The Myth of the Rockets and 2010 Free Agency

I really wish there was a way to quantify the amount of cap room available vs. free agent value expected or something like that. I really think there will be vast cash shortages in the offseason and alot of guys will be fighting for few dollars.

 

Yes, and that bodes very well for teams looking to sign their restricted free agents. Another reason why DM is unlikely to make a move that prevents him from bringing back Lowry or Scola: keeping good contracts and avoiding bad ones is the name of the $ball game.

 

Wise words from a sometimes wise man.

 

I think a player like Iguodala is why Morey is saving cap flexibility. I think Iggy is the only thing on 76ers that gets Morey to bite off Dalembert.

 

What if we moved Battier and Andersen to Cleveland for Big Z? That would open up about 9 mill more in cap space for next year.

This may be completely asinine, as I've mentioned it several times with no response, but what if Yao opted out this off-season and the re-signed to a longer term, less-per-year deal? Something like 3 years for 36 mill or so. Given his history of injuries, maybe it would be worth it to him to get those guaranteed years. Maybe he would do it if he thought we could snag a LeBron or Wade. I don't think it's completely unprecedented. Didn't Shaq take less money at one point. I know Chuck did.

If those 2 things happened and we just let T-Mac's contract expire, couldn't we offer the max to someone, while retaining Scola and Lowry?

 

Didn't Cleveland say they would only move Z if there were a buyout and he can return to Cleveland?

 

Yeah, I think you're referring to this bit of news.

http://nba.fanhouse.com/2009/12/08/morey-yao-wont-opt-out-of-contract/

Morey stated he hasn't talked to Yao about it specifically. Maybe he doesn't want to show all his cards just yet. For example, he would definitely lose leverage in a Cleveland deal if they thought Houston was going to have enough money to offer a max contract to Lebron next year.

 

People really underestimate Battier's value in Morey's world, I think.

Sure if the Rockets are getting a superstar in free agency, you don't let love for Battier stand in the way. But just some rather remote chance of competing for a star player? It seems that, given the number of "cap clearing" teams, and given that each of the star FAs may re-sign with his own team (who can pay the player more than anyone else), you are really risking getting nothing even with your cap space. Yes, if you are New York or NJ, it's worth it because you don't have any other way to improve quickly, but I think the math is different for the Rockets.

Also, here' the thing I am thinking about: Even if the Rockets have limited cap room or no cap room, they can still make a play for a max FA by getting the FA to threatend to bolt to NJ (or some such team) unless the FA's original team gets a S&T done with Houston.

 

Bima,

I was under the impression that Yao had an ETO. Doesn't that mean it's NOT guaranteed?

 

Yao has the option to terminate if he chooses to, but it's Yao's option not the Rockets.

ETO - early termination option

 

I think Battier is the easiest to see traded because he is an ultimate team player, great defender, good three point shooter and only one year left on his contract. Any team that has post season aspirations and thinks they could make some noise would love to have Battier.

For the Rockets he is advancing in age and would produce a decent amount of cap relief although there is no doubt that they would hate to see him go.

Trading Battier seems to make the most sense to me.

 

Really at some point you should consider a zero on the road and no longer a elite defender isn't worth 7m. How much was bowen getting paid all his years in s.a.? We can go on, you're still scared to criticize shane and his horrible play. One minute his per says it all, then the next when he's in the red, you cant quantify his impact. Try this on for size, on the road 36% and 7 ppg and you call that veterant leadership? Doing jack on the road. Noone said tear the roof off the joint, but please, do something.

 

Defense.....clap, clap, clap....Defense...clap, clap, clap.....

He is there for DEFENSE....but hey, I did the broadcasts of the SWTSU games, and no one paid any attention to defense there either.



DD

 

Leeb makes a valid point though. Battier's "overall value" doesn't just come from his intangibles and his all world defense, it also comes with the assumption that he is a low volume, high percentage scorer, like Bruce Bowen was at his peak. Don't get me wrong, I am firmly in the Battier in the Battier/Gay trade, however I see some people get so used to Battier's invisibility that ineptitude becomes the norm for him. A 7 mill player isn't supposed to be just a defensive stopper and an offensive liability, that's Chuck Hayes type of money or roughly half his salary. At the very minimum Battier should be able to hit open 3s consistently, and as it is he isn't doing even that right now.

 

He's hitting his 3s at a 36% rate, and before his January cold spell, I believe he was at about to 38%. This is pretty decent 3 point shooting, particularly considering he's not just launching open 3s. He took some hurried ones or at least somewhat contested onces too either because clock was running down or because the offense wasn't otherwise working, so a somewhat contested 3 even in an early-clock situation was better than what the offense was producing otherwise.

By the way, nobody hits open 3s "consistently" just like nobody can make heads come up consistently when flipping a coin. Luck is involved. If you are a low volume shooter, you are especially likely to have some multi game dry spells.

 

He is shooting 37% from three....

 

I guess we're just seeing it differently. In my opinion, if you're taking so few shots a game then you better take higher quality shots and convert at a higher percentage to be of use to the team.

36% is good in the abstract, but in real game terms, what does it really mean? Your swingman who plays for 30 mins a night only gives you 1 made 3 pointer per game. It doesn't matter that Battier is hitting his shots at a "decent" rate, the fact that he shoots so little means his measley 3 pt doesn't really affect the outcome at all. IMHO he should be shooting at the 40's to have a tangible effect on the team

In fact, I will hazard a guess that if you plot Battier's % per game and our wins/losses, you'd probably find very little correlation if at all. Battier's contribution in terms of points is so measley my guess is it doesn't matter how high or how low he converts it at. I mean, supposing he undergoes a cold spell and misses all his 4 shots, that's not really all that big a deal cuz Ariza alone jacks that many a quarter, and there's an even bigger chance he'll miss them all than Battier.

The crazy thing about Battier is that although his PPG is again "decent" at 8.3 PPG, 12 games where he scored 5 pts or less total. Meaning 30% of the time his net contribution will be 5 pts or less a game. The reason why his average looks decent is because he's had two 20 pt games. Take those two outliers out and his average goes down a whole PPG, which is kinda' pathetic considering we've already played 36 games so far AND two 20 pt games aren't really all that impressive esp. for someone earning 7 million a year

 

He's old. Just get rid of him.