battousai, I am going to try to keep this respectful, but I really don't think you know what you're talking about. First of all, the NBA has already leaked the projected 2009-10 salary cap. It is expected to decrease for the first time in many years (if at all). And the reason that no one knows what the 2010-11 salary cap will be is because the salary cap is based on the NBA's total "basketball-related income" (or BRI) from the prior year. It is a set percentage pursuant to the current collective bargaining agreement (which is not expected to run out until some time AFTER the summer of 2010). If the economy does not DRASTICALLY improve, to the point where the NBA's revenues skyrocket next year compared to this season, then the salary cap for 2010-11 is not expected to be a whole lot more than $57-60M. And regarding player salary calculations, the annual increases in EXISTING player contracts are already set, regardless of what happens to the salary cap. Same holds true for the "cap hold" rules that will affect how much Luis Scola and Kyle Lowry count against the cap before they are re-signed. This thread is not about looking at anything as "half empty". It is about stating facts in order to correct some misconceptions people have about the team's ability to sign a major player through free agency while at the same time keeping this core together. That is it. Well, now you're just going completely off topic by factoring in Yao leaving the team. That has nothing to do with my limited topic discussion. Also, Scola will likely command in excess of $5M per season. And I can only assume that your estimate for Ron's deal is $9M per season (and not total). Again, see my point about the salary cap being tied to league revenues, not inflation, for further proof of why you're just wrong. Also, I think you are confusing the "salary cap" (expected to be in the $57M range next season) with the "luxury tax threshold" (which was about $71M this year and is expected to drop next season). The luxury tax is ALSO based on a percentage of league revenues, NOT inflation. I am not trying to "spoon feed" anyone. I am simply stating facts. If you want to confuse the issue using misinformation, then more power to you. Just don't expect the intelligent Rockets fans on this BBS to buy any of it. Again, no disrespect intended. But get your facts straight, buddy.
I hope we can pick up a guy like Michael Redd in 2010, Not really a 10 million contract guy anymore. Injury prone similar to T-mac, except he plays with motivation. Redd could either earn the same contract as T-Mac in 2010 or slightly bigger contract. I still think Yao and Redd is possible. More realistic than Johnson and Yao.
So basically you guys are saying that if Tmac is still a great player (let's just assume Tmac is one of the BEST in the league right now), that we have NO CHANCE of signing him back because with his twenty something millions off the book, it only create about $4-5 millions cap?? So if Tmac demand at least $10million/year, it is not possible?? So the only way we can do anything with Tmac now is to trade Tmac to a team that want to save money? Right? Since Tmac will be off the book in 2010. So in this case, it looks like Houston will have to absorb some sort of bad long term contracts. But then i am thinking that...there are certainly teams out there that want to make a run at Lebron, wouldn't they want to take Tmac contracts and move some of those long term contracts out to Houston so that when Tmac contract expired, it creates for them (in their situation) enough cap to get Lebron?? I am sure there are teams that want that to happen??
No. The Rockets can go over the salary cap to re-sign their OWN free agents. So, if the Rockets wanted to re-sign Tracy, they could go over the salary cap as much as they wanted. Les may have to pay more luxury tax, but he CAN do it. That was my point. Basically, the only star player the Rockets are able to sign to a big contract when Tracy's deal is done is Tracy McGrady. Again, this assumes that the Rockets want to keep their core of other players together at the same time.
So the Rockets can go over the cap to sign their OWN PLAYERS such as Tmac but other teams can't go over the cap to sign Tmac....right??
You got it! (Unless T-Mac wanted to sign with another team over the cap for the MLE (Mid-Level Exception), which is expected to be around $5-6M per season; but I just don't see T-Mac doing that.)
this is what i hope is gonna happen were gonna sign antonio mcdyess to back up yao a great fit..... dont resign von wafer due to the fact he will probably get more money on another team.... remember we can still develop james white ..... now comes the gamble sign allen iverson... A.I?? i know you guys think im crazy but if morey can lure iverson to sign with the rockets i am sure rick adelman can handle him.... if adelman can handle artest which in reality he is not a problem becuz he is a helluva warrior and just wants to win and is loved by his teammates the media only likes to put out the negative..anyways... iverson is somewhat on the same boat... at the end of the day all iverson wants to do is play basketball ofcourse he doesnt fit the 6th man role because he is still a starter..... if we sign him we have a closer with heart... our offense will never get stagent again... now t-mac will possibly be out until feb. so we will likely start brooks, iverson, artest, scola, yao, believe me when i say that adelman can make this line-up co-exist... our bench... lowry, james white or barry, battier, landry, and mcdyess... now t-mac returns with a bang and we contend for a championship... this is very possible guys we will not get any star in 2010 but having this team will give us the best chance to be clutch city for years... understand these players are human and everyone in the nba gets injured... i'm a huge t-mac fan and will never stop supporting him because when healthy he is the closest player to kobe... last year with a messed up leg and shoulder he carried the team in the playoffs and played his heart out he has all these years with the rockets.... you wanna know why we couldn't get passed the 1st round all these other years?? just look at the players we had around him besides yao, battier, alston, scola and mutombo.... u cant remember can you?? does ryan bowen ring a bell?? we didnt have artest, landry and brooks are now playing good, lowry.. we didn't have any of these guys... are you trying 2 tell me if we had yao and t-mac and mutombo healthy in the playoffs we wouldn't contend ?? im a real rockets fan i have supported this team through all the 1st round losses and through the good and bad.. real fans support there team whether they win or lose... now trust me in 2009-2010 it will be the beginning of a dynasty for the rockets... with iverson, yao, t-mac, artest, battier, scola, brooks, lowry, mcdyess, white, barry, hayes, and who ever else i forgot we can win a lot of championships... if morey could only read this you know this makes sense... sign mcdyess and iverson!! in morey we trust....
The Rockets right now are on the books for 33 million dollar cap number for the 2010-2011 season with all important peices except for Scola, Artest and Wafer not on the books yet. If you do the math you can say their contacts together would equal to about 22 million. The salary cap for that season is at an extimated 60 million dollars. The Rockets dont need a superstar for that season so they would be 5 million under the cap to get a solid player or to do a sign and trade with a team who wants one of our valuble commodities for a needed peice. Sell high buy low.
I think you missed my point. U are factoring into that scola, artest, and others will commend a much higher salary then what i projected. By the reasons I listed, I highly doubt they would get any kind of top dollar offer. You kept on talking about the economy issue, but yet you failed to include them into your calculations. All of the options are possibility, but none of them are facts. Could the rockets be trading tmac to someone? perhap someone like Dwade for example, where he could voiced that he will not be back. We traded Dwade for Tmac then resign dwade off season. Your senario is pretty much letting tmac walk away from us for nothing. Les has paid more money on salary for players, however he doesn't like to pay the penalty if he could avoid. Think about your senario, you think Morey is going to let the rockets do that? A team that just passed the first round and tied 2-2 with the lakers without tmac and Yao?
battousai, I DID calculate the economic issues into my calculations. The salary cap is directly based on economic issues, since it is based on a set percentage of league revenues. And why do you keep bringing up T-Mac trade possibilities? That has nothing to do with FREE AGENCY, which was the topic of discussion in this thread. Not trades. Free agency. That's it. If you want to talk T-Mac trades, start a different thread. And I wasn't advocating letting Tracy walk for nothing. The Rockets could go over the salary cap to re-sign McGrady. They just can't do that for any other star player, since Tracy is the Rockets' own player. Also, if you think that Scola and Lowry won't command the same salaries that I am giving them, the Rockets will still need to reach an agreement on new contracts with Scola and Lowry BEFORE they could sign a big time free agent. If there are protracted negotiations with Scola and/or Lowry, like there were with the Landry signing last summer, then the Rockets will risk losing out on the big free agents. Otherwise, the Rockets would need to waive Scola and/or Lowry in order to sign the big money free agent. And you were actually proposing that Artest re-sign for $9M per season, which was actually MORE than in my hypothetical. I think you're closer to the correct amount than I am on that one. I intentionally set Artest's new salary low in order to prove my point that the team STILL wouldn't have enough cap room. So let's recap: (1) The economy is factored into my point (2) T-Mac trades are not part of this particular discussion (3) Scola/Lowry must be signed BEFORE the free agent if their salaries would be low At this point, if you don't agree with my (limited scope) discussion on free agency, then I don't suppose there is any chance you ever will. So, I will stop replying to your posts on this thread from here on out.
A few months back the organization (both from the mouth of the GM, as well as the owner) publicly stated they wanted to be players in the 2010 free agent bonanza, though I have no idea if salary cap adjustments (or something else) might have altered their plans. I'll say this much, though, Alexander loves to make splashy moves, so no one was terribly surprised when he admitted his intention to go after a big name.
I don't think they keep McGrady unless he comes in and totally changes his game, and goes from a "I need the ball" stance to a "Play within the team concept" style of play. I agree with the premise that we will not be players in 2010, been saying that for a couple of years...there is no need to try to be a player when everyone is doing it....try to take advantage of teams trying to be a player by stealing from them as they try to get down in cap space. As for Tmac, I really don't think he will be signed, Feigan said it is unlikely, Jason Freidman said he doubted it.....and the turmoil in the clubhouse can not be overlooked. However, stranger things have happened, maybe Tracy has matured and will be willing to play off the ball more and not whine about his touches. Who knows. DD
I get the feeling Morey has been trying to move him all summer. From the talk about a "big trade" to his latest radio interview where he sounded a little frustrated. He spoke of teams not wanting to deal because they think they're going to win 60 games.
I am not promoting this, but after this very well thought out analysis from Bima (koudos), if we wanted to become big players in the FA market this upcoming offseason we really need to trade a few of our (few, but there are some) multi-year contracts for one or two expiring contracts -- just as some are suggestion we do FOR other teams. This is an option if we feel as though the CAP situation would prolong T-mac and Yao's era together through a cheaper contract from McGrady. If that is something Les/Morey do not want, then some of our multi-year contract players could very well be on their way out for a/some expiring single or multi-contract trade(s). Doing this is a big risk to take considering the fact that just because cap-room is cleared does not mean that players will come flying over here to sign a deal; however, with how dissapointing the T-mac era has been, it may the lesser of the two risks taken when comparing the risk of keeping McGrady, even at a much lower cost. Even if keeping McGrady at a significantly lower price (b/c I can hear the argument that a 70% T-mac is better than a lot of other top guns) is something we would be interested in doing, with the CAP room cleared after the couple of trades, T-mac signing (after the new FA signs -- if it would work like that) for a much lower contract would be a good selling point to bring in a top quality FA AND for T-mac to be willing to sign that lower contract. If my assumption on that is correct then we would still be able to have Yao, T-mac, some of our low-cost, high-quality players, and top FA in Houston. This is all theory of course.
