Like I said earlier, the rockets are in no mans land when it comes to tracy and this summer. If they trade him, they're going to take some long term contracts. If they renounce him in the summer and no of the top tier guys sign, how much better are you as a team? I like Kevin Martin, but to get him the rox would have to take Nocioni also and probabl beno. Its not looking good for the home team.
Can we just focus on the 2009-2010 season? Let things happen how they may. Then as the season goes on, Daryl will do things to make this team better. None of his moves have set us back. All of them made the team better. So, if he were to move Tracy this season, it will be for an important piece or pieces. Might not have max money to spend, but I know we have a gm and an owner that will make all of you feel like we made amazing moves and came out with a great team no matter when you look at the roster. This preseason, during the season, before the trade deadline and after. Then next offseason if the money hasn't been "spent" by trading our chip, we will get an exciting piece to the championship trouble. That is the feeling of the Rockets and that should be our feeling as fans. Role through the season and make moves when they only benefit the team. Don't undercut this season.
No, the 2009/2010 and 2010/2011 seasons are joined at the hip, and it is clearly obvious to anyone paying attention that Morey feels the same way.
Raven, i'm riding shotgun with you on that one. That's how I see it because if the rox renounce tracy after the season and non of the top guys come this way, then what? If they trade him, they are more than likely going to have to take some longer contracts. As I look at the landscape, the rox options aren't that great.
The point of my post is, the moves will happen when they do. It just seems like people have given up on next year and are just focusing on next offseason. Until a move is made, and even when it is, I don't think it would be giving up on this season right in front of us. Daryl has just made moves that benefits the then and future, so even if McGrady is moved during the season, I think it would help this year's team as well.
Steve, I know what you're saying but when the owner and gm comes out and talks about taking advantage of teams having financial problems and the only moves made have been of the avg variety,people wonder about it. Then the notion of the rockets being players in 10 fa,but as bimathung lays out the scerio, then reality slaps up in the face. So now what's left is the shaky foundation of tracy and yao and no other guys scratching at all star level. Again, if they wanted to rebuild i'm all for it,7ut why sign a 30 yr old euro?
He is trying,but it's not going to be easy by any means. Lee is right,our options are limited. Mcgrady's value is not much,otherwise he would have been moved by now. Guys like Luis and Shane are of value to other teams, but getting a star for them is going to be very hard. It's not a question of giving up,we have to be realistic.
Okay, it's time to take a look and see what has changed in the Rockets landscape since my OP back in May: --Yao's fractured foot turned out to be a season ender for 2009-10 --Spent $6M cash and a future second rounder to acquire 3 second round picks --Did NOT re-sign Ron Artest --Applied for and (unexpectedly to most) promptly received a Medical Player Exception for Yao --Used the MPE to sign Trevor Ariza to a 5 year, $34M contract --Traded $2M cash and a future second rounder to acquire the draft rights to David Andersen --Signed David Andersen to a 3 year, $7.5M contract (team option on Year 3) --Signed Jermaine Taylor to a 4 year, ~$3.5M contract (non-guaranteed Year 3, team option on Year 4) --Signed Chase Budinger to a 4 year, ~$3M contract (non-guaranteed Year 3, team option on Year 4) --Signed Pops Mensa-Bonsu to a non-guaranteed contract for the league minimum So, what impact does all this have on the Rockets' 2010 salary cap situation? Well, let's take a look: With the additions of Ariza, Andersen, Taylor and Budinger (all with guaranteed salaries for 2010-11), the Rockets now have total guaranteed salary commitments of approximately $37.4M (Yao, Battier, Ariza, Andersen, Brooks, Taylor, Budinger). I am assuming that the Rockets will pick up the 2010-11 team option on Brooks for only $2,016,691, especially since they will be exercising it by next month. I will also assume that Joey Dorsey's "partially guaranteed" 2010-11 salary is guaranteed for $0, which may or may not be the case. Now, add in the team option on Carl Landry for only $3M (which, although it will make him an unrestricted free agent next year instead of allowing the Rockets to re-sign him as a restricted free agent in 2010, will maximize 2010 cap room), and the total team salary goes up to $40.4M. As for Chuck Hayes and his ~$2.3M team option, the Rockets may actually be MORE likely to exercise it after Yao's injury. With Yao out all season, Chuck will get a big chance to show his worth to the league over the next 82+ games. If he plays well enough (and I actually think he will), his market value may be higher than $2.3M. So, if that team option is exercised, the Rockets' total team salary goes up to $42.7M. If you think that Chuck's option won't be picked up, feel free to follow along in the calculations, remembering to subtract $2.3M from the total as we go along. Now comes the most difficult component: the Rockets restricted free agents, Luis Scola and Kyle Lowry. I think little has changed with regard to both Scola and Lowry. If anything, Yao's injury will only solidify Scola's value around the league, as he will undoubtedly put up the best numbers of his career next season. With a ~$6.77M cap hold that will be below Scola's market value, the Rockets will want to play the waiting game with Luis next summer while they court outside free agents. In fact, Scola could very well be the LAST free agent they (re-)sign. So, with Scola's cap hold, the total team salary is now up to $49.5M. As for Lowry, his ~$6.1M cap hold is higher than his value to the Rockets. Therefore, the Rockets will likely need to either re-sign him quickly to a fair deal or just cut ties with him. (Personally, I'm hoping for the former, not the latter.) Unfortunately, Lowry probably won't re-sign on July 1; so, unless/until the Rockets renounce his rights, their total team salary will be up to $55.6M. Another impact of Yao's injury is that the Rockets will probably finish the 2009-10 season with a worse record than they did in 2008-09. One consequence of this is that the first round salary scale for the Rockets' eventual pick will be higher. For the sake of this illustration, let's say that the Rockets barely miss the playoffs and end up with the #13 overall pick. The scale salary for the #13 pick in the 2010 NBA Draft is $1,599,300. However, most first rounders end up signing for the maximum permitted salary of 120% of the scale amount. In this case, that amount would be $1.92M. This would bring the Rockets' total team salary to approximately $57.5M. Since the above players/picks add up to twelve (12), no roster charges will be imposed on the Rockets' cap space. A roster charge (equal to the 2010-11 rookie minimum of $473,604) is imposed against teams with fewer than 12 players under contract or with cap holds for each player under 12. This year's salary cap is about $57.7M. It will likely go down in 2010-11. With the calculations above, the Rockets will have little to no cap room if they want to keep everyone. Heck, even if they don't pick up Chuck Hayes's team option and renounce their rights to Kyle Lowry, the Rockets will only have about $7-8M in cap room, tops. That number could also go down the higher a lottery pick the Rockets get, or if Joey Dorsey's salary is actually guaranteed for some amount above $0. Which leads us back to Tracy McGrady. If the Rockets let his contract expire, they won't be able to sign an outside free agent to replace him who is anywhere NEAR the caliber of talent that T-Mac is. Also, Morey WILL NOT trade T-Mac for the sake of trading him, having to take back any bad contracts without getting, as he calls it, a "significant asset" in return. THAT is what Morey has been working so hard for: a T-Mac trade that nets the Rockets a significant asset. That is also why T-Mac hasn't been traded yet. Bottom line: Artest may be gone, but his salary has been replaced (and then some) by Ariza, Andersen and two rookies with long-term deals. The Rockets now have even less 2010 cap room than they did in May. I agree with DD that the Rockets would be well advised to use that insurance money (as they have been) to take advantage of all the suckers lining up to be left at the altar by Lebron, D-Wade, Bosh and Amare. It's a buyer's market, and Morey is trying to use T-Mac to accomplish this objective. Until something truly spectacular comes up, Tracy will be a Houston Rocket. If nothing ever happens, then Tracy may be the most viable option in free agency for the Rockets next summer. Sorry for the long post. FYI, I didn't bump this thread. Anyway, . . . enjoy.
Suppose we renounced Scola and Lowry and targeted a backup point in the draft. How much money could we then offer say a PF a little passed his prime but still going strong, say like a Dirk Nowitz?
Trade Shane for an expiring. Allow Tracy's contract to come off the books. Allow Scola's contract to come off the books. The Rockets are now in a position to offer a max next Summer, without going over the cap, correct?
Renounce Hayes, Lowry, Landry and Scola, leaves us with $16 million to sign Bosh. Or pick up Hayes and/or Landry's options and trade them to Toronto for Bosh in a sign and trade.
Really appreciate Bima for such patience in explaining to us. It is actually not very hard to understand trying to cash in on the so-called "2010 FA bonanza" is a pipedream for the Rockets. Gutting a good core to gamble for a chance of a big splash FA is just not very smart anyways. I don't think Morey will consider going that route.
Great stuff, Bima. As far as McGrady possibly being our best option in 2010, I would say an even better option would be to let him walk and allow the team to suck for a few years. High picks don't guarantee anything but at least you have a chance to nab an up-and-coming franchise player to build around. I can't envision McGrady putting us over the top after 13-14 NBA seasons and all the wear and tear on his oft-injured body. Resigning him may just delay the inevitable rebuild. I say let it happen sooner than later.
