The problem I have with trading for Odom

What am I remembering, then? I'm positive I heard somewhere (not on the BBS) that if Odom failed another test, he'd have to sit out a year (and apparantly I'm not alone if other members have been saying it).

Perhaps Clippers management made a statement that he would be suspended that long by the team, and not the league?

 

"Defense was an even bigger problem... And Odom doesn't really help us in that category either."

Odom does have career averages of 1.4 bpg and over 1 spg. He is at least an average defender. But the best thing that Odom would do for our team would be to theoretically allow Rudy to not play Mooch, Steve, and Cat at the same time. Odom has the ball handling and playmaking skills that can finally minimize Moochie's role with the team especially in the fourth quarter. Finally we can match up on the defensive end and get the key rebounds that come on the initial defensive stop. Instead of miraculously making a defensive stop with our smallish lineup only to give up an offensive rebound, which happened far too often last year. Odom averages 7.5 rpg in his career.

Odom is one of the top 10 talents in the league, pure and simple. I think I understand and evaluate talent as good, if not better than anyone on this board.

Odom won't turn 23 until November. He is a 3 year veteran in this league with career averages of 16.3 ppg, 7.5 rpg, 4.9 apg, 1.4 bpg, 1.04 spg, 44.5 FG%, and 30.9 FT%. I felt he was the best player coming out of the 1999 draft, and I still feel that he will be the best player in that class.

He was the number one player coming out of high school in 1997, ahead of Tracy McGrady. He would have been selected in the lottery in 1998 before he withdrew his name following a season in which he sat out the entire year. His first ever collegiate game he misses a triple double by 1 assistsagainst TCU, a top 25 team led by Lee Nailon. He hits the game winning bucket at the buzzer in that game. He hits the game winning shot at the buzzer in the Conference Tournament finals to send RI to the NCAA Tournament.

Odom does not need to shoot a lot to drastically impact the game. He doesn't even need to dominate the bad to have a great impact. He has such a tremendous feel for the game that is rivaled by only a handful of people in the NBA. Francis and Mobley sure the hell don't possess Odom innate understanding of basketball. Odom can score in the post. He has much more natural ability than Eddie Griffin in terms of offensive post play. Has a good jump hook right now.

Odom played virtually every game his first two season. Injury concerns weren't until this past year.

A lot of people on this board talk about how the Rockets need to take appropriate risks in order to achieve greatness. Those same people feel that Odom is too great of a risk due to his past transgressions. Yes, it's true, he smokes pot. Yes, he can be mercurial at times in neglecting his obligations, especially before he was drafted. But it's not like he beats his wife, drives extremely intoxicated, does cocaine, etc.

Odom is far from a finished product. He is less than a year older than Ming. Odom is more likely to be a true franchise player than Ming. I think trading out of the top slot and grabbing Odom is that appropriate risk in order to achieve greatness. The safe and conservative pick is to grab Ming.

By the way, there are no small forwards in the draft that come close to Odom in terms of talent, skill, and production.

 

A couple of observations...
First Tim Duncan plays POWER FORWARD, a position that is available lower in the draft (i know the guy is 7 foot but for the sake of arguement)

Second Vlade Divac isn't an especially fast, strong, agile, quick, etc. but he is smart and he is able to defend Shaq and score on him bout as well as anybody else.

Third Not that many teams in the league have a very strong offensive low post presence at all.

I am not a Ming supporter at all (I could not have been happier when I heard about Wang's defection) but he is supposedly a legit player. Yet our glaring needs, in my opinion, are defensive toughness and depth both of which can be addressed by the Odom trade. At WORST we get 3-4 role players in the draft and in trade (people that can make contributions on the offensive and DEFENSIVE ends). At best we get 1-2 really legit players and a couple role players (I could think of some trade ideas that will get us better players after we did the Odom/Kandi trade but for the sake of argument). Best case scenario if we draft Ming is that we get a 1 superstar and 1 legit player. WORST CASE SCENARIO is if we draft Ming and something happens where he can't play (from international relations my main concern) we are left comin out of this draft w/ only a #15 and we are back to square one basically. It doesn't take much to see that its better to get more bang for your buck.

 

Caron Butler fills the SF without the big budget- we need a rebound grabbing monster who does the dirty work and thinks about shooting only as a second option he'll play tough D and be intimidating around the rim - who's out there for us to trade or grab?

 

"Caron Butler fills the SF without the big budget- we need a rebound grabbing monster who does the dirty work and thinks about shooting only as a second option he'll play tough D and be intimidating around the rim - who's out there for us to trade or grab?"

First off, he's no rebound grabbing moster. Second, in terms of intimidating around the rim, he only averaged 0.4 bpg. He's not going to scare anyone around the rim.

 

Da Man, glad to see you are weighing in on this debate. We have disagreed about stuff in the past, but this Odom thing is something we appear to agree on.

Cat, I dont think Yao Ming fills our need for low post scoring or low post defense. I view the guy as a type of player that will be a face the basket type that cant consistently establish low post position against premier NBA competition inside. I dont really care that he averaged 70% from the field in China. Rashard Lewis averaged 72% from the field and basically 30 PPG against HS competition b/c he simply dominated everyone inside at that level. Yet, when he jumped to the NBA, he had to totally re-invent his game to the perimeter b/c he couldnt bang against the big bodies inside. Playing inside in the NBA on both ends of floor requires a lot of strength and a lot of toughness. If you take a look at Yao's upper body, its pretty obvious this is a huge question mark. This ability establish position isnt just something Im raising, its a pretty common question mark of the guy's ability.

I refuse to believe that getting a point forward like Odom wont mesh well Francis and Mobley. The Rockets have been looking at these point forward types for the last couple of yrs now and have even inquired about Odom in the past (remember blurb in Feigan's column?) In addition, they have played the three guard lineup in several junctures of games esp in key 4th qtr stretches. Getting Odom, only improves on that and allows Francis and Mobley more freedom to run wings and not have the burden of running the offense. The two lottery picks make this deal a no brainer imo.

I would also take issue with your point that you think a wingman like Kobe or McGrady would fit better than Odom or the assessment made by another poster that Butler is a better fit. Adding another player that takes a lot of shots and needs to score is going to clash big time with Francis and Mobley. They need someone that will complement their talents by allowing them to run the wings on the break and freeing them up by not forcing them to have to create offense for others.

I hate to say it, but it seems a lot of folks are having a hard time seeing around all this hype, and the Rockets are drooling too much over the marketing possibilities. In addition, posters are overplaying this mar1juana card and making it sound worse than it really is just to try and get their point across. I would love to be proven wrong here b/c the Rockets winning is first and foremost in my basketball interests, but I am just having a hard time seeing how not trading for Odom at this juncture is a good move for this team.

 

MManal, I was more open to the tone of your post than those of other proOdom() posts that I've read in the past, so I was compelled to respond... (civilly, vs. my responses to those other posts )

I can't contest the marketing possibilities. Houstonians don't go to games, and Ming might bring it out of them. Hell, if the Chinese population becomes enthused more so than they otherwise would, that's obviously more potential clients. Les is a business man of course, and I believe he's earned the right to secure his property.

I will certainly contest the point that "folks are having a hard time seeing around all this hype". If anything, it is sometimes difficult to remain calm when the mgr. of the Shanghai Sharks acts like a four year old. At that point, you have to remind yourself what the end point is.

Sure, Ming is light up top. But there's certainly no reason to assume that cannot change given the strength of his lower body. I would counter that "folks are having a hard time remembering this is a lottery pick". Yao Ming isn't some 30 year old player we're about to give 20 million dollars a year. He's a yoouuunng man. Everyone should remember that when you're drafting a kid, IN THE LOTTERY, you have to wait on that kid to develop.

Do you really think that this is true? Odom is a kid, and of course kids make mistakes. However, one must assume that Odom has been busted FOUR TIMES by the NBA (two times which were confidential and two times which led to 5 game suspensions, either he doesn't care about 5 game suspensions or he had reason to ignore/fail FOUR DRUG TESTS).

That's not very bright. The Rockets have a plethora of 'not very bright' players. Then again, maybe it would be beneficial for Mo and Odom to be stoned all of the time:

Mobley: Odom, I uhhh... I'm sorry that I like... uhhh.. have never passed to you.
Odom: HEEEEEEEEE. S'up? Ahhhhh nnaaaaaaaa it's good Mobes.

I've been more receptive to this idea (not proactive but more conciliatory) lately than I have been in the past... but I hope that it's not the goal but more of a "damn... I guess this is the only decent thing to make out of all of this" sort of move. I seriously doubt that there are two lottery picks + Odom on the table, however (were it true, the moves would be imo, more or less equal and arbitrary: Ming vs. Odom + Tsick + Hilario or something like that). If this Hilario kid is as massive and impressive as advertised I'd probably rank the trade heigher than I would selecting Ming.

But this is of course moot, because we'll draft Ming and Les will get more! butts in seats.

BTW, isn't it good to be a Rockets fan? Some weirdo trade (god if we trade for Dickerson, Carr and Price I'll shoot myself) or the ability to draft a 7'5" shooting guard. What an opportunity.

ps this time next year after Cuttino and Steve have blown out their acls we'll get another top 5 pick!! yee-hoo!

 

I don't no about no brainer. It seems to me that there are better options out there than Odom, #8 and #12 IMO. For example, #1 for #3 and Jaminson. With #3 we could draft Dunleavy or Butler. If Jaminson don't fit in we could always trade him later. What about #1 for McDyess and #5. My point is there are better options out there than Odom. Options that allow us to improve the frontcourt and get a good SF prospect at the same time. While not having to worry about Odoms injury and off court problems.

 

mar1juana users face a minimum 5-day suspensions on each offense after two, ad infinitum, if the Medical Director deems it necessary, he can suspend players to consecutive 5-days for the same offense. My guess, this is why the publicly apologize, because it makes the MD happy.

LSD, Cocaine, PCP, etc users face 2yrs on FIRST positive; 1 yr if they are rookies. Call it the Len Bias rule. You do not get a second chance, without first fulfilling your suspension.

However, you can voluntarily enter the program and go through Stage 1 and Stage 2, then you can't be suspended until you reach Stage 2. If you reach the Stage 2 of the Drugs of Abuse program for drugs other than mar1juana and steriods and land another positive, it is a 2yr suspension.

First yr players read this about LSD, Cocaine, Heroine, PCD, Speed, etc:

Veteran players read this about LSD, Cocaine, Heroine, PCD, Speed, etc:

 

TheCat:

One small complaint about your original post... you seem to be advocating having a low post presence for reasons of shot -efficiency. You're correct that very few perimeter players not named Michael Jordan or John Stockton shoot 50% from the field. But they don't need to. hit a mere 34% of your 3 pointers, and your efficiency is better than a center averging 50% from the field.

Now, I totally agree we need a low post presence. But I think it merely needs to be a tyhreadt... not necessarily dominant.

At first, I was strongly in the Ming camp. Now I'm less certain. I have no idea if he's really that good. I haven't seen nearly enough tape to pretend to know. But I'll trust the Rockets for now on that subject. I am worried about Houston's ability to resign him. If NY has cap space in 3 years, I'd wager he's gone. Almost no chance, with the Chinese authorities breathing down his neck to play there.

Right now, I'm split between trading down to the 3 spot to nab Caron Butler. He was really a dominator in college, in just his second year. And he has the type of game that would translate.

Da Man:

I think quoting stats like steals and blocks is a poor way to judge a perimeter defender. Sure, he's quick. Ok, he can jump well. But it doesn't tell you much. For example, Francis puts up good steal #'s, but is a horrible perimeter defender. He takes too many risks, which results in steals... but also means his man burns him too much.

 

All of this Odom trade talk. Is anyone at all concern about this pothead's drug problem?

With 2 potheads (Motay, Odom) and our sometimes wacky guards, this seems like a chemistry experiment to imitate the Trailblazers.

 

[q]"Da Man:

I think quoting stats like steals and blocks is a poor way to judge a perimeter defender. Sure, he's quick. Ok, he can jump well. But it doesn't tell you much. For example, Francis puts up good steal #'s, but is a horrible perimeter defender. He takes too many risks, which results in steals... but also means his man burns him too much."[/q]

I never said he was a good perimeter defender. In my post, I said he was at least an average defender, which he is. At the very least, Paul Pierce and Tracy McGrady won't completely light him up like they do to all of our current defenders. Right now, the Rockets really struggle to guard any of the top perimeter "big" guys. Odom would be a much more enticing option in guarding some of the top notch SF and big 2 guards.

The Cat: I think if you can add Odom to the Rocket equation, that team would not be another Minnesota reincarnated. The biggest problem the Wolves have in the playoffs is that they can't generated points when the game is slowed down in the half court set. They don't have the players who can create their own shot, whether it is in the post or on the perimeter. They need to play effectively within their system to generate offense. The Rockets won't have that problem with hypothetically, an Odom, Francis, and Mobley who can all create their own shots. Boston (and the Bucks last year)would be a great example to look at with teams that can make serious runs at the title without a legitimate offensive low post player. Hell, you can even look at the Bulls' dynasty. All you need are players that can create their own offense. Whether it is Pierce and Walker, Jordan and Pippen, Kobe and Shaq, Duncan and Duncan. With Wolves, they have no go-to guy who can be a dominate scorer.

I think people are severely underestimating Odom's ability to score in the low post. At Rhode Island, he got a good chunk of his points playing power forward in the low blocks. He's that talented. I honestly feel that Odom is more likely to develop into an offensive force in the low post than Griffin. They are both the same size with Odom being a little bit bigger. Odom has much better footwork and great touch around the basket. He's got a jump hook. He can hit the turnaround consistently.

[q] I don't no about no brainer. It seems to me that there are better options out there than Odom, #8 and #12 IMO. For example, #1 for #3 and Jaminson. With #3 we could draft Dunleavy or Butler. If Jaminson don't fit in we could always trade him later. What about #1 for McDyess and #5. My point is there are better options out there than Odom.[/q]

Out of all the options mentioned above, Odom is by far the best fit. Jamison is a scorer and a good offensive rebounder. But he needs shots to be effective. Problem is, he is not an efficient scorer. The McDyess trade scenario would not work as stated above. A maxed out player getting traded to a team that is at the cap limit. Coming off major surgery is a pretty big deal. Just look at Grant Hill. Plus I feel pretty comfortable with our power foward by commitee.

And for god's sakes, how is Caron Butler a better option than Odom. Odom is YOUNGER than Caron Butler. Odom in his only year of college basketball carried a poor RI team to the NCAA tournament. Odom averaged over 17.5 ppg, over 9 rpg, and 3.9 apg at the tender age of 19. Caron Butler was arrested not long ago for serious misdemeanors. People give Caron Butler the benefit of the doubt that he's turn his life around. Give Odom a chance to just mature a little. He hasn't committed any substantial moral transgression. He's just having to grow up in the spotlight of the NBA which can be quite arduous. But make no mistake about it, Odom is by far the superior player in comparison to Caron Butler. Does anyone honestly think Caron Butler is going to produce 17 ppg, 8 rpg, 5 apg, 1.5 bpg anytime in the foreseeable future. Not likely with the type of game and talent he possesses. Odom provides superior skill, talent, and most importantly production.

All of my ranting about Odom doesn't mean that I'm not intrigued by Ming. As a talent evaluator, I have seen Odom play for 4 years now. I know he is very good right now, and can be potentially great in the near future. With Ming and the little footage I have seen of him in less than ideal conditions, there is obvious talent. But I hate making assessments of potential draftees without having at least seen them play live. Even the footage of Ming playing in the CBA is misleading. I know how to make objective evaluations of prospects that playing against college players, NBA players, and even to a lesser extent high school players. But with the CBA, players like Wang Zhu Zhu average 28 ppg, 11 rpg. How can I make a fair projection of a players ability against questionable talent level? But there is little doubt that Ming is a much more skilled player than Wang and a far greater athlete. But, I can only judge with what I've seen. I will tell you this, if Ming was not in the draft, and Odom came out in this years' draft as a 5th year senior, Odom is the BEST player available.

 

12-30-1999 09:12 AM

A quote from today's Houston Chronicle.

Here's an old DaDakota post back in 1999 with Mark Jackson expressing the exact same sentiments that I've had about Odom since his first college game.

""I don't know what piece they are missing, but they're missing one right now, and it's probably just some experience," Indiana's Mark Jackson said of the Clippers. "But when you put a guy like Lamar Odom out there, you're going to have a chance, because he's a special basketball player.

"He cares about winning, and that's rare with a lot of these young guys these days. He has a tremendous future ahead, and I would love to have a piece of stock in him."

I still think it is better to have a GREAT big man, and an average PG, then a GREAT PG and average big man.

I love Steve Francis, but I happen to believe that SUPERSTAR big men are more important then SUPERSTAR little men.

DaDakota

http://www.chron.com/content/story....s/bk/bkn/416756"

 

Billups and Brandon are nowhere near Steve/Cat/Odom in terms of creating. You could probably even throw Mooch into that creating pool, or Mo/KT.

One other thing to note on defense-Odom basically makes the need to go to the small lineup obsolete. That means, we keep the ball handling, but don't go small.

Compare, Moochie-Francis-Mobley vs. Francis-Mobley-Odom

Francis is a better defender than Moochie.
Mobley is a better SG defender than Francis.
Odom is a better SF defender than Mobley.

You're adding 9 inches, and not really losing any handles or quickness.

 

"I hope so, but Garnett is right with Odom in terms of creating his own shot, whether it be off the dribble from the perimeter or facing up in the 12 foot range."

I would probably have to disagree about that. Even though KG scores over 20 a game. He can't consistently put up those numbers creating outside of the system. His offensive game right now consists of a jumper, power dribble left/right and a step back J, a turnaround, and a power dribble baseline finish. I think Odom is much more adept at actually breaking someone down off the dribble and creating a shot or finishing in the lane. Rashard did play a lot in the post in high school, but those were mostly dunks against much shorter players. Odom has proved he can score in the post at the NCAA level with no problem. He just hasn't had as many looks since he's played for the Clippers. But to give you an example of Odom's prowess. One of his first 10 games in the league, Odom gets isolated on KG on the wing. He takes him across the lane to deliver a Magic-esque running baby hook the win the game at the buzzer. The low post game of Odom is there to develop sooner rather than later(ie. EG).

Also, right now, Odom could score 20 a game easily. But he's just too unselfish in the best of ways averaging 4.9 apg for his career on some truly pathetic Clipper teams.

I'm a big fan of Terrell Brandon's middle distance game. But when his jumper is not falling as it usually does in the playoffs, he's not likely to blow by anyone at this stage of his career. Billups....is not Francis or Mobley. There is a reason he is considered a bust as the number 3 overall pick.

Even though I compared the Rockets possible trio with the Bucks big 3. I would favor the Rockets combo down the road simply because they don't have to have a heavy reliance on the outside shot. Big Dog's game is predicated on his deadly middle distance game. He might slash to the hole and score some. But him and Sammy rely very heavily on their outside J, with Ray Allen being the only one who can create any shot he wants. Sam Cassell by the way uses his outside J to set up his stutter step dribble penetration move. When his J is not working, he struggles to get into the lane.

As nice as it would be to have a legitimate force in the low post on both sides of the ball, it is not necessary to win championships. Look at the Detroit Pistons. Stellar perimeter play with some presence in the post on both sides of the ball with Rodman, Salley, and Lambier(his hard nose defense). They had Dumars and Isiah who could create their own offense when the structure broke down.


I think our defense improves immensely with Odom in the lineup. Just as Nikestrad mentioned, the best thing about acquiring a point forward is that Rudy should be comfortable not play Mooch in the 4th quarter finally because Odom can play the point guard role on offense. We talking a 6'10", long armed small forward who can play at least adequate defense both on the perimeter and in the low blocks. One of the top shot blocking SF in the league. He's a much better weak side shot block than even Robert Horry in his glory days. Allow an Odom/Griffin shot blocking tandem take place with at least a decent defensive presence by the 5, and you have an infinitely better defensive team.

 

I am all for Odom, but not for the #1 pick (even with the #8 and #12 thrown in). Ming has too much upside to pass him up without a ridiculas offer (what GS offered for the #1--Webber about a decade ago). KT, #15, something else--I would go for that, but I don't think the Clips would. If you put in EG in there instead of KT--that might get interesting for both teams.

Da Man, Odom is a fine talent but I don't think for a second if the teams redrafted his year he would move up. The Rockets would not have rather had Odom over Francis, the Clips would rather keep Brand over Odom (they are now actually in this exact position and their motivations seem obvious--doesn't this tell you something about who they think is the better player in the long run), and the Hornets would not rather have Odom than Davis. Further, I am not sure Odom wouldn't be passed by a couple of guys picked later than him that year (e.g., Marion, Miller). He may have more talent than most of these guys, but there are intangibles working against him (his games hasn't showed steady progression, his team seems to better with Brand as the focus more than him, his suspensions). If all the teams redraft he either stands where he is or slips IMO.

Of course I think these intangibles working against Odom could help someone like the Rockets acquire him for less than his talent would normally demand on the trade block and in the end these intangibles might prove no big deal. I just don't know if we can entice the Clips to send Odom to us without the #1, Francis or Mobley involved--none of which I would be willing to do unless we decide to get totally radical and trade both Francis and Mobley as part of building a new team around Ming, Odom and JW or something like that.