I can't believe we're getting a shitty economy and facism at the same time. What a shitty time sincerely
@Nook this has never happened before in history where bonds are up but dollar is down. Global investors are taking their money and leaving America all together. They don't trust the long term health of America Its sincerely sad what the MAGA cult has done to America @El_Conquistador @Space Ghost
3 months into Trump 2.0, the Econ data points to these seeming economic disconnects: stagflation Stagnant GDP growth, with inflation Higher bond yields, with a cheaper US dollar The cost of imports to the US is a lot more expensive
The talking heads on the investment news channels are saying that we are likely in a recession now. The talking heads are saying that tariffs best case will be a one time bump in inflation. The size of the bump is up for debate. The talking heads are saying that the market has not fully baked in permanent tariffs. The market thinks Trump will blink and do a full retreat, maybe this fall. This is wild speculation on their part, but is what they are saying. A Japanese trade delegation went to DC recently. Their US counterparts asked them what they would offer. The Japanese ask what the US wanted .. but .. got .. no ... reply. The US has no plans. This is just Trump winging it. 60% of what is on Walmart shelves is made in China. Walmart may not be able to sell what was a $10 made in China "toaster" for $25, but what are their choices. A $20 made in Vietnam toaster? A $50 Cuisinart toaster? A $20 made in Mexico but really in China toaster? Or in two years the $25 Made in America toaster? None of these are good options for the American consumer. If the American consumer decides to dramatically cut back on spending, the **** will get real ... really quick. The America consumer may have no choice, since the tariffs are projected to cost each household $3700+.
This quarter might have strong numbers due to the tariff countdown spending spree. We might've shaved off some big basis points in gdp if doge really cut 1T but the most generous of numbers float around 150B. Loss in town and exports will hurt and ofc the lost wealth effects from the top 10% feeling the hurt the most in their portfolios To be frank, these analysts are giving cover for biz to officially lay people off rather than pulling andy dufrense from Shawshank and laying off a dirt full every now and then. Verizon did that and fessed up on their quarterly report
Doge has cut less than 50 billion while their IRS cuts will lead to 500 billion in less revenue. Art of the deal baby. Cut 50 billion in spending while losing 500 billion in revenue. Those talking heads on CNBC did nothing but kiss Trumps ass all election season. They gas light the entire population how Trump would make the economy boom and Kamala was a socialist. They deserve to be ashamed on a daily basis
I said "most generous" because, even then, the impact to the economy wouldn't be as egregious as opposed to overspending 2T in a low interest rate environment....
All the Trump supporters now condemning his tariff war they include, but not limited to, Podcasting titan Joe Rogan and Barstool Sports founder Dave Portnoy are among the high-profile supporters of President Trump who are trashing his sweeping tariffs — as the fallout from the White House’s new levies sends their stock portfolios down “the s—-er.” Hedge fund manager Bill Ackman, conservative commentator Ben Shapiro and even Elon Musk piled on ahead of the reciprocal tariffs taking effect
the latest eg of the habitual liar cutting n pasting disjointed false narratives, and pretending that its his own opinion
Trump’s pitch on tariffs was built on a foundation of strange lies The problem is not just that the president lied while touting his tariffs. The problem is made worse by the apparent fact that he felt like he had to lie. Trump said the United States “took in hundreds of billions of dollars” from China thanks to tariffs he imposed during his first term. That wasn’t true. Trump similarly said tariffs had never before been collected on Chinese goods before he took office. That wasn’t true. Trump said Canada “imposes a 250-300% tariff on many of our dairy products.” That wasn’t true. Trump said the Great Depression happened because U.S. officials moved away from tariffs. That was hilarious, but it wasn’t true. Trump said U.S. inflation rates during the Biden administration were “the highest” in “the history of our country.” That wasn’t true. Trump said Joe Biden had “the worst approval ratings in the history of our country.” That wasn’t true. Trump said the United States was “the wealthiest it has ever been” between 1789 and 1913. That wasn’t true. Trump said Democrats want to cut benefits for Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid beneficiaries. That’s so bonkers I don’t even know where to start. Not only is he imposing higher tariffs than almost anyone expected, but he’s justifying them with completely false claims about other countries’ tariffs. I don’t know where his numbers are coming from, but they have nothing to do with reality. This is, after all, what he does, and what he’s always done. Those who look to this president for honesty and facts clearly haven’t been paying close enough attention. Trump has a truth allergy. Much of the public knew this long before his event in the Rose Garden began. Rather, the broader significance is rooted in the fact that the president — reading from prepared text — apparently felt as if he had to lie. What he appears to have determined was that the truth wasn’t good enough, and it would be better for him to present his agenda with, in Krugman’s words, “completely false claims” that “have nothing to do with reality.” https://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow...ech-tariffs-fact-check-white-house-rcna199456 I think that article pretty much sums up almost everything Trump does. He just makes up false claims, twists the outcome with more lies, and then starts blaming others when things go wrong. He is just a pathological liar. That is a fact. Why do people trust and believe that guy? That's the strangest part of all.
You must be having a great life with me living rent free in your head. Have your bets paid off your Prius yet? Teslas are pretty cheap if you have an itch to upgrade.
This isn't surprising in the least. He says so many falsehoods that they don't even register anymore. And when they do, hell will literally freeze over before he'll admit to it. But it's also clear the majority of his supporters don't care that he dissembles or even steps on the nation's laws. I think they're fine with it and may even be happy with it because in the end, they believe he's on their side, working for their agenda. They think he's a great businessman and he's allowed to break a few eggs (or send the rotten ones away) in order to make the nation's omelette. The only thing I can see that will make them finally turn away is for their bottom line to be massively affected. Then, a lot of them will say, "I didn't realize it would be so bad" etc.
It is very important to understand that Trump is not trying to tell the truth. Trump is selling, which he is world class at. Trump does not understand tariffs. He understands power. The US is a great power, which Trump wants to leverage in favorable deals. Trump, the very stable genius, has underestimated other countries. China will not be bullied by Trump and will not negotiate with Trump. Japan and Canada, both economic allies until The Trump Tariff Trade Wars, have grown a spine and not backed down. This is not going as Trump planned, which appears to have others grovel before his throne and obsequiously acquiesce. Trump also underestimated the investment markets. In particular, the bond market is not buying what Trump is selling. Trump is now attacking the Fed chair, since the Fed chair won't bail Trump out of the consequence of his tariffs. I can't think of anything worse than letting Trump replace the Fed chair with a yes man. Trump controlling Fed monetary policy would become another example of Trump's ego writing checks that the US can not cash. I can just see Trump threatening the market with rate increases/decreases to get his way. Of course if getting his way turns out to be a very bad thing, Trump will find a scape goat ... introducing The Trump Tariff Trade Wars Czar, JD Vance.
The lack of global confidence isn't as simple as Trump tariffs bad. There is no question that the USA elected an economic idiot from the global perspective. However, the lack of confidence if from the fact that Trump was transparent and the American people still elected him - and more importantly, no one has been able to stop him - the checks and balances have not stopped him and the level of support shows that it is an institutional issue in the USA. Last, the fear is that Trump has drafted a blueprint on how to exploit the US for future Presidents. While I find the idea that the USA is suddenly going to be second in the world to be largely alarmist, not investing in the USA long term is likely smart because a lot of the long-term implications will not be seen or known for years. Trump has and is teaching a Master Class on how to destroy the world's largest superpower in mere months.
We can't even get to the debates over which tariffs could be good and what tradeoffs should be made when there's no coherent plan to the starts/stops/pauses/exceptions. Only the MAGA hats are somehow connecting these dots to everything good that happens and ignore everything bad that happens. I'm willing to engage in tariff talk. I'm willing to defend some tariffs. But there's no cohetent plan, no coherent message, and nothing to defend because it'll flip the next moment. Can I just have my retirement money back.
I think midterms may finally be enough to force Congress to act. Courts may have acted by then to cut off the illegal tariffs. But yes, our weaknesses have been exposed.
If democracy survives this onslaught in 4 years Congress and the next president will have their work cut out for them. We'll need multiple legislative bills and constitutional amendments to make sure this never occurs again. I'm not optimistic by any means...
To do that you need sane Republicans and sane Democrats understanding the need to compromise and do things inconsistent with your tribe's messaging. But as we're seeing in this forum, the people themselves are self selecting and not directly talking to the other side. All it is about owning the other on dumb points and not admitting they're wrong. As someone who likes the ideal of free speech, this is the exact opposite of what an informed and responsible society should be, but people are afraid and feel powerless. And here we are. It's a mentally exhausting esports game where people waste time and lash out for whatever reasons. I think our decline will be steady just like a prolonged housing slump if our parties continue to use populism as gasoline rather than guiding light to what is happening deep inside our counties. We talk about how countries like China are all focused on the high tech areas and coral people away from the poorer parts, where the propagandists don't want you to see or report back. Well we also know our dead zones and rarely mention them even if it's a 20 min drive away. Congress won't solve that to anyone's liking until the public starts to spend the time and effort to reach out to those places.
