I diagreed strongly about your above two points 1. Yao at age 30 and coming back after a serious injury may not command a max contract - if Yao is just another NBA player. However he is not. you are looking at Yao based on his Basketball life. you failed to look at the economy side of Yao. Since Rockets has acquired Yao, Les has been making mega profits from sponsors. How many NBA star are there that can command such attention? Yao was named Forbes riches athlete of the World, even beating out tiger woods. Think Rockets didn't get their fair share of it? Any team would kill to offer Yao max contract just for the types of income he would bring to the team. 2. FA - Morey will and would go after any super-star that is available and willing to signed and play for Rockets. Id morey going to tell everyone that he is going to get Lebron or wade if they are interested in playing for the rockets? Cap? that's not a problem. They will do whatever they can in order to bring that super star in with Yao Why can't they do it sooner? Yao has reach his debacle point of his NBA life. He doesn't have much left in terms of being a cash cow before winning a championship. Look at Shaq, he's a former hallow of himself, but people still regard him as one of the best center today. Why? because he got rings. Looking back to the Rockets Yao-Tmac should of at least won two rings. because of the injuries they got none.
Rockets' Salary Cap Space: 2010 Offseason I really don't understand why everyone thinks the Rockets won't have the cap space to land a marquee FA next season. Maybe it's just DD influencing everyone with his need for recognition via repetition, but it couldn't be farther from the truth. Consider Battier gone. Yes he's the vocal leader of this team but Trevor Ariza was brought in for a reason. The Rockets drafted two players capable of playing the 3 for a reason. Battier is going to be traded for an expiring contract and change (hopefully a late 1st draft pick) at the trade deadline. His work ethic and demeanor have played a huge role in shaping the identity of this team but if the Rockets are going to take the next step they need to put his salary into other resources. Guaranteed Contracts (End of 2009-10 season): Yao Ming: $17,686,000 Trevor Ariza: $6,322,320 Luis Scola: $4,105,834 Carl Landry: $3,000,000 Kyle Lowry: $2,975,165 David Anderson: $2,500,000 Aaron Brooks: $2,016,691 Joey Dorsey: $947,140 Chase Budinger: $780,871 Jermaine Taylor: $780,871 _______________________ Total: $41,114,892 The Rockets can hold off on resigning Scola and Lowry and match any offers made to them as they are restricted FA's, but their qualifying offers still count against the salary cap: McGrady and Chuck Hayes will be unrestricted FA's. This makes it easy for the Rockets to renounce their salaries (so they won't count against the cap) and leave them hanging while they pursue a marquee free agent. I really don't see large contracts being available for McGrady, even if his comeback is better than we expect it to be. His best case scenario is taking whatever small amount the Rockets offer him and attempting to prove his haters wrong... after he cashed in $40 million to do nothing over 2 seasons. And he's not as sadistic as Alonzo Mourning who left the Heat for the Nets in a similar situation. In terms of what the Salary Cap will look like: Spoiler Despite the economy I don't see the Salary Cap dropping to an absurd amount like $51-52 million. When all is said and done it should be around $54-55 million. Let's consider the cap dropping all the way to $54 million. That gives the Rockets $54 - 41.11 = $12.89 - miscellaneous expenses = $12.25 million. $12.25 million to spend in Free Agency. And it might be more if Morey does some tweaking to ensure the Rockets have the best chance at getting a marquee FA, or the Salary Cap is closer to the previous year. And the Rockets can always "backload" the contract to their maximum benefit. With the following options available: Unrestricted 2009-2010 free agents: Joe Johnson Ray Allen Manu Ginobili Marcus Camby Tracey McGrady Shaquille O'Neal Brad Miller Stephen Jackson Jermaine O'Neal Mike Miller Rip Hamilton Players who can opt out of their contracts to become unrestricted FA's: Amare Stoudamire (owed 17.7 million in 10/11) LeBron James (owed 17.2 million in 10/11) Dwayne Wade (owed 17.0 million in 10/11) Chris Bosh (owed 17.1 million in 10/11) Dirk Nowitzki (owed $21.5 million in 10/11) Josh Howard (owed $11.8 million in 10/11) Mike Redd (owed $18.3 million in 10/11) Tyson Chandler (owed $12.8 million in 10/11) So while I don't expect Wade or LeBron to be reasonable, I think it's possible the Rockets can be a strong player in the FA market given Morey's recruiting skills. Joe Johnson and Chris Bosh are the best scenarios IMO.
which marquee player do you think we can land with 12ish million? that doesnt seem like enough to land a true marquee player.
You have to look at what a player will get over the length of his entire contract... and what the market is willing to pay him. The Rockets can easily renounce a player like Lowry if they have an inside edge to a FA and gain an additional $3 million. That gives them around $15.25 million with the option to back load a contract. Bosh and Johnson will have been in the league for 7-9 years, so if they are offered MAX contracts they will start at 30% of the cap, which I think will be around $16 million next year. Not a big difference.
I didn't say we have no money, just that we won't have as much as people think. And not Max money. That is why I hope they flip McGrady into younger assets...and picks. And your entire premise is built around Battier being traded....which is completely a guess. In addition Bima has an excellent thread discussing this very topic, which explains it a million times better than I could. DD
Could you link me to Bima's thread? Battier is going to be traded, the Rockets gain nothing from keeping him past the adjustment period over the next 4-5 months. The Rockets need McGrady to come back for peanuts. His passing and court vision is unparalleled in the playoffs, and his shot selection can only improve.
Hard thing to do,even with insurance paying part of his contract,provided if he doesn't play. No one wants to give much for his expiring contract. Once Tracy gets on the court,as it appears likely for now,that insurance payment may not apply. Then he will have to perform really well,to become a true trade asset. Teams will still balk at giving up too much for him,and are more like to move players with long contracts who may not necessarily fit well with the young guys. He is guessing about Battier,but it's not a bad idea,although I would like to see if we can get a younger player plus an expiring contract for him instead of a late 1st rounder.
It's well written, but times have changed since May... I'm also skeptical of Bima's interpretation of the cap hold when calculating Scola and Lowry's effect on the salary cap(http://members.cox.net/lmcoon/salarycap.htm#Q30), which are significantly higher than the qualifying offers based on previous year salaries of $3.2 million and $2 million respectively. But that's a grey area, hopefully Bima can clarify.
If the Rockets don't have the cap space in 2010 then maybe they'll have it in 2011. In any case, lack of 2010 cap space is not a justification for acquiring some semi washed up or overpaid star. Quit trying to dump your problems on our team! And 99% of these stupid trade suggestions fall into that category.
The Rockets will have money but like other teams... They will have to make some transactions to get more money coming off the books to sign a max player. And out of those many quote on quote "max players", how many of them would be willing to come to the Rockets? Not many. Not only that, If Yao is the player that the Rockets want to build around, you don't need to get a Maxplayer for the power forward spot. It wouldn't work out in their best interest. Having Yao and Chris Bosh/Amare would really clog up the middle... The best thing right now is to wait and see what the Rockets do with T-Mac.
Haven't Morey and Les so much have said that they would be willing to excceed the luxury cap if it they could add a piece to put on the court a bonafide contender? So my thinking is this... We WILL make a significant run at LeBron or Wade. So if we DO have 12 mill to spend (the Shane scenario is a bit shaky, although I think he should be gone after this season), and we offer LeBron or Wade 20 mill, that would put us 8 million over the cap, meaning we are paying 8 million in Luxury tax. So the question is this "Is LeBron or Wade worth 28 million a year?" I would like to think that Les and Morey think so and they would be justified in this thinking. Here's why: 1. Winning teams make money and bring out fans, picking one of these guys up would make us BONAFIDE contenders. 2. The Rockets are are making a boat load of money in the Asian Market 3. James or Wade would bring in 8-million in endorsements alone. Please let me know if I am flawed in this thinking.
I say we tank and go for the lottery. That appears to be the easiest path to adding a quality player.
Tanking is deliberately losing games, which I am against, but if you mean the Rockets should avoid the band aid approach and develop their younger players, then I wholeheartedly agree. Unless there is some sort of Hoosiers type miracle, the Rockets are not making the playoffs and almost certainly wouldn't get out of the first round even if they did. For me, I'd rather have a top five pick than watch the team getting bounced in four straight loses.
If McGrady is somewhat healthy for most of the season, I think the Rockets make the playoffs in the 7th or 8th seed. Granted, many probably would consider it a miracle.
Hmmm. I don't know, doesn't seem very promising. I think we will get something better back in a big McGrady trade...
Whether it really is 200% of the previous season's salary or the qualifying offer, I'm not sure. The Rockets want to build around Yao but not as their sole hope. In terms of what he's capable of and his injury history, it just isn't realistic to expect them not to go after the best available player. It's either that or a plethora of undersized role players expected to overachieve night in and night out. However Scola is a huge part of this team so we'll have to watch how he plays this season. You saw how dangerous the Rockets looked when Scola and Yao played off of each other against the Blazers. Now imagine a longer, more athletic version alongside Yao. Yeah, it's flawed. =/ You can't go over the cap on offers to FA's from other teams when you have cap space, and if you don't have cap space you can only use exceptions (the highest would be the MLE at $5.8 million).
