MONROE: Midwest division team capsules BY MIKE MONROE FOXSports.com Oct. 14, 2002 2:18 p.m. Spurs 2001-02 record: 58-24 Coach: Gregg Popovich Key additions: Emanuel Ginobili, SG; Speedy Claxton, PG; Kevin Willis, C; Erick Barkley, PG. Key losses: Antonio Daniels, SG. Projected starters: Tony Parker, PG; Steve Smith, SG; David Robinson, C; Tim Duncan, PF; Bruce Bowen, SF. Key subs: Emanuel Ginobili, SG; Kevin Willis, C; Malik Rose, PF; Speedy Claxton, PG. Summer review: It didn't really happen over the summer — the Spurs drafted him in 2000 — but the addition of Emanuel Ginobili allows them to remain a step ahead of the Mavericks in the Midwest. Unless the ankle he sprained in the world championship semifinal game slows him appreciably, Ginobili should be starting before Christmas. The addition of Kevin Willis serves a dual purpose: insurance against more back problems for David Robinson and allowing Malik Rose to play backup power forward, with Tim Duncan sliding over to the pivot. Signing Speedy Claxton means they will run more even when Tony Parker is on the bench. Grade: A. Summer Outlook: A lot depends on how long David Robinson's back holds up, but the Spurs are the best team in the Midwest even if it doesn't. One thing is clear: They're going to run more, and with Duncan, Parker and Ginobili on the break, who's going to stop them? They're still better equipped to beat the Lakers than any team in the league, though that definitely requires Robinson to be at his physical best. Prediction: 58-24, first in division. Mavericks 2001-02 record: 57-25. Coach: Don Nelson Key additions: Popeye Jones, PF. Key losses: Wang Zhi Zhi, C; Johnny Newman, SF. Projected starters: Steve Nash, PG; Michael Finley, SG; Shawn Bradley, C; Raef LaFrentz, PF; Dirk Nowitzki, SF. Key subs: Eduardo Najera, SF; Nick Van Exel, PF; Popeye Jones, PF; Tariq Abdul-Wahad, SG. Summer review: They thought they had sneaked Rashard Lewis away from the Sonics, so their failure to do so made their summer a bit of a disappointment. Losing Wang was no big deal and they're much better off bringing Popeye Jones, a legitimate rebounder, off the bench than Wang. Grade: C. Summer Outlook: They made a quantum leap last season, but their trade deadline deal for Raef LaFrentz, Nick Van Exel, Avery Johnson and Tariq Abdul-Wahad didn't get them any farther in the playoffs than they'd been the previous season and now they're stuck with another soft interior defender (LaFrentz). It's hard to see how they can be better than they were last season, or go any farther. Prediction: 55-27, second in division. Timberwolves 2001-02 record: 50-32 Coach: Flip Saunders Key additions: Kendall Gill, SG; Troy Hudson, PG. Key losses: Chauncey Billups, PG; William Avery, PG; Sam Mitchell, SF. Projected starters: Troy Hudson, PG; Anthony Peeler, SG; Rasho Nesterovic, C; Kevin Garnett, PF; Wally Szczerbiak, SF. Key subs: Gary Trent, PF; Joe Smith, PF; Marc Jackson, C; Loren Woods, C; Kendall Gill, SG. Summer review: It was hardly a good summer, not with losing Chauncey Billups to free agency and failing in efforts to land, oh, about a dozen free agents, including Larry Hughes and Ricky Davis. And then there was another setback for Terrell Brandon, who won't be ready to play again when the season opens ... if ever. Troy Hudson would have been a nice signing if he were signed as a backup. His faults will surface as a starter. Grade: D-minus. Summer Outlook: In spite of everything, they've still got Kevin Garnett, which mean's they've still got one of the league's top five players. Therefore, they'll still win their share of regular season games, maybe even 50 again. Prediction: 48-34, third in division. Jazz 2001-02 record: 44-38. Coach: Jerry Sloan. Key additions: Calbert Cheaney, SG-SF; Matt Harpring, SG-SF; Mark Jackson, PG. Key losses: Bryon Russell, SF; Donyell Marshall, PF; John Crotty, PG; John Starks, SG. Projected starters: John Stockton, PG; DeShawn Stevenson, SG; Jarron Collins, C; Karl Malone, PF; Andrei Kirilenko, SF. Key subs: Mark Jackson, PG; Calbert Cheaney, SG; Matt harpring, SF-SG; Greg Ostertag, C; Scott Padgett, SF; John Amaechi, PF-C. Summer review: They lost their No. 2 scorer, Donyell Marshall, and one of the best defenders, Bryon Russell, so their positive free-agent pickups have to be weighed against that fact. Add the fact rookies Raul Lopez and Curtis Borchardt both got injured during the summer and aren't likely to play, and that makes for a bad summer, indeed. Grade: C-minus. Summer Outlook: As long as they've got Stockton and Malone they're going to be competitive. And as old as they now are (40 and 39) Stockton and Malone remain better than most fast break combos in the league. The real question is how quickly Greg Ostertag can get back to full strength after donating a kidney to his sister. Believe it or not, how well they do depends as much on him as it does on Stockton and Malone. Prediction: 45-37, fourth in division. MIKE MONROE'S BREAKDOWN Rockets 2001-02 record: 28-54 Coach: Rudy Tomjanovich Key additions: Yao Ming, C; Bostjan Nachbar, SF. Key losses: Walt Williams, SF; Dan Langhi, SF. Projected starters: Steve Francis, PG; Cuttino Mobley, SG; Yao Ming, C; Maurice Taylor, PF; Eddie Griffin, SF. Key subs: Kenny Thomas, PF; Kelvin Cato, C; Glen Rice, SG-SF; Moochie Norris, PG. Summer review: Their whole summer was about getting the delicate negotiations with Yao Ming and the Chinese Basketball Association completed. It looks like that has been accomplished, and even though Yao won't be joining them until just before the regular season begins, his presence makes the Rockets a meaningful team again. Grade: A. Summer Outlook: It's going to take Yao Ming a while to become an NBA player — maybe even a couple of seasons — but the Rockets will be better this season anyway if they can just keep Mo Taylor and Glen Rice healthy. If Yao has an impact this season, they might even make the playoffs. Prediction: 42-42, sixth in division. Nuggets 2001-02 record: 27-55 Coach: Jeff Bzdelik Key additions: Marcus Camby, PF-C; Nene Hilario, PF-C; Nikoloz Tskitishvili, SF; Predrag Savovic, SG; Rodney White, SF. Key losses: Antonio McDyess, PF; Mengke Bateer, C; Voshon Lenard, SG; Calbert Cheaney, SG; Scott Williams, PF. Summer review: Few teams changed as much as the Nuggets from last season to this season, but when you've been as terrible as the Nuggets have for so long that's not a bad thing. GM Kiki Vandeweghe dumped a ton of horrible contracts with an eye to the future. The future isn't now, however, and they will be horrid once again. Grade: B-plus. Summer Outlook: Any chance they had to win more games this season than last ended when Marcus Camby had preseason surgery. Since part of Vandeweghe's master plan no doubt involves one more shot at a high lottery pick, this is not necessarily a bad thing. Prediction: 18-64, seventh in division. Grizzlies 2001-02 record: 23-59. Coach: Sidney Lowe. Key additions: Drew Gooden, PF; Robert Archibald, C; Cezary Trybanski, C; Earl Watson, PG; Wesley Person, SG. Key losses: Rodney Buford, PG; Grant Long, PF. Summer review: Drafting Drew Gooden gives them a shot at back-to-back Rookies of the Year. Gooden immediately will move into the starting lineup. Cezary Trybanski is a 7-footer from Poland who has a chance to make an impact in a few more seasons. Grade: B-plus. Summer Outlook: Pau Gasol is stronger and bigger than he was in his stellar rookie season, and with Drew Gooden on hand Gasol will get to play more at small forward, where he will be bigger than most of his defenders. If Jerry West can help turn Jason Williams into a more controlled point guard, this team could be the surprise of the league and make the playoffs. Prediction: 43-39, fifth in division. Mike Monroe can be reached at his e-mail address, cjudge@foxsports.com. Spurs http://foxsports.lycos.com/content/view?contentId=709564 Rockets just can't get any respect!
DearRock, Also, trades have to be addressed. If either of our 10 players gets traded and missed less than the 15 games before the trade, then thats just too bad. Agreed? One more thing, DNP-CDs dont count as missed games. Only injuries.
Me email to Mike: 1. Probably you should use the team's record of two years ago as a guide. If you do then you will appreciate that your projection is on the low side. 2. Terence Morris is having a great camp and preseason. Numbers match or exceed those of Griffin, Thomas and Taylor. Unquestioned the deepest team in the west and more equipped to handle the Lakers.
Yeah I am sure. I cannot be talking about our depth and then nickle and dime on games lost to injury.
Fair enough. How about this then. Ill go ahead and take a lower exemption for Duncan and only take 2 other 15 game exemptions for two more players. Thats a total of 3 exemptions. Ill go ahead and also give you a slightly lower exemption for Francis, but not quite as low as Duncan. Ill give you 4 other exemptions for whatever other plays yall decide on with the amount of games being equal to my two other players. This is what I propose: Spurs: 10 Game exemption for Duncan 15 Game exemption for Parker 15 Game exemption for Bowen Rockets: 12 Game exemption for Francis 15 Game exemption for 4 other Rocket players of your choosing It works out good this way in terms of being relative like I talked about earlier in this thread. I think it has to be that way. Losing Duncan will hurt the Spurs more than losing Bowen or Parker and the Rockets losing Francis will hurt them more than any other play yall choose. By giving me a lower exemption for Duncan, that supports me when I say that Duncans advantage is exponentially greater than any advantage the Rockets may have. By giving yall 2 extra exemptions, that supports yall when you say that depth 1-12 is where the Rockets have the advantage. How does all this sound?
Works for me. Hopefully the exemptions are not used and we could really see the true performances of both teams. Good luck!
Ok, So Here is The Bet: Based on regular season wins, with the tiebreaker (if the teams are tied) being wins against WC opponents, who will be better this year, the Rockets or Spurs? Codell's pick: The Spurs will have the better record Codell's exemptions: 10 games for Duncan, 15 games for Parker and 15 games for Bowen Codell's wager: Two tickets each for both DearRock and RiceRocket for the first home playoff game this season. If the Rockets dont make the playoffs, yet still finish ahead of the Spurs, then the tickets will be for the last regular season home game against Memphis. If both teams have identical records at the time of the Memphis game and are out of the playoff picture, then the tickets will be for the first regular season home game the following season. DearRock and RiceRocket's pick: The Rockets will at least tie or have the better record. DearRock and RiceRocket's exemptions: 12 games for Francis, 15 for Mobley, 15 for Griffin, 15 for Ming and 15 for Rice DearRock and RiceRocket's wager: Codell to stipulate new embarassing signature tags for both DearRock and RiceRocket to be used starting at the end of the current regular season up until the first day of training camp for the next season. Bet is null and void if any of the aforementioned exemptions are met on the losing side (i.e. if Francis misses more than 12 games but the Rockets still have a better record than the Spurs, then the bet is still active). DNP-CDs do not count towards missed games. Injuries only. If any of the 8 players named in this bet are traded before the end of the regular season, then the bet is still active unless said player met his injury exemption before the trade. ---------------------------------- I hereby agree to this terms.
I just don't see the Rockets making the top 4. It would be nice, but I'm not expecting that much out of Ming. This should be a running team. That means defensive rebounds, quick outlet passes without first posing with the ball. Teach Ming to do that and he'll be okay. That being said, until the Rockets learn what an assist is, moving the ball and looking for the open man instead of the constant one on one so called isolations, I don't see them going far.
Hard to explain. The best way to sum it up would, I mediate disputes between insurance companies and their policyholders and also serve as a desginated arbitrator and as an expert witness in litigation cases involving vehicle damage or accidents.
People make to much of a deal about assists numbers. As long as our players get good looks at the basket, it doesn't matter if it is from an assist, screen, post play, or just plain blowing by your man. Cleveland was the 7th highest in assists last year and San Antonio was third to the last. Assists are needed for teams that don't have the players to create their own shot. The thing about this team is that everyone in rotation can create their own shot which will help us during crunch time in the playoffs.
Codell, Thanks for the information, 'though not as I was hoping relevant to my line of work. BTW, do people betting against Codell realize the Rockets are probably going to have to win AT LEAST 50 games for you to have a CHANCE of winning this bet? The Spurs won 58 games last year, with 3 new starters. Those 3 are more comfortable, and more weapons and depth have been added. Last night the Spurs played 14 people (with 2 starters in street clothes, - 3 of those players won't even make the IR list), messed around with a 2-3 zone, and ran a 2 hour practice earlier that day...and the Rockets didn't have their normal rotation in AT ALL - S.F. wasn't even playing! Basing a bet on what you saw last night is not real bright. Codell has looked at last season's respective records, taken into account player moves, advancements, and team experience, has calculated what that means to wins and losses for each squad in relation to last year, has added himself an injury insurance policy, and has pretty much guaranteed himself a win. Those who took his bet watched 2 experienced (championship winning) coaches run some of their respective rosters through an organized, public practice - got excited about some numbers on the big screen above the court at the end of the game, and made an ill-advised wager.
My participation in the bet is based on, but not limited to, the following: 1. last year's record; 2. the prior year's record - 45 wins, and I believe that right now, this team is much better than that one; 3. our injury history last year and the dividends to be reaped (Tmo, EG, Brown); 4. our talent profile and that of the Spurs, the added talent on both teams, the projected falloff of some key talent on both teams from last year (Willis/Walt gone vs Robinson still there and now Willis, our reject is there); 5. Familiarity with Rudy T and the team having intensely followed them for almost 20 years; and finally 6. the belief, from my exchanges with Codell, that he would have betted against NJ last year and I would have betted for them; not to reach the final but to be top 4. The changes to that team is nothing compared to the changes to this team. Last night's game tells a story which is consistent with my thinking on the capabilities of this team. I trust that Codell also factored in the number of close games that last year's team lost. While the team is nowhere close to where it will be, the previews suggest a phethora of offensive and defensive weapons. Soon we will see that the Suns were happy to get Dan Langhi as the Spurs are happy for Willis. It is as plain as day to me.
Close games only count when you are playing horseshoes or hand grenades. Hey by the way, I mentioned before that my wife was pregnant. I just got back from the dr's office and we got a look at the first ultrasounds. Sadly, the kids going to look just like me!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
In defense to Rice and Rock (cant believe im actually defending them), they are basing it on more than that. In fact, all of us are kind of basing our theories on the same thing. We just see the subjective matter working out differently.
