I think we're only a couple of tweaks / trades away from clearing up enough money for a max player. I believe the rumors were correct that Morey was dangling Battier as part of a package to move into the top 5. That would've not only netted us a young stud, but also slashed payroll by a few more mil. Look for Morey to try something similar at the deadline. If we're out of contention, I guarantee Battier goes back on the block. A young talent + expiring could be had for him (something like Fernandez + Pryz) I believe. This will bump us from the 12 mil range to the 16 mil range, and into the lottery for max players.
Even with your idea of battier being traded which I think will happen, scola and lowry have cap holds of 6m per. So the magical 12m you think you have is gone in a cap hold. The best way for the rox to add quality players and we've been down the road a million times is trying to get that guy now. Tracy has value whether he plays well or not if a team wants to get rid of players and get in the sweepstakes. What I have said is Mcgrady will be resigned at a lower rate and scola and others will be used in a sign and trade scenrion after the season.
I highly doubt Battier goes anywhere. You guys are nuts. Plus McGrady may not just "come off the books". There is a very high chance he is traded even if we don't receive equal value. NBA rules are extremely complicated and some of you guys completely ignore that fact.
Stupid trade suggestions in this forum? Never! All are thought out thoroughly and numbers researched to the penny. I still think we should trade T-Mac for Oden, Roy, Aldridge, and Outlaw. The numbers work.
Lowry's max cap hold would be $4m, and Scola's max cap hold would be $6m. There's nothing certain that these max cap holds would be used instead of qualifying offers besides personal interpretations of Larry Coon's site. Even with all that, it cuts the $12.25 down to $9.25... and it goes back up if you renounce Lowry. It's very doable if you have an objective in mind, and while Morey loves his role players he knows he's going to have be aggressive in free agency. Do you really think this team has tradeable assets besides Brooks and Scola? How likely is it that Pau Gasol will be traded for nothing again? Take those percentages versus adding a piece through free agency. I disagree when you say there's a "very high chance" McGrady and his $20 million will be traded. Look at the expiring contracts the Cavs and several other teams had last year, it got them nothing relevant. Expiring contracts aren't worth what they used to be, and the Rockets know it's in their best interest to see how McGrady recuperates and try to restructure his game to help them down the road. His court vision and passing ability for his size will always give him an x-factor. NBA rules are complicated, here's a link: http://members.cox.net/lmcoon/salarycap.htm
Ronny, I like your analysis, but I want to emphasize the issue regarding the cap holds for Scola and Lowry. Take another look at the Coon's FAQs regarding cap holds. The QUALIFYING OFFER is the amount that the Rockets MUST offer Scola and Lowry in order to keep them as RESTRICTED free agents. If the Rockets failed to offer these amounts come next July 1, then Scola/Lowry would become unrestricted free agents. I think it is safe to say that each of these qualifying offers will be made (although, based on Lowry's cap hold, there is the possibility that his qualifying offer could be pulled if it was the difference in getting a major free agent). The CAP HOLD is the amount that Scola's and Lowry's salaries will count against the salary cap until they are either re-signed or waived. Scola's cap hold (as a non-first rounder making below the league average salary) is equal to 200% of his 2009-10 salary, or about $6.68M. Lowry's cap hold (as a first rounder making below the league average salary) is equal to 300% of his 2009-10 salary, or about $6.1M. These figures should reduce your cap space estimates by about $6M, leaving the Rockets (even without Battier's salary) with about $6-7M, tops, to work with if they want to keep the rest of the core together. Also, if you keep reading the thread I started (and that DD linked you to in this thread), you'll see that I did an update within the last month or so. Take a look at that and compare to your (otherwise excellent) analysis. Also, while I can't fault you for factoring it in as a probability, I just don't see Battier getting traded for something as little as an expiring contract and a later first rounder. He's too valuable to the Rockets to give him up for so little. Whether you or I disagree is irrelevant. Daryl Morey has a very high value placed on Battier, so he's not going anywhere unless a significant young talent (like a Rudy Fernandez) is coming back. An expiring contract could be used to match salaries, but the Rockets would definitely want an asset in return who would count against next year's cap to some degree, albeit likely at a lesser number than Battier's. Also, Battier's trade value may be at an all-time high come next June, especially if he can help lead the Rockets to the playoffs. At that point, he himself will become an expiring contract (in addition to the other attributes he provides). Perhaps the Rockets could get more for him then, while still increasing their cap room for that very summer. Bottom line: Your analysis is pretty good, but you did not accurately reflect the impact of Scola's and Lowry's cap holds and you seem to overestimate the likelihood of Battier being traded and for what. Nice try, though.
Coon's FAQ is great, but when it's unclear it usually best to go to the CBA iteslf. Here's the verbage from the CBA: Section 4. Determination of Team Salary. (2) (i) With respect to each Veteran Free Agent who last played for a Team who is an Unrestricted Free Agent, the Free Agent Amount (as defined in Section 4(d) below) attributable to such Veteran Free Agent. (ii) With respect to each Veteran Free Agent who last played for a Team who is a Restricted Free Agent, the greater of (A) the Free Agent Amount (as defined in Section 4(d) below) attributable to such Veteran Free Agent, (B) the Salary called for in any outstanding Qualifying Offer tendered to such Veteran Free Agent, or (C) the Salary called for in any First Refusal Exercise Notice (as defined in Article XI, Section 5(c)) issued with respect to such Veteran Free Agent. Here's section 4(d) . It defines the the "Free Agent Amount" from (i) and (ii) above. 4(d) Free Agents. Subject to Section 4(a)(2)(ii) above, until a Team’s Veteran Free Agent re-signs with his Team, signs with another NBA Team, or is renounced, he will be included in his Prior Team’s Team Salary at one of the following amounts (“Free Agent Amounts”): (1) (i) A Qualifying Veteran Free Agent, other than a Qualifying Veteran Free Agent described in Section 4(a)(1)(ii) or (iii) below, will be included at 150% of his prior Salary if it was equal to or greater than the Estimated 146 (ii) A Qualifying Veteran Free Agent following the second Option Year of his Rookie Scale Contract will be included at 250% of the player’s prior Salary if it was equal to or greater than the Estimated Average Player Salary, and 300% of his prior Salary if it was less than the Estimated Average Player Salary. (iii) A Qualifying Veteran Free Agent following the first Option Year of his Rookie Scale Contract will be included at an amount equal to the maximum Salary that the Team may pay the player using the Qualifying Veteran Free Agent Exception applicable to such player pursuant to Section 6(b)(1) below. (2) An Early Qualifying Veteran Free Agent will be included at 130% of his prior Salary, except that an Early Qualifying Veteran Free Agent following the second Season of his Rookie Scale Contract will be included at an amount equal to the maximum Salary that the Team may pay the player using the Early Qualifying Veteran Free Agent Exception applicable to such player pursuant to Section 6(b)(3) below; provided, however, that the player’s prior Team may, by written notice to the NBA, renounce its rights to sign the player pursuant to the Early Qualifying Veteran Free Agent Exception, in which case the player will be deemed a Non-Qualifying Veteran Free Agent for purposes of this Section 4(d) and Sections 6(b) and 6(h)(4) below. So for unrestricted FAs, it's the "Free Agent Amount". For restricted FAs, it's the greater of the "Free Agent Amount", the Tender Amount and the Right of first refusal amount. Hopefully that clarifies it a bit.
Why exactly should we dump Battier again? He's basically the perfect piece for a S&T; an expiring contract, great intangibles, and very, very moveable if the trading team doesn't think they can sign him. His salary alone will garner around $9M in trade value; if you pick up Chuck's option, that gets you to a maximum of $12M. The other thing I question is whether it truly is worth it to try and win it all in 2011. I'd say it's probably better than even odds that either the NFL or NBA is going to have a lockout when the next CBA is up for negotiation; and undoubtedly, the players are going to get hit very, very hard. Generally, you don't want to lock yourself into long term contracts when there's an unstable economic climate ahead; at this point, I'd put down a few grand that the age limit will go up to 20/2 years out of HS, MLE gets eliminated, and contracts won't be allowed longer than 5 years with bird rights, 4 without. The maximum contract might be uncoupled from the salary cap as well; therefore, your $16M superstar could be a KG level albatross in 2 years, and you'll also lose a prime year of the deal as well.
Thanks for clarifying on the cap holds. I looked over what Coon said but felt like teams have made FA signings in the past while using a loophole around these cap holds. I'm sure you're right but I'll look over it on Sunday. Also, this is a make or break year for Lowry. Is he anything more than a backup 1 who can defend aggressively? If he can't make things happen with the ball in his hands or make good decisions on a consistent basis, the Rockets should consider renouncing him. Yes, he can put his head down and bulldoze to the basket but he's struggled to be significant when he's faced superior competition or when he's been asked to be more than a sparkplug. For him to have a $6.1 million cap hold, IMO, just isn't worth it when the ultimate goal is pursuing a championship. So renounce Lowry, and the number goes to $13.5 million. If Dorsey doesn't show any signs of improvement or an ability to stay out of foul trouble, you renounce him as well. That puts you up around $14.5 million. These aren't magical scenario's. You'll have to be aggressive and you'll have to do some tweaking, but you put yourself in a pretty good position to pursue FA's. It may not bag you Joe Johnson, but how good would Rip Hamilton (his 3rd year isn't guaranteed) or Mike Miller look in an Adelman offense (for much less than $13 million, of course)? I think you're overestimating Battier's value in the future. I know Morey loves him, his effort on the court gives this team an identity and he's a great mentor for all the young guys, but mediocrity isn't where the Rockets are looking to settle after the disappointment of the TMac - Yao years. And you have guys like Ariza, McGrady and Budinger who really make the 3 spot crowded. I'm not as big a fan of Fernandez as everyone else on this forum (think he's discombobulated, lacks assertiveness and won't translate into the NBA), but if a Battier trade brings in some young talent I would go for it depending on the players involved. I would rather keep McGrady at a discount price knowing how valuable he can be in the playoffs, but again that depends on what our cap looks like at the beginning of the 2010 FA period. Either way, I guess we'll have to let this season play out a bit before we continue speculating. And thanks aelliott.
A couple of things here. First of all, I agree with you that if Lowry has a disappointing year, the Rockets will either renounce his rights the minute a major free agent is ready to sign with the team, or the team will attempt to low-ball him on a mid-term (3-yr.) deal. Still, my money is on Lowry having a solid (if not spectacular) season in 2009-10. Second, Dorsey's contract is partially guaranteed, so if he is waived, some of his 2010-11 salary will likely count against the salary cap. So the increase is cap space there would be minimal. In fact, if the guaranteed portion is large enough, when combined with a "roster charge" against the team salary (if the Rockets have fewer than 12 player contracts/cap holds), it is quite possible that waiving Dorsey could actually REDUCE the team's salary cap room. So, if trading Battier for an expiring contract of a player the Rockets don't intend to re-sign and renouncing their rights to Lowry would create approximately $13.5M in cap room (which I still need to take a closer look at), I just don't see the relative benefit to the Rockets here. Personally, I'd rather have: Tracy McGrady, Shane Battier, Kyle Lowry and an MLE free agent over $13.5M in cap room But maybe that's just me. . I'm not trying to say that Battier is the "be all, end all" of trade assets. I'm just saying that Daryl Morey highly values Battier and will not trade him for $0.50 on the dollar unless it is ABSOLUTELY necessary. And it most definitely will not be "absolutely necessary" to do so DURING the season. His value should increase next summer as an expiring contract. You're right that it won't skyrocket. But I never said that it would. Just that it would go up. Agreed on this. But I think you must not have watched much of Fernandez, either in Spain or last season. The kid is a winner. He's scrappy, defended fairly well for a Euro rookie (and will continue to get better), shoots the 3-ball at a high clip, and takes it to the hole with authority. He seriously reminds me of Ginobili (and no, not because he's a "Euro" player - and I know Ginobili is from Argentina, but you get my drift). I seriously think that Rudy will have a nice career as a "near All-Star" caliber player. Probably won't make any All-Star Teams, but he'll be widely regarded as in that next tier. Again, you touch on the whole "let's see what McGrady does and that might affect our cap/free agency" strategy. But why dump Battier when you could simply re-sign McGrady AND keep Battier. To cut off that option is fairly short-sighted. I seriously doubt that Morey shares this view with you.
i'm with you on this one Bima. mostly because giving up all of those players won't even get us enough space to offer a max contract, thus no big name FA. the rockets have one of the best supporting casts in the league. as well as one of the deepest teams in the league. i'd rather build on that then lose it all for one player who won't be lebron, wade, bosh, or amare. re-signing tmac for a reduced salary, and not breaking the bank for scola will get us off to a good start. add what should be a pretty decent draft pick, then an MLE FA, and the team should be stacked enough to acquire an all star level player with a 2-for-1 or a 3-for-1 trade.
I don't us making alot of team changing moves, we should be set at most positions unless the Rockets plan on dealing T-Mac (or he plans on leaving for better water).
Bima, McGrady isn't T-Mac anymore and isn't likely to settle for a small contract either, if he makes a successful comeback. Tracy will go the highest bidder if he does well,otherwise he might end up ala Iverson or in a worst case scenario like Francis. A Yao Ming,McGrady, Battier,plus another MLE/1st round pick plus the rest aren't likely to get us to a championship even if they overachieve. Yao might not be able to make it through an entire season,and Tracy has a lot a mileage on his 30 yr old body,plus mental/emotional instability. Battier shouldn't be dumped,but he shouldn't be held onto during this season,if we can get some really good young role player for him.
DM already promised in an interview a couple weeks ago that we will get an elite level player one way or another, outright saying that tmac will show that he can return to all-star level or his contract will be traded.....i believe the exact wording was "otherwise we have the trade assets to get that elite player we need to compete for a championship"... so my guess is he already has a few trade scenarios lined up if tmac's explosion is gone and he looks done... as far as battier, on one hand ariza replaces him perfectly......on the other hand everything they say implies that they want him to retire a rocket....
I'd say they are still counting on McGrady and Yao duo. They belive the can get healthly Yao next year and that after that surgery he is not gonna go down again. In my opnion they also belive in T-Mac and will want to resign him after that season. In my opinion, that's why he is still not practicing. They want to make sure he comes back fully healthly from that injury and will have no setbacks in the future because they still want to build around Yao and Mac.
That's his wish. Making it happen,is something else. DM is a smart guy,but this is just GM talk. No one in their right mind,is going to give us a star for an injured McGrady,otherwise he would been long gone. Even if he does well,and is traded we are far more likely to end up with players with long contracts ala Maggette or S.Jackson who won't fit well here. It's also possible that another team might want a player like Scola with him too. Pau Gasol like trades don't happen very often. What probably won't happen is a deal that hurts us.
IMO Pritchard won't make that trade. He won't give up Fernandez or Batum. His rep is to trade garbage for an asset.
you are probably right that this is their most wanted scenario. but we won't know anything for sure about tmac until he gets into nba games and produces at a high level for at least a few weeks uninterrupted. even last year he single-handedly won games for us (like at phoenix) and then went limp just a week later unable to even run down the court. in such a case reoccurring this season we would have to assume DM will be shipping that contract out for some sort of all-star in return before the trade deadline...
