For those of you interested, here is the "accidentally" leaked Obama spreadsheet breakdown of how they project this to play out (starting after Super Tuesday). It ends with Obama up by 67 delegates. He includes losses in TX/OH/PA amongst a few others. Of the first four states, he solidly outperformed projections. He's leading Maine right now, though early. He should solidly outperform the Tuesday primary projections, though he might have overestimated his Wisconsin/Hawaii results.
LOL -- game over. Just show him to the white house now. That picture is awesome. He is a natural in any setting.
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Agree that spending some dedicated time in OH/TX/PA will definitely help, but it looks like more and more people are jumping on the bandwagon everyday. The undecideds have been picking Obama at a much higher rate than initially expected. Not to mention former John Edwards supporters giving him a boost as well. Hmmm, Arizona was a pretty decisive Clinton win, and Hispanics far outweigh the black population there. The same applies to NM to a certain extent. So not sure if I agree with that. Hispanics in general tend to favor Clinton though, so you'd think the black and white vote for Obama would help cancel some of that out.
I thought Maine would be one place where Hillary actually had a decent chance to do really well, if not win outright. I think VA will be her best bet for winning on Tues. Though, hopefully the momentum from this weekend will help Obama in all the states on Tuesday.
Thanks that was an interesting article. At first I thought that he went a little to political, following hillary's speech was not about politics and she didn't go after Obama at all. However, his speech seemed quite presidential... more so than his previous speeches. He sounded not like a candidate running to be the nominee, but a nominee waiting to be the President. He did a great job talking about both policy and answering those who criticize him for being a hope only guy.
This story just gets stranger and stranger. I'm normally the anti-conspiracy theorist, but this really does seem like the GOP wanted McCain to win and just cut off vote counting as soon as he was up a bit. It just doesn't make any sense whatsoever. http://talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/177863.php WTF? 02.10.08 -- 9:58PM By Josh Marshall As you know, here at TPM we've been really curious what happened up in the Republican caucus in Washington state. For probably the first time in all the primaries and elections I've ever watched, the folks running the election decided to stop counting the votes with 13% of the votes uncounted. And this wasn't a 70-30 blow out, but a tight race where the two top vote getters were separated by less than 2% of the vote. Then this morning, state party chair Luke Esser decided to declare McCain the winner. Now, when we were watching this last night and I was trying to examine the tea leaves this morning, I was assuming they'd come forward with some story that there was some hang up with the votes or some mechanical issue. Whether it would be true is another matter. But you'd think you'd at least come up with a good story. But state party chair Luke Esser said that he just thought it was the right thing to do. According to Esser, sometime overnight Esser did some sort of back of the envelope statistical analysis of the the margin of McCain's lead (1.8%) and the number votes left uncounted (13%) and decided that Huckabee didn't have a chance and he'd shut the thing down and declare McCain the winner. So was that a good idea? Here's Esser's rationale ... “Maybe it would have been safer if I hadn't said anything. But it was an exciting and historic day for the state and I thought if I was confident about what the outcome would be I should share that with the people who had gone out to their caucuses.” So it was just such a rollicking good time Esser figured he owed the participants a decision as long as he was confident what the outcome would be. I'm really not sure I've ever heard anything that ridiculous. In terms of consequence, Bush v. Gore it ain't. This is a relatively small contest in a nomination campaign that appears to be over. But this is something you'd expect either from Soviet history or a farcical passage in a Faulkner novel. And let's not forget the context. Huckabee starts the day with a blowout win in Kansas. That evening he gets the largest number of votes in Louisiana. Then in the third contest he's neck and neck with John McCain and looks like he may win all three contests of the day -- a shut-out for the all-but-declared nominee. Then as it's going down to the wire, the head of the state party decides he's seen enough and calls it for McCain. Here at TPM, as we watched the rate of the reporting slow to halt on Saturday evening, we joked amongst ourselves that with McCain already getting beaten by Huckabee twice that day maybe the organizers of the election figured that if they just held out long enough people would just forget they'd held a caucus. But as it got later and later we started to wonder if it wasn't a joke. I still find it pretty hard to imagine these bozos would try something quite this brazen. And it may well be an electoral tempest in a teapot. But this one looks and quacks like a duck. So someone should give it a much closer look. Late Update: It seems that Washington State GOP chair Luke Esser spent most of the day avoiding calls from the Huckabee campaign. And when he finally got back to them he told a lawyer for Huckabee's campaign that they'd probably count the rest of the votes some time next week. When the lawyer, Lauren Huckabee, the candidate's daughter-in-law, requested that a Huckabee lawyer be present when the remaining votes were counted, Esser hung up on her. Before the hang up, Huckabee also asked Esser about the DIY statistical analysis he did to conclude that he should call the race (Esser's expertise in statistics apparently stems from previous work as a state prosectur and a sports writer). Was there an analysis of what precincts the remaining votes came from? According to Huck campaign manager Ed Rollins, Esser admitted that he didn't which precincts the remaining votes came from.
Interesting article here regarding Texas' "arcane" delegate system. Apparently, since voter turnout was low in some of the predominantly Hispanic districts back in '04 and '06, they don't have as many delegates allocated. Texas' arcane delegate system suddenly comes into play AUSTIN — For the first time in 20 years, Texas will have a heated presidential primary election next month, a contest that will bring the state's complex primary and caucus system into play for Democratic hopefuls Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama. "Texas arguably has the most arcane system in the country," state Rep. Juan Garcia, D-Corpus Christi and an Obama backer, told the Houston Chronicle in a story published Sunday. "There are a lot of people scrambling to get smart on it in a hurry." The Democratic and Republican primaries in Texas are March 4. The Clinton-Obama tussle for national convention delegates is extremely tight, especially after Obama's victories Saturday in Nebraska, Washington and Louisiana. The last time the Texas Democratic convention delegation was at stake in the midst of a national fight was 1988. Michael Dukakis won the statewide primary that year but virtually split delegates evenly with Jesse Jackson because of the state's unique Democratic nominating process. Here's a short version of the party rules, which are 11 pages long. A total of 126 delegates will be awarded based on the outcome of the vote in each of the 31 state senatorial districts. But the number of delegates available in each district is not equal: Delegates are allocated based on the votes cast in districts in the 2004 and 2006 presidential and gubernatorial elections. In the heavily urban, black districts of state Sens. Rodney Ellis of Houston and Royce West of Dallas, a good voter turnout in the past two elections means a combined total of 13 delegates are at stake in the two districts on Election Day. Obama nationally has been winning eight out of 10 black voters, according to network exit polls. But in the heavily Hispanic districts of state Sens. Juan Hinojosa of McAllen and Eddie Lucio Jr. of Brownsville, election turnout was low, and a combined total of seven delegates are at stake. Clinton has been taking six of 10 Hispanic votes nationally. So a big South Texas win might not mean as much for Clinton as a big win for Obama in the two black districts. In 1988, Dukakis won the statewide primary with 33 percent of the vote, followed by Jackson at 25 percent. Al Gore had 20 percent and Richard Gephardt had 14 percent. But despite Dukakis' clear plurality victory, he split the state's delegates almost evenly. Dukakis took 72 delegates, Jackson 67. Forty-four were uncommitted. "In '88, Jesse Jackson paid attention to the caucus process and had grass-roots organizers," said Garry Mauro, a former state land commissioner and Hillary Clinton supporter. "Dukakis did not pay attention to the caucus process." The state's Republican primary is not nearly as complicated. If the GOP race is still alive between Sen. John McCain, the front-runner, and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee when the primary arrives, they will find an equal number of nominating delegates available in each of the state's 32 congressional districts. http://www.statesman.com/news/content/gen/ap/TX_Texas_Delegates.html
Obama 'would be killed' Monday, 11 February 2008 The Nobel Prize-winning novelist Doris Lessing says she believes Barack Obama would be assassinated if he were elected president. Asked if she supported Hillary Clinton or Mr Obama, Lessing told the Stockholm daily Dagens Nyheter "it doesn't matter," but suggested the two should join forces in the election. "It would be best if they ran together. Hillary is a very sharp lady. It might be calmer if she wins and not Obama," Lessing was quoted as saying. "He would probably not last long, a black man in the position of president. They would kill him," Lessing said on Saturday. She did not specify who she believed would kill Obama. Her agent did not answer phone calls seeking comment yesterday. Lessing, 88, who won the Nobel Prize for Literature last year, is known for her strong and sometimes contrary statements. In October, she told a Spanish newspaper that the September 2001 attacks were "neither as terrible nor as extraordinary" as many people thought. The Swedish Academy, which awards the Nobel Prize, praised her "scepticism, fire and visionary power". http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/obama-would-be-killed-780703.html
Sure it makes sense! The GOP can’t embarrass the presumptive nominee by having him swept by the insurgent, evangelical candidate the weekend after he supposedly is crowned the republican frontrunner. Witness a party being ripped apart.
