1. Welcome! Please take a few seconds to create your free account to post threads, make some friends, remove a few ads while surfing and much more. ClutchFans has been bringing fans together to talk Houston Sports since 1996. Join us!

The official KPJ as building block thread

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by sydmill, Mar 2, 2022.

?

KPJ part of your Rockets foundation?

  1. Yes

    36.4%
  2. No

    63.6%
  1. D-rock

    D-rock Member

    Joined:
    Jun 29, 2006
    Messages:
    40,743
    Likes Received:
    64,228
  2. Houston77

    Houston77 COOKIES AND CAKE, MY TEAM BAKED!
    Supporting Member

    Joined:
    Aug 31, 2018
    Messages:
    5,187
    Likes Received:
    13,878
    I’ll just leave this here.
     
  3. Dobbizzle

    Dobbizzle Member

    Joined:
    Feb 1, 2021
    Messages:
    3,652
    Likes Received:
    6,013
    That is some absolutely nonsense logic, you do realise that, right? Go look at how many teams DID win rings with pure pg's as their starter, then try and make this argument again...
     
    cheke64 likes this.
  4. saleem

    saleem Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 2001
    Messages:
    29,311
    Likes Received:
    13,449
    Skill wise yes, mentally uncertain. I hope he will have a great off season. He should work on defense and show a little more patience under the guidance of coach Lucas.
     
  5. Houston77

    Houston77 COOKIES AND CAKE, MY TEAM BAKED!
    Supporting Member

    Joined:
    Aug 31, 2018
    Messages:
    5,187
    Likes Received:
    13,878
    What’s nonsense logic is arguing, “You have to have a true PG because some teams have won with a true PG in the past!”
     
    ApacheWarrior and D-rock like this.
  6. Dobbizzle

    Dobbizzle Member

    Joined:
    Feb 1, 2021
    Messages:
    3,652
    Likes Received:
    6,013
    Nope, that's not how it works. Historically, teams with pure PG's have won loads more rings than teams that haven't. It's not even remotely close, like, at all. And you think you're right somehow because of 3 players? Seems legit....
     
  7. DaDakota

    DaDakota If you want to know, just ask!

    Joined:
    Mar 14, 1999
    Messages:
    124,081
    Likes Received:
    32,972
    What? That is just not true at all.......many of the best PURE PGs have failed to win a ring.

    1. CP3
    2. Nash
    3. Stockton

    As examples....

    Tons of championships are won without a PURE PG - every Lebron team had him as the point forward, the old Celtics had 2 SGs, Magic wasn't a pure PG, the Rockets didn't have a pure PG when they won.....

    Pure PGs are not necessary to win anything.

    DD
     
    ApacheWarrior likes this.
  8. Dobbizzle

    Dobbizzle Member

    Joined:
    Feb 1, 2021
    Messages:
    3,652
    Likes Received:
    6,013
    In what universe is Magic not a pure point guard? Ridiculous. And you're kinda missing the entire point of the back and forth, I was simply saying that it's completely illogical to say "Paul, Nash and Stockton never won a ring so pure point guards aren't even that good" when you compare to the literally decades of winners with pure point guards winning rings. Tbh though, after the "MTagic is not a pure point guard" nonsense, I'm surprised I even responded to this. The guy literally averaged 11 assists for his career and holds a lot of the assists records. You went a bit off the reservation with that one, just because a man is tall, doesn't negate the way he actually played.
     
    13 in 33 likes this.
  9. ApacheWarrior

    ApacheWarrior Member

    Joined:
    Aug 3, 2017
    Messages:
    9,204
    Likes Received:
    12,336
    Correct DD....and since BoDrizzle has me on ignore i'll post this here.

    The game has changed since 14/15 when the Warriors proved that a jump shooting
    team can win it all. Since then I would say only Lowry might be considered a "True"
    point guard, and that's debatable.

    14/15: Warriors
    15/16: Cavs *(LeBron)
    16/17: Warriors
    17/18: Warriors
    18/19: Raptors (Lowry)?
    19/20: Lakers (LeBron ?Rondo?)
    20/21: Bucks Jrue Holiday?
    21/22: Memphis Ja Morant (just kidding but my pick)

    So is Steph Curry a "True Point Guard"? averages 6.5 assists per game over his career
    Lowry?

    I believe the league has changed and looking at historical numbers beyond 14/15
    is useless in this discussion unless we change the current rules.

    **Interesting side note: Kyrie Irving said publicly that Harden was the point guard
    of the Nets after a few games with Harden. True Point Guards don't defer their role.
     
    #809 ApacheWarrior, Apr 24, 2022
    Last edited: Apr 24, 2022
    DaDakota likes this.
  10. D-rock

    D-rock Member

    Joined:
    Jun 29, 2006
    Messages:
    40,743
    Likes Received:
    64,228
  11. xtruroyaltyx

    xtruroyaltyx Member

    Joined:
    Jul 1, 2011
    Messages:
    10,778
    Likes Received:
    12,989

    I think "true PG" is a bit of a misnomer...

    Pass first PG's who don't look to score much don't really exist...
    The best PG's in the league since forever have usually been able to score and get their own shots.

    Trying to label these guys 1-5 PG, SG,ect...That's over with...

    IMO, The real question is: "Can KPJ be the primary ball handler or can Green and KPJ split primary initiator duties"

    If we look at the Warriors...They had Steph and Draymond...On the bench for the first one they had Livingston and Barbosa as well...

    Cavs had Lebron and Kyrie

    Warriors Steph and Draymond and Livingston
    Ditto

    Raptors Lowry, KL also Van Fleet

    Lakers...Lebron and Rondo

    Bucks Drue and Giannis


    These guys are usually the ones initiating the offense in the half court....It's not always the guy labeled the PG...

    I don't care what KPJ is called tbh....But if they are going to put the ball in his hands to start 50% or more of our possessions then he's got to be elite at it if we want to win a ring. Not really concerned about assists numbers as much if he is splitting the duty with Green...

    This season for as much as he had the ball he should've been around 8.5 per game, or he needed to score the ball better...

    Look at the guys who you would consider the top primary ball handlers/initiators for the top teams...And then look at their PER


    Some people feel like KPJ played pretty well all year and showed he could be the primary ball handler...And then we know that Jalen struggled mightily for much of the season...Some even calling him the worst player in basketball for a stretch

    Well KPJ's Per was only 1 point higher than the guy who some called the worst player in the NBA for a stretch...

    This is the company that KPJ was in last year:

    140
    Chimezie MetuSAC
    139
    Terance MannLAC
    138
    Will BartonDEN
    137
    Pat ConnaughtonMIL
    136
    Jordan McLaughlinMIN
    135
    Nicolas BatumLAC
    134
    Cole AnthonyORL
    133
    Kevin Porter Jr.HOU
    132
    P.J. WashingtonCHA
    131
    Marcus SmartBOS
    130
    Seth CurryBKN/PHI
    129
    Alec BurksNY
    128
    RJ BarrettNY
    127
    Delon WrightATL
    126
    Cameron PaynePHX
    125
    Eric PaschallUTAH


    I don't want any of those guys being my primary ball handler.


    I would say if he's going to be a championship caliber lead ball handler he needs to AT LEAST be up here with these guys:

    33
    LaMelo BallCHA
    32
    Jrue HolidayMIL
    31
    Zach LaVineCHI
    30
    Pascal SiakamTOR
    29
    Mitchell RobinsonNY
    28
    Jakob PoeltlSA
    27
    Chris PaulPHX
    26
    James HardenBKN/PHI
    25
    Andre DrummondBKN/PHI
    24
    Jonas ValanciunasNO
    23
    Devin BookerPHX
    22
    Clint CapelaATL
    21
    Stephen CurryGS
    20
    Donovan MitchellUTAH
    19
    Daniel GaffordWSH
    18
    Jayson TatumBOS
     
  12. D-rock

    D-rock Member

    Joined:
    Jun 29, 2006
    Messages:
    40,743
    Likes Received:
    64,228
    PER is not a great metric to predict productivity.

    It is one of the very first of the advanced stats and also one of the most flawed.

    Because productivity is never defined by Hollinger.

    Instead productivity is based on our personal definitions instead of a stated definition by the scientist conducting the research.

    https://towardsdatascience.com/problems-with-per-in-the-nba-fa0e611543e2

     
  13. xtruroyaltyx

    xtruroyaltyx Member

    Joined:
    Jul 1, 2011
    Messages:
    10,778
    Likes Received:
    12,989
    It's actually the opposite.

    Per is what it is, which is simply a summary of statistical accomplishments. As long as you understand that, its a good stat.


    https://towardsdatascience.com/problems-with-per-in-the-nba-fa0e611543e2


    Like I said, I don't see anyone who has a per as low as kpj having the ball 50% or more of the time being a recipe for a championship. I don't see anyone with a per that low being a player who id want setting up my offense a majority of the time.
     
    #813 xtruroyaltyx, Apr 30, 2022
    Last edited: Apr 30, 2022
  14. ApacheWarrior

    ApacheWarrior Member

    Joined:
    Aug 3, 2017
    Messages:
    9,204
    Likes Received:
    12,336
    per?...PER?....we talking PER here? To steal a line from Allen Iverson

    I'm thinking more in line with Ast%. Steve Nash got as high as 53.1 Ast%,
    Stockton 58.7% Ast%, Magic Johnson 49.3% Ast%.

    They were eat a little so they could feed their brothers more. Now it's feed your
    fellow brother......by committee.

    And it's more than that, like layers of an onion. One has to consider defense.
    It's like pure quarterback like Joe Montana or Tom Brady, but asking them to
    play defense as well. Yes point guards of the past would defend point guards
    of the past by fighting through screens or going over/under them.....now it's
    switch everything.

    The switch everything defensively was starting around 14/15......the Warriors
    were the first team I saw use it consistently durinv the season. I was laughing
    at them, experts were criticizing them, my thought process was don't show your
    playoff hand too early.....wait until the playoffs.

    Well it's a copy cat league and from that now teams are bringing in the personnel
    to run a switch everything defense. It's now tougher for the pure point guards to
    get all the way to the rim. Add the fact that teams are turning switch everything
    defense to zone mixed in, and you see or will see teams move on from the smaller
    player that mainly guards point guard, now to taller guards that can do a better
    job guarding 1-4.

    CP3 could hold, cling, grab, pinch, bite, Centers on a switch, but when he
    joined the Rockets, the league conveniently took that away. Now that
    he is not a Rocket they allow him to get away with it more. But, let's
    not get off topic.....the league will be going more with players 6'4 to
    6'9" players that can guard everything in between. The 7 footers like
    Mark Williams will have a place since they can both protect the rim
    and pop out to contest 3-point attempts. Go man-to-man, switch
    everything, jump into a zone, and toggle between the 3 at a
    moments notice to confuse the defense.

    So in summary, the book ends of small-ish players will be taken out, unless
    they can shoot like Steph Curry of Trae Young, and the Big Centers will be
    taken out for more mobile versatile individuals who can contribute
    offensively and defensively in the entire half court. Keeping up the
    PACE by running the full court....faster. So the book ends removed
    and the books hold themselves up.
    _______________________
    I'm looking at Ast% mostly in the 30's as a norm (reg season).
    Here are some from this year per basketball-reference.com

    DeJounte Murray 38.8% (Ast%)
    LaMelo 34.1% (Adt%)
    Haliburton 33.5% (Ast%)
    Morant 33.0%
    Giddy 32.5%
    Lowry 32.1%
    Lillard 32.1%
    DeAngelo Russell 32.0%
    Westbrook 31.3%
    Beal 30.9% (I see Beal as what the league would like to turn to running point)
    Curry 28.6%
    Jrue Holiday 28.6%
    Porter jr 30.2%

    Summary: defenses are dictating the role of the point of attack and moving
    it from a smaller frame that could get all the way to the rack by want of PnR;
    To a need for a bigger frame player who will absorb contact that can get
    better releases or shots at the rim over or in zone defenses........while being
    able to defend 1-4 consistently and not be so much of a liability.

    Too many 3-point shooters nowadays calls for defenders to cover way
    too much ground. In the past you had maybe two good 3-point shooters
    on the court at one time.....now all 5 offensive players are being asked
    to shoot 3's.....a point guard needs to defend the rim and be
    big enough
    to contest a 6'10" 3-pt shooter. They. better score like Curry or Trae if they
    can't.

    *Side Note: Iverson greatest Ast% was 37.6% and was often listed as SG.
    Curry greatest was 39.9% (Ast%).....one season hit in the 40's but only
    played 5 games that season. So Porter is right there in striking distance....just
    fine tune it a little & add a Jabari-Chet-Banchero-Ivey-Keegan.....get out
    of "Tank" mode.

    Everything gonna be all right.
     
    #814 ApacheWarrior, Apr 30, 2022
    Last edited: Apr 30, 2022
    Plowman and D-rock like this.
  15. D-rock

    D-rock Member

    Joined:
    Jun 29, 2006
    Messages:
    40,743
    Likes Received:
    64,228
    Disagree and many NBA data analysts feel same.

    PER claims to be a holistic measure of a player’s performance, meaning that it takes into account the offensive and defensive performance of the player. However, as we all know it’s more of an offensive statistic because it only takes into account steals, blocks and defensive rebounds.

    Further, there is no adjustment for the quality of teammates and opponents. Players on good teams will naturally record much better stats. Naturally, this will lead to them being rated as much more efficient. Similarly, playing against quality opponents will lead to worse stats. While the strength of opponents problem should generally even out over the course of the season, both these factors are worth considering and controlling for.

     
  16. Hemingway

    Hemingway Member

    Joined:
    Oct 15, 2016
    Messages:
    6,101
    Likes Received:
    8,087
    This was a fantastic take. Thanks for the research and common sense.
     
    ApacheWarrior likes this.
  17. D-rock

    D-rock Member

    Joined:
    Jun 29, 2006
    Messages:
    40,743
    Likes Received:
    64,228
    But his PER ...

     
  18. D-rock

    D-rock Member

    Joined:
    Jun 29, 2006
    Messages:
    40,743
    Likes Received:
    64,228
  19. RudyTBag

    RudyTBag Contributing Member
    Supporting Member

    Joined:
    Jan 6, 2006
    Messages:
    28,088
    Likes Received:
    21,298
    Don't get caught up in nomenclature. CP3 can drop 45 on you too... So could Nash, so could Magic.

    Putting them in a box because they were great leaders that made their teammates better is douchey.
     
  20. HorryForThree

    HorryForThree Member

    Joined:
    Jan 5, 2001
    Messages:
    2,949
    Likes Received:
    3,882
    The "true pg" discussion misses the point. The question is not whether KPJ has to conform to the traditional pg model, but whether he can get other players involved in the offense effectively, find open men, and make quality passes. What we've seen is that he's the most effective when his shot is going in and he's playing score-first, that's a fact. Which isn't a problem, as other pg-types (say, a Luka) do the same thing. The difference, however, is that KPJ offensively is far less consistent (too many nights where he's missing near layups along with everything else), struggles with a lot of the basic passes any ball-dominant player needs to be able to make (entry passes into the post, slip passes on a screen and roll, alley oops, etc.), and generally doesn't do a great job "finding" guys when they're open.

    Now, when he's really on, he'll make an occasional great pass, and I mean highlight level pass, but Sengun as a facilitator does a better job of it than KPJ, which is why everyone is saying that KPJ's shortcomings as a PG aren't a problem because Sengun will just supplement that. I'm not so convinced, just because the modern NBA is so PnR heavy, and when your lead PnR guy can't hit people on the roll consistently or make the right read, you're going to stall on offense a lot, which is what we do, and KPJ has been a big part of that.

    The other challenge with KPJ is a defensive one, in that 1) he doesn't always seem interested in playing it, and 2) he doesn't match up well against small PGs who crushed us last year when he was on them (like Campazzo, etc.).

    At this point we're far too invested in the "KPJ as PG" experiment to abandon it, and short of drafting Ivey because he's the best-available, I don't see that changing this season unless we see no improvement from last season at the end of the season. That said, I think many fans are overcompensating in their KPJ support, maybe because he had a seemingly good stretch to end the season, or maybe because he feels like a underdog or something, who knows. But objectively speaking, the jury is still out on whether he should play PG or whether he's a better fit at SF, or even as a sixth man.
     
    Little Bit likes this.

Share This Page

  • About ClutchFans

    Since 1996, ClutchFans has been loud and proud covering the Houston Rockets, helping set an industry standard for team fan sites. The forums have been a home for Houston sports fans as well as basketball fanatics around the globe.

  • Support ClutchFans!

    If you find that ClutchFans is a valuable resource for you, please consider becoming a Supporting Member. Supporting Members can upload photos and attachments directly to their posts, customize their user title and more. Gold Supporters see zero ads!


    Upgrade Now