", Seiji Fujihara, the group's secretary general, told ABC News. "We wanted to do something because Mr Obama doesn't feel like a stranger to us. He's like a relative to us." Residents started taking a close interest in Obama's political career in 2006 after a customs official claimed on TV that the senator had joked about his "Japanese origins" on arrival at Narita airport. The town's mayor, grateful for the free publicity, sent Obama a personal letter of thanks, a set of chopsticks and a tourist brochure. The Narita exchange could be apocryphal, but the people of Obama, previously known only for its seafood and Chinese-influenced architecture, are grateful all the same. "The publicity could last for another four or eight years if Mr Obama becomes president," an advertising agency executive told the Zakzak news website. "In terms of advertising costs, that's free publicity equivalent to billions of yen, or even more." At Campaign Obama's Japanese HQ, plans are being made to send a delegation to Washington early next year if his bid takes him all the way to the White House. His opponent for the Democratic nomination, meanwhile, has won a small but ardent following among workers at a factory in southern Japan that makes construction equipment. The elections are giving the firm's "Hillary" transportation machines unprecedented media coverage. Launched after Bill Clinton became president in 1992, the machines are said by builders to be robust, yet easy to manoeuvre. http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2008/feb/11/japan.barackobama/print
This is great. Politics has never seen anyone pick up this kind of momentum and bring together so many different demographics. I'm so excited. But still a long way to go. If Obama wins this thing, Mccain has no chance to beat him, IMO. Won't even be close.
Uh, Howard Dean had all kinds of momentum. There were talks of him revolutionizing fund raising, appealing to a broad generation of young voters, taking the bottoms-up grassroots approach to coalition building... huh, sounds familiar. And of course we know how that ended... with four years of a Dean Presidency. Oh wait, no it didn't. Dean flamed out and went t*** up in front of a national audience. When America figures out that literally the only thing Obama is good at is reading from a teleprompter, then it will be time to vote. Obama is a RICH target for the Republican Machine. RICH. Obama: Saying Nothing Better than Anybody
The difference is that Obama's actually done it. Record numbers of voters in virtually every state. Record grassroots fundraising. Record numbers of people involved in the campaign. He's accomplished the trifecta you just noted.
This was the T_J prediction on the GOP side less than two months ago: http://bbs.clutchfans.net/showthread.php?t=139425&page=2&pp=20 For the good guys, I think Huckabee fizzles out after Iowa. Once he loses his momentum, he goes t*** up rather quickly. Romney will need to make big in-roads into Giuliani's strong positions in the big Super Tuesday states by winning NH/SC/MI. That's his key and his early states strategy. Without success there, I think Giuliani takes it. The two guys he thought would battle it out were the first to go (besides Fred, who never really ran). Huckabee didn't quite fizzle out after Iowa. And McCain wasn't even mentioned. Good call, T_J!
This is just a very short article without a lot of substance, but this line represents what a whole lot of Canadians are feeling these days, imo. "Where are the Canadian Obamas?" Where are our men and women of vision? Where are the souls who will awaken our own souls to callings higher than real estate? The trouble is the bar has been set so low in recent years, who would want the damn job? http://www.canada.com/theprovince/news/editorial/story.html?id=e8b776d8-c56b-4f94-8353-30b02101cae8
This is completely idiotic and you have no idea what you are talking about. Howard Dean's bubble was ready to pop. His campaign organization was pathetic and he was doomed to crumble even without his infamous speech after Iowa. The campaign Obama has put together is quite incredible. He really has revolutionized fund-raising and used it to build a ground organization that will be copied in the future. Dean was a flash in the pan who had 15 minutes of fame and got trampled by a weak, sorry candidate like John Kerry. On the other hand, Obama is beating Clinton Inc. Howard Dean's campaign is more like Huckabee's, except Huckabee's is actually better.
say what you want Howard Dean was the one with the idea for democrats to become competitive in every state (a strategy Obama has adopted). He was the one that went against the "East Coast, West Coast idea of winning the Dem nomination. He laid the groundwork for a lot of Obama's fundraising stratgies.
Well Howard Dean has just screwed up big time. There will be no suspense in Florida. Those disenfranchised voters will go Republican en masse. California, and possibly New York, may end up in GOP's pocket as well.
Absolutely - Howard Dean has been a phenomenal leader of the DNC. For a very long period, the Dems ceded state after state to the GOP, to the point of ridiculity. It will take a while - and maybe a candidate like Obama - but the Dems need to break into more heartland states for the longterm health of the party.
Uhhh.. What on earth makes you think CA or NY would go GOP? It's like you just make stuff up and hope it sticks. As for FL, it's likely to go GOP because it's trended that way over the past 8 years (note the popularity of Jeb Bush and Crist), but it won't have anything to do with the primary vote. No one's going to say "I believe in Democratic philosophies, but 8 months ago my primary was screwed up, so I'm going to vote for the other guy". That's total nonsense.
