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The Myth of the Rockets and 2010 Free Agency

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by BimaThug, May 9, 2009.

  1. DaDakota

    DaDakota Balance wins
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    That is a very interesting point and spot on...

    Truthfully, I wish Yao would have stepped up and led, but this year, obviously that is not the case.

    Interesting thought though.

    Re: Tmac and his 6 assists per game:

    That requires him to have the ball every possession, it will not happen this year, Brooks will be triggering the offense now....

    DD
     
  2. BimaThug

    BimaThug Resident Capologist
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    There is a middle ground here, which I have mentioned several times before: trading Shane AFTER this season. I have to agree more with smuduffy here regarding Battier being as good a glue guy as there is in the league. If the Rockets are going to make the playoffs this season, they CANNOT lose Battier. That is, unless he is part of a trade package for another All-Star.

    Shane is my absolute favorite player, so it makes me sick every time I have to even THINK about trading him. But I also am a realist. While I don't share leebigez's view that Battier is "declining" (sure, he's on the wrong side of 30, but his skill set is such that he will be able to utilize those skills well into his 30s, much like Bruce Bowen had done), the addition of Ariza, T-Mac returning to the lineup, and the Rockets' supposed attempt to add another All-Star to the lineup all factor against Shane's over $7M salary counting against the Rockets' cap next year.

    So, if the Rockets need Shane to make the playoffs THIS season but don't need him on their cap for NEXT season, the logical solution would be to attempt to trade him after this season. If the Rockets end up making the playoffs this year, my guess is that they get a decent amount of press as the "scrappy, overachieving team led by Rick Adelman and hustle guys like Shane Battier". Battier might be as valuable as ever as a "missing piece". Just as important, by this point, Shane will be entering the final year of his contract, so teams looking to contend without ruining their long-term cap picture would be very interested in Battier's contract. If they trade him to a team under the cap and looking for the same type of leadership that Shane had given the Rockets this year (think OKC or a similar team), perhaps they could get some pretty good draft considerations while opening up more cap room.

    But one thing to consider in all of this is the bottom line effect of "dumping" Battier's salary. Doing so will not magically open up a ton of cap room unless the team ALSO dumps Scola, Lowry and Hayes. Even then, the Rockets would not necessarily be able to offer a guy like Bosh or Joe Johnson as much as some other teams with more cap room. And, again, it would only be for the CHANCE at these guys. Meanwhile, if the Rockets KEEP Scola and/or Lowry, dumping Battier's salary will not create much more cap room than the Rockets would otherwise have by simply keeping everyone and using the MLE. That is why it might not make much sense to trade Battier simply for the sake of dumping his salary off the 2010-11 books. It would probably need to be in a larger package to acquire another All-Star.
     
  3. MiddleMan

    MiddleMan Member

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    Tmac when healthy should come of the bench, with lowry and landry. Not bad for a 2nd team. He wil get his touches in the 2nd unit but not with brooks and scola.
     
  4. t_mac1

    t_mac1 Member

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    that's not a bad idea. unfortunately, scola isn't getting ANY touches right now and we have to fix that.

    the thing is with adelman's rotation, minutes aren't set. the only player who has played big minutes in all 3 games is aaron brooks. so even if you put tmac with the 2nd unit, it's not likely that he'll play with the 2nd unit guys primarily. he'll play a ton with brooks (lowry and brooks play together a lot) anyways.

    i think the brooks/tmac combo is going to be killer. one provides that speed, the other provides that high/mid post presence. then you can always go to scola in the low post (hopefully he'll get it going soon). this offense is going to be VERY diverse and unpredictable. it's going to be fun to watch.
     
  5. MiddleMan

    MiddleMan Member

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    The brooks and lowry combo scares me, I still believe we need a third pg, to learn the system in case the injury bug hits. We need to some what limit brooks minutes, so he wont get burn out.
     
  6. mdrowe00

    mdrowe00 Member

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    I don't mean to direct this at you personally, DD....

    ...but I don't really see why McGrady (God-willing he is healthy and sane), wouldn't put up comparable assist numbers to his career averages in this offense. The key is whether or not plays begin with McGrady handling the ball, with the defense reacting only to him. In a motion, or read-and-react offense, there will be plenty of opportunities for people to score. We've all pointed out the need for McGrady to handle the ball as an offensive initiator less often than he has had to in the past.

    What we aren't as certain of, is whether or not other people can consistently convert offensive opportunities. I don't see McGrady as much of a hindrance to this, particularly if the team has its own level of success and confidence without relying on him (and later, Yao Ming) to be the sole offensive playmakers and finishers for the Rockets.

    Most people think the ball will "stop" when it reaches McGrady. I disagree. I have seen several occasions (with Von Wafer last season, for instance) where McGrady has gotten upset with his teammates because of their tendency to stop moving simply because he has the basketball.

    There's certainly more than a few habits by all concerned that need to be broken, but the idea is to continue moving and make yourself available to score, no matter where the basketball is. McGrady would have to do as much moving and cutting as everyone else, of course. But there is little if any evidence that McGrady would not pass the basketball to an open teammate if the opportunity presents itself.

    And the better the teammates are at finishing, the more likely it is that McGrady passes to them. Simply having the ball in your hands doesn't make you a good or willing or unselfish passer. From what I've seen of McGrady's instincts regarding passing the basketball, more people with the ability to score would hardly be a deterrent to him passing to anybody else.

    What McGrady has to accept is his role as one of those finishers, in varied spots on the floor, and at the end of close games. If McGrady is still here and he is playing well, he'll have the ball in his hands to close games more often than not.

    The two biggest problems with that in the past, in my opinion, have been teammates who were, at best, suspect offensively, and McGrady himself too often triggering the offense from 25 feet away from the basket, which lent itself too often to McGrady "settling" for long jumpshots, or for defenses packing the lane and encouraging that jumpshot.

    I've noticed that Aaron Brooks is especially keen of McGrady noticing his willingness to be one of those players who can make things happen at the end of games. That's the kind of moxie I remember Sam Cassell and Cuttino Mobely having. The kind of moxie that you need to win.

    McGrady complaining about his "touches" (which is where I know this particular arguement about McGrady comes from), stems as much as anything from the role McGrady's played for most of his time here. And part of what I feel could help McGrady develop the mindset of a closer is to become more offensive-minded, instead of playmaker-minded.

    The Rockets haven't needed anything from McGrady as much as they've needed him to score points, or manufacture offense when the team struggled. McGrady doesn't have a sense for when to do that, to me, so anyone feeling he's cost the Rockets playoff games because he's been in a no-man's land of taking a shot or passing to somebody else who was going to miss gets my understanding, if not my acceptance.

    McGrady will make good plays more often than not. He just needs to focus on making the SCORING plays. I believe Aaron Brooks may become more of that offensive facilitator that both Yao and McGrady have lacked sooner than later....

    ...and I think we may all be surprised at how many assists are available to go around....
     
  7. Cohete Rojo

    Cohete Rojo Member

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    Why is it that teams like Boston, New York and Dallas have $80 million invested in their roster, were over the sallary cap and still able to sign the league's best free agents? New York has paid $20+ million the last four years in salary tax and they are expected to sign LBJ to the largest contract in sports history. I think the Rockets just don't have the money to take the gamble and sign guys like Kidd, Garnett, Allen and LBJ to very large contracts.
     
  8. BimaThug

    BimaThug Resident Capologist
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    To answer your questions, the reason that those teams have so much in salary commitments is because they made several trades in which they took on additional salary. Also, they signed some of their players to huge contracts using their Bird rights. To answer your examples:

    --Dallas got Kidd because they (1) drafted Devin Harris, (2) eventually signed Harris to a large contract, and (3) later packaged Harris and other contracts to obtain Kidd's enormous contract. When Kidd hit free agency last summer, the Mavs had his Bird rights and was able to re-sign him without regard to the salary cap.

    --Boston got Garnett by trading a TON of young talent to Minnesota (Al Jefferson, Ryan Gomes and Gerald Greene [who at the time was a bright prospect], to name a few). Boston got Allen by trading Wally Szczerbiak's enormous contract (along with the #5 overall pick) to Seattle.

    --I don't know what you mean by LBJ. Lebron was able to be re-signed by Cleveland because they had his Bird rights. He'll get paid whatever any team can afford to pay him based on its cap room (subject to the maximum salary restrictions).

    As for the Knicks, the reason they have paid so much tax is because they have made too many stupid trades and overpaid their players. But almost all of those contracts (except for Eddy Curry's and Jared Jeffries's) come off the books next summer . . . all at the same time. The Knicks won't have a guaranteed contract on its roster nearly the size of Yao's. Curry's and Jeffries's contracts add up to only a few million more than Battier's and Ariza's. The rest of their guaranteed contracts are just rookie deals. THAT is why the Knicks have more cap room for next year than the Rockets.

    Hope this answers your questions.
     
  9. Rockets4279

    Rockets4279 Member

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    Only New York and Cleveland have more room then Houston ATM.
     
  10. Rockets4279

    Rockets4279 Member

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    I'm looking at the small picture after LeBron and Cleveland then there is Wade, Bosh, New York, Houston so i'll say Morey is pretty accurate with what is going on ATM.
     
  11. BimaThug

    BimaThug Resident Capologist
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    http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/daily...=dime-091030-31

    At least seven teams have more cap room than the Rockets, and I don't think the Cavs are one of them. Sure, Cleveland can pay LEBRON more than any other team; but it doesn't have much (if any) cap room to go sign any outside free agents. The Cavs have 2010-11 salary commitments to Mo Williams, Anderson Varajeo, Delonte West, Daniel Gibson, Jamario Moon and Anthony Parker.
     
  12. Rockets4279

    Rockets4279 Member

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    Sorry i could not find it, it's not always just about the money regardless out of those seven teams how many are playoff teams next year?
     
  13. BimaThug

    BimaThug Resident Capologist
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    That's weird. Yeah, the link isn't working properly on ESPN.com. Anyway, the seven teams (in order of cap room) are:

    New Jersey
    New York
    Miami
    Chicago
    Minnesota
    Oklahoma City
    LA Clippers

    Of those, only New Jersey, New York and Miami could currently offer a max contract if the salary cap were to be set even at the league's more optimistic projection of $53.6M.
     
  14. saleem

    saleem Member

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    Can you please explain to me the significance of having major salary cap space for 2010-11? Who are the projected FA's at the time?
    Aren't Lebron,Bosh and co supposed to be scooped up by the end of 2009-10?
    Please correct me if I'm wrong.
     
  15. Rockets4279

    Rockets4279 Member

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    Call me crazy, but only Chicago is a playoff team out of those seven maybe.

    Houston is in good shape a player along side Yao with the biggest international market and no annualy tax on income living in Texas you know money is not the only thing that talks in the league.
     
  16. saleem

    saleem Member

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    The biggest problem is Yao's health,no one knows when he will be ready,how is he going to play,and how long can he last?
     
  17. Rockets4279

    Rockets4279 Member

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    Yea, but it's not nearly as big as some would think either when he comes off the books after next season.
     
  18. BimaThug

    BimaThug Resident Capologist
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    saleem, remember that 2010-11 salary commitments are what determines a team's salary cap room in the summer of 2010. Lebron/Wade/Bosh/etc. will either sign extensions with their teams this season or (more likely) will hit unrestricted free agency in July 2010, at which time they will be hotly pursued and will likely find homes (either back with their original teams or with a new team with a ton of cap room) shortly after July 8, when teams can begin to sign free agents.

    I think you may have simply gotten confused. No worries.

    Dude, have you even been reading this thread at all?!?! I agree with you that Yao's international appeal and the lack of a state income tax are two things in the Rockets' favor when it comes to free agency. But the Rockets' salary cap situation is not such that they can attract a major, max-caliber free agent AND keep even two-thirds of the current rotation.

    Of course, if you're referring to the Rockets being able to attract third-tier free agents using their MLE, then I agree with you completely. (Miami, I think, is a playoff team this year, though.)
     
  19. Rockets4279

    Rockets4279 Member

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    Thats is why i said nobody knows what is going to happen, but the rant is about how they have zero chance and nobody knows for sure it's too early to estimate predictions. I'm just saying Rockets have alot working for them despite the cap space.
     
  20. Melechesh

    Melechesh Member

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    And Sacramento.
     

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