The Myth of the Rockets and 2010 Free Agency

The real myth of 2010 is that Lebron/Wade/Bosh/Amare will be free agents in 2010.


http://www.nba.com/bulls/news/smith_090309.html

A direct question to BimaThug, since he's good great input on this. What kind of damage can we do in 2011?

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Here is the post by BimaThug

As it stands now, the Rockets have total guaranteed 2010-11 salary commitments of approximately $37.6M to seven players (Yao, Battier, Ariza, Andersen, Brooks, Taylor, Budinger). I am assuming that Joey Dorsey's "partially guaranteed" 2010-11 salary is guaranteed for $0, which may or may not be the case. Also, I am estimating on Taylor's and Budinger's salaries being about $850k next year. I don't know the exact figures, but it won't materially alter the bottom line.

With the Rockets expected to finish the 2009-10 season with a significantly worse regular season record than they did in 2008-09, it looks like the salary scale for the Rockets' eventual first round draft pick will be higher. For the sake of this illustration, let's say that the Rockets barely miss the playoffs and end up with the #13 overall pick. The scale salary for the #13 pick in the 2010 NBA Draft is $1,599,300. However, most first rounders end up signing for the maximum permitted salary of 120% of the scale amount. In this case, that amount would be $1.92M. This would bring the Rockets' total guaranteed salary commitments to approximately $39.5M. Yes, if the Rockets make the playoffs, the salary scale for their pick would go down; but since the Rockets don't expect to be seeded very high, this should not make a material difference. This pick would make eight players for the Rockets at this point.

Now, add in the team option on Carl Landry for only $3M. This decision should be VERY interesting in and of itself. With the underlying assumption that the team wants to retain Landry, if the Rockets truly value their 2010 cap room, they'll exercise his option; but they'll be letting Landry become an unrestricted free agent in 2011. If Landry blows up next year and looks to be emerging as a "Paul Millsap-type" building block, the Rockets might actually consider NOT picking up the option, letting Carl become a RESTRICTED free agent in 2010 (but with a cap hold of $4.5M), re-signing him on the cheap (albeit for more than $3M in 2010-11), and possibly saving several million dollars over the life of Carl's next contract. But, for simplicity's sake, let's just say the Rockets just exercise the team option for $3M. Since I think it's a no-brainer that Landry is back no matter what, this brings the minimum in guaranteed salary commitments now up to $42.5M. That's now nine players.

For purposes of this update, I will make the (ludicrous) assumptions that the Rockets (A) renounce their rights to ALL of Tracy McGrady (gigantic cap hold), Luis Scola ($6.77M cap hold) and Kyle Lowry ($6.1M cap hold); (B) fail to pick up the ~$2.3M team option on Chuck Hayes; and (C) waive Joey Dorsey and his partially guaranteed salary (~$947k, and I'm making the friendly assumption that it is guaranteed for $0). So all of these players are gone for the sake of maximizing the Rockets' cap room.

Since the above players/picks don't add up to twelve (12), their is a roster charge imposed on the Rockets' cap space equal to the 2010-11 rookie minimum of $473,604 for every open roster spot up to 12. Since the Rockets only have nine players at this point, the roster charges will total over $1.42M and will bring the Rockets' total MINIMUM cap figure to $43.92M.

According to the infamous league memo sent out to all 30 NBA teams last July (as further noted in the Marc Stein article referenced above), the salary cap is expected to drop next year from the current figure of $57.7M down to about $53.6M, or possibly as low as $50.4M. According to the article, even the most optimistic GMs expect the cap to be at around that $53.6M figure. Many others are expecting something closer to the $50.4M scenario. So, for purposes of figuring the Rockets' maximum cap room, we'll assume the "rosier" scenario of a $53.6M salary cap.

With all that said, with the Rockets essentially making EVERY possible decision with an eye towards maximizing their cap room, given the drop in next year's salary cap, they will not have more than about $9.68M. That's it. And that's with no T-Mac, no Scola, no Lowry, no Hayes. Not even $10M. I suppose that the Rockets could possibly decline their option on Landry and let him go as well. They could also trade away a late lottery pick for "future draft considerations". Those moves would be terrible, anti-competitive maneuvers that don't strike me as something Morey would consider, especially for just the CHANCE at a major free agent. But even with these moves made, the maximum cap room for the Rockets would be about $14.6M. That's not even enough for one max free agent. And that's after saying goodbye to half the freakin' rotation just to try to maximize cap room.

Bottom line: For all those who were thinking about the Rockets being an attractive destination for major free agents, you may need to reconsider your position carefully. Yes, the Rockets still could open up cap room by trading Shane Battier (a move that I'm starting to come around to, as much as I love Shane, although I see that move bringing in better value is made around the 2010 NBA Draft). No, the team CANNOT create more cap room just by trading Tracy McGrady, since he's an expiring contract himself anyway; although T-Mac could possibly be traded for a valuable player with a longer term deal. But it's looking like the Rockets would be well-advised to re-sign Scola and Lowry (possibly even T-Mac) and to pursue free agents using their MLE and LLE.

 

As in, KEVIN DURANT!


No chance

 

Bima.. thanks a lot the clarification..

one request.. can you just write an article titled "nba salary rules for dummies" highlighting the main points.. it will be realllyyy helpful for me and many others on this board

 

you created a thread as a reply to a post on another thread?

 

Im not sure what the heck I just read. Anybody want to do my taxes this year?

 

I agree, and it's precisely because "2011 is a LOOONG way away" that I do. NBA teams don't make 2011 plans unless they have no hope to make an effective move in 2009 or 2010. It's not good business for teams to make fans wait a couple of years for a chance at having a good product unless it's necessarry (for example: Knicks the last couple of years). The Rocket are not in that mode.

 

BimaThug,

Do you see a trade possibility for Bosh? We have all kind of players for the trade, and I really do not think Bosh wants to stay in a cool city for anther 6-7 years. A thought.

 

Actually teams do make plans that far ahead. The spurs dumped nazr and other because they knew someone would offer manu good money. Denver offered him 9m per and they matched quickly. The really good teams always think a couple of years in advance, but i see you're point.

I know people will not agree with me a nd think i'm making stuff up, but i think this is part of the reason they want tracy healthy and see what he has. They know the unlikely prospects of landing a big time free agent and tracy might be their best choice at a reduced rate. I really believe that if tracy was the distraction and headache people are making him out to be, why would they care so much about him being healthy?

 

i actually agree with that....everyone is quick to say he's done here, but best case scenario for the team has always been tmac coming back healthy so he can be re-signed. The chances of us getting anything like him in a trade are very slim and we won't have enough money to attract someone at that level either.

 

Follow my lead and one day you will be legendary like myself

 

I agree with your take on TMac up to a point -- but I think he *is* a distraction and a headache, and believe that Morey is going to weigh those factors into his decision on whether or not to trade him (along with his current health, remaining ability, injury history, etc.). But you may be right in that Tracy could very well end up staying with the team because, all things considered, he might represent our best option next summer. Then there's the problem of convincing him to sign a short-term contract for less that half of what he's making now...

 

McGrady himself isn't a distraction but the various media sources and rumors that follow him are. His lack of elegance in dealing with the media plays into it but he himself probably gets along fine with the other players and right now, the only ones probably worried about his return are Ariza and Battier because one or both of them will get their minutes cut. But even then, I am sure Ariza would like to get more then 3 minutes of rest a night, especially on back to back games.

 

My impression was that the Spurs got rid of Nazr Mohammed because his play was rather subpar especially considering his salary. I think he was being pushed out of the rotation toward the end of his tenure there anyway. The move was not made for a distant future, but for the present as well.

Yes, I agree good teams do think ahead -- and the Rockets was likely "thinking ahead" when opting for the younger Ariza over the older Artest- but they don't put all (or most of) their eggs in the "Free Agent sweeps 2-3 years from now" basket like the Knicks have done over the last couple seasons. It's one thing to make sure you have enough money to retain your core players, it's quite another to stay in a holding pattern for the HOPE of signing someone else's free agent.

 

His play was solid, but they had their eyes on a cheaper guy in either elson and was bringing oberto over. They didn't want to get caught like the warriors when they failed to move salary in order to sign arenas.

I do agree that the knicks are playing the bulls after jordan card and just lie the bulls, they may get stuck with ron mercer type of guy. Even if they don't get one of those big name guys, which i don't think they will, they can absorb a salary. Problem is, they don't have enough good young players to start. When they started this plan, they shouldve been stockpiling good young players. I like lee,chandler, gallanari, and robinson, but thats not enough. Now what they might also do is get a couple of 2nd wave type guys that can help and hit it out the park with the draft pick, but i think they gave that away to utah. Oh well.

 

Thanks,

It looks like we will not get any star player in next year. J.J. in Atlanta likely will stay since his team is doing good.

 

I'm sure Bosh likes Toronto very much, but it hurts his marketability as a star. Playing next to Yao Ming, of course, would only help that.

Plus, how much does Bosh pay in income taxes in Toronto? How much would he pay in Houston?

You could probably get Bosh now for Scola and Landry, but how thin would that leave us? I'm sure we would like to offer Scola and Battier, but is that enough?

How about McGrady, Scola, and Lowry for Bosh, Reggie Evans, and Jarrett Jack? You'd be giving the Raptors Scola plus some financial relief, plus whatever McGrady can do as a bonus.

 

To summarize Bima's thesis for dummies like myself:

The Rockets will NOT have enough cap room to sign a big name FA at market value as long as Yao is on contract with us, and letting Yao walk is as likely as zero unless (God forbid) he retires due to unrepairable injuries.

So our prospects of getting a superstar caliber player is either through trade (robbing some poorly managed team) or through getting a high draft pick... or by praying that McGrady will come back 100% and stop pissing off his coach.

 

I think if we get Bosh it will be Scola, Battier, Lowry and Hayes.