Yeah, I get the math. But what you saying is nothing will change since the math is the same. I anticipate behavioral change regardless, to test it, especially from the 85% and up shooters. All I’m doing his predicting how it might be tested. I also think league-wide FT% will drop, not to say I don’t like the rule, just sayin first FT is harder than the second and third (on average).
TS% is calculated from boxscore numbers. They will have to change how they record FTs or how they calculate TS% from the FT numbers. Otherwise the problem mentioned by DoD is still there. And the fact that the last two minutes of games is different from the rest of the game doesn't help. Changing how they record the boxscore numbers is probably the easiest way. (One 2-shot foul is recorded as 2 FTs, and one 3-shot foul is recorded as 3 FTs, etc.) But it will not reflect the true FT% of a player, although the statistical approximation over a large sample size might be good enough. The discrepancy between the accuracies of the first FT and the second and third may be more problematic. We may see a general lower FT% because of that.
The boxscore will change to account for it - the NBA is not just going to stop tracking how many points people are getting from free throws. Fortunately, we have computers to help us and they'll be able to do all the calculations necessary. I just think of all of the things to be thinking about with this change, this is the very bottom of the totem poll.
