So is your complaint that the Rockets gave up some recent (late) second round picks that could have somehow become All-Stars (even though the Rockets have bought more second rounders in the last 3 years than just about any other team)? Or is your complaint that the Rockets gave up two first rounders for Ron Artest and (at the time) became instant title contenders? Or are you STILL harping over how the Rockets traded the crap contract of Stromile Swift + the draft rights that would have been used to select Thabo Sefalosha in exchange for Shane Battier? Unlike you, I just don't see a fundamental flaw in the Rockets' strategy towards building a winner in Houston. Sure, some people think the Rockets should not have traded for Battier and instead should have selected Rudy Gay in 2006 (which was never going to happen in the first place). Sure, there are some (misguided) people who think that Donte Greene will become an All-Star and that the #23 pick of the 2009 NBA draft SURELY would have been used to select [insert name of whoever ends up in a few years being the best player taken #23 or after from this draft class]. But I not only blindly believe in this management group, I AGREE with almost everything they have done. Oh, and Tony Parker was taken in 2001. Barbosa was drafted in 2002. But if what you say is true, that great teams should keep adding good talent, regardless of need, then it holds true that the Spurs should not have traded the draft rights to Barbosa. You can't have it both ways.
What will next summer's salary cap be? December, 24, 2009 Dec 246:50AM ET Comment Email Print Share By Chris Sheridan With NBA gate receipts down less than anticipated, the doomsday scenario of a $6-7 million drop in the salary cap for the 2010-11 season now seems overly pessimistic. Everyone still expects the cap to go down heading into the summer of 2010 when the league will have one of its strongest free agent classes in years, but by how much? ESPN.com has been digging around for preliminary cap projections, and here is what we have uncovered: The Miami Heat are the most conservative in their estimates, basing their planning for next summer's cap at $52 million. The New York Knicks are using $53 million as their operating number, and the New Jersey Nets are being the most optimistic, expecting the cap to come in between $54 and $55 million. The league office told teams at the Board of Governors meeting on the eve of the season opener to expect the cap to come in somewhere around the $52 million range, but agents who have been briefed on updated financial receipt figures now are using $54 million as their operating number. The salary cap dropped from $58.68 million in 2008-09 to $57.7 million for the current season, and the league issued a memo in early July projecting that Basketball Related Income -- the formula through which the cap is calculated -- was expected to drop 2.5 to 5 percent this season, hence the doomsday scenario of a cap drop all the way down south of $51 million. Gate receipts over the remainder of the season will impact the cap calculations going forward, so the numbers listed above are merely the best guestimates available at this time. But one thing is certain: The Knicks, Heat and Nets -- the teams who will have the most cap space -- are all hoping that ticket sales and gate receipts continue to come in stronger than originally forecast, which will give them more money to throw around when LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh, Joe Johnson, Carlos Boozer and a host of others become unrestricted free agents
http://www.shamsports.com/content/pages/data/salaries/rockets.jsp Code: [b]Houston Rockets Player 2009/2010 2010/2011 2011/2012 2012/2013 2013/2014 2014/2015[/b] Tracy McGrady $22,483,124 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Yao Ming $16,378,325 [B][COLOR=purple]$17,686,100[/COLOR][/B] N/A N/A N/A N/A Shane Battier $6,939,200 $7,429,500 N/A N/A N/A N/A Trevor Ariza $5,854,000 $6,322,320 $6,790,640 $7,258,960 $7,727,280 N/A Brian Cook $3,500,000 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Luis Scola $3,284,667 [B][COLOR=Red]$4,105,834[/COLOR][/B] N/A N/A N/A N/A Carl Landry $3,000,000 [B][COLOR=Navy]$3,000,000[/COLOR][/B] N/A N/A N/A N/A David Andersen $2,314,815 $2,500,000 $2,685,185 $3,356,481 N/A N/A Chuck Hayes $2,147,750 [B][COLOR=Navy]$2,334,125[/COLOR][/B] N/A N/A N/A N/A Kyle Lowry $2,034,996 [B][COLOR=Red]$2,975,165[/COLOR][/B] N/A N/A N/A N/A Aaron Brooks $1,118,520 $2,016,692 $2,976,636 N/A N/A N/A Brent Barry * $1,062,800 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Joey Dorsey $881,000 [B][COLOR=SlateGray]$947,140[/COLOR][/B] $1,011,600 N/A N/A N/A Pops Mensah-Bonsu* $825,497 [B][COLOR=Red]$1,060,120[/COLOR][/B] N/A N/A N/A N/A Chase Budinger $725,000 $780,871 $884,293 $942,293 N/A N/A Jermaine Taylor $725,000 $780,871 $884,293 $942,293 N/A N/A [b]Total salaries: $73,274,694 $43,797,619 $12,256,011 $9,143,546 $7,727,280 $0 Total w/o options $73,274,694 $20,777,394 $11,244,411 $0 $0 $0[/b] Blue - team option Red - Qualifying offer Asterisk - not on roster Grey - Unguaranteed Mauve - Early termination 2009/10 max salary cap figure: $57,700,000 2009/10 min salary cap figure: $43,275,000 2009/10 luxury tax threshold: $69,920,000 2009/10 Mid Level Exception figure: $5,854,000 2009/10 Bi-Annual Exception figure: $1,990,000 2009/10 maximum player salary, 0-6 years service: $13,520,500 2009/10 maximum player salary, 7-9 years service: $16,224,600 2009/10 maximum player salary, 10+ years service: $18,928,700 From rockets934life I have not read all of the posts in this thread but the overall tone of this thread has been that there will not be enough money to offer any one a max contract next summer. But the data here shows that there is still a very good chance that a max contract might be extended. Here is how I understand it. 1. Pops is already gone so you can subtract his 1.12 million from the 43 million the Rockets are obligated for in 2010. 2. The 200% hold for Scola and Lowery will not apply since they are restricted free agents and the Rockets can make a qualifying offer which is figured into the salary chart above. 3. I don't see the Rockets keeping Joey Dorsey next summer so subtract another 1 million from the roster because he is not guaranteed next season. 4. Our 43.7 million cap drops to about 41.7 after the subtraction of Pops and Dorsey. 5. That leaves us with one roster spot to fill (after subtracting Dorsey, McGrady, Pops, Berry and Cook) in order for us to get back to the required number of 12 on the roster. Mike Harris, Von Wafer or Draft pick would take that spot. I would suspect what ever move we make here will add about 1 million to the cap which would bring it back up to about 42.7 million. With the info that rockets934life just provided that leaves us with about 10 to 12 million of cap space to play with. In order to be serious about going after guys like Bosh, Wade, Stoudimire or James we need another 6 or 7 million of cap room. Looking at some of our assets I would think that would not be doable. Primarily Shane Battier would be the obvious choice to ship out for salary relief sometime prior to the the summer. Of course all of this works off of the assumption that we just let TMac expire. I'm not sure any of us really believe he will finish the season in Houston and what happens prior to the trade deadline could change every conceivable scenario that has been discussed and might even net us our closer with out having to look for one in free agency. Worst case scenario IMO is that we just let TMac walk and don't trade Shane for cap relief and go into free agency with 10 to 12 million in cap space. That would still give us the muscle to land a high level performer to already go with a very deep and very talented team. If no quality free agents are available then entering next season with the current cast of players plus Yao and a first round draft pick would be great as well when coupled with a 10 million worth of cap space. We would be one of the few teams that could trade for almost any available player in the league with out worrying about how the trade would work due to such a large amount of cap space.
Come on, now, crash! Did you even ready my OP??? Scola's cap hold (200%) and Lowry's cap hold (300%) VERY MUCH count against the salary cap this summer. Being a restricted free agent has nothing to do with it. In fact, most restricted free agents (well, at least former first round picks) have the HIGHEST cap holds in the league. Sorry to shoot your theory down. Nice work otherwise.
I thought we were over this topic already. Morey will at best have an MLE to play with and I don't see him adding another role player onto our roster.
Can we use MLE money if we are under the cap? I thought we couldn't which would make it worse if we were something like $4 million under the cap. Or could you sign someone for $4 million and then spend your MLE money after that? I've given up on getting under the cap and now I'm thinking just get under the LT this year, get the roster ready for next year, use the #1 pick wisely and pick up someone good with our MLE money - and hope that Yao comes back healthy.
Technically, the MLE, LLE, etc. are all included in every team's computation of total team salary. Teams wishing to have salary cap room must renounce these salary cap exceptions in order to get the cap space. What this means for teams that are, like you say, "only $4M under the cap" is that the team would choose NOT to renounce the MLE or LLE. So, instead of the $4M they would have had if all salary cap exceptions had been renounced, the team gets to use the MLE and LLE (but not the "extra" $4M). Hope this explains it.
I hope to re-sign both Scola or Lowry. I think I'm emotionally attached to this team because I don't care to sign any other player unless Bron is willing to come to Houston. That's the only way I would sacrifice both of those players.
Me, too. Although, as Landry gets better and better this year (and as the salary that he will eventually command looks like it's getting higher and higher), I'm starting to get a sick feeling in my stomach that Daryl Morey may . . . gulp! . . . have to consider dealing Scola this season. With the Rockets having a $3M team option on Landry for next year, Carl is the obvious choice to stay IF the Rockets had to pick one player to keep. Morey has to keep a handle on the Rockets' team salary growth over the next two seasons, when Scola (2010), Lowry (2010), Brooks (2011) and Landry (2011) are all due for major pay increases. Add to that any free agents, whatever the teams gets in return for T-Mac, Yao's inevitable new contract, and suddenly the Rockets could be dealing with a bloated payroll. Personally, I hope that my fears aren't realized. Or, at least that Scola would net the team a MAJOR asset. I like Scola as a player too much to be okay with any other outcome.
I don't think its that black and white. Just based on how DM has operated I think he will offer only the qualifying offer so other teams cant fly in and sign them away from us. At that point if a top free agent wants to sign with the Rockets and Scola or Lowery don't want to play ball the Rockets could renounce their rights if they value said free agent more than them. Of course I don't know what free agents DM value more than Scola or Lowery combined. If that is a wrong assumption then let me know but I read the salary cap FAQ and saw nothing that would prohibit this. Knowing that Morey is such a shrewd business man I don't doubt for a second that he would do this if it benefited the Rockets. Further more if they don't sign a big time free agent in the summer they are still in very good position after they sign Scola and Lowery (providing they don't stray to far from the qualifying offer) for the coming year for trades. I could certainly see DM playing hard ball to get one more season of value out of Scola and Lowery before considering opening the purse strings to far. To go into next season with Yao and a 1st round pick plus somewhere in the ball park of 10 million cap space with this current core of players would be huge. Even if you only have 7 or 8 million cap space, the teams flexibility in trades next season become extremely valuable. With the type of players the Rockets could offer in a trade coupled with the cap space would make the Rockets the premium trade partner for any team next season.
Disagree with this. If DM wants to get this teams salary down going into next summer I think he has options to make that happen. Including playing hardball with Scola and Lowery and forcing them to take the one year qualifying offer.
Again, nothing you have said is any different that what I have been saying in this thread all along (re: Scola and Lowry), except for the part about going into the 2010-11 season with the cap room to make other deals. While that is an interesting twist that you add, I think that the only benefit taking that cap room into the season would have would be to pick up a small asset in exchange for absorbing a bad contract (think OKC getting Maynor for taking on Harpring's contract). Frankly, I'd rather (a) re-sign Scola and/or Lowry or (b) otherwise use that cap room on a player who can help the team. (As an aside, the name of the Rockets' backup PG is "Kyle Lowry", not "Lowery". I have noticed you and others consistently misspelling his name. He is rapidly making up ground on David "Anderson" Andersen as the most often misspelled Rockets name around here. Sorry. Just a pet peeve of mine.) All of them (McGrady, Cook, Scola, Lowry, Landry (TO), Hayes (TO)). The rest of the guys are under contract for next season. Well, technically, the Rockets would not have Bird rights on Mike Harris (if he blew up this season for whatever reason, a la Von Wafer last year).
With all the drama surfacing over the past week involving a certain Tracy McGrady, there has been a resurgence in discussions (in entirely too many threads!) about how any McGrady trade--or just letting his contract expire--will affect the Rockets' salary cap situation next summer. So, in the spirit of repeating myself (yet again), here is an updated breakdown of the Rockets' salary situation, along with some revised commentary, now that bringing T-Mac back next season appears to be completely off the table: First, let's take a look and see what has changed in the Rockets landscape since my last update (see Post #152): --Picked up 2010-11 team option on Aaron Brooks (for $2,016,691) --Waived Pops Mensa-Bonsu, who was fortunately picked up off of waivers by the Raptors (thereby avoiding his $50,000 in guaranteed salary counting towards the luxury tax) --Sent Joey Dorsey down to the RGV Vipers --Attempted to sign Von Wafer (but he failed his physical) --Signed Mike Harris to a (presumably) non-guaranteed contract --Management is now aggressively looking to trade Tracy McGrady So, what impact does all this have on the Rockets' 2010 salary cap situation? Well, let's take a look: Starting with the players with guaranteed salaries for 2010-11, the Rockets currently have total guaranteed salary commitments of approximately $37.4M (Yao, Battier, Ariza, Andersen, Brooks, Taylor, Budinger). I am assuming that Joey Dorsey's "partially guaranteed" 2010-11 salary is guaranteed for $0, which may or may not be the case (although I think that it is). Now, add in the team option on Carl Landry for only $3M. Prior to the start of this season, I actually thought there was at least a small chance that the Rockets might decline that team option in order to make Landry a restricted free agent (rather than have him become unrestricted next summer), hoping to re-sign him at a lower salary (due to the chilled bidding of restricted free agency) for a total salary savings over the long term. However, given Landry's strong play this year, picking up the option appears to be a no-brainer. That brings the total team salary up to $40.4M. As for Chuck Hayes and his ~$2.3M team option, the Rockets seem more and more likely to exercise it, given the way that Chuck has been huge stepping in for Yao. If Chuck Hayes's defense was at all a secret going into this season, it's not anymore. If his option is declined, some other team will gladly pay for his services. So, if that team option is exercised, the Rockets' total team salary goes up to $42.7M. If you think that Chuck's option won't be picked up, feel free to follow along in the calculations, remembering to subtract $2.3M from the total as we go along. The real key to the Rockets' salary cap situation lies with their restricted free agents, Luis Scola and Kyle Lowry. Keep in mind that, the way restricted free agency typically works, the team only has to make a league-mandated "qualifying offer" (which is not the same thing as the player's "cap hold", which is the number that REALLY matters for purposes of figuring a team's salary cap room) and can simply wait out the player until: (a) the parties can come to an agreement on a new deal (usually at below the player's market value had he been unrestricted); (b) the player signs an offer sheet with another team, in which case the original team has a week to decide whether or not to match the offer sheet and bring the player back on the same terms as those in the offer sheet; or (c) the player accepts the qualifying offer, plays one more year for the team and then becomes an unrestricted free agent the following season (and cannot be traded during the season without his consent). This process usually drags on until August or September. This means that a team's hopes of maximizing cap space by quickly re-signing its restricted free agents to new salaries below their cap holds, before the big free agents sign with other teams, is VERY difficult and unlikely. Scola has garnered more attention this season as a walking double-double (almost), having emerged from the shadow of Yao Ming. While not as flashy as Landry this season, Scola is putting up some pretty damn good numbers. With a ~$6.77M cap hold (200% of his 2009-10 salary) that may be below Scola's market value, the Rockets might actually WANT to play the waiting game with Luis next summer while they court outside free agents. So, with Scola's cap hold, the total team salary is now up to $49.5M. As for Lowry, the Rockets may have made a mistake by not extending his contract before the deadline early this season. His stellar play off the bench has been one of the single biggest keys to the Rockets' success this season. While I personally think that Morey could have locked up Lowry with a multi-year deal starting in the $3-4M range, it is likely that Lowry's asking price has gone up in the last few months. His ~$6.1M cap hold (300% of his 2009-10 salary) is still probably higher than his value to the Rockets, however. Therefore, the Rockets will likely need to either re-sign him quickly to a fair deal or just cut ties with him. (Personally, I'm hoping for the former, not the latter.) Unfortunately, Lowry probably won't re-sign on July 8 (the first day on which free agents can sign new deals); so, unless/until the Rockets renounce his rights, their total team salary will be up to $55.6M. Another change from my last update relates to the expected salary of the Rockets' first round pick. With the Rockets' surprising start this season (even with the league's toughest schedule, it is now more likely than not that the Rockets make the playoffs), combined with the even-worse-than-expected weakness of the Eastern Conference, the team can expect to pick somewhere in the #19-22 range. For the sake of this illustration, let's say that the Rockets make the playoffs and end up with the #19 overall pick. The scale salary for the #19 pick in the 2010 NBA Draft is $1,181,800. However, most first rounders end up signing for the maximum permitted salary of 120% of the scale amount. In this case, that amount would be about $1.42M. This would bring the Rockets' total team salary to approximately $57.0M. Since the above players/picks add up to twelve (12), no roster charges will be imposed on the Rockets' cap space. A roster charge (equal to the 2010-11 rookie minimum of $473,604) is imposed against teams with fewer than 12 players under contract (or with cap holds) for each player under 12. This year's salary cap is $57.7M. It will likely go down in 2010-11 to anywhere from $54M (very likely) to as low as about $50M (realistic worst case scenario). With the calculations above, the Rockets will actually be OVER the salary cap if they want to keep everyone. Even if they don't pick up Chuck Hayes's team option and renounce their rights to Kyle Lowry, the Rockets will only have about $5-6M in cap room, tops. If they also renounce their rights to Scola, we're only talking about $11-12M, tops. That's only IF league revenues are significantly better than projected by the league. That number could still go down further if the Rockets end up with a lottery pick or if Joey Dorsey's salary is actually guaranteed for some amount above $0. Is a second-tier (or, more realistically, a third-tier) free agent REALLY worth losing Scola, Lowry AND Hayes??? Especially when the Rockets could instead keep all three and still use the MLE and LLE to acquire free agents? Remember, salary cap exceptions are not available to teams opting to use their cap space. All of this now leads us back to Tracy McGrady. If the Rockets let his contract expire, they won't be able to sign an outside free agent to replace him who is anywhere NEAR the caliber of talent that T-Mac is/was. As has now been made abundantly clear to everyone, while trades are being sought for Tracy, Morey WILL NOT trade T-Mac for the sake of trading him, having to take back any bad contracts without getting, as he calls it, a "significant asset" in return. With the current McGrady situation having taken such a turn for the worse, it is becoming increasingly likely that if a "significant asset" cannot be acquired, Morey will either (a) trade him for multiple expiring contracts and a decent player or (b) just let his deal expire. In Morey's interview on 610 AM this morning, he made an interesting comment in response to a caller's question on the Rockets' salary cap situation. He said that Les Alexander and the Rockets COULD use "the full $20M or whatever it is" from McGrady's expired contract (assuming he isn't traded) to help the team as it relates to the luxury tax line. Now, this does NOT mean that they can acquire $20M worth of outside free agents (as has been explained above). What it does mean, however, is that Les Alexander may be prepared to use that money to (1) buy draft picks; (2) sign a third-tier free agent who slips through the cracks to a full MLE deal; (3) use the LLE on the best leftover free agent; and/or (4) throw in to trades this summer and next season. Bottom line: The Rockets STILL don't have any real cap room to speak of, assuming that the team wants to keep Scola and Lowry. Nothing with the current McGrady situation changes this. Letting T-Mac's contract expire will not create significant cap room, if any at all. Re-signing Tracy now appears to be off the table. The team's best options to improve for next season will be to (a) trade T-Mac for a "significant asset"; (b) in lieu of that, trade T-Mac for at least one decent player and smaller expiring contracts; (c) have Les use the extra cash that a lower team payroll, sans-McGrady, will bring in order to improve via the draft and trades; and (d) get Yao Ming back healthy. Sorry for the bump, but I thought that all the "Tracy McGrady / salary cap" issues would be better dealt with here than in 23 separate threads.
So if I am reading this right the choice is Hayes + Scola + Lowry + draft pick + MLE player + LLE player vs. 14 million dollar free agent BTW Bima is it just me or does the Andersen signing seem to be pretty stupid? Not sure what you could get with 14 million, but isnt 16.5 (14 + Andersens salary) a max caliber player?
Great post Bima. Very much appreciated. I looked into Joey Dorsey's contract information, and this is what I got. I'd think, with the Rockets signing Ariza last season, we pretty much said goodbye to acquiring a max FA.
Isnt there a loophole in there somewhere that you can first sign an outside free agent with the money available, and sign your own free agents later, even if that means going over the salary cap, because of bird rights?
