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The myth that all Clinton supporters would support Obama

Discussion in 'BBS Hangout: Debate & Discussion' started by The Cat, Mar 6, 2008.

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  1. The Cat

    The Cat Member

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    I think moderate Dems are underrepresented in your analysis, though. The moderate Dems are typically the rural ones we discussed yesterday -- they identify with the Democratic party by name because of its history, but often swing conservative (especially this decade) because of social reasons. When you strip away the specific label independent and look at the broader context of moderate (which includes almost all independents), you'll see that it's practically identical. Obama +22, Clinton +20.

    I do agree that the 25 percent figure isn't everything, and Obama's appeal to independents/Republicans balances that out to an extent. But the key word there is balance. My point in all this is that it's not the lopsided case that a lot of folks make it out to be. (about 3 Clinton voters wouldn't vote for Obama, millions of Obama voters wouldn't vote for Clinton, etc.)
     
    #21 The Cat, Mar 6, 2008
  2. pippendagimp

    pippendagimp Member

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    As Major already pointed out, I had posted about Repubs/Indies and not the Dems which you cite here. As far as Fauxbama being toxic with Clinton supporters I dunno what would be toxic about his past......so I would guess more of the reason for dislike towards him is because he's black.
     
    #22 pippendagimp, Mar 6, 2008
  3. The Cat

    The Cat Member

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    LOL. With Hillary, you ignore any possible gender/power aspects of the hate, while with Obama, you assume it's racism. That seems fair.
     
    #23 The Cat, Mar 6, 2008
  4. Desert Scar

    Desert Scar Member

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    Great thread Cat!!!

    I think both campaigns and the DNC should meet. 1) Agree they are on the ticket one way or the other. 2) Spell out revoting in Florida and Michigan (or just count the votes if the math for Hillary just isnt there regardless (see #4). 3) agree to not bring in any new negative ads. 4) Spell out whoever gets more pledged delgates takes the top of the ticket period.

    If these figures are accurate I it would look like having Hillary as the VP might cost Obama maybe 2-3% of Republicans who appear ready to support him over McCain (though I dont believe that many Republicans actually would--I think they are fudging in the polls and will go to McCain anyway) and maybe 1-2% of Indies might switch (their Indy spread if only 5%--I think conservatively 20%-40% would find Hillary so distastefull as VP they leave their preferred candidate at the top). Meanwhile it looks like he could cement nother 5-6% of Democrats with her as VP.


    Here is some other related info from another thread...

     
    #24 Desert Scar, Mar 6, 2008
  5. cson

    cson Member

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    Ain't no party like a democrat party y'all!

    The ongoing question has been, How will the Dems feck this up? Well...here it comes.
     
    #25 cson, Mar 6, 2008
  6. The Cat

    The Cat Member

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    I find this sentiment hilarious. How is this ****ing up anything? It's the two best candidates this party has had in a long time, and now they're essentially going to get free airtime for two more months. Dems win in blowout fashion (10+) regardless of the nominee.
     
    #26 The Cat, Mar 6, 2008
  7. pippendagimp

    pippendagimp Member

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    Yeah you're right....I completely forgot about all the voters prejudiced against lesbians :D
     
    #27 pippendagimp, Mar 6, 2008
  8. ymc

    ymc Member

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    Sounds good. But I think Hillary won't agree with 4)
     
    #28 ymc, Mar 6, 2008
  9. The Cat

    The Cat Member

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    I tried to warn some of you that the polls showing Obama as a better GE candidate against McCain than Clinton were being influenced by his status as the assumed nominee for the last couple of weeks. Now that there's a little doubt, here's the first poll released post-Tuesday:

    http://www.surveyusa.com/index.php/...in-poll-after-clinton-victories-in-oh-and-tx/
     
    #29 The Cat, Mar 6, 2008
  10. Oski2005

    Oski2005 Member

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    Says a lot more about Clinton's supporters than it does Obama IMHO.
     
    #30 Oski2005, Mar 6, 2008
  11. real_egal

    real_egal Member

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    Or, it could also say a lot more about Obama's "judgment", who arrogantly concluded that "I am going to get her voters, but she won't get mine."

    When you spin, always remember that everything can be spun both ways. That's the real politics, no matter what brand you put it on.
     
    #31 real_egal, Mar 6, 2008
  12. rocket3forlife2

    rocket3forlife2 Member

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    before the election i would have voted for her, but after the dirty politics and bill saying they didnt need the black vote to win....i rather vote nader!
     
    #32 rocket3forlife2, Mar 6, 2008
  13. count_dough-ku

    count_dough-ku Member

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    Not if the next few months leave the party in disarray. Not to mention Clinton(along with the media FINALLY!!!) will get tough on Obama and vice versa. It's gonna leave the eventual winner bloodied and extremely vulnerable in the general election.
     
    #33 count_dough-ku, Mar 6, 2008
  14. Rocket River

    Rocket River Member

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    I hope so

    Rocket River
     
    #34 Rocket River, Mar 6, 2008
  15. FranchiseBlade

    FranchiseBlade Member
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    By the time of the general election most of the issues brought up during this campaign will be forgotten. There will be new issues brought up that will be getting the most press and attention.

    The press won't stay focused on the same old stuff even they are legitimate points when new issues keep cropping up.
     
    #35 FranchiseBlade, Mar 6, 2008
  16. Invisible Fan

    Invisible Fan Member

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    The growing unpleasantness of this primary season would make me more open to an Obama/Clinton ticket.
     
    #36 Invisible Fan, Mar 6, 2008
  17. The Cat

    The Cat Member

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    This finding is confirmed again in Rasmussen's new poll of MS.

    http://rasmussenreports.com/public_...i/mississippi_democratic_presidential_primary

    I've said it before, and I'll say it again. The biggest misconception in this entire campaign is this idea that Hillary can't reach Obama's voters but Obama can reach Hillary's voters. Obama gets more media attention because his "new" groups are sexier -- the young and across races -- but Hillary reaches a segment of the American population (rural, moderate Dems) that hasn't been touched by Democratic presidential candidates in 12 years.

    I'm not saying you shouldn't like Obama. He's a very good candidate. But if you want to support him, support him on the issues. Don't throw out random things like the "new" voters he brings to the party and the excitement and passion he has among his supporters. Both sides have that.

    I'm also curious how these latest polls jive with the assertion that "about 3" Clinton supporters wouldn't support Obama... ;)
     
    #37 The Cat, Mar 8, 2008
  18. FranchiseBlade

    FranchiseBlade Member
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    I think it goes both ways. Obama won't pull in some of the Democrats that are Hillary only voters. But I don't think Hillary will pull in some of the Independents and GOP voters that Obama can pull in when it comes to the General election.

    For the record I am an independent Obama supporter that will not vote for Hillary no matter what. Part of that is because I'm in CA and it doesn't have a shot at ending up in McCain's corner.

    I also won't vote for McCain no matter what. I'll vote 3rd party if Hillary gets the nomination.

    The polls do seem to support Cat's position that the difference is negligible.

    Though I will say that the polls now during primary season are different once the two parties have their nominees.
     
    #38 FranchiseBlade, Mar 8, 2008
  19. A_3PO

    A_3PO Member

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    You may be on to something.
     
    #39 A_3PO, Mar 8, 2008
  20. Major

    Major Member

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    Honestly, I think much of this is a recent phenomenon. In order to halt his momentum, she's basically torn into Obama - arguing that he's not capable/ready to be commander in chief, etc. Naturally, what she says is more likely to resonate with her supporters, so that would lower their view of him. On the other hand, Obama - whether by choice or simply ineffective arguments - hasn't torn her down as much, so you don't have that same thing as much on the Obama side. Whether any of this can be healed is up in the air. But the longer this goes, the worse those numbers are going to get.
     
    #40 Major, Mar 8, 2008
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