It was a lot less exciting than I expected. The delegates were seated, and when they proposed approval of the seating of of the delegates, a couple of Paul delegates challenged it. They had already been overruled in committee, and they were overruled again in the convention. The chairman, who was a total jackass (the only person I met that wasn't exceptionally nice), basically said that he changed the rules, but by some article in the bylaws, he had the power to do it. There were some rule changes later that the Paul delegates challenged, and that was it. After that, Senator David Vitter gave a talk, and there were a steady stream of pro-John McCain speeches, most notably by Senator Richard Burr and former Governor Buddy Roemer. Then they elected the National delegates, and the "open for discussion" delegates elected an overwhelmingly pro-McCain slate. I think AP had McCain getting 35 of the 47 delegates. I talked to several of the elected delegates, and found it very interesting. They claimed to support Huckabee more, but were voting for McCain because they wanted to unite behind the Republican Party. They kept trying to tell me, a Republican precinct worker, that I needed to make sure that I lined up behind McCain, and I asked them if that showed them how unelectable he was. I asked them if they felt like they had to convince me, a Republican precinct worker attending a State Republican convention in a neighboring State, that I needed to make sure I voted for McCain, how the average Republican was going to feel the need to get out and vote? I was surprised, because a Conservative blogger that I didn't know heard me giving my speeches and walked over and supported me completely. The delegates seemed to have never thought of it like that. The Ron Paul lawyers told us afterwards that the Ron Paul campaign could probably win several delegates back in court, but that it would probably open a dangerous precedent. They said that it probably wasn't wise to get the courts deciding Party rules for us. I'm not done. The delegates that I talked to were very weakly for McCain, and I'm going to write them each a letter appealing them on the "Anyone But McCain" plea, appealing to them wanting to have some say in the election. If they can help get it to a convention without McCain having been chosen, it'll be better than nothing.
OK, I have no clue what to believe. FOX's exit polls are out and show a big win for Obama (51-49 Obama among women, 51-49 Obama among families under $50K). http://thepage.time.com/fox-preliminary-exits-for-wisconsin-democrats/ On the other hand, the Right Pundits blog has had some correct exits before, and... http://www.rightpundits.com/?p=1162#more-1162 So, we have everything from an Obama blowout to a Clinton win. Very odd. EDIT: the rightpundits site now has another exit poll with Obama 57, Clinton 41. Now that we're looking at a 2:1 ratio, it seems that is the more likely outcome...
For what it's worth, exit polls tend to overestimate Democrat and Obama support. Some people have theorized its because exit pollsters like to get younger voters because the pollsters are young and it's more "fun" or whatnot. Who really knows. We saw it with Gore, Kerry, and now many of these primaries with Obama. We'll see!
Another source estimates it's about 60-40 for Obama. But this campaign season, exit polls have been unreliable. I expect a very close contest. http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=YTU4NDQ4MDYyNjZkNjNkN2ZkODE1MTY0MDZmNWM0Y2Y=
I'm curious if a lot of these media sites are getting played. All evidence in the past week pointed to a 5-10 point Obama win. If that's the case, for expectations' sake... the Obama camp would want the exits to show a slight Clinton lead, while the Clinton camp would want the exits to show an Obama blowout. Granted, we can actually see one set of numbers, which gives credence to the Obama blowout talk, but it is FOX...
MSNBC has called it for Obama as well. Exit polling shows that voters felt Hillary's attack ads and tactics were more unfair.
I do on occation, but you're right! I need to tune in more. Just think Chris Matthews and Tim Russart are a putz sometime.
Obama is up right now by 15% with about 64% reporting. I don't know if that kind of margin will hold up, but that is a much larger margin than I would have dreamed.
It's obviously Obama's to lose now. Hillary cannot take it from him. Ever since her numbers started falling before Iowa, nothing she's tried has worked except the tears right before NH.
Update on Louisiana Republican mess: The Ron Paul campaign sent this letter to the RNC credentials committee. They will get a hearing with the RNC credentials committee at the Convention in September. If the committee rules in favor of the Ron Paul Campaign, Louisiana will lose 90% of its delegates. (I think it's possible for the credentials committee to remove fewer, but I don't know.) This does little for the Ron Paul campaign directly, but it seriously erodes the power base in the Louisiana Republican Party. Hopefully, they'll kick Villere out as chairman.
