Do you guys remember that stretch when skip and wesley shot behind the arc VERY WELL! i do! its just a matter of confidence for skip.. when tmac went down. everyone knew the season is over.. i think skip is gonna get around 11 ppg. shane is around there as well. juwan at about 9 cuz he can hit open jump shot
Keep in mind that we have always been a top defensive team under JVG, so we don't need to score as much as Dallas, Miami, etc... When rambling on and on about third option, no one seems to mention that teams who have a third option cannot dream of boasting a second option like ours. Josh Howard? Jason Terry? Manu? Parker? Our second best player is either T-mac or Yao. Whichever it is makes no difference.. Our second option is the best second option in the entire league. For me, that makes up for not having a set third option. You know who our third option is? Battier's 3pters + Howard's midrange game + Alston's handles + Sura's driving That's good enough for me. Especially once you throw in V-Span, Novak, Head, and Snyder's scoring ability.. Deke and Hayes' rebounding ability.. We're good. We really don't need it, nor can it realistically be expected of our organization to add a Ginobili, Jason Terry, or someone as good to this squad. I am a firm believer that Yao + T-Mac + Battier is as good a scoring trio as any in the league.
It's not a must, but it goes a long way. Yes we need a third scorer who can create his own shot when Yao is in foul trouble, when either T-Mac or Yao are having an off game, when either Yao or T-Mac is resting on the bench, when either Yao or T-Mac is out of the lineup with injuries, when the role players are playing a bad game, that's five occasions that a third scorer is in need, and that need is compounded by the heavy reliance on 111 and JVG's so so offensive coaching.
No, we didnt have a designated 3rd scorer in the title years - and no we still didn't have one during the 05 playoff push. what we did have in both scenarios was guards who could shoot the ball! K Smith, Cassell, Horry (not a guard but you get the idea) J Barry , Wesley , to some extent Sura. we still don't have that on the current roster. With the slight exception of Battier, who can shoot, but my concern is his D will suffer as a result of extra pressure on him to score. Batt would be a great inclusion on a great team, but he's far from the saviour of our souls.
I think Yao's capable of more than 20 this year. If he plays 35 minutes a game like last year and gets 17-18 shots a game which he should on the offense-less squad, then he can get 23-24 a game. At least 22, which he did last year. Tmac's shots may decrease if Yao's go up but if he takes the same # as last year and makes at his career percentages its automatic 26 points a game. So we're talking 2 more points from Yao-Tmac. Still a big if and still definitely need others to step in big. I'm for getting that one other guy who can be a decent scoring option. If Yao or Tmac goes down like last year, it will be trouble again. Mike James would have been great hitting the open shots...if I were in scouting then Dajaun Wagner would be someone to look at to play the same role on the team. Not as efficient as Mike James but when he was on his game he was a sure threat.
I hope so. Nothing worse than an excellent defensive performance by the team and they lost because no one can hit a shot even if the rim is as big as an ocean. Yao and T-mac will get their points but when Yao is getting double/tripled team and T-mac is having an awful shooting night...who you gonna call? That's when a proven scorer would be needed b/c the current roster is nowhere as capable as the 93-94-95 teams of hitting their shots. The championship teams did not have a 3rd scorer but as someone pointed out they had a plethora of guys who can elevate their game offensively and defensively when needed. The Rox back then got a bad rap as offensively challenged but come play-off time, they could beat you in a low-scoring game or in a shoot-out. That sweep against Orlando was amazing! Orlando was no slouch offensively but Horry, Cassell, Elie and Smith were hitting incredible shot after another. You surround Yao and T-mac with that sort of people, I would say we would be in a far better shape than now. Look at Chucky Brown- he doesn't have an ounce of Stromile's potential or athleticism but he achieved more in one season than Stromile will in a 10 year career. I miss those years! It's our turn now!
I think more than a 3rd scorer, we 0 offensive liabilities. Ryan Bowen. Rick Brunson. You put one of these guys on the floor and it's 4 on 5. Doubling Yao's a no-brainer in that situation. Who cares if Ryan Bowen is open 10 feet from the basket? Same with Bogans. These are guys who actually got real minutes last year. Is it asking too much to want a 5th guy on the floor who can actually hit an occasional wide open shot? You want to get us out of our offensive rhythm? Easy. Just wait 'til Ryan freaking Bowen enters the game and we'll do it for you.
I agree with you (especially about Yao/Tmac/Battier as maybe the best trio), except the highlighted part. I am very considered about whether those other guys are consistent enough. Miami won playing very strong defense, having 1 unstopable guy, and decent enough role players to score off of him. Further, they were more successful in the playoffs as the pace was slower, it was how they changed the complexion of the Dallas series. The Spurs won just 2 years ago, and this year they had the best record in the WC and were a whiskier from beating the Mavs and would have represented the WC. Detiot made it to 2 of the last 3 finals being a slow paced defense 1st team. I don't think the formula is that out of date. I agree. We don't need the 3rd scorer or 3rd creator. It would be nice, but a luxury. But what we do need is guards to knock down open shots consistently. We don't need a Cassell like 3rd scorer, just guys like Kenny Smith or Elie who have very effective spots on the floor. You don't need a proven scorer to hit those shots. You just need somone who is good at hitting open shots. There are a lot more of those guys (good with open shots) than guys who can score or create on the own. I think I agree with you if you are saying you don't want guys with zero offense or erratic offense in key roles more so than a 3rd scorer. They don't have to be great 1 on 1 players or creaters, just guys with efficient spots on the floor.
Sound? Sure, we could use a guy that can get his own shots. But the three amigo approach to a starting line-up doesn't always work out. Think of the "Big Three" approach in recent years. Didn't work in Dallas with the Three Js. Didn't work in HOUSTON with Dream, Clyde and Drexler (okay, WCF v. Utah was better than the year before). It also didn't work with Dream, Barkley and Pippen. Didn't work with Big Dog, Cassell and Allen in Wilwakee. Didn't work for LA with Shaq, Kobe and Malone. You get my point, even if it is lopsided and not completely accurate. Three "scorers"/20+ ppg players in the starting five doesn't work out very well. IMHO, we need players that can effectively space the floor. So what if we don't have T-Mac, Jr. or Mini Ming on the bench. If No. 1 and No. 11 go down with injuries, we lose more than we win. But I just don't think that Mike James signing with Minny was a bad thing (assuming that you were upset about that). We need shooters, not gunners. We need indians, not chiefs. Players that know their roles are more important to this team than a player who wants to be the man (ala "I'm Mike James, bi_tch...show Charlie Hayes your t*tties"). That doesn't mean that I don't want to watch Novak go off for 35 if T-Mac goes down. Hell, I remember watching Sam "I sell Crack" Mack drop 35 (or 38) pts. against Golden State one night and liked that he was ready to step up when Drexler was injured (or was it Elie that was hurt; maybe it was...I seem to recall Elie getting hacked by _____ and Mack getting his PT). Oh well. Just my 1/3 of 1/2 of one cent's worth.
You people that say we don't need a 3rd scorer haven't taken a realistic look at our lineup. Oh yeah, if we had better overall rotation players, a definitive 3rd option scorer would not be essential. But the squad we have this year is ONE very good player short of being a contender, IMO. Sorry, but a committee of Battier, Rafer, Luther, Juwan, Snyder just doesn't do it for me. And let's drop the stuff about the 3rd guy must be able to create his own shot. This is nonsense that just distracts the discussion. A deadeye spot up shooter who can fill it up will do just fine. If Tracy and Yao remain healthy, we will be fun to watch and have a good record. But we are destined to lose in the 1st or 2nd round. Tracy and Yao are not this year's version of the old Kobe and Shaq show. Tracy is not Kobe and Yao isn't as good as Shaq was at his peak. I'm hoping that one of either Snyder, Luther, Novak, Hayes or V-Span develops into something special. Next summer, we should be able to pick up another key player and make a serious championship run in 07/08 if our stars are healthy.
Agreed. I honesty dunno about this. I think the WCF is within reach right now, barring injuries. I think that makes us contenders. The Mavs, Spurs and Suns are tough but not unbeatable...especially in a 7 game series. First, T-Mac's numbers are on par with Kobe's WHEN THE LAKERS WERE WINNING! Yao isn't 30/15 Shaq in the playoffs duing those years, but he is getting closer. Even if you are 100% right about this, that still doesn't mean that we need a more than 12 ppg out of our third scorer. What numbers do you want out of a third scorer? Do want sixty total from our three scorers? Synder: 10-12 ppg now. Luther: poor man's Mobley...in another two years. Novak: my hunch is that the NBA starts using chain nets to save money. Hayes: HE SHOULD START in certain circumstances. V-Span: give him some Ritalin, some game tape, and the occasional lecture and he'll get some All-Star votes some day...he just seems to have one speed-too fast. As for free agents next year, I never, ever go into a season thinking about the next one. Play to win, not to avoid losing. Play every game with urgency.
I'm either with the collective 3rd scorer by committee - I do love when a different guy steps up his play every night when the team needs it - OR that actual other '3rd' option past the big 2 who steps in to contribute when the others are down. A "damage control" type of guy I guess...Doesn't even have to be a starter, could be a 6th man who's the face of the 2nd unit...Who the hell is that guy or those guys on this team now? (No i dont consider Juwan that guy at all) The stats showed how 2005-2006 Rockets got by on what they had the past couple years, which was decent except for injuries. Me I think to be a champion and not just decent they shouldnt look to skimp on by. In the past 25 years Shaq-Kobe was the one team with 2 superstars and little else.. Chicago was the one team without a good big man...but they had a 'scoring guy' in Ho Grant or Toni Kukoc after the big 2. Even Shaq-Kobe had Glen Rice one year. 2004 Detroit has numerous guys that put the ball in the basket. San Antonio had Duncan and Parker and Manu...the person doesnt have to be tabbed a 'third guy'. Just someone's who's good, who will play team ball, and can be counted on. Basically this team needs some better depth and players lol. If the Rockets pulled in Al Harrington or Drew Gooden, Bonzi Wells outta nowhere I bet this place would be lovin that.
I appreciate the analysis. There are some fundamental problems with the analysis however. The conclusion seems to rest on the idea that a TMac and Yao both scoring 24 PPG + estimate PPG's per game for the new roster is about equal to the total PPG's that the 04/05 roster produced, therefore the new team is just as effective as the 04/05 team. The logic seems to be that if total PPG's for the core players are roughly the same then the team is about as good offensively between 04/05 and 06/07. The problem is using PPG as a team estimating offensive efficiency is flawed and you'll see why in a second. The main reasons the analysis doesn't hold up is because PPG is a bad measure of offensive efficiency since it ignores minutes played and team game pace (FGA's and possessions). So let's do some simple math with the above stats to demonstrate. First we let's make sure we're comparing apples to apples. If you're going to compare then you need to include the same # of players between 04,05, and 06. Right now it's 7 players 04, 8 players 05, 8 players 06. Not a huge issue. We can fix that pretty easily. Normalizing 04 to 8 players you would add Scott Padgett to the list (excluding JJ, CWard, MoT) at 4.2 PPG. Let's compare the total PPG for the 04,05,06 as listed above with the inclusion of Padgett in 04 to make a level 8-man comparison. With PPG you find that you get the following totals: 04 - 98.4 PPG 05 - 106.7 PPG 06 - 101 PPG So if total PPG's per game is any indication of offensive efficiency then 05/06 should have been the best offensive team we've had yet, better than 04/05. Hmmm. Ok, let's say the above is skewed for 05 because TMac and Yao both missed significant time, therefore the 106.7 PPG is inflated since only one was . Well how do we account for that? There's not a simple way to do that using avg PPG for a season. I'll save us the trouble since I already had the data crunched for my previous stats post. We might get a gauge of what equivalent lineup might look like during the 19 game stretch from Jan30 to Mar8 with all the above players in the rotation. Here's the PPG totals for that stretch. Tracy McGrady 19.8 Yao Ming 23.1 Rafer Alston 10.3 Juwan Howard 10.3 David Wesley 9.8 Stromile Swift 8.8 Luther Head 5.5 Keith Bogans 8.3 TOTAL 95.9 PPG So the new comparison using PPG would be 04 - 98.4 PPG 05 - 95.9 PPG 06 - 101 PPG Wow, the 05 team with above players in the lineup was pretty close to the same caliber that the 04 team was right ~ 2.5 PPG difference so just slightly weaker? Wrong. Let's look at ORtg comparisons that take into account possessions and FGA's. We find the following: 04 - 106.2 PP100Pos (lg avg 106.1) 05 - 102 PP100Pos 19 game stretch (lg avg 106.2) So PPG comparison that showed the 04 and 05 (with a semi-healthy lineup) teams being sort of equivalent, while the ORtg demonstrates more differentiation between the 04 (avg offensive power) and 05 (below avg offensive power) teams. Bear in mind that the ORtg measures are skewed as well since I'm using the best stretch in 05 vs. the entire season avg. for 04. It takes a bit to crunch the numbers but my hunch is the ORtg for the "good" part of the 04 season the ORtg is probably higher than 106. There's a lot more we can talk about here but I don't have the time to discuss it at the moment.
T-Mac not good as Kobe? Haha, Kobe is good but he is no god. When healthy, T-Mac can score just as well as Kobe can and T-Mac is also the better team player. He's the better passer and trust his teammates more than Kobe. The only advantage I see that Kobe has is his defense. You replace Kobe with T-Mac in those Championship years and they still would have won titles. Maybe even more 'ships because i doubt they would have the problem that Shaq/Kobe had. People fail to realize that besides Shaq and Wade, no other team has a Duo as good as T-mac and Yao. Which is one of the reasons why we don't desperately need that "3rd scorer". I'm not saying that we're a lock for the Finals, but anything is possible if our stars stay healthy. Honestly, I think we're better off getting a hard-nosed PF that can defend and block shots, and gets his points off offensive rebounds and plays around the hoop.
People fail to realize we have more question marks about our team than anyone else who might consider themselves a contender. The unbridled optimism is fine if that's your personality. But last year people got excited and things crashed early. It could easily happen again. Even if Tracy and Yao are healthy we have ONE good proven player to support them. Everyone else is either bad or unproven. Nobody has any idea whether Tracy and Shaq would have won those championships. So what anyway? Tracy right now isn't the high-flying slasher he used. Back problems do that to you. I think we can all agree his best years are behind him. Yao isn't nearly as dominant as Shaq was either. When Yao puts out 10 straight 25/10 seasons in a row talk me. I'll settle for 25/10 for 4-5 seasons in a row. Kobe/Shaq were arguably the two best players in the league over a 2-3 year period. Our duo is great but let's be realistic. Or you can live in dreamland until the bubble pops.
