I'd be shocked if Dwight doesn't get that extra 30 mil. Orlando will S&T, just like Cleveland did even though they wanted LeBron to go F*** himself. Toronto did with Bosh as well.
Key point here. If Orlando doesn't trade Howard before 3/15, then the only way Howard can get fully paid is staying with Orlando. So if Orlando plays hardball and doesn't trade him it doesn't make sense to S-n-T him because Howard doesn't get any more money and the other team has to have the free cap space before they can make the offer. If they can get Howard for "free" and Howard can't get any more additional money, then S-n-T makes no sense. For the other team - why pay for something when you can get it for free? For Orlando - why S-n-T with someone that doesn't have the cap space to let him walk? I think Orlando calls his bluff. The only team on his list that could sign him is NJ and the question is: Will Howard take less (less overall, less because of taxes, less because of cost of living) to join a losing team?
You can no longer S&T and get the full max. The most he can get in a S&T is the same as the max he'd get signing with a new team under the cap. Orlando can absolutely hold firm and play chicken with him over the money. A few things: You're assuming the teams Howard wants are going to be $18M under the cap (NJ should be...but if Deron opts out, his cap hold may be a problem, Dallas would likewise have to renounce all FAs, including Terry and Kidd - and they want to chase Deron as well) The new team may want to shed salary anyway via the S&T Seeing as the going price for most S&Ts has been a TE with a weak 1st and a weak 2nd, I don't think Orlando would be betting the farm. Still...I really hope we can win them over and rent Howard with a Godfather offer. NJ and Dallas aren't offering anything that great.
If Orlando is playing hardball they won't S-n-T with a team that cannot sign him out right. NJ is the only team that currently is able to do that and I don't see them trading away 18mm in good players when they can get him for free and not hurt their team like a S-n-T would. And I can't see ORL taking back any trash. Sure Dallas or LAL or CHI could trade players for nothing but cap space to a team under the cap but you'd better be sure that he WILL sign before you do that.
You got to read the article man. S&T's no longer work to the player's advantage wrt max contracts. This was theoretically part of the tightening the owners did to reduce the player's jumping to large cities argument. But each case is still different. As this article points out, the majority of the actual difference is due to the length of contract, as opposed to annual dollar figure. Though there is still a difference. It's hard to imagine a healthy Dwight Howard wouldn't get another max offer at 31. Yes, it's on the backside of the career at that point, but just barely. at 36, for example, Hakeem still put up nearly 19 points, 10 boards and 2.5 blocks a game. But it's still a risk to Dwight. He could get injured. He could star to suck earlier. Also, I'm not sure how the rules would work on that next contract. Would his max then be a function of how much he was getting paid the previous year? If that is the case, his next contract, even if it's 5 years at that point, would continue to pay him less annually. Of course, alternatively, a 5 year contract this offseason wouldn't end till he's 32 instead of 31. That's one extra year closer to being less and less effective. Maybe Dwight says I'd rather only have a 4 year deal anyway, because a 4 year deal + a 5 year deal, both at max levels, is better than a 5 year deal at max level followed by some lesser deal because my game has gone downhill to the point where I'm no longer being offered the max at 32? Finally, as someone else brought up, isn't there the 1 year contract option? That's the ultimate risk for him, sure, but couldn't that allow him to do a 1 year then follow it up with a 5 year deal? So he'd get 6 years at max dollars, then? These are the scenarios his agent should have presented him last offseason after the new CBA was formalized. My guess is the money is not going to be as big an issue as it should have been. the owners used their hammer, but it was a small one. For a max player like Dwight, who (1) already has banked a lot, (2) is likely to remain at an all-star level well into his early 30's, and (3) has had no injury history, a 4 year deal vs. a 5 year deal shouldn't be a huge deal. Add on potential increased endorsement potential from living in an LA/NYC vs. Orlando and the $ gap becomes even smaller. Conversely, taxes can be a big issue, and he would be hitting a much higher tax bracket. The reverse of course would be true for a Deron Williams, if he left NJ and went to a Dallas or Houston. Basically, I think Dwight isn't sweating it. He gets traded somewhere he likes and has the opportunity to guarantee an extra year at slightly higher per year salary, great. He plays it out in Orlando and gets to choose between Orlando and other locations he prefers, even at the cost of 1 less guaranteed year and slightly less annual pay, that's fine with him, too. The final scenario not being considered is the fact that he could re-up in Orlando and still have leverage. Meaning he can say I'll sing a max 5 year contract, but if we don't get meaningfully better, and don't compete for a championship this year, you can be damn sure I'm going to b**** and moan soon. Sure, you (team, owner) ultimately control my fate for the next x years, but you've got all your money tied to me, and if I'm not happy, the team is never going to perform where you want. Moreover, being that I'm still locked up for a bunch of years, you can actually get solid return for me now.
Wow that's really a stupid change to the CBA... Now teams have LESS chance to recoup anything via the S&T... and really that 30M difference figure is really misleading... apples to apple (years to years) with only a 5M diff is really not that substantial - when yer talkin about guys makin 80-100M bucks. I'd still go all in for D12, and let him know he can help build the team as he wants... resign CLee, bring in DWill, etc....
The real question is - Is Orlando stupid? I mean why arent they trying aggressively to trade for DWill or clear capspace to sign him in the offseason as a free agent? 5M diff isnt that much for a guy makin 80-100M - so keep him happy and get him some pieces he likes - DWill, Clee, etc.... I'm bettin thats part of the reason DM has kept all these expiring contracts - figurin someone is gonna need to clear space. Orlando should be giving away their draft picks to unload crappy contracts like Hedo's. Most of us on this board are dyin to be in the position they are in - and they dont seem to be tryin to make it work...
The owners put that in to try and keep their franchise players. If they want to bolt, it will cost them. You are right about the 4 vs 5 years but it is an extra guarantee year of money that you'd get if you got hurt.
First, I don't think they did their math right on the non-Orlando contract. That looks to me like 3% raises, not 4.5% raises. At 4.5%, the gap shrinks to $3.4m over the first 4 years. But, I think that comparing over a 4-year span is also misleading, for 2 reasons: (a) That $25m in the 5-year contract is guaranteed money. If Howard has an injury that precludes him from signing another big contract, that's $25m he wouldn't otherwise have. So, the value of locking in that 5th year now is more than the difference between that salary and what his max salary in that year would otherwise be, because the guarantee itself is worth something. (b) That 5th year alone is worth another +$2.3m over what he could earn that same year if he walked on Orlando this offseason. So, add that to the $3.4m delta for $5.7M over 5 years. But then consider the lifetime value since that 5th salary is the basis for Year 6 and so on. So, compare 2 scenarios: one where he signs a Bird contract this time and next time when he's 31, and another where he leaves as a free agent now but signs as a Bird FA next time. He gets the max in both scenarios. Over the next 10 years, thanks to that higher raise on the first contract, he earns $19.7m more over the lifespan of his career as a max free agent by signing as a Bird FA than if he were to walk this offseason. (And finally consider that his last big contract if he walks now would end 9 years from now when he's 35. How much will he be worth in Year 10? If he signs a Bird Contract now, and then a second one, he's guaranteed $34m that year.)
Doesn't have to be equal salary. If you're under the cap, the difference is made up in a TE. I think the only big trick for NJ is, Lopez is a RFA this summer...I don't think they can include him. Dallas is a lot closer than you may believe. If next year's cap is ~$60M, they're already holding ~$19M in space (assuming they renounce their FAs). If they amnesty Haywood (expected), they could have $27M to spend. If they trade away Marion for a smaller or expiring contract, they could have even more cash. They'd be in a vulnerable spot....but they need to rebuild around Dirk, and could be one of the few teams in position to double down on Howard and Williams...and both guys have expressed interest in Dallas. No, it's great. Closing the ridiculous loophole that FAs could circumvent the whole point of Bird Rights. Why in the world would NJ give them Williams when he's their best shot at luring over Dwight? As far as clearing cap space, they'd have to lose about $20M to have a crack at Deron...and he hasn't exactly been asking NJ to send him to Florida. I don't think he goes there as a FA even if they had the cash. And Orlando has nothing but nasty contracts. With the new tax looming, no one wants to touch the likes of Hedo at $11M next year or Nelson at $8M. The other team would have to still be far enough under the cap to do that without Bird Rights. He could face a pay cut doing that. I would think it would make more sense for him to take a 3 year deal and be able to reup while still in his prime, if not at his peak.
exactly. there are so many scenarios. which again would lead me to ask about the 1 year scenario? Perhaps that's not even possible under the new CBA? Maybe there's a provision that you have to sign a multi-year deal? Because, if you could sign a 1 year deal, Dwight could make the argument then that he'd follow it up with a 5 year deal, and another 5 year deal (which he'd hope someone would give him when he's 33), and then that'd be 11 years of guaranteed big money, though at less per year than if he stayed with Orlando. Granted, that's taking a lot of risk and what-if's, but if you think about it, he's currently playing on a contract with less than a year left, so he's willing to take that risk.
