The Next Moreyball Innovation That Should Happen Now

While we're talking about unconventional strategies, here's one that I think needs to be implemented too. When there's less than 24 seconds left in the quarter and the opponent is obviously just dribbling out the clock to be able to take the final shot, the Rockets should aggressively attack the ball. If you can force a turnover in that time you get an extra possession, if you don't force the turnover because they pass the ball around and got a shot up, then you get another possession with enough time left to take a good shot because the opponents shot too EARLY in the shot clock.

So you're expected point differential at that instant goes from -1.0 ish (if using a 50 percent average made on a two or 33% on a three) to a net of 0 if the Rockets take the same quality of shot as the opponent, or positive expected value if the turnover results in an easy transition bucket or if the Rockets then hold for the last shot.

 

I assume the reason teams don't do that is that playing too aggressively increases the likelihood that the defense breaks down and the opponent gets an easier bucket. Or worse, you get whistled for a foul. Also, when a team holds for the last shot, there is no offensive rebound, but there might be if they take an early shot against a broken defense. But, I am with you on pressuring the opponent and not letting them do what they want to do. There's some gambling in there, but I think you get some psychic benefits by taking control of the situation.

 

So, mathematically, Dorsey and Capela should start this immediately then.

 

Because NBA guards are very, very good at handling the ball and NBA players in general are very, very good and exposing the press.

One off possessions here and there? Sure. You might catch the offense napping and a little out of rhythm. As a defensive strategy, though, it is a terrible, terrible idea.

 

The Rockets should always shoot after one second is gone from the shot clock - no matter where they are on the floor.
The percentage of the shot is less important than the fact that they now have 23 more seconds with which they can potentially regain possession.
So potentially this is about 24 shot attempts created per possession.
The Rockets could go from 100 possessions to 2400 possessions per game.

Basketball Revolutionized. Morey Ball.

 

I prefer Murphyball strategy: make your damn free throws, millionaires.

Would it be a ridiculous thing to write into someone's contract that they have to achieve a certain free throw percentage or they take a big pay hit or miss out on a bonus? Normal companies have periodic performance evaluations that determine whether you've earned a promotion or a raise or not. What is a more fundamental part of NBA basketball than shooting free throws? Not even dribbling is as fundamental for every player as shooting free throws. Shooting minimum 50% +/- 5% in any game should be as fundamental as showing up to the office on time every day.

My proposed contract clause:

"THE PLAYER and THE TEAM both agree to a yearly salary of $6,000,000 according to provisions of Appendix 1." Appendix 1: "Should THE PLAYER fail to have a free throw percentage of at least 50% over any four-week stretch of games, THE PLAYER agrees to a yearly salary of $600,000."

Threaten to take an O off their salary, and I bet they'd do significantly better at shooting the ball into the O on the court.

 

Yes, it would be ridiculous.

 

They'd just sign a contract with another team that doesn't have that r****ded clause in it.

 

Actually, that type of contract clause is not allowed by the CBA.

 

Are there any sports leagues out there that offer performance based contracts? I don't mean the petty change bonuses NBA teams get for advancing in the playoffs. I mean like actual significant percentages of salary based on team wins or individual performance.