Not even that. The $14M figure assumes the highest (somewhat probable) salary cap. It's probably closer to $11-12M, tops, without the first rounder. On Andersen, I think it was a gamble worth taking. If the Rockets came into this season with only Chuck Hayes at center, it was probably viewed as unlikely that the team could make the playoffs. Then, who WANTS to sign in Houston? Andersen is pretty good value at his salary. You just know that he's going to improve (and has improved) over the course of the season. Plus, in 2011-12, his contract is only partially guaranteed for $135k. It may end up being an attractive asset come the summer of 2011.
So, realistically, trading T-Mac for a star with a long term deal that a team wants to unload is our only real chance of landing a big ticket player? Jesus, I didn't realize this situation was so dire... We have to trade T-Mac!
That is why there are such things as "cap holds" in the first place. Otherwise, teams like Portland and OKC could just wait until their young stars became free agents (2010 for Portland; 2011 for OKC) and use the cap space on max guys before re-signing them. As you saw, Portland knew that it could not carry over its cap room to 2010, when both Roy and Aldridge were set to become free agents. Instead, they just spent that room on Andre Miller and then signed Roy and Aldridge to extensions. Now, if a team still had a ton of cap room after INCLUDING the cap holds, that team could sign an outside free agent and then re-sign its own free agents and exceed the salary cap. But not if the cap holds themselves eat up the cap room.
Bima, listen to Morey's interview this morning, he pretty much confirmed your analysis. He said the more important budget limit is the tax threshhold, the salary cap number is hard to get under unless they make some creative maneuvers. If he's intending to spend up to the tax threshhold, there is no way he can be have and use cap room as far as I know.
Thanks, so basically, if we renounce Scola and his cap hold, for example, then we lose his bird rights, meaning we can then sign an outside free agent, but cant resign Scola anymore?
I think Bima did catch Morey's interview based on his post at the top of this page. It sounds like we should listen to offers for McGrady and if something good comes along, take it. If not, let his contract expire, use the cap holds and resign Lowry and Scola then do what we can with our exceptions. In the long run, if we can't win a championship in the next couple of years with Yao, we may just have to deal with getting worse before we get better and hope we can land our next franchise player through the draft, no matter how unlikely that is.
Yes a Soft Cap: Unlike the NFL and NHL, the NBA features a so-called soft cap, meaning that there are several significant exceptions that allow teams to exceed the salary cap to sign players. Wiki NBA Salary Cap
Its still going to be tough to trade tmac. His contract is so big its almost unimaginable to find a taker that will give us enough to match salaries along with enough talent for Morey to pull the trigger.
Excellent analysis Bima. I don't think Morey is banking on signing a max free agent next summer. Its too much to give up if you need to renounce the rights of Scola, lowry and Hayes. Furthermore, I think you need to trade Battier now for an expiring contract and/or someone who will make less money next year to be sure that we will have the max. cap room to sign a max free agent. And there is no assurance that these max guys will want to come to Houston after all. The good news is next summer after we sign Lowry and Scola and pick up the option on Hayes, our payroll should only be around $55m, that means we have room to take on a big non-expiring contract for potential TMac trade and we can still be under the LT next season. That's probably what it takes for another team to send us young talent on any Tmac trade as they will dump a long bad contract to us. Also it is interesting on the Landry option. I won't be surprised if Morey makes him a restricted free agent next summer in order to sign him to a long term deal with a lower annual salary as you said.
Isn't he only getting around 3 Million per year now ? How could we expect to get him cheaper than that ?
As Bima said, if we pick up this option to pay him $3m next season, he will become a free agent after next season and most likely will get a much better offer as the salary cap will most likely go up as the economy improve and he will also improve further as a player next season and rack up better stats. If we make him a restricted free agent next summer, I don't think that many teams have the cap room to offer him more than the MLE, and even if they do, the money will go to Bosh and Amare first. We can match any offer for him, and let say if someone offer him the max MLE deal, then we will pay him $2-3m more next season but in the long run we will save money.
Code: [b]Houston Rockets Player 2010/2011 [/b] Yao Ming [B][COLOR=purple]$17,686,100[/COLOR][/B] Shane Battier $7,429,500 Trevor Ariza $6,322,320 Luis Scola [B][COLOR=Red]$4,105,834[/COLOR][/B] Carl Landry [B][COLOR=Navy]$3,000,000[/COLOR][/B] David Andersen $2,500,000 Chuck Hayes [B][COLOR=Navy]$2,334,125[/COLOR][/B] Kyle Lowry [B][COLOR=Red]$2,975,165[/COLOR][/B] Aaron Brooks $2,016,692 Joey Dorsey [B][COLOR=SlateGray]$947,140[/COLOR][/B] Chase Budinger $780,871 Jermaine Taylor $780,871 [b]Total salaries: $50,878,618 w/o qualifying offers: $43,797,619 Total w/o options: $20,777,394 [B][COLOR=Navy]Blue - Team option[/COLOR][/B] [B][COLOR=Red]Red - Qualifying offer [/COLOR][/B] [B][COLOR=SlateGray]Grey - Unguaranteed[/COLOR] [/B] [B][COLOR=Purple]Mauve - Early termination[/COLOR][/B][/b] Here is a break down of the Rockets salary obligations for next season as well as the qualifying offers. Knowing how shrewd Daryl Morey is I would assume that he will exercise the team option on Landry and try to strong arm both Lowery and Scola into one year deals at the qualifying offer in order to maximize their value before having to offer multi year deals. I am also assuming that Joey Dorsey will be gone if he does not show enough ability to allow the Rockets to move Hayes. My gut feeling is that Chuck will be back next season since I have little to no faith that Dorsey can replace him. I also believe the most likely trade pieces leading up to this seasons trade deadline are as follows: 1. Shane Battier - 7.5 million salary off of the books when they already have Trevor Ariza and Chase Budinger might make sense to the Morey, especially considering that he is not getting any younger. I think he would probably fairly easy to move as most contenders would love to have him on their team. I think it all depends on if Morey feels he could get something along the lines of a super star player in the off season. 2. Scola and Lowry - As BimaThug has already pointed out they are the real wild cards this summer because they are restricted free agents but have a substantial cap hold. IMO the Rockets would rather not include Landry in any trade talks due to his age vs. Scola's age and also due to his ability on the offensive end of the court. The fact that he is a virtual steal when considering his salary and production plus the fact that he is a restricted free agent I would think he would be very easy to move. I also think the Rockets love Lowery but value Brooks more which makes them more likely to dangle him prior to the deadline.
This is what I've been telling the people who "rejoice" over TMac's demise. Getting a franchise level player back from getting rid of TMac is extremely difficult. Right now, I am hoping for the Iggy deal to come true. I can only dream.
IMO if DM wants to play the free agent market this summer for one of the max free agents he is going to have to make at least one trade, probably Battier, at some point prior to the trade deadline. He can then make the qualifying offer to Scola and Lowry (providing they don't sign), cut Dorsey's non-guaranteed contract and play the field. If a max free agent wants to play for the Rockets Morey renounces the rights to Scola and Lowry. All long shots I would guess.
Oops, as Brooksball pointed out, I forgot to read the paragraph you posted on the interview this morning sinc it was below your original analysis of the cap. About the Rockets "real cap": I read from Larry Coons' CBA FAQ that the (actual? projected?) lux tax threshold for 09/10 is $69.9 million, down from $71.1 million. Morey mentioned that that amount is likely to go down next year. If the salary cap is going down from $57.7 mil to 54 mil (by $3.7 mil), I am guessing the lux tax threshold will go down by a comparable amount as well-- let's say it's $66 million ($3.9 mil below prior level). This means that the Rocket have $23.3 million or so (the difference between $66 mil and the $42.7 mil number you had after the team picks up Landry's Chuck's options) to: (1) resign Scola, if they choose to (2) resign Lowry, if they choose to (3) resign Cook, if they choose to (haha! kidding) (4) pay whatever remains on the book next season from a potential TMac trade, (5) sign their draft pick(s), (6) sign FAs using the MLE or LLE. Given the foregoing, one can definitely see why the Rockets would be reluctant to take back a crap non-expiring contract in a trade. It may not matter as to the "cap room" but it will eat into their room under the tax threshhold. Every dollar you are paying, say, a Sam Dalembert, is a dollar you are not paying Scola, Lowry, or someone useful you get from the McGrady trade or free agency. I am thinking, conservatively, that Scola + Lowry will cost the Rockets about $9 to 10 million a year combined. That leaves about $13 to 14 million to pay everyone else. What does this mean? (1) if the Rockets are trading for a well-paid established player (Kevin Martin), they will be highly reluctant to take a crap contract back too, particularly one that lasts for more than one season (i.e. Nocioni). (2) so you can probably say goodbye to the Iggy+Dalembert package unless Les really wants to pay the luxury tax for Iggy (doubt it). Dalembert's deal goes out only 1 more year, but it's huge and probably hard to trade. (3) the Rockets will be more willing to take a crap contract if the enticement is a younger guy on his rookie deal (for example, A. Randolph + a crap contract still likely keeps Rockets under the tax limit). (4) There is the option of not bringing Scola or Lowry back, but again, you gotta weigh their value vs. the potential benefit of whatever the team gets from a trade. (5) Les has said many times that the Rockets will make an exception and pay tax for a real superstar, but I am guessing this only applies when we are talking a Chris Paul type of pipedream. Not sure if a Kevin Martin or Iguodala applies.
Bima, thanks for posting the detailed information. This is extremely helpful. But I strongly disagree with your conclusion, which is "we can't sign a top free agent if McGrady's contract expires." That conclusion seems to be entirely based on the idea that $13 million in cap holds on Scola and Lowry will bring us close to the cap, leaving nothing with which to sign a player. Look, I love both Scola and Lowry. But it is extremely rare when an up-and-coming NBA team, one that is attractive to free agents, has the ability to sign a max-type player. If we get that opportunity this summer, we are not going to let that go so that we can hold onto Scola and Lowry. If we sign a max-type player, and let Scola and Lowry go, does that leave us a little thin? Sure. But Morey is well-equipped to use MLEs, LLEs, draft picks, cash offers, and trades to replace key role players. Plus, we may very well be able to squak in a $2M qualifying offer to Lowry on top of a large contract. But if we do get the opportunity to sign a max-type player, and we let it pass us by, we won't get that chance again for a long, long time.
Nice post but I'm not sure how you came to that final conclusion. I very much think that the thinkers behind the scenes have much bigger plans for Lowry as a Rocket, especially Morey. Lowry is among the best at his position in the league in several areas (rebounding, defending, pushing the tempo, getting to the line). I think he's a gem and your statement should be reversed. They like Brooks but value Lowry more and are more likely to use Brooks' increased trade value prior to the deadline or at some point in the future.
